Will AI Change Hollywood Forever?人工智能会永久改变好莱坞吗？

With the rise of AI-led services to write， voice and provide effects， industry experts express concern over the future.

随着人工智能驱动的编剧、配音和特效服务的兴起，业内专家对未来表示担忧。

What will AI （artificial intelligence） do to Hollywood？ Who better to answer that question than ChatGPT， a thrilling but scary chatbot developed by OpenAI. When the Guardian asked it about AI’s potential impact on the film industry， it made the following points：

人工智能会对好莱坞产生怎样的影响？没有谁比OpenAI公司开发的令人既兴奋又恐惧的聊天机器人ChatGPT更合适回答这个问题。当《卫报》就人工智能对电影行业的潜在影响询问ChatGPT时，它提到如下几点：

1. Scriptwriting： AI can be used to analyze existing screenplays and create new ones， potentially leading to more efficient and cost-effective1 screenwriting.

1. 编剧：人工智能可用于分析现有的剧本并创作新剧本，因此编剧会更高效、更具成本经济效益。

2. Pre-production： AI can be used to streamline the pre-production process， including casting， location scouting and storyboarding2.

2. 前期制作：人工智能可用于简化前期制作流程，包括选角、选景和绘制情节串连图板。

3. Special effects： AI can be used to create more realistic and immersive special effects， potentially reducing the need for practical effects and saving time and money in post-production.

3. 特效：人工智能可用于创建更逼真和身临其境的特效，能减少对实景镜头的需求，节省后期制作时间和费用。

4. Audience analysis： AI can be used to analyze audience data and preferences， helping studios make more informed decisions about which films to greenlight and how to market them.

4. 观众分析：人工智能可用于分析观众数据和偏好，有助于制片厂做出更明智的决策，确定拍摄哪些影片以及如何进行营销。

5. Distribution： AI can be used to personalize movie recommendations for viewers and optimize distribution strategies， potentially leading to higher ticket sales and revenue.

5. 发行：人工智能可用于个性化推荐影片给观众及优化发行策略，能提高票房并增加收益。

It was a reasonable answer that did not hint at HAL 90003-style malevolence4 or Terminator-like plans for world domination. But nor did it have much to say about how AI might be a disruptive force for actors （dead or alive）， audiences， screenwriters， the principle of intellectual property or the fundamental art of storytelling.

上述回答还算合理，因为并未暗示会出现HAL 9000式的恶煞或终结者式的称霸世界图谋。不过，对于人工智能有多大可能会成为颠覆性力量，冲击演员（无论是否在世）、观众、编剧、知识产权准则或基本叙事技巧，ChatGPT也鲜有提及。

When the Guardian turned to human interviewees， they offered a more ambivalent5 set of predictions.

当《卫报》转而询问人类受访者时，他们的预测则更为矛盾。

Ben Mankiewicz， a primetime6 host of Turner Classic Movies （TCM） and grandson of Herman Mankiewicz， who co-wrote the 1941 classic Citizen Kane， has just been experimenting with ChatGPT. “I signed up for a week and asked it to write a TCM introduction for Citizen Kane，” he says by phone from Los Angeles.

本·曼凯维奇是特纳经典电影频道黄金档的主持人，也是1941年问世的经典影片《公民凯恩》的联合编剧赫尔曼·曼凯维奇的孙子。他刚试用过ChatGPT。“我曾注册使用一星期，要求它为特纳经典电影频道撰文介绍《公民凯恩》。”他在洛杉矶的电话那头说。

But how does Mankiewicz， 55， feel about the idea of AI writing an entire film script？ “While it’s exciting， of course it’s disturbing. I find it very hard to believe that it’s ever going to get the humanity that makes a screenplay great.

但55岁的曼凯维奇对人工智能编写一整部电影剧本有什么看法呢？“这固然令人兴奋，却也让人不安。我很难相信人工智能会具有创作杰出剧本所需的人性特质。

“I’m worried but I don’t want to sound reactionary. It’s probably mostly useful if it gets a creative person who finds the blank page daunting to think， ‘Oh， all right， here’s some pages， here’s some ideas.’”

“我虽担心，但又不想让人觉得我因循守旧。如果人工智能让对着空白页面发怵的创作者心想‘哦，不错，这几页写得还行，这些想法不错’，那多半就有用。”

But some screenwriters are already worried about how far the AI revolution might go. Marc Guggenheim， who has numerous film and TV credits and is also author of the LegalDispatch newsletter， sees both promise and peril in the technology.

但一些编剧已开始担忧人工智能革命会发展到什么程度。创作了众多影视作品的马克·古根海姆同时还是《法律报道》简报的作者，他认为这项技术既带来希望也带来风险。

He says： “Right now I don’t think AI is ready for primetime in terms of being able to write scripts or craft stories but I see a world where it absolutely will be able to do that. It probably will be a real threat to writers down the road.

他说：“我认为，目前人工智能尚未具备为黄金档节目创作脚本或编排剧情的能力。但我预料有朝一日它绝对能行。往后它很可能会对编剧构成真正的威胁。”

“Who’s to say that ChatGPT won’t be ready in very short order7 to do a pass on a script， revisions on a script？ They could even say： ‘Do a set of revisions in the style of Aaron Sorkin.’”

“谁说ChatGPT无法在极短时间内对剧本进行审阅、修改呢？你甚至可以要求：‘按艾伦·索金的风格做一番修改。’”

The tech industry is notoriously male dominated and AI is no different. Guggenheim， 52， comments： “Where is the AI getting its information to be programmed and is that information only coming from a certain subset of society？ If it’s going to tell stories from the perspective of its programmers， essentially， then you have to worry about the lack of diversity among the programmers.”

众所周知，科技行业由男性主导，人工智能也不例外。52岁的古根海姆评论说：“人工智能从何处获取编程所需的信息？此类信息是否仅仅来自社会某一分支群体？如果基本上是从程序员的角度叙事，那么你得担心程序员缺乏多样性。”

Writers are not the only ones facing potential upheaval8. The voices of celebrity chef Anthony Bourdain and artist Andy Warhol were posthumously recreated by AI in the documentaries Roadrunner and The Andy Warhol Diaries. Actor James Earl Jones has given his approval for AI to use early Darth Vader9 recordings to replicate his voice in future Star Wars series.

可能面临剧变的不只是编剧。在纪录片《跑路者》和《安迪·沃霍尔：时代日记》中，已故的名厨安东尼·波登和艺术家安迪·沃霍尔的声音都是用人工智能技术复制的。演员詹姆斯·厄尔·琼斯已同意，在未来的《星球大战》系列中，由人工智能利用早期的达斯·维达原声录音来复制他的声音。

The National Association of Voice Actors， an advocacy group10， insists that it is not anti-technology or anti-AI but is calling for stronger regulation. It warns that it is increasingly hard to know when and where synthesised voices are replacing humans in audio books， video games and other media.

作为维权团体，美国全国配音演员协会坚称不反对科技和人工智能，只是呼吁加强监管。该协会提醒说，现在愈发难以知晓，在有声书籍、电子游戏和其他媒体中，合成语音在何时何处取代了真人原声。

The group’s president， Tim Friedlander， says： “The biggest concern is that we just don’t know what’s out there and there’s no way to track it and no way to find out if it’s being used.

该协会主席蒂姆·弗里德兰德表示：“最大的忧虑是，我们压根儿不知个中虚实，既无法追本溯源，也无法查出是否使用了合成语音。

“For voice actors， a lot of how we make our living is based on the licensing of our voice and so， if we have an unlicensed version of our voice working for free， then that is instantly taking work away from us and money out of our pockets and hurting our ability to make a living.”

“我们配音演员大多依靠授权使用自己的声音谋生。因此，只要未经授权免费使用我们的声音，即会抢走我们的工作，窃取我们的收入，损害我们的谋生能力。”

Joshua Glick， visiting associate professor of film and electronic arts at Bard College in Annandale-on-Hudson， New York， pointed to the benefits of AI in the 2020 documentary film Welcome to Chechnya. In Welcome to Chechnya Ryan Laney， the effects supervisor， was using deepfake technology as a way to protect the onscreen subjects to essentially create what was called ‘digital veils’ for the individuals that appear in the film.

乔舒亚·格利克是位于纽约州哈德逊河畔安南戴尔镇巴德学院的电影和电子艺术客座副教授，他指出2020年上映的纪录片《欢迎来到车臣》使用人工智能的好处。特效总监瑞安·莱尼利用深度伪造技术来保护银幕上的人物，为在该片中出镜的人员创建所谓的“数字面罩”。

“It allowed those people to communicate and engage with audiences but also to maintain their anonymity. That was one instance in the human rights context where the technology is having some impact.”

“这可让这些人与观众沟通和互动，但又保持匿名状态。这是人工智能技术在保护人权方面发挥一定作用的一个实例。”

But what if AI was able to script a sequel to Casablanca， recreate the same cast—deepfakes of Humphrey Bogart， Ingrid Bergman and co-simulate their voices and turn it into a finished film that looked convincing？ Glick is sceptical. “It creates a strange relationship between the audience and those characters in the film and the story that they’re involved in. It plunges us into the uncanny valley11.

可假如人工智能可以为电影《卡萨布兰卡》编写续集，再现同一演员阵容——亨弗莱·鲍嘉、英格丽·褒曼等人的深度伪造版，并协同仿真其声音，打造一部以假乱真的电影成片，又会怎样呢？格利克对此表示怀疑。“这会在观众与电影角色及相关剧情之间形成一种奇怪的关系，使人陷入恐怖谷。

“Our knowledge of who these people are， their personalities， what they’re like， what their families might be like， their background， what they’ve been like on set swirl around a production，” he continues. “They give the production of a film or TV show a sense of allure and intrigue and a part of what we might call the media culture today.

“我们对这些人的身份、性格、为人、家庭、出身背景和片场表现的了解围绕着作品的制作过程，”他继续说道，“使影片或电视节目的制作更具魅力、引人入胜，我们今天会把这称作传媒文化的一部分。

“What it means to follow a project as it’s unfolding， not just to watch a finished film or stream a TV show， is important. Our knowledge of the creative labour and these human dimensions of it are part of the enjoyment that spectators derive from the films and part of what makes the film and television industry distinct. It needs to do its business in public.”

“重要的是跟进项目的开展过程，而非只是观看电影成片或在线观看电视节目。对创作及其人性层面的了解是观众从电影中获得乐趣的一部分，也是令影视业独具一格的部分原因。影视业要公开化运作。”

AI could also have far reaching social and economic consequences. Olcun Tan， a German-born visual effects supervisor based in Los Angeles， says： “It reduces the prospects for people entering the workforce as an assistant or as somebody doing research to start their career. If the AI does a better job then how do people start getting into an industry to learn from ground up， to grow into a position of expertise eventually？”

人工智能还会产生深远的社会和经济影响。出生于德国、现居洛杉矶的视觉特效总监奥尔昆·坦说：“这减少了人们作为助理或研究人员开始影业生涯的可能性。如果人工智能干得更出色，那人类还怎么入行时从头学起、最终成长为行家里手？”

Tan adds： “I feel we’re creating a world like the Greeks had. They would make pilgrimages and ask the Oracle. In these temples they would have places where you put your hand in and then you would ask for your future. We’re going in that direction because AI is getting so powerful.”

坦补充说：“我觉得我们正在创建一个古希腊式的世界。古希腊人会去朝圣，乞求神谕。在神庙里某些地方，将手伸入其中，然后求问命运。我们正在向那个方向发展，因为人工智能日益强大。”

（译者为“《英语世界》杯”翻译大赛获奖者）

1 cost-effective有成本经济效益的，划算的。 2 storyboard（电影等的）剧情梗概系列图片。

3电影《2001太空漫游》中的一台超级电脑，在片中杀害了四名宇航员。 4 malevolence恶意，恶毒。 5 ambivalent矛盾的，模棱两可的。 6 primetime黄金时间，黄金档。

7 in short order立即，马上。

8 upheaval剧变，动乱。 9《星球大战》系列电影的主角之一，由詹姆斯·厄尔·琼斯配音。 10 advocacy group倡导团体，维权团体。

11 uncanny valley“恐怖谷”是日本机器人专家森政弘在1970年创造的一个术语，指随着仿真物（如机器人、玩偶等）模拟真实性程度的变化，人对其亲和力也会产生变化，一般规律是亲和力随着仿真程度增高而增加，但当仿真程度到达一个较高临界点时，人的亲和反应会陡然跌入谷底，突然会对这个仿真物产生排斥、恐惧、困惑等负面心理。