东亚金融危机：二十周年回顾与展望(笔谈)

东亚金融危机：二十周年回顾与展望(笔谈)

[主持人语] 东亚金融危机已经过去20年，但是学术界和政策层面的反思仍然在延续。危机爆发之后，东亚国家抱团取暖，积极探寻区域内货币金融合作的道路。当时，在欧元区实践的鼓舞之下，关于东亚地区货币金融合作的研究也开始涌现。但随后，由于合作缺乏实质性进展、中日两个大国关系紧张等原因，合作进程一度陷入缓慢的状态。尤其在2008年金融危机爆发之后，欧元区国家面临严重的主权债务危机，欧元区的实践也一度受到研究者和国际市场的怀疑；再加上中日双边关系的一度恶化——在上述背景下，东亚地区货币金融合作的未来也被蒙上了一层阴影。

不过近些年来，东亚区内、区外的国际环境又有所变化，一些条件开始朝着有利于东亚货币金融合作与经济一体化的方向前进。首先，2014年美联储开始宣布退出量宽，并于2015年末开始进入加息周期，与此同时日本和欧央行等多个货币当局开始实行负利率。国际金融市场形势更为复杂、脆弱，跨国资本的流动也更为剧烈和频繁。客观上，东亚区内国家抱团取暖的需要再次上升。

其次，中国与日本在世界经济、尤其是东亚一体化当中的作用发生了戏剧性的变化。2005年，中国GDP总量约为日本的一半，2010年中国在这一指标上第一次追平了日本，2014年，中国已经是日本的两倍。同时，中国也已经成为东亚绝大部分经济体的第一大贸易伙伴，人民币也在发挥着更为重要的作用。

中国已经成为东亚经济、金融合作的最重要利益相关者和推动者。与之相应，中国学者的声音也将在该领域产生越来越重要的影响。所以，我们有必要跳出既有的框架，以今天的视角，来重新审视20年前的东亚金融危机。

EastAsianFinancialCrisis:ReviewsandProspectsat20thAnniversary

[Host’sWords] The financial crisis in East Asia has passed for 20 years，but the reflection of academic and political area is still ongoing. After the crisis，East Asian countries united together for survive，and actively sought monetary and financial cooperation. At that time，encouraged by the practice of euro area，the researches on monetary and financial cooperation of East Asia began to spring up. However，the cooperation process once became slow，because of the lack of substantive progress in cooperation，the rising tension between China and Japan and other causes. Especially after the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008，the euro zone countries faced severe sovereign debt crisis；the practice of euro zone was suspected by researchers and international market；the bilateral relations between China and Japan became worse. All these resulted in a gloomy future of monetary and financial cooperation of East Asia.

However，the environment has been changed both inside and outside East Asia in recent years，some conditions have turned to contribute to the monetary and financial cooperation and economic integration of East Asia. Firstly，U.S. Federal Reserve in 2014 announced its withdrawal from QE and began to enter the interest rate cycle at the end of 2015，while Japan and the European Central Bank and many other monetary authorities began to implement negative interest rates. The situation of international financial market was more complex and fragile，and the transnational capital flow was more intense and frequent. Objectively，the need for East Asia countries to unite together has become intense again.

Secondly，the role of China and Japan has changed dramatically in the international economy，especially in the integration of East Asia. In 2005，China’s GDP was about the half of Japan’s. In 2010，for the first time，China’s GDP caught up with Japan’s. In 2014，China’s GDP was two times that of Japan. At the same time，China became the first trading partner of most economies in East Asia，and the RMB also played a more important role.

China has become the most important stakeholder and promoter of economic and financial cooperation of East Asia. Correspondingly，the voice of Chinese scholars will have more and more important influence in this field. Therefore，it is necessary for us to jump out of the existing framework，and re-examine the East Asian financial crisis 20 years ago from today’s perspective.