好运如何“从天而降”？

By Carlin Flora

在这个世界上，我们总期待自己能走运，有时候我们还会把希望寄托在某些事物上，比如说四叶草，传说能给拥有它的人带来好运。那么好运到底是从天而降、他物所予还是能刻意制造呢？让我们在这篇文章中来找答案吧。

In 1992， Archie Karas， then a waiter， headed out to1 Las Vegas. By 1995， he had turned $50 into $40 million， in what has become known as the biggest winning streak in gambling history.2 Most of us would call it an instance3 of great luck， or we might say of Archie himself： “What a lucky guy！” The cold-hearted statistician would laugh at our superstious notions， and instead describe a series of chance processes that happened to work out for Karas.4 In the larger landscape where randomness reigns， anything can happen at any given casino.5 Calling its beneficiaries lucky is simply sticking a label on it after the fact.6

To investigate luck is to take on one of the grandest7 of all questions： how can we explain what happens to us， and whether we will be winners， losers or somewhere in the middle at love， work， sports， gambling and life overall？ As it turns out， new findings suggest that luck is not a phenomenon that appears exclusively in hindsight， like a hail storm on your wedding day.8 Nor is it an expression of our desire to see patterns where none exist， like a conviction that your yellow sweater is lucky.9 The concept of luck is not a myth.

Instead， the studies show， luck can be powered by past good or bad luck， personality and， in a meta-twist10， even our own ideas and beliefs about luck itself. Lucky streaks are real， but they are the product of more than just blind fate.11 Our ideas about luck influence the way we behave in risky situations. We really can make our own luck， though we dont like to think of ourselves as lucky—a descriptor that undermines other qualities， like talent and skill.12 Luck can be a force， but its one we interact with， shape and cultivate. Luck helps determine our fate here on Earth， even if you think its ultimate cause divine13.

Luck is perspective and point of view： if a secular man happened to survive because he took a meeting outside his office at the World Trade Center on the morning of 11 September 2001， he might simply acknowledge random chance in life without assigning a deeper meaning.14 A Hindu might conclude he had good karma.15 A Christian might say God was watching out for him so that he could fulfill a special destiny in His service. The mystic could insist he was born under lucky stars， as others are born with green eyes.16

Traditionally， the Chinese think luck is an inner trait， like intelligence or upbeat mood，17 notes Maia Young， a management expert at the University of California， Los Angeles. “My mom always used to tell me， ‘You have a lucky nose， because its particular shape was a lucky one， according to Chinese lore18.” Growing up in the American Midwest， it dawned on Young that the fleeting luck that Americans often talked about19—a luck that seemed to visit the same person at certain times （“I got lucky on that test！”） but not others （“I got caught in traffic before my interview！”）—was not equivalent20 to the unchanging， stable luck her mother saw in her daughter， her nose being an advertisement of its existence within.

“Its something that I have， thats a possession of mine， that can be more relied upon than just dumb luck21，” says Young. The distinction22 stuck with her. You might think someone with a lucky nose wouldnt roll up their sle eves to work hard—why bother？—but heres another cultural difference in perceptions of luck.23 “In Chinese culture，” she says， “hard work can go hand-in-hand with being lucky. The belief system accommodates24 both.”

On the other hand， because Westerners see effort and good fortune as taking up opposite corners of the ring， they are ambivalent about luck.25 They might pray for it and sincerely wish others they care about “Good luck！” but sometimes they just dont want to think of themselves as lucky. Theyd rather be deserving26. The fact that they live in a society that is neither random nor wholly meritocratic makes for an even messier slamdance between “hard work” and “luck”.27 Case in point： when a friend gets into a top law or medical school， we might say： “Congratulations！ Youve persevered. You deserve it.” Were she not to get in， we would say： “Acceptance is arbitrary. Everyones qualified these days—its the luck of the draw.”28

1. head out to： 起身去，出发去。

2. winning streak： 连胜纪录，一连串的胜利； gambling： 赌博。

3. instance： 实例，例证。

4. 铁石心肠的统计学家们会嘲笑我们的迷信观念，在他们看来，这只是发生在卡拉斯身上的一连串偶然事件。statistician： 统计学家；superstious notion： 迷信观念；chance process： 文中指“偶然事件”；work out： 产生结果，成功。

5. 纵观由随机性主导的那些场合，任何事情都有可能在任一赌场发生。landscape： 风景，景观，文中指“场合”；randomness ： 随机性，随机事件；reign： 支配，主宰；given： 特定的，指定的；casino： 赌场。

6. beneficiary： 受益人；label： 标签。

7. grand： 大的，重要的。

8. 新的调查研究结果表明，运气并不像婚礼上突如其来的冰雹，事后才有所觉悟。exclusively： 仅仅地，专有地； in hindsight： 事后看，之后的迹象表明；hail storm： 冰雹风暴。

9. 运气也不是我们对于自身愿望的表达，即去寻求一个其实根本不存在的规则，比如坚信你的黄色毛衣能给你带来好运。conviction： 信念，主张。

10. meta-twist： meta 在希腊语里指“在……之后”，twist指重要转折和机缘，在这里meta-twist指的是某次重大转折之后。

11. 生活中确有好运当头，但是这不仅仅是天命所为。lucky streak： 一连串幸运的事，好运当头，和前面winning streak可对应；blind fate： 无法控制的命运。

12. 我们的确可以给自己制造好运，虽然我们通常不认为自己很幸运，因为这一说法本身就削弱了我们的其他品质，如天赋和技能。undermine： 削弱，损害。

13. divine： 天赐的。

14. perspective： 观点，看法；secular： 俗界的，无宗教的； assign： 分派，赋予。

15. Hindu： 印度教徒；good karma： 善报。

16. mystic： 神秘主义者，神秘主义主张从外部世界返回到内心，在静观、沉思的心理状态中与神或者某种最高原则结合；green eye： 嫉妒。

17. inner trait： 内在特征；upbeat： 乐观的，快乐的。

18. lore： 学问，传说。

19. dawn on sb.： 使某人开始理解；fleeting： 稍纵即逝的。

20. equivalent： 相等的，相当的。

21. dumb luck： 偶然的运气，也有作品中译为狗屎运。

22. distinction： 区别，差别。

23. roll up ones sleeves： 卷起衣袖（大干）；perception： 观念，看法。

24. accommodate： 容纳。

25. 另一方面，因为西方人把努力和好运看成是完全对立的，所以他们对运气的心态是矛盾的。opposite corners of the ring： 竞技场对立的两个区，这里指完全对立的；ambivalent： 矛盾的，摇摆不定的。

26. deserving： 值得的，应得的。

27. meritocratic： 贤能统治的；messy： 凌乱的；slamdance：（伴随摇滚乐）狂舞，文中引申为“摇摆不定”之意。

28. 如果她未被学校录取，我们会说：“决定是否录取是随意的，现在每个人都有资格，这要看运气。”arbitrary： 任意的，随意的；the luck of the draw： 偶然性，运气。