Stable Growth Of Foreign Trade Expected

杨晓飞

Chinas foreign trade is expected to post stable growth this year，despite unprecedented challenges，including high raw material costs and fierce competition from Southeast Asian countries， analysts and trade experts said.

The profitability of exporters in most sectors has improved during the second quarter，according to a survey by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade in Beijing. Major challenges facing foreign trade enterprises，such as high costs of logistics，have eased，the survey showed.

“It is worth noting that trade data got better not only from quarter to quarter，but also from month to month during the second quarter. June is likely to have witnessed a strong foreign trade rebound and more energetic economic recovery，”said Liu Ying，a researcher at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China.

The survey showed more than 25 percent of enterprises registered positive quarter- on- quarter revenue growth，while nearly 20 percent said they have secured profit growth from a quarter ago.

More than 26 percent of the respondents are confident about year-on-year revenue growth，and about 28 percent said they expect their revenues to be at least the same as last years level.

Liu predicted that Chinas foreign trade is likely to exceed 40 trillion yuan （ $5.97 trillion） this year，with policy measures showing off the advantages of the nations resilient supply and industrial chains.

分析師和贸易专家称，尽管面临史 无前例的挑战，包括原材料价格高和来 自东南亚国家的激烈竞争，中国外贸今 年有望实现稳定增长。

中国国际贸易促进委员会的一项调 查显示，今年二季度大部分行业出口利 润情况比一季度好转，物流成本高等外 贸企业面临的主要问题有所改善。

中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究 员刘英指出，值得注意的是外贸数据不 只是相对上季度有所好转，而且二季度 的每个月的数据都比前一月更好。6月 可能将出现对外贸易的强劲反弹和更有 力的经济复苏。

调查显示，25.43%的企业贸易额环 比增长，19.98%的企业利润环比增加。

26.22%的企业预计全年贸易额实现 增长，28.17%的企业认为至少与去年持 平。

刘英预计，在有利于发挥中国供应 链产业链韧性优势的政策措施支持下， 今年中国外贸额有望突破40万亿元。

The exporters also benefited from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement，which took effect on Jan 1，and interest rate increases by the United States，which Liu believes will facilitate Chinas exports.

The survey found that new trade formats such as cross-border ecommerce provided strong support to export growth，and the nations policies to ease the burdens of foreign trade enterprises，such as ensuring smooth logistics and speeding up tax and fee reductions， have boosted the sector as well.

More than 40 percent of enterprises in the survey said they have become familiar with RCEP rules，up 17.69 percentage points from the first quarter. About 54 percent plan to use those rules for their benefit.

The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade has also issued 43，600 RCEP certificates of origin for more than 10，000 enterprises.

Zhao Shengmei，general manager of Newcom Group，a bag and travel luggage manufacturer in Pinghu，Zhejiang province，said the company currently is recruiting more workers as orders in the first half of 2022 have already reached the whole-year level of 2021

A report released on June 29 by the Peoples Bank of China， the nations central bank，showed that the export order index came in at 41 percent in the second quarter，down 9.6 percentage points from the same period in 2021. The figure increased by just 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter of the year.

Liu Xiangdong，a researcher at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges，said Vietnams fast export growth will not threaten Chinas position in the global supply chain in the short term due to their closely integrated industrial chains.

He said China must enhance the resilience of the industrial chain and work with neighboring countries to mitigate risks and boost export volume in high-end manufacturing.

劉英认为，1月1日生效的《区域全 面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）也让出 口商从中受益，美国利率的上调对中国 出口也会起到促进作用。

调查发现，跨境电商等贸易新业态 对出口增长提供了强有力的支持，国家 减轻外贸企业负担的政策，比如确保物 流畅通和加速落实减税降费，也促进了 外贸行业的发展。

调查涵盖的企业中超 40%表示熟 悉 RCEP 规则，比一季度上升了 17.69 个百分点。约 54%的企业计划运用 RCEP规则为自己的利益服务。

中国贸促会还签发了 RCEP 原产 地证书 43600 份，办证企业累计超过 1 万家。

浙江平湖箱包生产商新秀集团的 总经理赵胜梅表示，该公司目前正在招 聘更多员工，因为2022年上半年的订单 量已经达到了2021年全年的水平。

中国人民银行 6 月 29 日发布的报 告显示，我国二季度的出口订单指数为 41%，相比 2021 年同期下降了 9.6 个百 分点，只比一季度上升0.1个百分点。

中国国际经济交流中心研究员刘 向东表示，越南出口的快速增长短期内 不会威胁到中国在全球供应链中的地 位，因为二者的产业链是紧密结合在一 起的。

刘向东表示，中国必须增强产业链 韧性，通过与邻国合作来化解风险，提 高高端制造业的出口量。