ABSTRACTS

3 Explaining the Participation of Countries along the Belt and Road: A Qualitative Comparative Analysis Based on 61 Countries

by Li Zhichao & Yan Haibing

【Abstract】Since the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was proposed in 2013,it has been widely recognized by the international community.While most studies are mainly based on Chinese standpoints,few have examined the perspectives of BRI countries.Given the apparent differences in the participation of these countries,it is necessary to look into the causal factors and the complex mechanisms behind.By introducing the multiple-streams framework for government decision-making,this paper sees the participation of the BRI countries as a complicate decision-making process in which diverse factors interact.Based on the three streams of problems,policies and politics,five variables are selected including economic disparity,national governance ability,advocation by scholars,mainstream media’s reporting tendency,and similarity of political systems.Fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fs-QCA) is used to analyze the influencing factors and their combinations that shape the participation of the countries along the BRI.The results indicate that all three streams have an impact on these countries’ participation,but no single factor is sufficient to explain the occurrence of active participation.There are three ways in which advocation by scholars interacts with other factors to explain nearly half of the cases of high participation.Based on this,this paper puts forward three pathways for high participation of the BRI countries:scholars making their voices heard under adverse conditions,under neutral conditions,and under favorable conditions.

【Key Words】the Belt and Road Initiative,multiple streams framework,qualitative comparative analysis,etic perspective

25 The Bargaining Behavior of Small Powers and Investment Risks of the BRI Projects: the Case of the East Coast Railway Project of Malaysia

by He Xianqing & Lin Yongxin

【Abstract】The majority of the countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)are mostly small or medium-sized countries,where investment in infrastructure projects is one of China’s main ways to promote the implementation of the BRI.However,these investment projects face a series of risks.Although some studies have analyzed these risk scenarios,they have ignored the bargaining behavior of the participating countries,which may lead to risks of losses for the BRI’s investment projects.This article argues that these participating countries always make foreign policies under the competitive pressure between China and the other great powers.At the same time,since the participating countries themselves are autonomous,capable of recognizing their own interests and choosing how to realize them,this makes it possible for them to bargain with China.According to the bargaining theory,small and medium-sized countries with strong autonomy will bargain with a great power when the latter faces strategic constraints from other great powers.A case in point is the contradictory attitude shown by the Mahathir Administration of Malaysia toward China with respect to the East Coast Railway Project.The concept of bargaining behavior theoretically encapsulates the diplomatic behavior of small and medium-sized countries with strong autonomy and under strong systemic pressure.In this sense,it also provides valuable theoretical insight for predicting investment risks in the process of implementing the BRI.

【Key Words】the Belt and Road Initiative,bargaining behavior,investment risks,the East Coast Railway Project,the Mahathir Administration

43 The Unusual Surge of Nationalism during the COVID-19 Pandemic

by Quan Yan

【Abstract】The extraordinary surge of nationalism during the COVID-19 pandemic is something that deserves attention.Since some right-wing governments and political parties politicize the pandemic by scapegoating others,they have created a series of extremist,anti-foreign racist incidents and religious conflicts.Specifically,they include the stigmatization of certain ethnic minorities and people of certain religious faiths,antiforeign nationalist policies,and propagating conspiracy theories against certain groups.Against the background of deglobalization,this surge in nationalism has spread very quickly thanks to rising anti-globalization movements worldwide and the rise of rightwing forces.This paper contends that the root cause of the nationalist surge during COVID-19 is the combination of inequality inherent in capitalism and ultra-antiforeign nationalism.To cope with this surge,we need to promote strong public policies and social equity,and resurrect the spirit of multilateralism so as to reduce the negative impact of nationalism.In doing so we must place sustainability,demographic equality and humanitarianism at the heart of the reconstruction plan.Only in this way can we muster the force necessary to put politics back to normal and successfully tackle the global pandemic.

【Key Words】COVID-19,globalization,neoliberalism,nationalism,unusual political phenomenon

59 The “C5+1” Mechanism between Central Asia and the United States: Evolutionand Adaptation

by Yang Shuangmei

【Abstract】At the beginning of 2020 after the U.S.Secretary of State visited Central Asia,the U.S.released the United States Strategy for Central Asia,which indicates the increased importance the U.S.attaches to this region.As one of the cooperation mechanisms for the U.S.and Central Asian states,the C5+1 aims to improve economic connectivity,ensure security and stability,and promote sustainable development.Since its establishment,the C5+1 has gone through three stages from initial creation,to a period of slow progress,and finally to adjustment and adaptation.This evolution,which is distinctive in its features,is influenced by the security situation in Afghanistan,U.S.relations with Central Asia,relations between Central Asia and neighboring great powers,and the internal political dynamics of the regional states.Based on this analysis,it can be concluded that U.S.involvement in Central Asian affairs and its intention of using the C5+1 to balance extra-regional states will both increase,Central Asian states will be more flexible in their foreign policy,and Afghanistan’s relations with Central Asia will also be strengthened.

【Key Words】United States Strategy for Central Asia,C5+1,the Afghanistan issue,Central Asian security

76 The Autonomy of International Organizations and the United Nations in Global Climate Governance: the Case of the 2019 UN Global Climate Action Summit

by Zhou Yijiang

【Abstract】Autonomy is a core concept in the study of international organizations in international politics.As the most influential and universal international organization,the role of the United Nations in global climate governance has attracted much academic attention.However,while existing literature lays excessive importance on its role as a platform for sovereign states to bridge differences and achieve cooperation,little has been done to examine the autonomy of its bureaucracy.The 2019 UN Climate Action Summit (the Summit) is an important case for studying the autonomous behavior of the United Nations.By reviewing academic discussions on the autonomy of international organizations,this paper defines such autonomy as the ability to use their authority and mobilize resources to influence policy results regarding specific issues in a way consistent with their policy preferences.Then it builds a three-dimensional framework for behavioral analysis consisting of action,willingness and results.Using this framework,this paper first explores the UN’s autonomous actions in the Summit in terms of agendasetting,rule-making,and mechanism-designing.Then from the perspective of the interaction between issues and international organizations,it points out that the UN’s increased willingness to participate in global climate governance is attributable to the growing salience of climate issues in the UN agenda,the growing governance vacuum,and Secretary-General Guterres’s emphasis on climate issues.Finally,based on the results of the Summit,this paper evaluates the prospects of the UN’s autonomy in climate governance.

【Key Words】international organizations,autonomy,the UN,climate governance,Climate Action Summit

97 Why Do Regional Security Organizations Collapse?

by Chen Xiang

【Abstract】Geared toward the security in a given region,a regional security organization takes the region’s security as its primary concern and coordinates the action of its member states.There is divergence in the evolution of regional security organizations as some survive and continue to consolidate while others gradually decline or even collapse.Since existing research on the cause of their collapse offers no causal mechanism,it is necessary to build a new analytical framework to explain such empirical puzzle.The disintegration of regional security organizations is caused by the combination of two variables:compatibility of security interests between the organization and its members,and its adaptability to the changing security environments.Lower compatibility of security interests results in the organization’s inability to meet the member’s security needs,and weaker adaptability makes it difficult to adjust to changes in the international and regional security environment.Meanwhile,the leading power in the regional security organization acts as the intervening variable.This paper takes SEATO,NATO,and the FPDA as cases to test the theoretical hypothesis.

【Key Words】regional security organizations,organization collapse,security interest compatibility,adaptability to security environments,the leading power

117 The Stigmatization of China by Western Countries against the Background of the COVID-19 Pandemic

by Zeng Xianghong & Li linlin

【Abstract】Since the COVID-19 epidemic first broke out in China,the West has engaged in a massive stigmatization drive against China.As the epidemic struck more and more countries across the world,stigmatizing China has evolved from moral criticism to political attacks,featuring diverse subjects of stigmatization,politicized motivations,and complex stigmatizing contents.Taking advantage of their cultural and discourse power,some western countries,led by the US,have used stigmatization to paint China as the“culprit” of the pandemic,in order to win support at home and abroad to advance their political goal of containing China.Given the uncertainty arising from the pandemic,the drive to stigmatize China has had serious destructive impacts:more and more people of Asian origin in other parts of the world have become targets of racist attacks,Sino-US relations have come under great strain,and China faces a far harsher external environment.In response,China should,based on an understanding of stigma-diffusion mechanisms,take calibrated measures to enhance its ability and resilience in dealing with the publicity crisis.In making its de-stigmatization moves,China should adhere to the principles of compassion,just cause,efficacy,and proper restraint,and act in a way befitting its role as a responsible great power and true to its humanistic character.

【Key Words】COVID-19 pandemic,stigma and stigmatization,Western public opinion toward China,international publicity environment,coping strategy

136 Russia’s OPEC+ Policy: From Active Participation to Passive Response

by Cao Fengyu

【Abstract】Russia’s participation in OPEC+ has been characterized by apparent policy contradictions.During the process leading to the establishment of OPEC+,Russia gradually gained the dominant position that allowed it to set the agenda through a diplomatic win over Saudi Arabia.By directly intervening in Saudi Arabia’s conflict with Iran,Russia removed the obstacles to OPEC+,and finally helped to turn OPEC+ into a permanent mechanism.In this sense Russia was an important promoter of OPEC+.Since OPEC+ was created,Russia has tried to evade the reduction commitments,and had several conflicts with Saudi Arabia over the production quota.This was attributable to the structural changes in the international oil supply system in the context of the “Shale Revolution”,the limited transformation of the Russo-Saudi relationship characterized by both competition and cooperation,and Russia’s changing interests.With the United States joining the production reduction alliance and the emergence of a new balance of power on the market,the external environment for Russia’s energy diplomacy has improved in the short run.But in the long run,Russia’s inability to increase output will be a major obstacle to its attempt to enhance its influence in the energy field.The possible solutions will be for Russia to strengthen its political presence in the Middle East and other oil producing regions,and use non-market means to increase its influence in the energy market.

【Key Words】OPEC+,Russia,production cut agreement,energy diplomacy,Shale Revolution