Construction on Establishment of Security Risk Assessment Index System for Chinese Peacekeeping Operations

WANG Honghai, ZHAO Xin

(China People’s Police University, Langfang, Hebei Province 065000)

Abstract： In recent years, with the gradual deepening of Chinese participation in peacekeeping operations, the risks associated with peacekeeping operations have also gradually increased. Chinese peacekeeping operation safety risk assessment indicator system is the basis for evaluating the participation efficiency of Chinese participation in international peacekeeping operations and ensuring the safety of personnel and equipment. This paper discusses the establishment of a risk assessment index system based on the principles of safety system engineering and risk management. It begins with a number of aspects including staffing, equipment and tactics levels. The essay establishes Security Risk Assessment Index System for Chinese Peacekeeping, which provides technical support for the application of the evaluation system in the future.

Key words： Chinese peacekeeping operations; safety; risk identification; risk assessment; risk index system

Since 1948, the United Nations has deployed 64 peacekeeping operations, with 16 on-going peacekeeping operations. By October 2017, China has participated in 24 peacekeeping operations, accounting for 38.1% of the total number of United Nations peacekeeping operations[1]. China has the largest number of peacekeepers in the permanent member of the Security Council. It is also the country with the second-largest peacekeeping budget. Guided by the socialist ideology with Chinese characteristics and the all-round diplomatic arrangements in the new era of Xi Jinping, China is gradually promoting global governance and safeguarding the fairness and justice of the international order[2]. China is now a firm supporter and participant of the UN peacekeeping operations and has made important contributions to safeguarding world peace.

In recent years, with the gradual deepening of peacekeeping operations, the security risks of peacekeeping operations have also gradually increased. These risks include traffic accidents, injuries caused by harsh environments, the terrorist attacks against UN peacekeepers, the secondary injuries of the warring sides, the dissatisfaction of the local public and the threat of natural disasters, which all poses threats to the security of Chinese peacekeepers[3]. How to reasonably assess these risks and avoid the possible harm caused by risks in maximum degree is a topic that we urgently need to study. At present, there are many domestic studies on Chinese ability to participate in international peacekeeping operations. However, there are few studies on the risk assessment of Chinese peacekeeping operations. Traditional management evaluation methods are generally limited to qualitative research and it is difficult to reasonably evaluate the size of the risk of peacekeeping operations. In order to effectively improve the efficiency of Chinese peacekeeping operations and try to control or reduce the risks in peacekeeping operations, we try to use the basic principles of risk management in the management of peacekeeping forces to identify various potential risk factors, the possible quantitative analysis of the nature and consequences. And on this basis we take effective measures to avoid risks and to control the risk to a relatively low level, which is of great significance for improving the anti-risk capabilities of peacekeeping operations.

1 Risk Identification

1.1 Risk attribute

The so-called risk refers to the uncertainty in the development of things. The security risk of peacekeeping operations exists in all aspects of peacekeeping operations, including the preparation phase, implementation phase, ending phase, security unit and combat unit of peacekeeping operations. The security risk of peacekeeping personnel runs through the entire process of its mission. Therefore, we must incorporate the concept of risk assessment in every aspect of peacekeeping operations, conduct personnel security risk assessments around the peacekeeping operations process, thereby scientifically judge and prevent the expansion and spread of risks, and achieve effective warning.

1.2 Theoretical basis

According to the idea of safety system engineering, safety is complex and the relevant factors and goals are diversified. In general, the research object of safety system engineering can be summarized into three parts, namely: people, machine and environment. The three parts impact and interact with each other and constitute the organic whole of the “man-machine-environment” system. In this regard, the theoretical community has put forward many evaluation models, such as the “The Five-M Model” and the “SHELL” model.

Referring to its ideas, Chinese peacekeeping operationsthe risk assessment index system should generally include the following four basic elements: staffing, weapons, tactical levels and safety management.

1.3 Recognition methods

Risk identification is the systematic and continuous identification. Risk classification have not yet occurred, but potentially and objectively exists, which analyzes the causes of the risks. This is an initial, basic and important step in the entire risk management process[4]. The identification of risks is a very complicated task and requires a lot of information.

The methods used to identify risks are: event tree analysis, security checklist, system risk analysis questionnaire (also known as risk factor analysis questionnaire) etc. Among them, the safety checklist method is a relatively common and feasible method. According to the results of relevant safety regulations, standards, systems, and system analysis methods, a scientific analysis of a system or equipment is conducted to find out various insecurity factors in the field of Chinese participation in peacekeeping operations(Table 1). And the unsafe factors found are identified in the form of a list of problems according to the inspection items. The table formed to facilitate inspections and safety management is called a safety checklist. It can be used not only for simple fast analysis, but also for in-depth analysis. It is an effective technical means to identify existing risks.

2 Basic Elements of Risk

The basic elements of Chinese participation in UN peacekeeping operations include security risks, staffing, equipment allocation, tactical levels and security management.

Table 1 Statistics of Chinese Participation in Peacekeeping Operations Security Risk Cases[注]http://www.un.org/zh/sections/what-we-do/maintain-peace-and-security/.

2.1 Staffing

2.1.1 Commander

The quality of commanders is an important guarantee for ensuring the smooth completion of all tasks. Commanders must not only have rich knowledge, but also rich experience, wisdom, boldness and superb commanding art. However, the current commanders of peacekeeping operations generally have the following problems.

Firstly, some commanders have insufficient experience, especially the officers who go abroad to perform peacekeeping missions for the first time. They have just stepped out of training bases to work in foreign and unfamiliar environments. Although they have some theoretical knowledge of peacekeeping operations, they lack practical experience. They need to learn more from the actual battlefield and develop peacekeeping tactics hard.

Secondly, the standard of use of force is not uniform. It is the important task and responsibility for the commander to ensure the safety of the peacekeeping team because the peacekeeping police act according to the order of the commander. The commander must have the ability to predict and fully estimate the possible danger. However, in the mission area, peacekeepers from different countries have inconsistent understanding of the principle of use of force and the principle of confrontation, which may easily lead to confusion in tactical selection and unfavorable command in the actual self-defense war.

Thirdly, due to the awareness lack of risk prevention, some commanders do not consider actual dangers in the layout of their tasks and there are safety risks. When deploying forces, the commander must know the ability of players under his or her subordinates and assign tasks according to their physical capabilities, business mentality and other qualities. Otherwise, that will not only fail to complete the task, but will also lead to dangerous situations. The commander must also learn to draw lessons from past experience in peacekeeping operations and avoid repeating mistakes.

2.1.2 Combatant

Firstly, insufficient language skills become a problem. Most of the members of the peacekeeping riot team do not have the ability to speak foreign language, only coupled with a small number of detachment translations, which causes troubles for the coordination and cooperation of peacekeeping operations. In cooperation with other countries’ peacekeepers, it is easy to cause casualties because of language blunders.

Secondly, tactical collaboration is not tacit. In the training selection stage, most of the peacekeeping police training focus on how to deal with selection assessments. When facing with actual combat of the mission area, our team lack service training experience, so we need to strengthen the integrity, systematization and content of the training theories, especially in the field of weapon handling, the organization and command of the police, the coordination and cooperation between friends and neighbors. The participation and interaction of the team members in various service training needs to be further improved.

2.2 Equipment configuration

Peacekeeping police are required to be equipped accordingly to ensure rapid dispatch and re-dispatch at the tactical and operational levels. The definition, mission and area of operation of the peacekeeping police determine the characteristics and categories of peacekeeping force equipment, including the use of equipment for carrying out service activities, the rapid mobility of transportation equipment and support device for self-sustaining in weak infrastructure areas. According to the classification of compensation for equipment in the “United Nations Contingent-owned Equipment Manual”, equipment for peacekeeping forces can be divided into major equipment and self-sustaining equipment. The main equipment is directly related to the operational tasks, including vehicles, containers, water purification equipment, medical care, water storage equipment, generators, weapons and ammunition and protective equipment; the self-sustaining equipment mainly includes catering facilities, communications, office and small civil engineering projects, cleaning and laundry facilities, tents, fire extinguishing equipment, observation equipment, identification equipment. In addition, there are personal life equipment and weapons.

2.2.1 Unsatisfactory equipment for defense performance

Peacekeepers do not generally have heavy weapons to deal with general threats or maintain their daily duties. However, the situation in the mission area changes rapidly. When the threat level rises beyond its capabilities, the defensiveness and power of the equipment need to be enhanced. The peacekeeping police need to be equipped with basic rifles, pistols, hand grenades and other light weapons. They also require tanks, artillery, helicopter gunships, rockets, and other heavy equipment. If necessary, in some high-risk mission areas, they even need to defend against terrorist bomb attacks. The armored personnel carriers and the Warrior SUV equipped by the peacekeeping police have strong capabilities in defense against light weapons and land mines, but they have relatively weak capabilities in the defense against rockets and artillery shells. They are used in mission areas such as aircraft, tanks and artillery in South Sudan where the adaptability of the battlefield is relatively weak. So it is also necessary to improve the defensive capabilities of all equipment vehicles.

2.2.2 Inadequate maintenance of equipment

In the mission area, the hot weather, the harsh environment, the rainy season and frequent use make equipment worn out. The United Nations checks the performance and quantity of equipment once a quarter. It also conducts random checks on equipment every month. Once the equipment is damaged or has not been repaired in time, it will not be able to obtain compensation for the relevant equipment. However, lack of materials in the mission area, untimely domestic supply, different parts of vehicle equipment will affect maintenance capabilities, increase the carrying capacity of spare parts and challenge equipment maintenance of peacekeeping troops.

2.3 Training exercises

2.3.1 Exposed problem through the plan development

Although the peacekeeping police generally have formulated various plans for various major hazard sources and key areas, they should combine the new situation and tasks faced by the peacekeeping forces to strengthen the investigation and research on the mission area, effectively find， revise and improve new laws and new features. We need complete plans for rescue and various types of disaster accidents, resolutely putting an end to the “prediction into the cabinet, unchanged for many years” phenomenon.

2.3.2 Typical case studies

On the basis of further strengthening the study of business theories, the peacekeeping police at all levels of the mission area should establish a security rescue study and discussion group, do a good job in the battle evaluation work of typical security accidents, analyze the experience in judgments and lessons from accidents and formulate appropriate safety precautions countermeasures.

2.4 Security management

2.4.1 The safety management awareness of peacekeeping personnel

The training process should regularly comment on typical safety cases, increase safety awareness education for peacekeepers, learn painful lessons from previous casualties, focus on the current investigation of safety hazards, always keep officers and men clear-headed and pay attention to protecting their safety in performing routine duties.

2.4.2 Peacekeepers’ psychological quality training and field rescue

Due to the special feature of peacekeeping operations, peacekeeping police face the tests from life and death at any time. We must strengthen the education and training of the peacekeeping police’s psychological quality, improve their psychological quality and adaptability skills to adapt to the complex combat environment and cultivate their adaptability to calm down with changes. Based on this, they need to learn various rescue techniques in the field, be ready to save people and protect their own safety.

3 Establishment of Risk Assessment Index System for Chinese Peacekeeping Operations

Risk assessment is the basic and important part of risk management and risk decision. It is not an independent link. The basic process of risk assessment can be divided into three steps: risk identification, risk analysis and risk assessment. Each link has its own task. Risk identification is the process of discovering, enumerating and describing risk factors, including the identification of risk sources, risk events, their causes and potential consequences. Risk analysis needs considering the cause of risk, the consequences of risk event and the probability of occurrence, the interrelationship of different risks and sources of risk and other characteristics of the risk. Meanwhile, it is considered whether the control measures exist effectively. Risk assessment should compare the consequences of risk analysis with pre-determined risk criteria, or contrast the results of various risk analyses to determine the level of risk. Risk assessment uses the knowledge from the risk analysis process to make decisions about future actions.

Chinese participation in the risk assessment of peacekeeping operations aims at achieving the security of peacekeeping forces. It analyzes security in all aspects and identifies possible factors that may cause accidents and damages in the tactics formulation, technical equipment, training exercises, management education,etc. At last peacekeeping personnel will formulate practical preventive measures.

The establishment of Chinese participation in peacekeeping operations safety risk assessment system is the core technology for risk assessment. The main research contents are as follows. First of all, based on the theory of risk management, the system can identify the risk factors that peacekeeping forces carry out in the task zone, civilian protection and camp protection. Secondly, on the basis of scientific identification of risk factors, evaluation indicators are rationally determined and security risk assessment index system for peacekeeping operations was established. Finally, through the test of risk assessment index system and the questionaire of the opinions of all parties, we determine a more reasonable indicator system finally and make preparation for selecting the scientific risk assessment model for the next step.

3.1 The process of establishing a risk assessment indicator system

Firstly, in order to conduct thorough investigations and studies on peacekeeping forces, the research team conducted in-depth investigations into the China Peacekeeping Police Training Center, the Standing-by Peacekeeping Police Base of the Ministry of Public Security, and the Ministry of National Defense Peacekeeping Center.

Secondly, with system identifying risks, the commanders, the combatants, the peacekeeping team can understand the risk factors which may be encountered in peacekeeping operations and grasp first-hand information.

Thirdly, the commanders and combatants of the peacekeeping team are asked to fill out the safety checklist and the questionaire, and master the comparative and systematic data.

Finally, we solicit comments repeatedly on the preliminary establishment of Chinese peacekeeping operations risk assessment index system. Professors, long-term engaged in the field of scientific research, give valuable advices and make further amendments to the first draft.

3.2 Content of risk assessment indicator system

On the basis of in-depth research on peacekeeping forces and questionnaires to identify various risks. A preliminary risk assessment index system for Chinese peacekeeping operations was established (Table 2). The index system mainly includes three levels and there are 21 lowest level indicators. Those indicators need to be analyzed in depth. On this basis, the weights are determined and the scores are divided[5].

4 Conclusion

4.1 Theoretical level

Based on the in-depth investigation and research of peacekeeping operations and the principles of security system engineering and risk management, the risk factors in Chinese peacekeeping operations are analyzed to establish a risk assessment index system for peacekeeping operations. This indicator system needs to be developed in the future. And we should continue to refine and improve research. The completion of the basic work of Chinese participation in the risk assessment system for peacekeeping operations provides a more scientific, rational and effective service for peacekeeping policy-making. On the one hand, the risk assessment of peacekeeping operations is calculated and processed to generate the risk distribution map of the mission area of the UN peacekeeping operations[6]. In conjunction with the Geographic Information System (GIS), various spatial and dynamic mission area information can be provided in a timely manner, which is fast and accurate. We comprehensively conduct a spatial orientation and dynamic analysis of the complex peacekeeping mission area, which make the United Nations, sending countries and peacekeeping personnel accurately and objectively understand the risks of peacekeeping operations and provide the basis and support for preventing and controlling risks.

4.2 Practical teaching

For a long time, China has attached great impor-tance to the risks of peacekeeping operations. However, it lacks scientific and effective managerial methods in the management of specific operations, theoretical research, application and popularization of relevant risk assessment. And it has not systematically conducted the management of peacekeeping operations from the perspective of risk assessment. The characteristics and laws have been recognized and studied, which has left security risks in our country’s participation in the management of UN peacekeeping operations. The current risk judgment is mainly based on the investigation of the mission area before dispatching and the report of the peacekeeping police in monthly mission area. The perception is strong but the judgment is not comprehensive. At the same time, due to the ever-changing risks, there is uncertainty in its assessment and preparation. Risk management has been discussed in many areas of work. Through the establishment of a risk assessment index system for peacekeeping operations, it has laid a foundation for the comprehensive application of historical methods and scientific methods for the later phase through theoretical and systematic research risk.

Table 2 The Security Risk Assessment Index System of China’s Peacekeeping Operations

In the daily teaching and training session, through the preliminary exploration of establishing a risk assessment system for Chinese participation in peacekeeping operations, the environment of the mission area is analyzed. In the future, casualties examples can be taught to peacekeeping police and riot teams in the mission area. Providing relevant cases in the teaching process can enhance the safety awareness of peacekeeping police and riot teams. The risk cases of peacekeeping operations in China can be converted into teaching materials for peacekeeping training services, providing peacekeepers with assessment and avoiding safety risks. Reducing the casualty rate of Chinese peacekeepers in the mission area help riot team increase the safety of peacekeeping operations, improve Chinese international prestige and status, fulfill its international obligations, contribute Chinese wisdom to the world, and significantly achieve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation as well as the realization of the Chinese dream.

(Editor-at-large:HanHuabing)