How Should China Select Its Strategy to Participate in the Activities in the Area:A SWOT-AHP Analysis

CHENG Shihui

Abstract: The international seabed area (the Area) constitutes an important part of the “global commons”, and also a critical element that China should pay attention to when implementing its “maritime power” strategy. The paper uses the SWOT-AHP model to examine the internal strengths and weaknesses, external opportunities and threats of China should it plan to participate in the activities in the Area, and draws a strategic quadrilateral based on the foregoing analysis. The SWOT-AHP analysis shows that: China "s greatest strength comes from the steady rise of its comprehensive national strength, and its obvious edge over others in terms of the social and political system; its biggest internal weakness is its inferior deep sea mining technology; its biggest external opportunity is the peaceful and stable international environment; and the largest external threat comes from the diきculty to assess the risk of environmental damage, along with the increasingly stringent requirements on marine environmental protection. Based on the analyses,the paper concludes that China should adopt the SO (aggressive) strategy to participate in the activities in the Area.

Key Words: International Seabed Area; SWOT model; AHP; Maritime power strategy

With the decline of terrestrial resources and the rapid development of science and technology, human beings have gradually turned their attention to the bottom of the ocean - the international seabed area (the Area).1According to Article 1(1)(1), international seabed area means “the seabed and ocean fl oor and subsoil thereof, beyond the limits of national jurisdiction”.The Area, being an important part of “global commons”, has had its status increasingly coming under the lens. Both developed and developing States, whether traditional Western powers or newly independent Pacific island States, are seeking to develop policies or strategies with respect to the Area in line with their national conditions and relevant international situations. Given the growing expectation to conduct largescale commercial mining, China "s choice of strategy to participate in the activities in the Area concerns its national development space, resource security, economic interests, scientific and technological level, and maritime rights and interests. It is thus undoubtedly of great significance to study this issue.

Many academic achievements have been made with respect to the Area and other relevant issues. Chinese scholars focus their researches on four aspects in this field. The first looks at the regime of the Area, which mainly includes the mechanism of the International Seabed Authority (ISA), resource development regime, environmental protection regime and the pertinent laws and regulations. In response to the problems associated with the current regime of the Area and China "s marine legal system, such as contractor obligations, liabilities of sponsoring States and risk of environmental damage, some scholars have offered suggestions for China, which include, among others, improving China "s marine legal system,accelerating the research of deep-sea mining technology, paying attention to the study of legal and scientific issues related to marine environmental protection, and focusing on the building of its “soft power” to participate in the activities in the Area.2JIN Yongming, The Legal Status of the International Seabed Area and Its Resource Development Regime (Doctoral Dissertation), Shanghai: East China University of Political Science and Law, 2005 (in Chinese); ZHANG Hui, Some Pending Issues in the Development of International Seabed Area Regime, Legal Forum, Vol. 26, No. 5, 2011,pp. 91～96 (in Chinese); JIANG Bingguo and HAN Limin, Theoretical Analysis of the Exploitation of Deep-Sea Strategic Mineral Resources, Journal of Ocean University of China (Social Sciences Edition), No. 2, 2011, pp. 114～119 (in Chinese); ZHANG Dan, A Brief Analysis of the Mechanism for Environmental Protection in the International Seabed Area, Ocean Development and Management, No. 9, 2014, pp. 98～103 (in Chinese); FU Yu and ZOU Leilei, An Analysis of the Development Tendency of the Regime for Protection of the International Marine Environment, Pacific Journal, Vol. 20, No. 7, 2012, pp. 72～80(in Chinese); ZHU Yongling, Mining in the International Seabed Areas of China, Ocean Development and Management, No. 8, 2017, pp. 109～112 (in Chinese).

The second research focus is the study of overseas research trends and the drawing of lessons from foreign experiences. Some scholars who have studied foreign theories and practices concerning the Area, have provided some references for China to aid its participation in the activities in the Area. Perfect examples in this case include the researches by SHEN Peng and LIU Shuguang. Mr.SHEN analyzed the United States " policy on the development of the resources of“global commons” and its importance to ensuring its national security, preventing international conflicts, safeguarding its resource interests and protecting the ecological environment. Based on the analysis, he thoroughly discussed the policies to exploit the resources of the “global commons” and the practical significances of the development of such policies. Mr. LIU, by first sorting out overseas research trends on deep-sea development, examined some issues under the spotlight like deep-sea mining, from the angles of ecology and applied economics. He went on to further propose that China should accelerate the research on the core technology necessary for deep-sea exploitation, pay attention to biodiversity protection,and strengthen international exchange and cooperation on marine science and technology.3SHEN Peng, An Analysis of U.S. Policy on Natural Resources Development, The Chinese Journal of American Studies, No. 3, 2016, pp. 52～68 (in Chinese); LIU Shuguang,International Research Trends of Deep-sea Development and the Insight, Frontiers, No. 18,2017, pp. 29～36 (in Chinese).

The third focus is on the study of the strategies to develop the Area. The research in this regard began in the 1990s and has received more attention in recent years. As early as the 1990s, scholars such as ZHANG Haiqi and XIAO Hanqiang have called for a strategic understanding of the importance of deepsea mineral exploitation. It is also important to note that LI Bo et al. proposed that a comprehensive strategy for the development of the Area should be established with the least delay possible, and such a strategy should focus on the protection of China "s rights and interests, with the purpose of exploiting the resources by updating technology and cultivating qualified talents, so that the management and operation mechanism in this area could be improved. In recent years, HU Bo and other scholars have also explored the relationship between China "s deep-sea strategy and the building of a maritime power.4ZHANG Haiqi and XIAO Hanqiang, Prospect for the Exploitation of Deep Seabed Mineral Resources and the Countermeasures, Chinese Geology, No. 2, 1994, pp. 15～17(in Chinese); LI Bo, To Develop a More Comprehensive Strategy for the Development of International Seabed Resources with the Least Delay Possible, China Soft Science, No. 9,1996, pp. 24～26 (in Chinese); HU Bo, China "s Deep-sea Strategy and Marine Power Road,Frontiers, No. 18, 2017, pp. 12～21 (in Chinese).

The fourth is the study on some new emerging issues, such as the living and genetic resources of the Area; countermeasures to these issues are provided from the perspectives of the foundations of a legal system, selection of resource exploitation mode, and ecological safety.5ZHANG Shanbao, An Analysis on the Establishment of the International Seabed Biological Resources Exploitation System, Pacific Journal, No. 3, 2013, pp. 1～9 (in Chinese); REN Qiujuan and MA Fengcheng, On Ecological Security during the Bio-prospection of Marine Genetic Resources in the International Seabed Area, Pacific Journal, No. 9, 2014, pp.90～97 (in Chinese).

Foreign scholars have done relatively little research on China "s participation in the activities in the Area. Current academic trends and research on this topic instructively show that, overall, there is only a little research concerning China "s strategic choice to participate in such activities, and the approach and methodology adopted in such research still needs improving, although the study in this respect has received increasing attention.

SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) and AHP (analytic hierarchy process) models, as classic models in management science, are believed to be most commonly used by organizations to conduct strategic analysis and selection. SWOT model focuses on analyzing the internal and external factors affecting strategic selection for organizations; while AHP model is applied to evaluate a given set of strategic alternatives for an organization, mainly through structuring the elements influencing strategic choice in a hierarchy of different levels and using the model to calculate the weight of each factor. A combination of SWOT and AHP models may evaluate strategic alternatives for organizations in a more accurate and objective manner, so as to maximize their strategic interests.In fact, the SWOT-AHP model has been widely applied in many fields of research in recent years. Consequently, applying SWOT-AHP model to the topic under discussion may help to understand, objectively, the strengths and weaknesses of China to participate in the activities in the Area, and furthermore, scientifically evaluate the possible strategic alternatives that could be employed by China in its participation in such activities.

I. The Significances for China to Participate in the Activities in the Area

The growing value of the Area gradually came to light, when human beings began to cast their eyes over it. Considering China "s strategy to build itself into a nation renowned for its maritime power, the significances of the Area become even more prominent.

First and foremost, the Area has tremendous value in terms of “space”.Humans began to pay attention to the space of the ocean floor after the Second World War when its unique military strategic value came to light.6Arvid Pardo, Who Will Control the Seabed?, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 47, No. 1, 1968, pp.123～137.Since the beginning of the new century, the Area has been regarded as a new arena for States to conduct scientific and technological competition, scramble for resources,and engage in military confrontation and rule disputes in the future.7HU Bo, China "s Deep-sea Strategy and Marine Power Road, Frontiers, No. 18, 2017, pp.12～21 (in Chinese).“The Area covers about 49% of the Earth "s surface area”,8JIN Jiancai, Planing and Managing Activities in the Oceans to Expand the Activity Space of China in International Waters, Ocean Development and Management, No. 4, 2011, pp.35～37. (in Chinese)but the part of ocean that has been explored or come to our knowledge only accounts for 5% approximately.9SUN Song and SUN Xiaoxia, Future Ocean and Our Research Strategy, Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 12, 2016, pp. 1285～1292. (in Chinese)That is to say, the Area is “the largest strategic space that can be potentially utilized by humans,” it is thus of great significance for humans to expand their activity space and for China to enlarge its strategic maritime space.10HU Bo, China "s Deep-sea Strategy and Marine Power Road, Frontiers, No. 18, 2017, pp.12～21 (in Chinese).

Second, the Area contains extremely rich living and non-living resources,which is of great significance for China to ensure its national resource safety and economic benefits. The Area is home to many diverse marine organisms, microbial and genetic resources.11Robin Warner, Protecting the Oceans Beyond National Jurisdiction: Strengthening the International Law Framework, Leiden: Martinus Nijhoあ Publishers, 2009, pp. 7～13.“Deep sea sediments contain hundreds of millions of tons of DNA, which constitute the largest gene pool on Earth.”12JIN Jiancai, Moving Towards the Deep Ocean: A Necessary Choice for China to Build Itself into a Maritime Power, Ocean Development and Management, No. 12, 2012, pp. 24～27. (in Chinese)“Deep-sea sediments host the largest fractions of Bacteria, Archaea and viruses on Earth”.13Corinaldesi C., New Perspectives in Benthic Deep-sea Microbial Ecology, Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol. 2, 2015, pp. 1～12.According to statistics, around two-thirds of microbes on Earth may be living in the deep sea sediments and crust.14ZHANG Liang and QIN Yunshan, The Characteristic of Deep Sea Hydrothermal Ecosystem and Their Impact on the Extreme Microorganism, Advances in Earth Science, No. 7, 2017,pp. 696～706. (in Chinese)Also, in terms of mineral resources, the total amount of polymetallic nodules lying on the ocean fl oor was estimated at about 3 trillion tons.Particularly, “the tonnage of manganese nodules at the surface of the sediments of the Pacific Ocean is indicated to be 1.66×1012metric tons”.15John L. Mero ed., The Mineral Resources of the Sea, Amsterdam: Elsevier Publishing Company, 1965, p. 175.In line with the survey statistics of the six contracted areas in Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone in the central north Pacific, the reserves of nodule resource in this zone were estimated to be 34 billion tons approximately, including 7.5 billion tons of manganese, 340 million tons of nickel, 265 million tons of copper and 78 million tons of cobalt.Based on 20% recovery rate and 30% water content, it is estimated that 2.1 billion tons of dry nodule ore could be recovered.16ZHANG Tao and JIANG Chengzhu, Analysis of the Potential of Deep-sea Mineral Resources and Global Governance, China Mining Magazine, No. 11, 2017, pp. 14～18. (in Chinese)Furthermore, the total reserves of metal resources, such as nickel, cobalt, copper and manganese, contained in the Area are much higher than those on land, leaving such resources to be regarded as important alternative sources of strategic metal resources on land in the coming decades.17Rahul Sharma, Deep-Sea Mining: Resource Potential, Technical and Environmental Considerations, New York: Springer International Publishing, 2017, p. vii.Added to this, some experts have gone further to suggest that “the Area will become a new frontier of energy distribution.”18YANG Zewei, Transformation of International Energy Order: the Function of International Law and China "s Role Orientation, Oriental Law, No. 4, 2013, pp. 86～94. (in Chinese)

Third, China "s active participation in activities in the Area will herald a great improvement in its scientific and technological advancement as well as its strength in that field. The Area undoubtedly, has a great research value in biology, ecology,medicine, energy, minerals, and other fields. Eあorts to engage in the activities of the Area is of great importance, since such engagements possess the potential to help China raise its scientific and technological level and also enhance its research strength. Research on the ocean fl oor is associated with knowledge in all domains,including the origin of the universe and the Earth, formation and evolution of the ocean, origin of life, submarine energy, deep sea mineral resources, and even the deep-sea genetic resources. Such encompassing research has far-reaching, strategic significances for advancing scientific progress.19JIN Xianglong, Undersea Science and Its Development Strategy, in ZHENG Yulong ed.,Proceedings of the Symposium on Undersea Science and Strategy, Beijing: China Ocean Press, 2005, pp. 1～5. (in Chinese)The study on deep seabed genetic resources is a good example in this case. In recent years, application for intellectual property rights of marine genetic resources has grown rapidly at a rate of about 12% per year. More than 18,000 natural products and over 4,900 patents are related to marine organism genes.20Peter G. Pan, Bioprospecting: Issues and Policy Considerations, at http://lrbhawaii.org/reports/legrpts/lrb/rpts06/biocon.pdf, 15 November 2018.In addition, at deep sea hydrothermal vents, inorganic autotrophic microbial communities constitute a system similar to the primitive living system, which can be used to explore life forms outside the Earth.21ZHANG Liang and Qin Yunshan, The Characteristic of Deep Sea Hydrothermal Ecosystem and Their Impact on the Extreme Microorganism, Advances in Earth Science, No. 7, 2017,pp. 696～706. (in Chinese)These facts clearly demonstrate that to be fully engaged in the activities in the Area is of critical importance to the rise of China "s scientific and technological level.

Last but not least, the Area is an important frontier that should be addressed,when China puts every eあort to implement its strategy to build itself into a maritime power. Planning the moves directed towards to the Area may help safeguard China "s maritime rights and interests. In the past five years, the international seabed mining area for China has increased by 86,000 square kilometers. With the expanded area, China has become one of the States with the most categories of seabed minerals and the largest number of mining blocks in the world.22QIAO Siwei, The International Seabed Mining Area for China Has Increased by 86,000 Square Kilometers in the Last Five Years, China Land and Resources News, 23 January 2018, p. 1. (in Chinese)The report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed that “[w]e should enhance our capacity for exploiting marine resources, develop the marine economy … resolutely safeguard China "s maritime rights and interests, and build China into a maritime power.”23HU Jintao "s Report Delivered at the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, at http://news.xinhuanet.com/18cpcnc/2012-11/17/c_113711665.htm, 23 December 2017. (in Chinese)However, “in order to build China into a maritime power, we must set foot in the deep ocean, as no maritime power has its eyes solely on the sea areas under its jurisdiction.”24JIN Jiancai, Moving Towards the Deep Ocean: A Necessary Choice for China to Build Itself into a Maritime Power, Ocean Development and Management, No. 12, 2012, pp. 24～27. (in Chinese)

II. SWOT Analysis for China "s Participation in the Activities in the Area

A. SWOT in Strategic Analysis

SWOT model25SWOT model was first proposed by Prof. Kenneth R. Andrews of Harvard University in his book titled The Concept of Corporate Strategy in 1971. “S” and “W” respectively refer to,the strengths and weaknesses of an organization identified by analyzing its internal factors;“O” and “T” refer to the external opportunities that an organization may exploit and the possible threats that the organization may face in its external environment.is one of the most commonly used methods in strategic analysis. The aim of a SWOT analysis is to identify the extent to which the current strategy of an organization and its specific strengths and weaknesses are relevant,and then to enhance the organization "s capability to deal with the changes taking place in the environment, as well as to help the organization identify new strategic alternatives.26TAN Liwen and LI Yanping, Management, 3rd edition, Wuhan: Wuhan University Press,2009, p. 145. (in Chinese)The first step of SWOT analysis is to identify the strengths and weaknesses internal to an organization; the second step is to specify potential opportunities and threats presented by the environment external to the organization;the third step is to list the factors affecting the organization, which could be divided into four categories: strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats,and create ranking of these factors based on their importance and relevance to the organization; the fourth step is to create a SWOT strategy matrix by matching the internal factors with the external environmental factors, and then to select a strategy on the basis of a two-dimensional quadrantal diagram of SWOT analysis. The SWOT model, through matching factors, generates four strategies (See Fig. 1).27The SO strategy requires an organization to give full play to its internal strengths and actively exploit its external development opportunities; the WO strategy requires an organization to use its external opportunities to minimize or terminate their internal weaknesses; the WT strategy however, is a passively defensive and contractive strategy,which requires an organization to promptly take measures to compensate for their internal weaknesses and thus avoid external threats; the ST strategy is just the opposite of the WO strategy, demanding an organization to use their own strengths to avoid the adversity of the external environment. See LI Zhiping, LIU Cheng and CHEN E, Introduction to Management, Beijing: Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications Press, 2005, pp.88～90. (in Chinese)

Fig. 1 Two-Dimensional Quadrantal Diagram of SWOT Analysis

B. Applying SWOT Model to Analyze China "s Strategic Alternatives to Participate in the Activities in the Area

Against the backdrop of the “global commons” garnering increasing attention,and the technology to explore and exploit the deep ocean fl oor developing rapidly,the internal and external factors aあecting China "s participation in the activities in the Area have invariably become a lot more complicated. It is important to identify the key factors that inf l uence strategic selection, in order to achieve the strategic objective.28LIU Xinhua, The Strategic Option for China "s Development of Sea Power from the Perspective of SWOT Analysis of Strategic Management, World Economics and Politics,No. 10, 2013, pp. 96～117. (in Chinese)How to select the key factors and scientifically categorize them into groups is a question that requires careful consideration.

1. Analysis of Internal Strengths

To begin with, the types and number of China "s mining blocks give it an obvious advantage over others. Since the beginning of this century, China "s national power has increased, along with the rise of its international status and the rapid development of its marine technology. In this period, China has also achieved tremendously with respect to the activities in the Area. China is one of the States with the most categories of seabed minerals and the largest number of mining blocks in the world.29China has obtained the exclusive right from the ISA to explore four mining blocks. In 2001,the China Ocean Mineral Resources Research and Development Association (COMRA) and the ISA signed the first exploration contract for polymetallic nodules in the Eastern Pacific.In 2011, COMRA and the ISA signed an exploration contract for polymetallic sulphide in the Southwest Indian Ocean. In 2013, COMRA and the ISA signed an exploration contract for cobalt-rich ferromanganese in the Western Pacific. China Minmetals Corporation and the ISA signed in 2017, the second exploration contract for polymetallic nodules in the Eastern Pacific, thereby making it the fourth exploration contract signed between China and the ISA.All these factors are favorable in conducting deep-sea surveys and scientific research as well as collection of marine data, and exploration of the ocean fl oor. International practice shows that in-depth scientific research strongly underpins a State "s ability to get its voice heard in decision-making related to the activities in the Area. In addition, as a pioneer investor registered with the ISA,China has the priority to develop the mining blocks it obtained upon application.More mineral species and more mining blocks mean more alternatives for China to further exploit such resources as present in the Area.

Second, China "s deep-sea science and technology is developing rapidly. China“began, in the early 1990s, the research on the key technology involved in the building of deep-sea space stations and the proving of relevant theories.”30LI Chunfeng, The Potential and Challenge of China "s Marine Science and Technology Development, Frontiers, No. 18, 2017, pp. 37～43. (in Chinese)In 2002,China initiated a project to design and develop theJiaolong, a manned deep-sea submersible. In 2012, the submersible successfully completed a trial run by diving to a depth of over 7,000 meters below sea level.31PANG Bo, On the Evolution of China "s Deep Sea Submersibles, China Maritime Safety,No. 4, 2016, p. 77. (in Chinese)This success notably made China“the fifth State in the world with advanced deep-sea technology in this area, after the US, Japan, France and Russia.”32YANG Shu, Jiaolong Submersible Explores the Sea: A New Chapter, Guangming Daily, 9 June 2017, p. 2. (in Chinese)TheDayang No. 1, after modification and updating in 2013, stands at par with most advanced scientific research vessels in the world, thus becoming China "s first comprehensive scientific research vessel that meets the conditions required in research and exploration activities in the Area. What is more, this research vessel is open to both domestic and foreign researchers.33Dayang No. 1 Ranks Among the Most Advanced Research Vessels in the World, at http://www.comra.org/2013-09/23/content_6322812.htm, 5 December 2017. (in Chinese)Additionally, China has put its oil-drilling platformHai Yang Shi You 981and other unmanned, remote-controlled deep-sea submersibles into operation;and its construction of a manned deep-sea space station, a seabed observation network and other projects are advancing eきciently. China "s consistent and rapid development of its deep-sea science and technology provides itself with some advantages and leverage over others when it engages in the activities in the Area.

Third, China has strong comprehensive national strength, and an obvious edge over others in terms of the social and political system. First of all, the progressive development and rise of China "s comprehensive national strength has laid a solid foundation for its participation in the activities in the Area. Since the reform and opening-up in 1978, China "s economy has maintained such rapid growth which has transformed and developed the country into the world "s second largest economy.China "s “scientific and technological level has also seen a significant rise, with a relatively complete national scientific and technological system put in place in the country.”34YANG Xiaodan and YANG Zhirong, Transforming China from a Large Maritime Country into a Maritime Power Remains a Daunting Task, at http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2017/0920/c1002-29547939.html, 11 December 2017. (in Chinese)“Over the past decade, China has witnessed a fast development of its modern naval fleets; it currently possesses the resources sufficient enough to build a naval force with strategic influence.”35Robert Ross, ZHAO Xuedan trans., The Rise of China "s Navy: From Regional to Global Naval Forces?, Journal of International Security Studies, No. 1, 2016, pp. 13～32. (in Chinese)“The country has undergone new historic changes … its overall national strength and international competitiveness and inf l uence have been enhanced substantially”.36HU Jintao "s Report Delivered at the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, at http://news.xinhuanet.com/18cpcnc/2012-11/17/c_113711665_2.htm, 11 December 2017. (in Chinese)All these factors help provide a politically stable environment for Chinese people to live and work in peace and contentment. Second, Chinese leaders attach great importance to oceanic aあairs,which provides good internal conditions favorable to China in its participation in the activities in the Area. President XI Jinping, during the 8th collective study held by the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, stressed the need to pay more attention to the oceans, to acquire more knowledge about them and better plan the management of them, so as to attain new achievements in the building of China into a maritime power.37XI Jinping: Further Care for the Ocean, Understand and Manage the Ocean, and Make Continuous Achievements in the Eあorts to Build China into a Maritime Power, at http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2013-07/31/c_116762285.htm, 11 December 2017. (in Chinese)The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China states that, “We will pursue coordinated land and marine development, and step up eあorts to build China into a strong maritime country.”38Secure a Decisive Victory in Building a Moderately Prosperous Society in All Respects and Strive for the Great Success of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era Delivered at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, at http://news.cnr.cn/native/gd/20171027/t20171027_524003098.shtml, 18 December 2017. (in Chinese)The steady improvement of China "s comprehensive national strength, the stability of its domestic political environment and the implementation of the strategy to build China into a maritime power have laid a solid foundation for China "s participation in the activities in the Area.

2. Analysis of Internal Weaknesses

To begin with, there are some problems with the mining blocks obtained by China upon application. China has obtained four mining blocks with three major categories of minerals, however, the existing or potential problems inherent in these blocks have the potential to restrict the engagement of further activities in the Area by China. First, neither the substantive assessment of the environmental impact of these approved mining blocks, nor the evaluation of the resources in these blocks has been completed. In 2017, China Ocean Mineral Resources Research and Development Association (COMRA) and the ISA signed an agreement on the extension of the exploration contract for polymetallic nodules. The agreement requires the COMRA to supplement environmental baseline data and an environmental management plan, optimize mining technology, track and analyze the international market for metal resources in the Area, and carefully determine the opportunities to commercially exploit these resources.39FANG Zhengfei, COMRA and the ISA Signed an Agreement on the Extension of the Exploration Contract for Polymetallic Nodules, at http://www.mlr.gov.cn/xwdt/hyxw/201705/t20170515_1507699.htm, 18 December 2017. (in Chinese)Second, China "s current research focus fails to follow trends of international research in this regard.For example, developed countries have gradually turned their eyes to cobalt-rich crusts, while China still sticks to polymetallic sulphides.40HE Qinghua, LI Aiqiang and ZOU Xiangfu, Investigation Progress and Exploitation Technology of Ocean Cobalt-rich Crusts, Metal Mine, No. 5, 2005, pp. 4～7 (in Chinese);WEI Zhenquan, HE Gaowen, DENG Xiguang, YAO Huiqiang, LIU Yonggang, YANG Yong and REN Jiangbo, The Progress in the Study and Survey of Oceanic Cobalt-rich Crust Resources, Geology in China, No. 3, 2017, pp. 461～472 (in Chinese).Another case in point is, most maritime powers have started research into, and development of natural gas hydrate, biologic resources and genetic resources, all of which, however,have not received enough attention from Chinese stakeholders in those fields.Third, the minerals in the mining blocks that China obtained are low in quality.China "s mining blocks for polymetallic nodule are with low grades of resources and low densities of value metal contents. Additionally, the seabed topography of these blocks is of a complex nature. Comparatively, the initial investment per unit area required for reaching the same exploration level with the blocks of western countries is much higher.41LUAN Weixin and CAO Ying, The Exploitation Strategy of Chinese International Regional Resources and the Choice of the Critical Technology, Areal Research and Development,Vol. 24, No. 4, 2005, pp. 5～11. (in Chinese)

Second, China lags in deep-sea mining technology thereby creating a wide gap between China and developed countries in this field. Such a gap restricts the advance of its activities in the Area. Currently, “the development of deepsea resources is at a critical point, where exploitation work is going to take over exploration work.”42PENG Jianming and JU Chengwei, Global Governance of the Exploitation of Deep Sea Resources: the Governance Form, Regime and the Future, Foreign Theoretical Trends, No.11, 2016, pp. 115～123. (in Chinese)The possession of advanced deep-sea mining technology will be key to assessing a State "s capability to carry out activities in the Area.The world "s major maritime powers have invested huge sums of money and intellectual capital in developing deep-sea science and technology. China has made considerable progress with respect to deep sea exploration technology,nevertheless, “it lacks the technical capacity to conduct deep-sea mining, which needs to be improved urgently.”43ZHU Yongling, Some Thoughts on China "s Mining Operations in the International Seabed Area, Ocean Development and Management, No. 8, 2017, pp. 109～112. (in Chinese)“The percentage of China "s home-made deepsea equipment is relatively low, with nearly 95% of its marine instruments being imported from abroad. China is, technically, 15～20 years behind those with advanced technology.”44LI Yinghong and REN Xiaobo, Call from Deep Sea - Ref l ection on Development Status and Countermeasures of Deep Sea Technology, Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,No. 5, 2011, pp. 561～569. (in Chinese)“With respect to the core technology of marine resources development, China has lagged far behind the advanced countries, with key technology being controlled by the latter.”45CHENG Zhijie, China "s Ocean Strategy: Concept and Strategy, Asia-Pacific Security and Maritime Aあairs, No. 6, 2017, pp. 26～41. (in Chinese)

Third, China "s marine management system and marine legal system are not complete, resulting in its incompetence to protect its rights and interests in the distant waters or deep-sea. China has not yet established a system to manage the efforts to protect its marine rights. The lack of this established system, directly affects the progress of such efforts.46YU Zhirong, The Imperative to Improve the Management System for Marine Rights Protection in China, China Ocean News, 22 August 2014, p. 3. (in Chinese)At present, China "s fragmented marine management system, together with the relatively low administrative ranking of its marine administrative authorities, has led to a chaotic management of oceanic aあairs. All these factors directly resulted in a delicate situation where macro control is weak, but blind development and overlapping construction of projects are found everywhere in the micro field.47YU Sihao, Research on Government Institutions of Marine Administration of China under Sea Power Strategy (doctoral dissertation), Jilin: Jilin University, 2013, p. 88. (in Chinese)In China, many departments have functions for dealing with oceanic aあairs, however, their functions, rights and responsibilities,due to the absence of a unified and coordinated management system, are considerably intertwined or overlapped. Furthermore, China does not have wellestablished regulations governing and protecting its activities in the Area. China in 2016, promulgated and implemented the Law of the People "s Republic of China on the Exploration and Exploitation of Resources in Deep Seabed Area, but has not yet established a complete legal system for the oceans.

3. Analysis of External Opportunities

First, the call for peace, development, cooperation and mutual benefit has become the order of the day, providing a good external environment for China to explore and exploit the Area. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, President XI Jinping has always proposed that China should hold high the banner of peace, development, cooperation and mutual benefit, follow the path of peaceful development, and make more positive eあorts to build a new type of international relations featuring win-win cooperation.48Pushing the Tide of Times - Peace, Development, Cooperation and Mutual Benefit, at http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2016-06/02/c_129035861.htm, 16 January 2018. (in Chinese)On the whole, the international situation continues to develop in the direction of peace and stability.The international community is seeking development in peace and win-win outcomes in cooperation. As a result of the rapid globalization of politics, economy and culture in today "s world, countries are becoming more closely interconnected and interdependent. Against this backdrop, “peace, development, cooperation and mutual benefit” are, inevitably, needed in the progress of the times, and are the optimal choice of the international community. The international environment featured by peace and development, and the international consensus on win-win cooperation are favorable to China "s exploration and utilization of the Area.

Second, the current international marine system has established a basically stable and effective institutional framework for the governance of oceans. The 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), known as the contemporary “constitution of the oceans”, “is the basic document that the international community relies on to address matters relating to maritime rights and interests, and to keep the oceans and the seas in order. It has established the basic framework for the use and management of the oceans by mankind.”49YANG Zewei, International Law, 2nd edition, Beijing: Higher Education Press, 2012, p.174. (in Chinese)The UNCLOS and the 1994 Agreement Relating to the Implementation of Part XI of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea of 10 December 1982(hereinafter referred to as the “Implementation Agreement”) defined the legal status of the Area. Subsequently, the ISA was set up in accordance with the two documents, with its organization structure, scope of authority and responsibility and operation mode clearly defined. The two documents also laid down comprehensive provisions regulating the activities of human beings in the Area from many angles, including law, technology, finance, exploitation system and marine environmental protection. After entering the 21st century, the ISA issued three exploration regulations,50The ISA has so far formulated three exploration regulations: Regulations on Prospecting and Exploration for Polymetallic Nodules in the Area (adopted in 2000, revised in 2013),Regulations on Prospecting and Exploration for Polymetallic Sulphides in the Area (adopted in 2010), and Regulations on Prospecting and Exploration for Cobalt-rich Ferromanganese Crusts in the Area (adopted in 2012).which proffered a more detailed elaboration on the rules for the exploration of mineral resources in the Area. The ISA Secretary General proposed, in 2012, a Work Plan for the Formulation of Regulations for the Exploitation of Polymetallic Nodules in the Area at the 18th session of the Council of the ISA.51See International Seabed Authority, Work Plan for the Formulation of Regulations for the Exploitation of Polymetallic Nodules in the Area, ISBA/18/C/4, 2012, pp. 1～10.In 2017, the ISA secretariat issued a Discussion Paper on the Development and Drafting of Regulations on Exploitation of Mineral Resources in the Area (Environmental Matters).52See International Seabed Authority, Implementation of the Decision of the Council in 2016 Relating to the Summary Report of the Chair of the Legal and Technical Commission,ISBA/23/C/8, 2017, p. 2.It is important to note that, the ISA is actually quickening its step in the development of such exploitation regulations. These exploitation regulations would, without any doubt, provide institutional guarantee for the development of the Area by States. In sum, the current international marine system, led by the UNCLOS, provides conditions favorable to the exploitation of resources on the deep ocean fl oor.53XIAO Hanqiang, Legal Disputes over the Development of Deep Seabed Resources and the Prospect of Their Commercial Exploitation, High-Technology & Industrialization, No. 2,2009, pp. 116～119. (in Chinese)

Third, human "s demand for resources and technological advances provide the impetus for large-scale commercial mining. Human "s demand for the resources of the Area would evolve with the growing and insatiable nature of society. On the one hand, the reserves and categories of land-based resources would be reducing,while the grading of the resources and the density of value metal content would see a decline. All these factors would add to mining diきculty and cost. On the other hand, the rapid development of deep sea science and technology keeps reducing the exploitation cost and mining diきculty of the resources in the Area, and the mineral quality and deposits in the Area are much higher than those on the land, therefore,it is only a matter of time when the exploitation of the resources of the Area will take place.54James R. Hein, Kira Mizell and Andrea Koschinsky, Deep-ocean Mineral Deposits as a Source of Critical Metals for High- and Green-Technology Applications: Comparison with Land-based Resources, Ore Geology Reviews, Vol. 51, 2013, pp. 1～14.Notably, the unique biological and genetic resources of the Area play an irreplaceable role in the development of human medicine and biological life science. In this context, the exploitation of seabed resources has attracted great attention from the international community, with various maritime powers developing their plans for the commercial exploitation of seabed resources.55For example, marine mining companies of countries like the UK and Canada have announced that commercial mining will begin somewhere around 2020; countries like Japan and South Korea have finalized plans to begin exploitation within ten years; in addition,the EU has begun to invest in the research and development of deep-sea mining equipment;while the US has also made an arrangement on deep-sea mining in its document An Ocean Blueprint for the 21st Century. See PENG Jianming and JU Chengwei, Global Governance of the Exploitation of Deep Sea Resources: the Governance Form, Regime and the Future,Foreign Theoretical Trends, No. 11, 2016, pp. 115～123. (in Chinese)All of these factors have provided momentum for the large-scale exploitation of the resources in the Area, and also a golden opportunity for China to develop such resources.

4. Analysis of External Threats

The first external threat comes from the increasingly fierce competition among countries caused by their high interest in the “scramble” for mining blocks.56CHEN Mingyi, To Actively Participate in the Exploration and Exploitation of International Seabed Mineral Resources, Fujian Tribune, No. 7, 2015, pp. 24～28. (in Chinese)The Area, in recent years, has witnessed a new round of “blue enclosure movement”.First, the applications for mining blocks have surged in number. Such applications submitted to the ISA in recent years show that countries have hastened their steps to have their share of the Area.57During the period between 1996 and 2010, the ISA approved a total of eight applications to explore the resources in the Area; while from 2011 to the present, it has approved 21 applications. These facts, undoubtedly, show an obvious trend. The data is sourced from the oきcial website of the ISA, at https://www.isa.org.jm/deep-seabed-minerals-contractors, 27 July 2018.Second, the scope of the mining blocks under application extends from the Pacific Ocean to other oceans.58Prior to 2011, all the mining blocks that were applied for by States were located in the Pacific Ocean. However, after 2011, such mining blocks gradually extended to the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. This conclusion is drawn from the official website of the ISA, at https://www.isa.org.jm/deep-seabed-minerals-contractors, 13 December 2017.Third, the objects that the countries are scrambling for tend to be diversified. The species of mineral resources involved in these scrambles have changed from polymetallic nodules to cobalt-rich crusts and polymetallic sulphides, and from simply nonliving resources to new biological and genetic resources. With the rise of the “blue enclosure movement”, on the one hand, developed countries with strong capital and technical strength would speed up their pace to explore the Area; but on the other hand, countries without exploration and mining capacity would be dissatisfied and disadvantaged. In that case, hostilities or conf l icts between diあerent groups of countries are likely to intensify. Nevertheless, the UNCLOS and other international rules or regulations cannot effectively curb the scramble by the world powers for the commons.59HAN Xueqing, Freedom, Justice and Order: Ethical Reflections of Global Commons Governance, World Economics and Politics, No. 1, 2017, pp. 46～73. (in Chinese)In a word, the situation above constitutes an external factor unfavorable to China.

The second external threat arises from the uncertain future of large-scale commercial exploitation of the mineral resources in the Area caused by the uncertain economic benefits of such exploitation and the unreliable market demand for such resources. Economic benefits and market demand are two key elements that should be considered when deciding whether to exploit deep seabed resources or not.60Rahul Sharma, Deep-Sea Mining: Resource Potential, Technical and Environmental Considerations, New York: Springer International Publishing, 2017, pp. 17～19.That is to say, the expectation for full-scale commercial exploitation of seabed resources largely depends on the relationship between supply and demand of global resources. Scholars have diあerent views toward this assertion.For example, some scholars believe that large-scale commercial exploitation of deep-sea polymetallic resources is likely to take place between 2020 and 2030.61ZHANG Haiqi and XIAO Hanqiang, Prospect for the Exploitation of Deep Seabed Mineral Resources and the Countermeasures, Chinese Geology, No. 2, 1994, pp. 15～17 (in Chinese); LIU Shaojun, YANG Baohua, LIU Chang and DAI Yu, Discuss the Right Time for Commercial Exploitation of Deep-seabed Mineral Resources from International Waters in Terms of Market, Technique and Institution, Mining and Metallurgical Engineering, Vol.35, No. 4, 2015, pp. 126～129. (in Chinese)Some others argue that “[a] key driver of deep seabed mining is the underlying assumption that the demand for metals will continue to increase while the supply will peak and decline”.62Rakhyun E. Kim, Should Deep Seabed Mining Be Allowed?, Marine Policy, Vol. 82, 2017,pp. 134～137.In fact, many factors may inf l uence the global supply and demand of metals, resulting in the high uncertainty of supply and demand in the market. In practice, as the first batch of six contracts on exploration for polymetallic nodules expired in succession in 2015, all contractors have submitted applications for an extension. This fact seems to indicate, to some extent, that the conditions for large-scale commercial mining of seabed resources are not yet available at the moment.

The third threat comes from the diきculty to assess the risk of environmental damage, along with the increasingly stringent requirements on marine environmental protection. The call for marine environmental protection grows louder, with the emergence of global environmental problems and the deterioration of marine environment. First, the ISA has tightened its legislative requirements on marine environmental protection. According to the ISA regulations on prospecting and exploration for mineral resources in the Area and the draft regulations on exploitation of mineral resources in the Area, observing the precautionary principle,assessing environmental impacts and following best environmental practices have become prevalent and direct obligations for contractors and sponsoring States, thus placing higher requirements on them. Second, the advisory opinions rendered by the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) indicate that contractors and sponsoring States would assume stricter environmental responsibilities. In 2011, the Seabed Disputes Chamber of ITLOS issued an Advisory Opinion on“Responsibilities and Obligations of States Sponsoring Persons and Entities with Respect to Activities in the Area”. The Chamber chose not to adopt “common but differentiated responsibilities principle”, but held that the general provisions concerning the responsibilities and liability of the sponsoring State should apply equally to all sponsoring States, whether developing or developed. This opinion,actually, has raised the “threshold” for environmental compliance.63Responsibilities and Obligations of States Sponsoring Persons and Entities with Respect to activities in the Area (Request for Advisory Opinion Submitted to the Seabed Disputes Chamber), Case No. 17, Advisory Opinion, ITLOS, 2011, pp. 53～54, para. 158, at https://www.itlos.org/fileadmin/itlos/documents/cases/case_no_17/adv_op_010211.pdf, 4 June 2018.Thirdly, “The deep sea is the largest and least understood ecosystem on Earth”,64Sabine Christiansen et al., Towards Transparent Governance of Deep Seabed Mining, at https://www.iass-potsdam.de/sites/default/files/files/policy_brief_transparency.pdf, 15 November 2018.and “Activities in the Area face great diきculties and risks,inter alia,they may bring unpredictable impact to the deep sea environment”.65JIA Yu, Exploitation of Resources in the Area and the Sponsoring State Responsibility: New Developments in China "s Legislative Work concerning the Deep Sea, China Oceans Law Review, Vol. 2016, No. 1, pp. 11～25.This therefore makes it diきcult to assess the consequences of marine environmental damage. Consequently, this trend has placed larger and higher demands on China if it so engages in the activities in the area as it is likely to face greater challenges.

The fourth potential threat to China has to do with the unfavorable factors the ongoing development and reform of the Area regime may bring. The regime of the Area was rather controversial even before its inception. Confronted with the rise of the “blue enclosure movement”, the future development of the Area regime is uncertain. Since the exploitation regulations are still in the process of development, it is rather early to conclude whether their high-profile financial and taxation mechanism, environmental protection system, and sponsoring State regime will or will not be favorable to China. Additionally, the emergence of “new domains” in the Area, such as biological resources, showcases some limitations of the current international legal system of the sea.66Sunil Kr. Agarwal, Legal Issues in the Protection of Marine Biological Diversity Beyond National Jurisdiction, Maritime Aあairs: Journal of the National Maritime Foundation of India, Vol. 11, No. 1, 2015, pp. 84～98.A new round of legal battle on rules will, inevitably, be restaged. Another unstable factor is that the parallel system is being disturbed. “The substantive provisions on the regime for seabed resources exploitation are prepared on the basis of the parallel system.”67ZHANG Yen-Chiang, Law of the Sea, Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 2015, p. 266. (in Chinese)However, the ISA exploration regulations tell that the parallel system has been “disturbed”, further resulting in the “erosion” of associated regime for reserved areas. Developed countries apply the joint venture system, successfully avoiding the regime for reserved areas.68ZHANG Dan, Study on Legal Regime of the International Seabed Area - Centered [on]Reserved Area and Parallel System, Pacific Journal, No. 3, 2014, pp. 12～18. (in Chinese)“As technology advances and international relations evolve, the system for the exploitation of the international seabed … would, necessarily, see further development.”69YANG Zewei, Major Deficiencies of the UNCLOS and Their Improvement, Law Review,No. 5, 2012, pp. 57～64. (in Chinese)The path leading to a new regime for the Area will not be even; instead, age-old disagreements or diあerences may be laid on the table again.70Aline Jaeckel, Jeff A. Ardron and Kristina M. Gjerde, Sharing Benefits of the Common Heritage of Mankind - Is the Deep Seabed Mining Regime Ready?, Marine Policy, Vol. 70,2016, pp. 198～204.

To sum up, China has its own unique strengths and also inherent weaknesses regarding its engagement in the activities in the Area. Nevertheless, there still lies for China unprecedented opportunities, albeit encounters of fierce competition and unpredictable risks. An analysis of China "s internal strengths and weaknesses as well as its external opportunities and threats helps to bring up a reasonable,visualized, objective, and full picture of China "s strategic choices with respect to the activities in the Area. (See Table 1)

III. Using the AHP in the SWOT Analysis of China "s Participation in the Activities in the Area

The factors aあecting decision making may be evaluated and matched by using the SWOT model. On this basis, AHP could be applied to establish a multi-level hierarchical structure of these factors and judge the relative weight of each factor.This method may help an organization assess its strategic alternatives in a more objective and scientific way.

Table 1 S trateg y M atrix for C hina "s P articipation in th e Activities in the Area Strength s (S)S1: C hina "s adv antage in terms of the types and num ber o f its appro ved m ining blocks;S2: R apid development of deep-sea science and technology;S3: S trong com preh ensive national strength,and an obv ious edge over others in terms of the social and po litical system.Weaknesses (W)W1: T here are som e pro blem s w ith the m ining blocks that C hina has obtained;W2: C hina "s d eep-sea m in in g techn olog y is inferior to others;arin W3: C hina "s m e m an agem en t system and marine legal system are not com plete.Oppo: T rtunities (O)O1 he call for p eace and develo pm en t remains the o rder of the day;tion O2: T he cu rren t interna al m arin e system has establish ed a stable and eあective institutional framework;an O3: H um an "s d em d for resou rc es gives imp etus to large-scale com mercial exArea.ploitation of the m ineral resou rces in the SO(aggressive strategy)1. T o activ ely eng ag e in the activ ities in the A rea by takin g advan tage of the stable in(S2. T tern atio nal and do mestic env iron ment 3, Oo c 1, Oon 2);tinuof d e theeepa rapid d ev elopced for mean ntd mochmm meno ntumgy p-se a scienun teco(S lo, a nd ve th e g ro ercial explo itatio n of such resou rces 1, S 2, O 3).WO(turnaround strategy)1. Td e o imp rolishag ve Ca u hina "s m arin e legoo al system an stab nified an d c rd in ated maritime m an em en t agency w ith a h ig her administrative ranking (O2, W 3);2. T o exp ed ite the com pletio n o f the survey and evaluatio n of the “mining blocks” appn and lied,an d to q uick en tech no lo gy im po rtatio innovation by fostering international exchanges(O 3, W 1, W 2).Threats (T)T1: F ierce scram ble for m in in g b lo ck s in the Area;nc T2: U erta in fu tu re fo r large-sca le comm: T ercial exploitation ome f such resources;e T3 ou gh er req uire nts o n m arin enviro nmnfav ental protection;T4: U orab le facto rs that the o ng oing developm ent o f the A rea regim e m ay bring to C hina.ST(diversification strateg y)1. T o furth er e nh an ce C hina "s o ve rall nationand m4);al stren gth as w ell as its ability to plan3, T an age its activities in the A rea(S2. T 1, T o carefully survey, stu dy and assess the,resources and environment of the A rea (S1 S2, T 2, T 3).WT(defensive strategy)blem 1. T o solve th e p ro s existin g in the approved m ining blocks or give up these blocks(W2. T 1, W 2, W 3, T 2);o slow dow4);ttin n its activities in the A rea (W2,W3, To lea 1, T 3, T 3. T rn cu g-ed ge te ch no lo gy an d managerial expertise from developed countries(W 2, W 3).

AHP71Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was developed in the early 1970s by Thomas L. Saaty,a Professor of Operations Research at the University of Pittsburgh. AHP is considered to be a model for combining both quantitative and qualitative analysis. Typically, users of AHP first identify the main factors aあecting a problem, and then structure a hierarchical model based on the correlation or aきliation between the factors. The third step is to determine the relative importance of each factor by comparing them to each other two at a time. The fourth step is to make a comprehensive judgment to determine the ranking of the relative importance of these factors. See HAN Xiaojing, Applying the AHP method in SWOT Analysis, Information Research, No. 5, 2006, pp. 119～122. (in Chinese)is a decision analytical method that combines quantitative with qualitative analysis. It is employed typically in the study of complex, multiobjective, multi-criteria, and multi-level decision-making problems, especially strategic ones.72TAO Changqi and SHENG Jiliang eds., Decision Theory and Method, Beijing: Higher Education Press, 2016, p. 127. (in Chinese)When using the AHP method to analyze strategic decision-making,it generally involves four principal steps. The first step is to establish a hierarchical structure. The first hierarchy of the structure is the overall goal, followed by factors and sub-factors. The second step is comprised of three sub-steps. The first substep involves the establishment of the pairwise comparison matrix for each element based on an element of the upper hierarchy. The second sub-step computes the eigenvalue and eigenvector of each sub-factor based on the pairwise comparison matrix. The third sub-step performs the consistency test. The third step is to compute the final weight of each factor with respect to its importance to the goal by using weighting method. Finally, the fourth step of the AHP method is to build a strategic quadrilateral model through the results of step 3, calculate the gravity center of the quadrilateral and select the optimal strategy.73Gregory P. Prastacos, LI Hui trans., Managerial Decision Making: Theory and Practice,Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 2011, pp. 104～108. (in Chinese)

A. Hierarchical Structure Analysis for China "s Participation in the Activities in the Area

Table 2 shows the multi-indicator hierarchical structure built on the basis of the SWOT analysis for selecting the optimal strategy for China to participate in the activities in the Area.

Table 2 H i erarchica l S tructu re o f F actors Aあecting C hina "s S election of S trategy to P articipate in the Activities in the Area Overall g oal System atic hierarchies Variable hierarchies To id entify the strategic alternatives for C hina to take p art in the activ ities in the Area Strength s(S)S1: C hina "s advantage in terms of the types and num ber of its approved m ining blocks;S2: R ap id developm ent of deep-sea science and technology;S3: S trong com prehensive n ational strength, and an obv io us edge over others in terms of the social and political system.Weaknesses(W)W1: T: C here are som e problem s w ith the m ining b lo cks that C hina has obtained;ap W2 hina lags in d eep-sea m ining technology thereby creating a w id e g betw een C hina and developed countries in this fi eld;W3: C hina "s m arine m anagem ent system and leg al system for the deep sea are n ot com plete.Opportunities(O)O1: T: T he call for peace and development rem ains the order of the day;O2 he current internation al m arin e system h as estab lish ed a b asically stab le and effectiv e institutional framework;O3: G lo bal d em an d for resou rces g iv es imp etus to large-scale com mercial exp lo itatio n o f the mineral resources in the Area.Threats (T)T1: C om petition is increasin gly fierce amo ng co un tries b ecau se o f their h ig h interest in the“scram ble” for seabed resources;T2: T he tim e w hen the m ineral resou rces in the Area w ill be exploited com mercially in large scale is unpredictable, due to the u ncertain econom ic benef i ts of such exploitation and the unreliable m arket demand for these resources;T3: T ou gh er req uirements o n m arin e env iron mental p ro tectio n m ay po ssib ly co nstrain the deployment of the activities in the A rea;T4: T he ongoing reform of the Area regim e m ay bring factors unfavorab le to C hina.

B. Determination of the Relative Importance of Each Factor and Calculation of the Eigenvector of the Comparison Matrix

AHP scale of importance, being an essential method used in the AHP model,is also an important approach to quantifying judgment. Professor T. L. Saaty compared this method with other scale methods, and conducted a lot of simulation experiments, proving that this method is more effective in quantifying thinking judgment.74TAO Changqi ed., Decision Theory and Method, Beijing: China Renmin University Press,2010, pp. 114～115. (in Chinese)Therefore, a pairwise comparison judgment matrixAfor a group of elements (see Table 4) can be constructed by comparing the four groups of SWOT elements in pairs and quantifying the relative importance of every two elements according to Table 3. The strength group would be taken as an example in this paper.

Table 3 AHP Scale of Importance for Comparison Pairs

Table 4 Pairwise Comparison Judgment Matrix A for the Factors of the Strength Group

Judgment matrixA′ was obtained by normalizing the columns of the strength group matrix:

Table 5 Judgment Matrix A′ Obtained after Normalizing the Columns of the Strength Group Matrix

The eigenvector of the comparison matrix of the strength group can be obtained by adding the judgment values in each row after column normalization.And the eigenvector provides the priority ordering (weight) of each indicator: G =[0.110，0.309，0.581]T. The eigenvalue of the comparison matrix of the strength group is calculated as follows:

We then calculate the maximum eigenvalue for the matrix,

C. Consistency Test for Each Group of Factors

The consistency index (CI) is calculated asfollows:=0.0018. According to the average randomconsistency index at the same level shown in Table 6, the random index (RI) for level 3 is 0.58. The consistency ratioThis result indicates that the judgment matrix has an acceptable consistency.

Table 6 Average Random Consistency Index

The pairwise comparison matrices for the weakness group, the opportunity group and the threat group could be drawn in the same way. The mean vector,maximum eigenvalue, and the results of consistency check for each group are shown, upon calculation, in the following tables:

Table 7 Comparison Judgment Matrix for the Weakness Group

Table 8 Comparison Judgment Matrix for the Opportunity Group

Table 9 Comparison Judgment Matrix for the Threat Group

D. Building of a Strategic Quadrilateral Model for China "s Participation in the Activities in the Area through Calculating the Total Strength of Each Factor

The total strength of each factor is the sum of the strength of each sub-factor,and the strength of each sub-factor is determined by its weight and intensity.

Table 10 Strength Calculation of Each Factor

E. China "s Choice of Strategy to Participate in the Activities in the Area

The coordinates of total strengths of the factor strength (ΣS), weakness (ΣW),opportunity (ΣO), and threat (ΣT) are drawn in the two-dimensional quadrantal coordinate system of SWOT model. Based on that, astrategic quadrilateral is created to facilitate China to select a optimal strategy to participate in the activities in the Area. (See Fig. 2)

The strategic quadrilateral built on the basis of SWOT analysis reflects,comprehensively, the four major factors affecting China "s ability to participate in the activities in the Area, which can provide reference for China when it tries to choose a strategy to participate in such activities. The quadrant of the gravity center of the strategic quadrilateral corresponds to the strategy China should select to engage in the activities in the Area. It is not diきcult to figure out that the coordinates of the gravity center P (0.025, 0.086) are located at the first quadrant.In that case, China should adopt an SO strategy (aggressive strategy) to participate in the activities in the Area.

IV. Conclusions and Recommendations

A. Conclusions

Fig. 2 Strategic Quadrilateral Facilitating China to Choose Its Strategy to Participate in the Activities in the Area

After applying the SWOT-AHP model to analyze the internal strengths and weaknesses, and external opportunities and threats of China when it participates in the activities in the Area, the paper builds a strategic quadrilateral for China. Based on the analysis above, the paper then comes to the following conclusions.

First, China may, on the whole, adopt an SO strategy (aggressive strategy) to participate in the activities in the Area at the current stage. The overall environment is relatively favorable to China. The SWOT-AHP analysis shows that the gravity center P (0.025, 0.086) of the strategic quadrilateral, with regard to China "s participation in the activities in the Area, is located at the first quadrant. It means that China "s strengths and opportunities outweigh its weaknesses and threats,and therefore the overall environment is suitable for China to participate in the activities in the Area. The numerical values of the coordinates of the gravity center P (0.025, 0.086), however, indicate that China "s strengths and opportunities only slightly outweigh its weaknesses and threats. Hence, China should not ignore its weaknesses and threats when it plans and manages its activities in the Area.

Second, prominent factors can be identified as strengths, weaknesses,opportunities and threats of China affecting its ability to participate in the activities in the Area. In this respect, China "s greatest strength comes from S3(i.e., the steady rise of its comprehensive national strength, and its obvious edge over others in terms of social and political system). This indicates that strong comprehensive national strength effectively ensures China "s speeding up of its pace to manage its activities in the Area. China "s biggest internal weakness is W2(i.e., the inferiority of its deep-sea mining technology), which means that China "s inferior deep-sea technology is its “shortest stave” aあecting its ability to participate in the activities in the Area. China "s biggest external opportunity is O3 (the call for peace, development, cooperation and mutual benefit has become the order of the day), meaning that a peaceful and stable international environment provides the external guarantee for China to participate in such activities. Among all the external threats, two sub-factors, namely T3 (the difficulty to assess the risk of marine environmental damage, along with the increasingly stringent requirements on marine environmental protection), and T2 (uncertain future of large-scale commercial exploitation of the mineral resources in the Area caused by the uncertain economic benefits of such exploitation and the unreliable market demand for such resources), have more weightiness than others. This fact indicates that the pressure of marine environmental protection and the uncertain future of largescale commercial exploitation pose a challenge to China and its engagement in the activities in the Area.

Third, a country "s ability to plan and manage its activities in the Area is,in essence, ultimately determined by its overall national strength. The Area is a new frontier of the commons that has not been fully explored by human beings.To participate in the activities in the Area, a country is required to have a high scientific and technological level, strong financial strength and obvious institutional advantages. Currently, the call for peace, development, cooperation and mutual benefit has become the order of the day, with basically stable and effective international marine system put in place. The two factors provide an environment favorable to each country to explore and exploit the Area. Nevertheless, without strong comprehensive national strength, advanced deep-sea technology and marine scientific research, sufficient funds and risk bearing capacity, or stable political system, the plan to explore and exploit the Area could only be “a mare "s nest”.

B. Recommendations

First, China should pay more attention to designing an overall plan for its activities in the Area. Human exploration of the Area is still in its infancy.Predictably, with the continuous discovery of the value of the Area, the Area would inevitably witness more and more activities conducted by countries around the world. Against this backdrop, China should plan ahead and speed up its pace to make the overall arrangement for its activities in the Area. Specifically, China should do a good job in three aspects:

(a) China should promote the development of its deep-sea exploration and exploitation technology, marine research and environmental protection in a harmonious way. The conduct of the activities in the Area is preconditioned on the improvement of exploration technology; exploitation technology is crucial to the deployment of such activities; marine scientific research paves the way for such activities; and while carrying out these activities, the bottom line is that the environment should be well protected. Since “cannikin law” is applicable in this case,75The “cannikin law” is also known as the barrel theory. This theory instructively demonstrates that in a barrel, with staves of unequal length, the capacity of the barrel, representing the overall strength and competitiveness of an organization, is determined by the shortest stave,and not the longest. This is also true for the growth of any organization. In an organization with strengths and weaknesses, the overall performance of the organization is often decided by its weaknesses. Only when all parts of an organization develop together in constant equilibrium, can its overall strength and competitiveness be improved.only the coordinated development of the four elements above can maximize the overall benefits that the activities in the Area may bring to China;

(b) China should boost the coordinated development of its marine legal system and marine management system. The legal system provides the legal basis and institutional guarantee for China to participate in the activities in the Area, while the management system is responsible for supervising and managing China "s implementation of such activities. The two complement each other and neither is dispensable.

(c) China should enhance coordinated development of research and exploitation of various resources within the Area. The Area has attracted wide attention due to its impressive containment of mineral resources; however, in recent years, the value of its biological resources, microbial resources and genetic resources has also been gradually recognized. Therefore, all categories of resources should be studied and explored in line with an overall plan and in a coordinated manner.

Second, in the process of planning and managing its activities in the Area,China should develop and leverage its internal strengths, reduce its weaknesses,actively exploit external development opportunities, predict and counteract its external threats in advance, and speed up its pace to participate in the activities in the Area. On the one hand, China should maintain the steady growth of its comprehensive national strength, adhere to the principle of peaceful use and development of the Area, and actively join in global governance efforts directed toward ocean issues. On the other hand, China should lengthen its “shortest stave”in time, increase investment in deep-sea research and technology, and narrow its technological gap with developed States with the least delay possible. In addition,China should enhance, both from the legal and technical perspectives, its study on marine environmental protection, and scientifically and objectively evaluate and predict the economic benefits of and the market demands for the resources in the Area. It should also strive for a greater voice in the global arena, so as to facilitate its engagement in the activities in the Area.

Last but not least, when planning and conducting activities in the Area, China should watch its pace, but not rush for quick profits. Given their limited scientific and technological capacity, human beings do not have suきcient knowledge about the Area. In this regard, there is still a long way to go in appreciating and appraising the Area and its activities. As mentioned above, Exploitation Regulations, a precondition for large-scale commercial exploitation of the mineral resources in the Area, are still being formulated. At present, countries and stakeholders are fighting fiercely for their own interests on the formulation of regulations. Since the fight is not over,76HE Zongyu, LIN Jinggao, YANG Baohua and LIU Shaojun, The Progress and Viewpoints on the Development of the Regulations for Mineral Exploitation in the Area, Pacific Journal, No. 10, 2016, pp. 9～17. (in Chinese)it is uncertain when the Exploitation Regulations will be issued. China should join further in the efforts to formulate the Exploitation Regulations, if it seeks to make its voice heard in the arena of deep-sea mining. Additionally, largescale commercial exploitation of resources in the Area is, necessarily, decided by economic benefits and market demand; as the global metal market is aあected by many factors, the prospect of such exploitation requires further evaluation.Meanwhile, with China "s rather insufficient research on the ecosystem and marine environmental protection in the Area, there still lies high risk of causing environmental damages. Keeping these facts in mind, the author asserts that China should not be too hasty while participating in the activities in the Area.