中国过度教育的测度

李建民+陈洁

摘 要： 大学生就业难引起了中国关于过度教育的争论，然而过度教育研究的基石——过度教育的测度一直有其局限性，本文提出了一种标准化方法，用美国各职业的教育准入标准来测度中国的过度教育，发现目前我国呈现出“高端过度、低端不足”的格局，过度教育者主要分布在办事人员和商业服务业，教育不足者主要是单位负责人和生产运输业从业者。基于这种测度方法使用第三期中国妇女社会地位调查数据分析了性别、年龄、婚姻等因素对过度教育发生率的影响，运用工具变量解决了忽略个人异质性带来的内生性问题。研究发现女性相较于男性更容易出现教育过度；年轻者较年长者更易于出现教育过度；已婚者比未婚者更易于出现教育过度；教育程度越高，越容易出现教育过度。我国目前存在高学历者的过度供给，但这不能通过否定和抑制高等教育的发展来解决，而是要以人力资本储备为支撑，促进产业升级和职业结构的合理转变。

关键词： 标准化测度方法；教育过度；教育不足

中图分类号： G40-051；F062.3 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-4149（2017）05-0034-11 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2017.05.004

Estimation Over Education in China：

Based on the Standards of Vocation Entry-level Education in the US

LI Jianmin， CHEN Jie

（Institute of Population and Development Research， Nankai University， Tianjin 300071，China）

Abstract： The difficulty of getting a job for graduates arouses controversy over whether there is over education in China， but the cornerstone of over education research-the measurement of over education has its limitation， so this paper puts forward entry-level education of the occupation in the United States to measure China s over education. It has been found that under education of primary level and over education of high level largely exist at the same time. Over education mainly exists in the staff and business services and under education is mainly engaged in executives and the production and transportation occupation. Then using the data of the Third Wave Survey on the Social Status of Women in China analyzes the influence of gender， age， marital status and other factors on the incidence of over education based on this measurement method. The instrument variable is used to solve the endogenous problems caused by ignoring individual heterogeneity. This study reveals that compared with women， men are more likely to occur over education； younger people are more prone to over education； married people are more prone to over education； the people with higher education level are more prone to over education. There is over supply of highly educated persons in China， we should reserve human capital to support and promote the industry upgrading and rational transformation of occupational structure rather than denying and suppressing the development of higher education to solve this problem.

Keywords： standard measurement； over education； under education

一、引言

近年来我国高校毕业生就业难、企业招工难现象同时存在且日益突出。2015年我国新生劳动力达到1500万人，全年能够提供的就业岗位仅1200多万个，存在供求缺口；然而近10年我国人力资源市场总体求人倍率却是从0.88∶ 1上升到1.04∶ 1， 显示出市场岗位需求大于求职人数一方面是劳动力市场上的強劲需求，一方面是大量高学历人才找不到工作，教育发展与市场需求是否匹配成为一个值得思考的问题，中国真的教育过度了吗？社会上存在着中国教育过度是真命题还是伪命题的广泛争论，要清晰回答这一问题，合理测度我国的过度教育至关重要。endprint