杨潜叶叶蜂危害程度及危险性分析

穆喜云1 李显玉1* 敖铁胜　李秀华　徐国力　杨旭亮　芦特

摘 要：楊潜叶叶蜂（Messa taianensis Xiao et Zhou）在内蒙古地区被首次发现。通过调查研究，对杨潜叶叶蜂进行危害程度等级划分及危险性分析，并参照有害生物危险性分析（Pest Risk Analysis，简写PRA）方法，对杨潜叶叶蜂的危险性进行定量分析。结果表明，失叶率（%）与虫口密度（条/百叶）呈指数曲线拟合关系，决定系数为0.964，验证模型的平均估测精度为86.508%。杨潜叶叶蜂的危害程度等级为轻度（虫口数量<60条/百叶）、中度（61～124条/百叶）、重度（>125条/百叶）。危险性综合评价值R为1.62，介于中度危险范围（1.5≤R<2.0），属于中度危险性生物。

关键词： 杨潜叶叶蜂;危害分级;危险性分析

中图分类号 S763.38  文献标识码 A文章编号 1007-7731（2021）17-0125-03

Risk Analysis and Damage Degree on Messa taianensis Xiao et Zhou

MU XiYun1 et al.

（1Forestry Research Institute of Chifeng， Chifeng 024000， China）

Abstract： Messa taianensis Xiao et Zhou was first discovered in Inner Mongolia， through the investigation we done the research on the damage degree grading and danger risk analysis. The loss rate of leaf （%） and population density of one hundred leaf of Messa taianensis Xiao et Zhou performed as exponential curve better fitting relationship. The model determination coefficient was 0.964 and the average estimate precision of the validation model was 86.508%. Its damage degree grade can be divided into mild （population quantity<60 item/ hundred leaf）， medium （61～124 item/hundred leaf） and severe （>125 item/hundred leaf）. Reference with the Pest Risk Analysis （Pest Risk Analysis， （PRA） method， we done the quantitative analysis of the danger of the pest and calculated the risk value R was 1.62， between moderately risk range： 1.5≤R<2.0， belongs to the moderately dangerous creature.

Key words： Messa taianensis Xiao et Zhou; Damage degree;Risk Analysis