Bullet Trains Are Transforming the World’s Biggest Migration高铁改变全球最大规模的人口流动

李小华

Hundreds of millions of Chinese cram onto trains to make the annual pilgrimage1 home for the Lunar New Year holiday. It’s a crowded and often uncomfortable experience that is rapidly being transformed by the country’s push2 into the world of high-speed rail.

China already has the globe’s longest bullet-train network， but it’s plowing3 3.5 trillion yuan （$556 billion） into expanding its railway system by 18% over the next two years， to 150，000 kilometers， or more than 93，000 miles.

Much of that will be spent on extending the high-speed network westward， which includes parts of the country that ancient Chinese poet Li Bai once lamented4 were so mountainous that getting there was as challenging as reaching the sky.

Almost 400 million people—that’s more than the U.S. population5—will travel by train over the Lunar New Year， also known as Spring Festival. China’s factories and offices shut down for the week-long holiday， which unleashes6 the largest migration of humans on the planet. Many of the country’s 1.4 billion citizens return to their hometowns for family gatherings， or， increasingly， are taking the chance to be tourists both at home and abroad.

While the advent of cut-price flights has dimmed7 the appeal of rail travel in other parts of the world， in China it’s on the rise. The Spring Festival in 2017 saw a record 10.96 million trips on one day， and for the first time more people took bullet trains than conventional ones， according to official data.

Almost nonexistent in China a decade ago， high-speed rail has exploded， with more than half of the 25，000-kilometer network built between 2013 and 2017. The plan is to expand it by more than 50% by 2025， with eight main bullet-train lines running from east to west8 by 2030. China intends to have another eight main lines running from north to south as well.

That will open up the network—which was initially focused on setting up high-speed connections9 in major economic hubs along China’s wealthier east coast—to the less developed west.

“These lines provide ample capacity during peak travel periods such as the Lunar New Year and in other times can stimulate growth in tourism and other businesses in the service sector in western China，” said Sun Zhang， a railway expert at Tongji University in Shanghai. “High-speed rail will help to bridge economic imbalances between China’s east and west.”

The latest of the westward bullet-train lines opened in December 2017， and connects Chengdu， the capital of Sichuan province， to Xi’an， a city in China’s northwest famed for the Terracotta Warriors.

With a top speed of 250 kilometers an hour， the high-speed rail cuts through the region’s mountainous terrain in a quarter of the time taken by a regular train. The cost—which starts10 at 263 yuan （$42） for a single-trip ticket—is about half that of a one-way flight.

Chen Gaozhi， a businessman who lives in Xi’an， traveled the route last year. He took a high-speed train back to his hometown in Sichuan just days ahead of the New Year holiday， which started Feb. 15， 2018.

“I’ve always flown back home during the Lunar New Year over the past 10 years， but 70% to 80% of the time the flights would get delayed，” Gaozhi said. “The worst experience was four years ago when I had a flight back to Xi’an after the New Year scheduled at six in the afternoon， but the plane didn’t take off until midnight.”

Last Spring Festival， people made an estimated 390 million rail trips in the 40 days starting February， the typical travel period for the holiday. That was up 8.8% from a year earlier， and almost double the 200 million trips made in 2010. Four of the eight high-speed lines going from east to west are already in operation.

The last time Gaozhi took a train back for the holiday was when he was in college， and it took more than 16 hours. This time， he said， “It’ll only take three hours for me to go home.”

每年中国都有几亿人挤上火车，踏上返乡旅途，欢度农历新年。这种拥挤不堪、令人不适的乘车体验，正在因中国高铁的大力发展而快速改变。

中国已拥有全球里程最长的高铁路网，尽管如此，中国在未来两年里仍将再投资3.5万亿元（合5560亿美元），使全国铁路路网总长增加18%，达到15万公里，即9.3万多英里。

投资大多用于高铁网络的西部拓展建设。沿线地区群山叠嶂，昔日行路难于上青天，难怪古代诗人李白曾因此叹惜。

在农历新年即春节期间，中国乘坐火车出行的人数将近4亿，超过了美国总人口数。中国的工厂和各个单位停工休假一周，从而触发了全球规模最大的人口流动。中国有14亿人口，其中大多会返乡与家人团聚，同时也有越来越多的人借此机会在国内外旅游。

自从航空公司推出折扣机票以来，乘坐火车出行的吸引力在世界其他地区已经减弱，但在中国却与日俱增。官方数据显示，2017年春节创下了单日客流量1096万人次的历史新高，同时高铁客流量首次超过普铁客流量。

十年前中国基本上还没有高铁，但如今中国高铁的发展一日千里，路网规模已达2.5万公里，其中半数以上为2013年至2017年间铺设完成。中国计划到2025年将高铁路网规模扩大50%以上，到2030年年底建成“八横”高铁干线。中国还有意铺设“八纵”干线。

这样，中国高铁网络将会把欠发达的西部地区纳入其中——在建设初期，该网络只是为了在相对富裕的东部沿海地区主要经济中心之间建立起高速连接。

“这些线路为农历新年等客流高峰期提供充足的运力保障，在其他时段则能刺激中国西部旅游等服务业的发展。”上海同济大学的铁路专家孙章说，“高铁有助于缓解中国东西部经济发展的不平衡。”

2017年12月，最新建成的西行高铁线路开通运营，它连通了四川省会成都和以兵马俑闻名的西北城市西安。

此条高铁线路穿山越岭，最高时速可达250公里，全程运行时间是普通列车的1/4。单程票价最低263元（合42美元），约为单程机票的一半。

常住西安的商人陈高志（音译）去年经由此线出行。他在2月15日农历新年假期开始前几日乘上高铁，回四川老家过年。

“十年来我一直都是坐飞机回老家过年，但航班十有八九都会晚点。”陈高志说，“最糟糕的一次是在四年前。那次我年后坐飞机回西安，原定下午六点的飞机，直到半夜才起飞。”

据估算，去年春节，从2月开始为期40天的春运时段里，铁路客流量达到3.9亿人次，同比增长8.8%，与2010年2亿人次的客流量相比，几乎翻了一番。在“八横”高铁线路中，已有四条投入运营。

陳高志上次乘火车返乡过年还要追溯到他上大学期间，当时他用了16个多小时。而这回，他说：“只要3个小时我就到家了。”