基于SEM的三峡工程农村移民后期扶持参与行为意向研究

汪洋 张爽

摘要：因工程项目开发建设导致的农村移民后期安置补偿问题是影响社会稳定的重要风险因素。以重庆市涪陵区三峡工程移民为研究对象进行问卷调查，从农村移民的需求层次、个人认知和村庄特征3个方面选取变量，利用结构方程模型对后期扶持农村移民公众参与的行为逻辑进行路径分析。结果表明，农村移民在建设项目完成后生活贫困现象较为严重，表现为高贫困率、低就业率和低收入等特征;后期扶持工程略显疲软的根本原因在于难以把握农村移民的关键需求，农村移民对后期扶持的参与程度较低;农村移民基于后期扶持的参与行为受其行为意向影响显著，而行为意向受工程移民需求层次、个人认知和村庄特征的综合影响;迎合农村移民的需求、构建有效参与平台和政策保障是促进工程移民有效参与的重要举措。

关键词：移民;后期扶持;行为意向;结构方程模型（SEM）

中图分类号：D632.4         文献标识码：A

文章编号：0439-8114（2019）08-0141-04

DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2019.08.033           开放科学（资源服务）标识码（OSID）：

Abstract： The resettlement compensation problem of rural migrants caused by the development and construction of engineering projects has become an important risk factor affecting social stability. A questionnaire survey was conducted taking the immigration of the Three Gorges Project in Fuling district of Chongqing as the research object. Selecting variables from the three aspects of rural immigrants' demand level， individual cognition and village characteristics， the structural equation model was used to analyze the behavior logic of the rural public participation during the post-migration support program. The results show that the rural migrants have more serious living poverty after the completion of the construction project， which is characterized by high poverty rate， low employment rate and low income. The fundamental reason for the slight weakness of the post-migration support program is that it is difficult to grasp the key needs of rural migrants， and the participation of rural migrants is relatively low. The participation behavior of rural immigrants in the post-migration support program is significantly affected by their behavioral intentions， which is affected by the comprehensive level of project immigration needs， personal cognition and village characteristics. Catering to the needs of rural immigrants， building an effective participation platform and policy guarantees are important measures to promote the effective participation of engineering immigrants.

Key words： rural immigrant; post-migration support program; behavioral intention; structural equation modeling （SEM）

隨着经济增长极的偏移，发展中国家将面临着重大工程项目建设的蓬勃兴起，重大工程项目的开发建设成为区域社会经济发展的重要切入点[1-3]。据统计，1984—2003年，全世界大约有2.5亿～3.0亿人因水利、交通等重大工程项目的开发建设需要而成为非自愿性农村移民[4]。这些农村移民的安置补偿大多采取现金、住房、土地补偿等一次性方式，缺乏补偿机制的延续性和时代性，因此后工程时期大多数农村移民均面临着安置后基本利益难以保障、基本生活难以维持的困境[5]。后期扶持是重大工程项目开发建设中以政府为主导，旨在解决农村移民安置后基本生产生活经济问题的重要补偿手段[6]。然而由于缺乏农村移民的有效参与，后期扶持往往达不到既定目标效果，扶持方向和力度滞后于社会经济的发展速度和农村移民的需求程度[7]。