THE ANALYSIS OF THE PREDICTABILITY OF LOTTERY NUMBER

Abstract：The article first briefly review the origin and development of the lottery， sums up the previous literature， think the lottery is random lottery and is predictable； Then， through the analysis of the mechanics of the SSC of the ratio of betting amount to award setting and the winning probability， combined with the trend and probability theory， this paper proposes a lottery number prediction method； Finally， as for the proposed prediction method with practice， using the method of historical data test and practical test， the effectiveness of the methods made records and statistics， prove the feasibility of lottery prediction and the prediction method is effective.

Key words：SSC； Predict； Probability； Tendency； The law of large Numbers

1. Introduction

In recent years， China's lottery industry booming， lottery sales has expanded steadily， the lottery ticket public welfare fund raising quantity has grown steadily. Forward-looking industry institute released "2014-2018 China's lottery market foresight strategic planning and investment analysis report， according to data in 2012， the national lottery sales reached 250 billion yuan， for the first time reached 261.524 billion yuan， compared with 18.0%. During 2013 ， the total sales of lottery tickets is 309.325 billion yuan， an increase of 47.801 billion yuan over last year. With the development of lottery industry， the number of punters in China continues to grow， according to the statistics， the long-term small lottery players have become the mainly of lottery consumers （Liu， &Liu， 2012）， at the same time， on the network also is filled with a large number of false trap about lottery predictions （Li， 2010）， by the known online literature found that the current domestic official for lottery prediction in terms of academic research is almost zero， a large number of academic literature preference based on the official position of the probability of winning the lottery （Shen， 2012）， bonus， social influence， network scheme and the future development of lottery industry， most of them were standing on the ground of punters， exactly about lottery prediction method is almost no research， and in this article will analysis about the predictability of lottery， combining the theory of forecast random events of the securities industry， targeted some forecast indexes and prediction methods aregiven， I hope can give some help to the punters.

1.1 Purpose of the Study

The purpose of this report is to analysis if the lottery number ispredictable， and then put forward some measures and suggestions to improve the chance of punters to win. Answers to the following questions are provided：

Whether the lottery number is predictable？

Why the lottery number is predictable？

What is the nature of lottery and its relationship with gambling？

How to predict the lottery number？

How about the effect of the forecast method？

1.2 Definitions

The following terms are defined to assist the readers：

SSC. A kind of lottery is issued by ChongQing， and every 10 minutes open a prize number. If the number you buy is one of the prize number， you get the prize.

The law of large number. In a random event， with the increase of the number of test， the frequency of the incident to be a stable value （Dong， 1990）.

1.3 Methods and Procedures

A theoretical basisresearch was conducted through traditional and electronic searches of periodicals， books and the Internet. Anda experimentalrecords was recorded during Dec. 08 to Dec. 11 with 130 times， in order to prove the predict method is effect.

2. Findings

The nature of lottery isgambling. Its charm lies in the lottery can provide to everyone an equal and legitimate way， to satisfy human's natural desire to get rid of the moral responsibility， namely the winner doesn't have any uncomfortable because of the rich overnight psychological burden， and the recipients of the lottery also because the two sides do not meet each other，so they are without any moral responsibility or obligation.

2.1 The theory basis for lottery prediction

In a random event， with the increase of the number of test， the frequency of the incident to a stable value （Dong， 1990）； At the same time， in the practice of the physical quantity measurement， a large number of measured values of arithmetic average also has the stability. The law of large numbers is a kind of description when large experiments and shows the probability of the laws of nature， some random event is not regular， but a lot of random events is regular， These "regular random events" under the condition of a large number of repeated， often presents the necessary statistical characteristic， this is the law of large Numbers （Lin， 2005）.

In a large number of random phenomenon， not only the frequency of the incident has stability， and large number of random phenomena average results may also have this kind of stability （Wei， 1983）； The behavior of a single random phenomena of large number of random phenomenon common produce the total average results are mostly insignificant （La， 2007）， That is to say， although the individual the realization of a random phenomenon inevitably cause random deviation， work together in a large number of random phenomenon， however， due to the random deviation to offset each other， compensation and trim， the total average results can be stable （Probability theory， 1979）. What is we mainly follow in the lottery is the Bernoulli theorem of the large number （Dong， 1990）.

2.2 The prediction theory of application

2.2.1 Trend

Trend is the number in a certain period of time running direction and strength. Trend once confirmed， have inertia and continuity. Upward trend once formed， after a while the middle has the rise and fall， but the rebound in time and space within the channel， the trend is still up. So， in before rising trend to buy， it is the most safe. On the other hand， once the downward trend， after the formation of the way， although there is a rise and fall， but the overall trend is down， it is very dangerous.

2.2.2 K line

The K line with the stock of K line here has the very big difference， pay attention to not confuse. The length of the K line reaction probability， high and low reaction trend. And in K line figures， the red K line represents open， green K line on behalf of omission.

2.2.3 Bollinger Bands

The "bell" analysis method is unique of Boll. The so-called "bell" refers to the K line in the operation of the respectively under Boll on the rail and rail rail line from opposite directions and huge expansion or close to form a similar "horn" special shape （Tan， 2010）. "Bell" is divided into open， closed and close mouth style. Open mouth horn often appear at the beginning of the number of soaring prices in the short term.

2.2.4 MACD

In the use of the MACD， mainly pay attention to three points： the first is to ensure that the overall trend of the MACD is up， the second is to ensure that yellow line wear green line became the fork， the best guarantee the MACD is positive.

2.2.5 ADX

ADX index is to reflect the extent of change trend， not reverse itself. Trend of hot and cold to confirm the + DI and - DI through signal， namely the white line up across the red， or green line across the red lines， it is a clear upward trend.

2.3 The concrete prediction method

2.3.1 The predictor standard

Firstly， the K line going into a general upward trend， and the boll formed a open mouth horn， at the same time， there are a descending relationship with omission. Secondly， MACD yellow line wear green line form the golden cross， or above the green line， when the MACD form after the golden cross， pay attention to the white rose， the trend is a good opportunity at this time. Lastly， when the ADX green line rising， white line up for the red， red fork down to find white line forming gold， it is a good chance. And we will buy the number follow these methods.

2.3.2 Bet method

The buying method is to buy a number at the last three position， if the prize number is which you have bought， you get the reward. The Single bet cost $5.42， and the prize is $19.4， a single bet winning net profit of 13.98 yuan， the profit margin of 257.9%.

2.3.3 The mathematical model of actual combat data inspection and return on investment

According to the bet method， theory of the winning probability is 27.1%， the statistics on December 8 to December 11 three days of actual combat， a total of 130 times data， winning 63 times on this method， a practical winning probability of 48.5%.Thus， this method can improve the chance to get the prize.

The Single bet cost $5.42， and the prize is $19.4， a single bet winning net profit of 13.98 yuan， the profit margin of 257.9%. Thus， the third phase of the cost is 16.26 yuan， namely every three phase can be profitable in the case of 3.14 yuan， the theory of the winning probability is 27.1% * 3 = 81.3%.In the long term， theoretically the player must have been lost. Practice， however， the winning probability is 48.5% * 3 = 145.5%， in this way， can achieve long-term profitability ， of course， the premise is to keep the winning probability.

3. Analysis

3.1 Conclusions

It is can be sure that the lottery number is predictable， but what we should pay attention to is the forecast is not absolute， here is only relative to increase the winning probability， and it is the selection of big probability event according to the trend. There is no plan which can be sure to win， never want beyond the theory of probability， what we can do is through analysis to raise the probability of winning. Finally， advise punters adjust well the state of mind， don't put the lottery as a career， think of it as a entertainment activity， then， you will harvest happiness.

3.2 Recommendations

This report mainly illustrates the lottery prediction basis and simple forecasting method. The method is not only， there are must more other effective methods are waiting to be found. What is more， how to refine the lottery analysis theory， and put the theory quantitative is a very good research direction. And researching how to overcome the impact of psychological factors on the speculation activities will be the next phase of the research direction， it is very necessary.

【References】

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【作者簡介】

孟喆（1993—），男，大连人，东北财经大学会计专业硕士研究生，主要研究方向：金融、管理。