果桑产业的效益分析及风险规避

周应彪，周钇宏

(1.云南省昭通市农业科学院，云南 昭通 657000；2.中国人民大学 新闻学院，北京100872)

果桑产业的效益分析及风险规避

周应彪1，周钇宏2

(1.云南省昭通市农业科学院，云南 昭通 657000；2.中国人民大学 新闻学院，北京100872)

通过实地调研和相关文献查阅，阐述了果桑产业的经济效益、生态效益、社会效益，从桑果耐贮性差、桑果采摘用工量大、桑果产业对加工业的依赖性极大、果桑极易暴发菌核病等方面分析了果桑产业的特定风险，在此基础上提出科学规划、切实做好桑果菌核病预防、发展果叶兼用桑果品种、果桑种植与桑果加工同步发展、果桑产业与休闲观光旅游相结合、提高消费者的认知度、加强桑果食品管理和产品创新等对策建议。

果桑；产业；效益；分析；风险；规避

果桑产业是以果桑种植为基础的产业。果桑是从桑树植物中选育出的以收获桑果为主、收获桑叶为辅的桑树品种。桑果(桑椹)营养丰富，是早春的美味水果。传统中医和现代医学研究证实：桑果不但含有多种营养成分，还含有有机酸、白藜芦醇、花青素、黄酮类化合物等功能性成分，具有增强免疫、抗衰老、抑制癌细胞生长等药理功能。桑果自古就享有民间圣果、中华果王的美称，早在1993年就被卫生部列入“既是药品又是食品”的名单，被当今医学界称赞为“21世纪的最佳保健果品”[1]，号称“天然富硒水果皇后”。除主产品桑果外，果桑叶可用于养蚕，果桑枝可用于种植食用菌、天麻和加工制作木地板等，果桑树还能保持水土、绿化环境。现有文献查阅结果表明，早在20世纪90年代初，就有学者对果桑的开发利用进行了可行性研究[2]。进入21世纪，随着人民生活水平的不断提高和旅游业的快速发展，果桑以其独特的药用、保健、旅游、养蚕及水土保持等功能，越来越受到人们的关注，学者们对果桑的价值、栽培技术及产品加工等进行了大量的研究[3]，为果桑产业的进一步研发奠定了坚实基础。但是，针对桑果产品的特殊性给果桑产业带来的风险及对策研究不多，鲜有学者对此问题进行专题研究，而如何规避风险，提高效益，又是果桑产业健康发展的关键所在，这是一个非常值得深入研究的问题。

1 果桑产业的效益分析

1.1 经济效益

1.1.1 桑果和养蚕收益

桑果和养蚕收益与各地的地理位置、气候环境、土肥水条件、经济和旅游业发展状况及果桑品种关系较大。据考察，四川威远县种植的果桑盛产期年产桑果可达30 t/hm2以上，按2014年该县加工企业的最低收购价4.4元/kg计算，则桑果可收入13.2万元/hm2；果桑叶每年还可养蚕15张/hm2，产鲜蚕茧600 kg/hm2，按收购价40元/kg，收入2.4万元/hm2；两项合计可收入15.6万元/hm2，减去生产成本3.9万元/hm2，纯收入可达11.7万元/hm2。

1.1.2 桑果加工收益

桑果加工工艺简单，无需脱皮去核，出汁率高达50%以上。桑果加工产品在国际国内市场需求大，价格高，浓缩桑果汁6 000～8 000美元/t，比浓缩酸苹果汁高出十几倍；桑果原汁或果酱，出口价为800～1 200美元/t。桑果汁通过深加工，制成桑果酒、桑果晶、桑果色素等，价格更高[4]。2015年3月云南省镇雄县人民政府针对桑果红酒生产，组织相关部门到四川国友果业有限公司考察：果桑园产桑果22.5～30.0 t/hm2，可出桑果原汁11.25～15.00 t/hm2，酿制桑果红酒11.25～15.00 t/hm2，产值达到180～240万元/hm2。桑果酒营养丰富、颜色鲜艳、醇香可口[5]，所含蛋白质是葡萄酒的8.44倍，微量元素硒是葡萄酒的12.4倍，花青素是葡萄酒的5倍，赖氨酸是葡萄酒的9.23倍[1]，白藜芦醇为葡萄酒的2倍，可与葡萄酒相媲美[5]，为果酒中的极品。榨汁后的桑果渣还可提取天然色素、制作牲畜饲料，桑果渣提取的天然色素出口欧美，售价高达3万美元/t[6]。果桑园可产干桑枝约11.25～15.00 t/hm2，可生产食用菌菌袋0.9～12.0万个/hm2，价值达到2.7～3.6万元/hm2以上，减去桑枝及加工成本0.9～1.2万元/hm2，可增加纯收入1.8～2.4万元/hm2。

1.2 生态效益

果桑树属深根性木本植物，具有抗旱性、抗寒性强，耐贫瘠的特点；对自然环境适应性强，生命力极其旺盛，在气温-30℃～40℃、降水300 mm以上的地方都能生长；桑树虽属阔叶树，但其蒸腾系数较小(274)[7]。桑树根系极为发达，分布近地面的水平根几乎与地面平行，垂直向下的垂直根能深入土中3～4 m，垂直根与水平根构成立体交叉的吸水固土网络，能有效地固持土壤，遏制风沙，截持降雨，具有良好的水土保持效果[8]。果桑园每年可比无林地多涵水300 m3/hm2，减少泥沙流失45 t/hm2[9]。桑树根深叶茂，除能保持水土，净化水源外，还能绿化环境，净化空气，桑园每年可吸收CO2约49.29 t/hm2，释放O2约为35.85 t/hm2[7]。果桑繁殖容易，已成为绿化荒山，防风固沙的优良树种之一。

1.3 社会效益

果桑产业是一项典型的劳动力密集型产业，栽桑、产果、养蚕及茧、丝、绸、桑果加工等每个生产环节，都需要大量劳动力。在现代科学技术支撑下，以生产蚕丝及丝绸制品为目的的传统蚕桑产业已拓宽至药食、饲料、新材料及文化生态等新领域，形成了全方位、高效益开发的新蚕桑产业，产业链进一步拉长，整体效益进一步提高、就业岗位进一步增加。发展果桑产业可为社会提供更多就业岗位，促进社会和谐稳定。

2 果桑产业的风险分析

2.1 桑果耐贮性差

桑果含水量极高，鲜果含水率80%～85%，加上果皮极薄，不耐贮运和保鲜[10]，特别容易变质，一般在采摘以后，常温下只能存放一天。如果盲目发展，极易导致卖果难，从而给农民和政府带来巨大损失。

2.2 桑果采摘用工量大

桑果投产早，丰产快，挂果期短，上市集中(单个品种15～30 d)，传统的人工采摘方式，一般人均日采桑果也就55 kg左右，采摘压力极大。如果没有足够的劳动力资源作支撑，不宜大面积发展。

2.3 桑果产业对加工业的依赖性极大

果桑极不耐储运，必须就地加工，对加工业的依赖性极大，如果没有成熟的加工龙头企业作支撑，风险大，很难做大做强。

2.4 果桑极易暴发菌核病

果桑菌核病是桑果生产的毁灭性病害，来势猛、发病快，发生严重时可导致桑果绝收，已成为果桑产业的最大威胁，在桑果的整个生产中必须引起高度重视。

3 规避果桑产业风险的对策建议

3.1 科学规划

开发果桑产业，必须根据开发用途、市场基础，结合当地的气候特点、交通运输、劳动力资源及旅游资源等，进行综合分析，科学论证，合理规划，避免盲目发展。同一地区栽植的果桑，品种不能单一，早、中、晚熟，鲜食型品种和加工型品种要科学搭配，最大限度延长采果时期。

3.2 切实做好桑果菌核病预防

桑果菌核病的预防直接关系到果桑产业的健康发展，对果桑菌核病要建立监测预报机制，做到早发现、早防治。现代研究表明：桑果菌核病的病原虽然是桑果菌核病发生的必要因素，而气候环境、果桑品种抗性及栽培技术也是影响桑果菌核病发生的因素之一[11]。因此，防治上倡导绿色防控，选栽抗菌核病的果桑品种、合理密植、科学修剪、及时深翻土壤等农业防治，并采取及时清除病果、覆盖地膜，隔年轮伐等物理防治措施，在重点抓好农业和物理防治的基础上，再辅以化学防治[12]。

3.2.1 将果桑园规划在空气湿度小的区域

桑果菌核病的发生与花期的气候环境密切相关。花期温暖多雨，土壤潮湿，有利于该病的发生[11]。因此，果桑园应尽量规划在桑树开花期间空气干燥，通风良好的区域种植。不宜选择低洼、排水不畅的地块。

3.2.2 科学栽培

桑果园种植的密度过大，主干太低，果园荫蔽，通风透光差[11]，树势弱、树龄大、偏施N肥等均易导致桑果菌核病的暴发。在栽培规划时，一定要根据不同果桑品种，合理密植，桑园一般栽植4 500 ～7 500株/hm2。合理整形修剪，改善通风透光条件，适时施入足量的有机肥和复合肥，有利于恢复树势，提高桑树抗病能力。

3.2.3 选择抗性桑品种

不同果桑品种对桑果菌核病的抗性差异较大，选育和选栽抗病优质果桑品种是预防桑果菌核病的最有效途径。中国果桑资源丰富，各地应结合本地气候环境，选育和筛选既抗病又高产优质的品种进行种植[11]。

3.2.4 物理和化学防治相结合

冬季果桑落叶后，清除落叶、枯枝及杂草，集中烧毁。桑果成熟期间，应及时清除病果，集中到园外深埋，防止病原蔓延。桑树萌发或最迟开花前用地膜覆盖地面，隔离病原。从果桑初花期至花期结束，采用50%多菌灵600～800倍液或70%甲基托布津800～1 000倍液+50%速克灵1 500倍液进行喷花，7～10 d喷一次[12]，连喷3～4次，在采桑果15 d前停止喷药。

3.3 发展果叶兼用桑果品种

传统蚕丝产业主要以茧、丝、绸等产品出口经营为主，受国际政治和社会经济环境因素的影响很大，价格波动频繁。果桑业的开发，为蚕丝产业的发展拓宽了领域。发展果叶兼用桑品种，除了满足蚕农的养蚕需求外，还可采摘桑果出售，既加强蚕桑综合利用，又促进蚕农增收，可实现桑果产业与茧丝绸产业相互兼顾、共同发展。通过栽培技术调控，当桑果产品行情不好时，桑农可以养蚕为主，生产桑果为辅。当茧丝绸行情差时，桑农可以生产桑果为主，养蚕为辅，通过桑果的收益和养蚕收益的相互补充，采果和养蚕用工时间的相互错开，既提高了收益，又缓解了农村劳动力不足的情况，避免了单纯养蚕或单纯产果带来的市场风险。

3.4 果桑种植与桑果加工同步发展

果桑种植后，投产快，产量高，但鲜果易变质，不耐储存和运输。扶持和引进龙头加工企业必须与果桑种植同步进行，并打造具有相当规模和实力的果桑产业集群，形成配套完善的果桑产品收储、加工、营销体系[13]，以“农企共赢”为目标进行集中化、规模化发展，结成风险共担、利益共享的经济共同体，提高果桑产业市场的应变能力和抗风险能力。

3.5 果桑产业与休闲观光旅游相结合

旅游已经成为现代人的消费热点，果桑树枝叶茂盛、硕果累累，集桑海景观观赏与桑果采摘品尝为一身，是发展现代观光农业不可多得的旅游资源。各地桑果的成熟季节，正是春暖花开、适宜踏青的好季节，此时的果桑园是满足人们休闲的好去处，它能让游客回归自然、亲近自然，在自然中享受快乐、寻求自我，感受采摘桑果的乐趣，品尝生态桑果美味。在旅游公路沿线及城郊，选择优良果桑品种，成片种植一定面积集桑海景观观赏与果桑采摘品尝相结合的果桑园，供游人采摘桑果尝鲜和带回家中自制桑果酒及其他桑果饮品，其乐无穷[14]。通过游客的自已采摘，一方面可缓解摘果劳动力的不足，减少劳动支出，另一方面果园收取入园费、售果，经济效益也十分可观。

3.6 果桑产业与水土保持相结合

“东桑西移”工程的实施，蚕桑产业已快速向中西部贫困山区转移。果桑林水土保持功能强大，既是生态林又是经济林，具有较好的经济效益和生态效益，结合国家新一轮“退耕还林工程”和“扶贫功坚新战略”的实施，发展果桑产业，即使桑果产品和茧丝绸产品同时出现了市场波动，甚至跌入谷底，仅凭果桑良好的生态效益，也还有其生存的空间和价值，一旦行情好转，良好的经济效益又能及时得到充分发挥，可避免过去蚕桑产业中存在的行情好时“赶”，差时“砍”的现象发生。

3.7 提高消费者的认知度

尽管对桑果的研究和报道并不少，但是由于市面上销售的桑果产品较少，消费者对桑果产品的认知度并不高，对其功效更是知之甚少，导致桑果产品的市场消费不足。为此，果桑产业开发要在市场策划、广告宣传上狠下功夫，通过媒体、网络等大力宣传桑果产品，提高知名度。

3.8 加强桑果食品管理和产品创新

未来的果桑产业，一方面应加强对桑果生产工艺的进一步研究，加强桑果食品安全管理，尽快完善产品生产工艺流程的地方标准。另一方面还应加强桑果在保健、治疗和药理方面的深入研究，研发新的医药保健品，延伸产业链，提高果桑产业的综合效益[15]。

4 结论

新鲜桑果产品的特殊性，虽然客观上决定了果桑产业开发具有一定的风险性，但只要坚持科学规划，风险是可以规避的。果桑产业作为一个新兴产业，它丰富了蚕桑业的内涵，无论是经济效益、生态效益，还是社会效益均十分显著，符合国家发展生态农业和循环经济的总体要求，前景十分广阔。

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[14]周应彪，周钇宏．“世界第二大水电站”建设背景下的蚕桑产业研究：以云南省巧家县为例[J]．丝绸，2016，53(5)：76-81．

[15]吴滨滨，甄丹丹，甄汉深，等．桑葚研究进展[J]．亚太传统医药，2015，11(6)：41-43．

DOI：10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.01.001

Original Articlein韩俊英，岳上植．南方集体林区依法行政与经济转型耦合发展机理研究．林业经济问题，2017，37(1)：1-5，10．

DOI：10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.01.002

Abstract

Background With the reform and opening up，China has entered an unprecedented social transformation stage where the social structure changed from “integration”to“differentiation”．Since the middle of 1990s，the pace of social differentiation in China has been greatly accelerated．Key state-owned forest region is the biggest forest region in China，it rich in natural resources and full of various heterogeneity．Ecological status of key state-owned forest region is very important．In the context of social differentiation and a series of policy introduced，differentiation tendency of key state-owned forest region appeared new situation．Many studies focused on the differentiation of rural households，but there are few studies noticed the differentiation of worker households in forest regions．Analyzing the professional differentiation and determinants of worker households in key state-owned forest region was important to ease various contradictions and conflicts in forest region．

Methods Based on the field survey data of 718 worker households living in key state-owned forest region，this paper studies the professional differentiation status of worker households，and analyzes the factors influencing types of professional differentiation of worker households by using multinomial Logistic regression model．

Results In this paper，the concept of professional differentiation of worker households in key state-owned forest region was presented．Professional differentiation of worker households in key state-owned forest region was that the original highly homogeneous worker households in key state-owned forest region showed heterogeneity，their family members’ professional categories were more abundant，and the nature of their work was becoming more diverse．Worker households could be divided into 3 types(3 types includes worker households in pure state-owned units，diversified households and worker households in non-state-owned units)base on the work nature of worker households’ labors．Meanwhile，the number of worker households in pure state-owned units was the largest，followed by diversified households，and the number of worker households in non-state-owned units was the least．Thus，the state-owned units are the main employment field of worker households in key state-owned forest region，and the non-state-owned units have also become an important employment field．In addition，the determinants of worker households’ professional differentiation types in key state-owned forest region were analyzed based on the multinomial logistic regression model．The results imply that the number of family labor，the average years of schooling of labor force，social relations of the family，and the forest region where the family live have the significant impact on types of professional differentiation of worker households in key state-owned forest region．

Conclusions and Discussion Some policy implications were derived in this paper．Firstly，base on the different types of worker households，governments should guide professional differentiation of worker households actively through implementing the differential policy to optimize the professional differentiation pattern．Secondly，governments should pay attention to education and training，strengthen investment in human capital．Because raising the educational level and strengthening professional skills are helpful for worker households to improve their employability and job seeking ability．Thirdly，by resorting to family social network，worker households’ labors should capture opportunities and resources to improve their own employment status．Fourthly，if governments want to reduce financial burden of worker households in forest region，they should perfect the pension security system and strengthen the care for the minors．To some extent，labors of worker households might choose their jobs more comfortably without the worry of the olds and kids．

Key words：key state-owned forest region；worker households；professional differentiation；determinants

Original Articlein朱洪革，胡士磊．重点国有林区职工家庭职业分化及其影响因素．林业经济问题，2017，37(1)：6-10．

DOI：10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.01.003

Abstract

Background State-owned forest plays a vital role in forest resources assets in China．The environment and function of state-owned forest had been changed with the deepening of reform and releasing a series of major policies．Before the mechanism and institutions of reimbursable usage system setting up for state-owned forest resources，there are such problems as incomplete establishment of law system，the lagging of management measures，seriously losing of state-owned forest resources，the value of forest resources assessment lack of scientific and so on in practice．So it is necessary to establish a scientific and reasonable state-owned forest resources assets reimbursable usage system，so as to deepen the reform of state-owned forest and implement major decision-making arrangements．

Methods This paper analyzed the reasons，the extent of application and the mode of application for reimbursable usage system on state-owned forest resources generalizing and analyzing relevant study achievements．

Results There are 3 reasons explaining for the issues occurred in reimbursable usage system on state-owned forest resources：Firstly，the forest property dispute affected the production，management and function of state-owned forest did not work better；Secondly，seriously losing of state-owned forest resources caused by lacking of circulation system and standardization；Thirdly，unreasonable benefits distribution of reimbursable usage system caused the losing of state-owned forest resources，because unreasonable benefits distribution would lead to the forest and workers failing to enjoy the country’s many policy，so they have to transfer the state-owned forest resources to make up for forest production．In order to make sure the extent and the mode of application in reimbursable usage system on state-owned forest resources，through the analyzing results we know that：for goods timber forest，we could use the land use right，product use rights，landscape and forestry carbon sequestration rights in timber forest，economic forest，firewood forest；for public welfare forest，we could use the forest landscape use right in special use forests and protection forest(expect national defense forest，seed stand，etc.)；for non-wood and woody forest products，we could use the gathering rights，economic forest species breeding rights and forestry carbon sequestration rights．State-owned forest areas，internal staff，corporate and banking body are the subject in reimbursable usage system on state-owned forest resources．The mode of application included transfer of compensation authorization management，investment shares，transfer，contract，etc.

Conclusions and Discussion This paper put forward 3 suggestion：Firstly，governments should focus on resolving forest rights disputes to ensure the normal production and management．On the one hand，making a comprehensive inspection，verification and correction for state-owned forest rights through registration and certification；on the other hand，strengthening the mediation masses between state-owned forest and the surrounding．Secondly，governments should prevent the loss of state assets in various ways，Such as introducing of relevant solutions and suggestions at the national level to solve the transfer and loss of forest resources，increasing rectification efforts of the forest resources and identify all kinds of circulation，verifying the transfer issue of state forest．Thirdly，governments should build and perfect institutional to support reimbursable usage system on state-owned forest resources．Such as improving the forest law，developing forest resources assets reimbursable usage management approach，establishing hierarchical approval management of state-owned forest resources assets，strengthening the use of management，establishing scientific authority accurate asset evaluation system and state-owned forest farmland circulation supervision．

Key words：state-owned forest resources；compensation for the use；system；state-owned forest farms

Original Articlein周海川．国有森林资源资产有偿使用制度探悉．林业经济问题，2017，37(1)：11-17．

DOI：10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.01.004

Abstract

Background With the reform of collective forest tenure implementing in Guangxi，the change of management model in forest resources was caused by the transforms in forest resources production model and supply model．The management model of fast-growing and high-yielding timber forest have an important influence on forest management efficiency and increasing farmers’ income．So it is very significant to study the change on the management model of fast-growing and high-yielding timber forest under the background of collective forest tenure reform．

Methods Based on the method of social statistics，analyzing the data of questionnaires which collected from forestry workers at the 14 prefecture level cities in Guangxi，this research discussed the following 4 questions： Firstly，what is the changing trend of the management model of fast-growing and high-yielding forest after collective forest tenure reform in Guangxi? Secondly，what are factors affecting and restricting the development of fast-growing and high-yielding forest in Guangxi? Thirdly，what is the impact of collective forest tenure reform on the fast-growing and high-yield forest in Guangxi? Fourthly，what is main timber supply mode and management model after collective forest tenure reform in Guangxi?

Results With the reform of collective forest tenure implementing in Guangxi，the major factors of the rapid development on fast-growing and high-yielding forest are the motivated by economic benefit，the suitable environmental conditions for fast-growing and high-yielding forest，the demand for forest industry developing and the increasing forestation activity of farmers．The main factors hindering the development on fast-growing and high-yielding forest are short of woodland and relevant government policies to support，meanwhile，the number of forestry cooperative organizations being small．Because the collective management do not adapt to the forestry productivity in 2016，so it will gradually disappear．However，the cooperative organization management model and the company management model will be the trend of development of the fast-growing and high-yielding forest in Guangxi．Through the analysis about timber supply mode of the fast-growing and high-yielding forest in Guangxi，this research implies that the supply from company and cooperation organizations would help timber trading system to achieve a win-win situation between buyers and sellers．As a result，the cooperative organization management model and the company management model will be the trend of development of the fast-growing and high-yielding forest in Guangxi．The investment and management scale must reach to be a certain extent in order to produce relatively good economic benefits in Guangxi．In addition，as the results from statistical analysis，the best investment strategy of the fast-growing and high-yielding forest in Guangxi is from 13.5 thousand yuan per hectare to 15.0 thousand yuan per hectare，and the suitable operation area for operators is from 6.67 hm2to 13.33 hm2．

Conclusions and Discussion Based on the result of study，3 suggestions are proposed： Primary，developing of fast-growing and high-yielding forest through cooperative management and corporate management，the management model toward the intensive and industry planting system．Secondly，we should improve the follow-up measures of development on the fast-growing and high-yielding forest in order to ensure that forestry investment to achieve a certain scale in Guangxi．Finally，the government would establish the good soil environment of the cooperative organization management model and the company management model，then farmers will voluntarily combine together to form a cooperation organization in order to form a scale to overcome the problem of funds．

Key words：collective forest tenure reform；Guangxi；fast-growing and high-yielding forest；management model；tendency

Original Articlein周泽建．集体林权制度改革对速生丰产林经营模式的影响：以广西为例．林业经济问题，2017，37(1)：18-24．

DOI：10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.01.005

Abstract

Background Since the reform and opening up for more than 30 years，the process of urbanization in China has been deepening，and the urban population has been increasing rapidly．However，the process of urbanization in China is different from that of the West，where urban infrastructures and public services have not improved significantly with a large influx of people，which has led to serious urban ecological and environmental problem and limited the future sustainable development of city．In this case，the importance of the development of urban forestry has become increasingly prominent．Urban forestry not only played very important role in improving and managing the urban environment and ecosystem，but also closely related to citizens in improving their livelihood levels with many kinds of benefits．It is necessary to make a comprehensive analysis on issues related to urban forestry．

Methods This paper designed questionnaires on public preferences，concluding four aspects as space-time，elements，layouts and payments．A total of 3 000 citizens were investigated through field survey in central urban areas in Beijing．Contingent Valuation Method and urban landscape analysis method are used in analyzing citizens’ preferences on urban forestry，as well as the corresponding influencing factors．

Results From the viewpoint of space-time：Public preference are mainly depended on citizens’ actual using frequency，while spatial distance only did little help to their preferences．The results also show that the higher reachability，the lower the using frequency，and the social service function of urban forestry in Beijing plays the minimum roll．From the viewpoint of elements：Citizens consider exercise，rest，entertainment and dog walking as the most important factors for urban forestry．As far as the three forms of urban forestry are concerned，parks played a greater role in citizens’ life than public green spaces．Ancient and famous trees always had less impact for citizens，as various non-using values remain to be their most important functions．Meanwhile，the worst aspects are damage cause by dogs and lawn trampling and other forms of violations of regulation．From the viewpoint of layout preference：Citizens in Beijing were prefer the urban forestry with more nature elements and more convenience and more comfortable by comprehensive management．From the viewpoint of willingness to pay：Citizens’ average willingness to pay for urban forestry is 44.11 Yuan per person，while the level of income，education and urban forestry costs as well as the contact frequency shall have a significant positive impact on their payment willingness．

Conclusions and Discussion According to the research result，this paper believes that：In the next stage，urban forestry construction and citizens’ demand shall be fully considered to enhance the applicability of urban forestry and promote the using frequency of citizens．It is also crucial to pay attention to the improvement of the social service functions and urban ecological environment，avoid the unreasonable phenomenon like as fund waste and water source pollution，as well as increasing citizens’ willingness and initiative to pay for urban forestry by propaganda work．The results of this paper also implied that it is important to protect the ancient and famous tree because it won the approval of citizens，which would increase the citizens’ using frequency and willingness to pay for urban forestry．In addition，perfecting the social security system and lay a solid foundation for sustainable development in each stage of urban forestry construction is also of great importance．

Key words：urban forestry；citizen preference；contingent valuation method；willingness to pay

Original Articlein赵正，马奔，温亚利．基于市民偏好的城市林业选择研究．林业经济问题，2017，37(1)：25-30，36．

DOI：10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.01.006

Abstract

Background At present，Grain-to-Green project is the biggest ecological project in China，it plays an important role in improving ecological environment．In academia field，many scholars believed in an opinion that returning stage had a strong intensive and planting stage had a weak intensive．

Methods Base on the present literatures and the theories of heterogeneity，this paper analyzed four aspects as the real obstacles of mechanism of returning farmland to forest policy，the problems of insufficient incentive，the incentive misalignment caused by the neglect of heterogeneous farmers and their different preferences from the perspective of heterogeneous farmers．

Results Heterogeneous farmers were defined as the difference in agricultural production efficiency caused by concurrent industrialization，which actually includes economic effect and ecological effect．In such a context，farm households’ decision making was determined by the tradeoffs among subsidy，agriculture income and non-farm income．Farmers would prefer to return farmland when government subsidy was higher than agricultural income，conversely，they would prefer engaging in agricultural activities．However，if the non-farm income was far above government subsidy and agricultural income，farmers would chose returning farmland again．The agricultural income as the opportunity cost was used to evaluate the incentive effectiveness．The result shows that the relationship between heterogeneous farmers measured by concurrent level and the willingness to participate in Grain-to-Green project is a hump．Specifically，both of the pure farmers and farmers who had abandoned farming have the incentives to return farmland，the difference is that for the former they have moral hazard problem of forest rehabilitation，and the latter induced policy burden; the choices of part-time farmers were determined by the net values of different land usage and the trade-off between farm income and non-farm income．Therefore，the Grain-to-Green policy may encounter failure even during the returning stage．Farmers with high production efficiency could afford the expensive switching cost，so the economic forest would be their best choice after the returning stage．Otherwise，ecological forest came to be the second best choice for someone who had lower efficiency．And the ecological performance achieved by the Grain-to-Green policy was due to the rational behaviors of heterogeneous farmers．In the stage of returning，if subsidy policy palled on farmers who was in intervening level of concurrent business that Grain-to-Green project would play a finite role in improving ecological environment．And in the stage of planting，the farmers who had high production efficiency would choose economic forest first，exhibiting highly motivated in forest administration and protection．However，the farmers with higher efficiency will increase the investment in pesticides and chemical fertilizer for the sake of economic interest．So the overall effect of ecological improvement is vague．

Conclusions and Discussion Finally，this paper proposed the adjustment and optimization of the ecological compensation policies in China，including the increase of subsidies or the trial of diversified subsidy policy to encourage and protect farmers participation incentives in the short run；broadening the non-farm employment channels and developing forestry carbon sink market to ensure the sustainability of Sloping-Land Conversion Program in the medium and long term．

Key words：heterogeneous farmers；ecological compensation of Grain-to-Green project；incentive weakness； conversion cost

Original Articlein张兴，张炜，赵敏娟．退耕还林生态补偿机制的激励有效性：基于异质性农户视角．林业经济问题，2017，37(1)：31-36．

DOI：10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.01.007

Abstract

Background At present，some researches claimed that the urgency of protective development for forest parks，and some researchers had realized the importance of community participation in protective development．However，most of the existed researches ignored the link between peasants’ protect attitude and forest park management．As an important stakeholder in the development of suburban forest parks，the surrounding community peasants’ behavior would directly impact on the management of forest parks，their support and friendly and cooperative community relations play an important role in the sustainable development of forest parks．

Methods The data were based on 529 peasant households surrounding 9 suburban forest parks in Fujian province．Then we used the Probit regression to analyze the relationship between peasants’ perceived variables and protection attitudes．

Results Limited forestry by-product，limited firewood collection，and limited wood harvesting are 3 most significant variables in most of peasant loss perception variables，because there is no significant correlation between the firewood collection and peasant protection attitudes．Variables-wildlife damage，limited forestry by-product and limited wood harvesting have a significant negative impact on peasant protection attitudes，because they obviously reduced level of income．The most obvious perceived benefits of tourism development are transportation access improvement，followed employment opportunities increasing，non-agricultural income increasing and leisure amusement places increasing．And the variables which have significant positive effects on peasant protection attitude are employment opportunities increasing，transportation access improvement，leisure amusement places increasing and development of tourism projects．In order to promote the effective protection of the suburban forest parks and the coordinated development with the community，on the one hand，the forest park management should actively take the livelihood of the surrounding peasants into management scope．Surrounding peasants who are lost their woodland，land and limited their own economic income when establishing the forest park should be take corresponding compensation measures．The usual practice is to give compensation or offer a certain job opportunities to the surrounding peasants with a greater degree of damage．The violation of wildlife should also be included in the forest park protection management agenda．On the other hand，the forest park could cooperate with the surrounding peasants in a symbiotic way to carry out forest park tourism development management．In reality，many peasants will rely on forest parks to carry out tourism activities，and the contents of these activities have complementary relations with the main business of the forest park，which can make up for the dysfunction of the forest park reception．Therefore，the forest park management side should communicate actively with the surrounding peasants who had the cooperative willingness and the cooperation ability，and they carry out tourism activities together rely on the establishment of forest parks，and then form the symbiotic interaction development relationship．

Conclusions and Discussion Community peasants are important stakeholders in the development of suburban forest parks．According to the perception of economy level and life level，peasants’ protection attitude produces corresponding changes．Especially，the perception of economy level has a significant impact on the protection attitude of peasant．Therefore，in order to promote the effective protection of the suburban forest parks and coordinate community development，park manager should consider the livelihood of the surrounding peasant households and collaborate with them，to symbiotic complementarily forest park tourism development and management．

Key words：suburban forest park；peasants；tourism loss；tourism income；protection attitudes

Original Articlein赖启福，黄秀娟，朱佳佳，等．城郊森林公园农户旅游收益、损失与保护态度的研究：以福建省为例．林业经济问题，2017，37(1)：37-43，62．

DOI：10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.01.008

Abstract

Background Forest tourism attracts visitors increasingly with superior ecological environment，natural resources and unique health care function．Based on analysis of existing research literature，found the research of forest health resource itself and the quantitative evaluation of its development potential is lack．There is no systemic development potential evaluation index system research of forest health tourism．

Methods Establishing the index system of forest health tourism development potential based on principles as comprehensive，representative，gradation，operational，meanwhile，priority will be given to quantitative evaluation，and supplemented by qualitative evaluation indexes．Then we selected five national forest park in Anhui province (namely Huangshan mountain national forest park，Jiuhua mountain national forest park，Tianzhu mountain national forest park，Langya mountain national forest park，and Huangzangyu national forest park) for evaluating the forest health tourism development potential base on multilevel grey evaluation method．

Results As the weights on the index system of forest health tourism development potential，the weight of health environment is the highest in the 4 composite layers of comprehensive evaluation，next is the weight of health resources，the weight of scenic spot conditions and the weight of social support are minimum．It shows that forest wellness tourism very much dependent on health environment; ecological environment，culture of health preservation and health products are the basic guarantee and core condition for forest health tourism developing; the attraction of tourism resources is important factors；the scenic area conditions and local social support is the foundation conditions of forest health tourism．In element evaluation layer，the resources endowment has the highest weight in the two evaluation subsystem of health resources，resource characteristic is less．In the health environment 3 evaluation subsystem，the highest weights is ecological environment，the less weight is culture of health preserving and health products is the smallest．According to the results of evaluating the forest health tourism development potential，the forest health tourism development potential is divided into 3 levels：level 1 of tourism development potential for the best development area，the score range 3 or higher；level 2 for second best development area，the range of 2-3 points; Level 3 for the general development area，scoring domain 3．Data show that the Tianzhu mountain national forest park get the highest composite scores，Jiuhua mountain national forest park and Huangshan mountain national forest park get the lower scores，which all belong to the best development area．Langya mountain national forest park and the Huangzangyu national forest park belongs to the second best development area，which are in accordance with the objective conditions．So it implies that the index system of forest health tourism development potential is reasonable．

Conclusions and Discussion It should be pointed out that the forest health tourism development potential is a complex research，there are many influence factors to build the evaluation system of indexes．The article makes a preliminary discussion，but there are some limitations on the comprehensive of index system，how to formulate the evaluation system more comprehensively，objectively and reasonably，and how to incorporate the tourist's perception deserves further study．

Key words：forest tourism；health tourism；exploration potential；forest park

Original Articlein陆晓梅，张鑫，高淑春．森林养生旅游开发潜力评价研究．林业经济问题，2017，37(1)：44-49．

DOI：10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.01.009

Abstract

Background Bamboo forest ecotourism is an important part of the ecological tourism industry，but lacking of theoretical guidance on bamboo tourism management，cultural heritage，product innovation，resource protection and development and so on would greatly hinder the popularization and development of bamboo forest ecotourism．Xianning is a famous bamboo township，there are 12 genera and 150 species of bamboo plants，the production of bamboo accounted for more than 80% of Hubei province．In order to exploit and utilize bamboo forest ecotourism resources，it is necessary to collect all kinds of information of local bamboo resources as soon as possible．

Methods This thesis used ETM+ and ENVI 4.7 to pre-process Landsat ETM+ image of Xianning，and used the supervised classification method to extract the bamboo information，and evaluated the accuracy of the calculation results．To improve accuracy and efficiency，chose the 9，7，6 band combination which they are the smallest correlation to extract the bamboo forest information．

Results Overlayed the bamboo distribution layers in the remote sensing image，from the output result we know that bamboo forest in Xianning has 1 342 495 pixels，and evaluated a total area of 1 213 km2．Based on the results of classification statistics，the accuracy of classification and recognition is evaluated．The results show that the maximum likelihood method is used to extract the information of bamboo forest，the classification accuracy is up to 80.8% and the total Kappa coefficient is up to 78.75%．Through the above research，found that bamboo mainly concentrated in Osmanthus town，and the most area between Guantangyi and Chongyang，and the best season of bamboo forest tourism are spring and autumn．

Conclusions and Discussion This thesis put forward 5 proposals to promote the bamboo forest ecotourism of Xianning．Firstly，Make a scientific plan the bamboo forest ecotourism，which starting from the global perspective of tourism and combined with the beautiful countryside construction，ecological environment protection，and create the regional characteristic and brand according to the demand of tourists．Secondly，optimize the development environment of bamboo ecotourism industry，and promote the development and protection of ecotourism resources，that combined with the actual situation of the local tourism industry，and strengthen the ecotourism environmental protection laws and regulations．Thirdly，adhere to the development ideas of industrial integration，to form the South Hubei big bamboo ecological tourism core area．At the same time，let the local resources together to create the brand of Zhuhai Tourism，and to form many scenery spots in a scenic region．Fourthly，promote scientific and technological innovation strategy vigorously，to use new technology，exploit the bamboo forest ecological resources deeply．At the same time，use the digital information and network technology to enrich the concrete forms of ecological tourism products．And it should be promoted the ecological tourism consumption，service mode，marketing and management innovation，and gradually improve the scientific and technological content of bamboo forest ecotourism industry．The last one，it should be cultivating professional talents，from the industrial integration status and the needs of Xianning bamboo forest ecotourism development，mainly to cultivate talents in e-commerce，tourism information management，performance management，capital operation of tourism scenic，exhibition planning and organization．And training the people of primary-level worker，to achieve the transformation and upgrading of the tourism industry．

Key words：Bamboo forest ecotourism；tourism development；TM/ETM image；Xianning city

Original Articlein陈丽军，苏金豹，黄勇奇，等．基于遥感影像的竹林生态旅游开发研究：以竹乡咸宁为例．林业经济问题，2017，37(1)：50-55．

DOI：10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.01.010

Abstract

Background Conversion of cropland to forest project plays an important role in improving ecological environment which is known as a remarkable ecological engineering． Since 2000，SustainableLivelihoodFramework(SLA)， proposed byDepartmentforInternationalDevelopment(DFID)， is one of the most frequently used theories in formulating and implementing poverty relief policy．

Methods To establish sustainable livelihood framework specifically for Tibet， framework，consisting core points of vulnerability， livelihood capital， cropland to forest proposal， livelihood strategy and result，is proposed based on SLA． Vulnerability， livelihood capital， conversion of cropland to forest， survival strategy and livelihood result were the 5 components of this new framework． We selected 7 counties in Tibet as the study area according to the research objectives and regional economic and social development level． Then 180 households were randomly selected for questionnaires with 172 retrieved． Among the valid questionnaires， 38 came from farmers returning farmland and 134 came from non-returning． Subsequently， entropy method and logistic model were used to evaluate the livelihood capital and the impact of livelihood capital on livelihood strategy choice．

Results The main results are as follows：⑴According to the result of comprehensive index， the level of livelihood capital and the structure of capital were significantly different among farmers returning farmland and non-returning farmland． The livelihood capital standard for farmers returning farmland was higher than those not returned， especially in human， social and financial capitals． However， farmers who returned farmland had less natural capital comparing with those not returned． For peasant household， human capital had great influence on living standard， but social and financial capitals exert greater influence on improving overall living standard． ⑵ According to the result of logistic model significance test， both social capital and financial capital had significant influences on the choice of farmers returning farmland． Natural capital， material capital and social capital greatly influence the choice of farmers who don’t return．⑶According to sustainable livelihoods framework， survival strategy choice of peasant household often is determined by their livelihood capital． Peasant households who have more natural capital would select farming as the primary survival strategy while those who possess more social capital would prefer non-agriculture survival strategy．

Conclusions and Discussion To summarize， 3 suggestions are proposed referring to survival strategy classification of Scoones． Firstly， local government should develop specific breeding industry and plateau agriculture so as to make full use of pasture resource and animal husbandry advantages which in Tibet． Secondly， local governments should motivate and guide farmers who return farmland on developing self-operation and tourism through integrating all social capital， financial capital， and preferential policy． Lastly， local governments should endeavor to solve the problem of reemployment for surplus labor force．

Key words：Grain for Green Project；livelihood strategy；livelihood assets；farmers and nomads；entropy method；logistic model

Original Articlein陈相凝，武照亮，李心斐，等．退耕还林背景下生计资本对生计策略选择的影响分析：以西藏7县为例．林业经济问题，2017，37(1)：56-62．

DOI：10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.01.011

Abstract

Background China andCentralandEastEuropeanCountries(CEECs)are important countries in the development route of“Belt and Road Initiative”．CEECs are rich in forest resources．The forest economic and trade cooperation developed rapidly between China and CEECs．Especially after“16+1”Prime Minister meeting mechanism establishing in 2012，the bilateral trade value of China and CEECs increased by nearly 9 times from 2005 to 2014．Therefore，it is necessary to study the influencing factors of bilateral forest products trade between China and CEECs．

Methods Based on POOL EGLS method，processed the panel data of forest products trade value in China and 16 CEECs (the 16 CEECs were Poland，Czech，Romania，Latvia，Lithuania，Slovakia，Slovenia，Albania，Montenegro，Bosnia and Herzegovina，Macedonia，Hungary，Estonia，Croatia，Serbia and Bulgaria) from 2005 to 2014 which collected from United Nations International Trade Organization and the World Bank．Meanwhile，trade gravity model was used to study the bilateral forest products trade between China and CEECs．

Results This paper constructed three models，and both of them are approved by the significant test of 1% level．TheDWvalue of Model three is 1.95 and close to 2.00．It means that there is no self-correlation problem in model three．So the final regression model which improved on the basis of model three was used to analyze the factors that influence on the bilateral forest products trade between China and CEECs．The results show that the main factors influencing the bilateral trade growth of forest products are the GDP，the distance，the per capita forest resources and the establishment of“16+1”Prime Minister meeting mechanism．According to the results of the final regression model，analyzing the forest products trade potential between China and CEECs in 2014．Six countries as Poland，Slovakia，Hungary，Macedonia，Serbia and Montenegro have large potential in bilateral forest products trade with China，namely，the forest products trade between China and these trade partners are still in the development stage and they have a large space for development．So China should strengthen cooperation with these 6 countries actively to reduce trade barriers．The trade potential in two countries as Lithuania and Estonia is yet to be developed．This situation indicates that a certain scale of existing influence factors had reached，but there is still some space forward．The trade potential of other eight countries(Romania，Czech and Bulgaria，Latvia，Croatia，Albania，Slovenia，Bosnia and Herzegovina)belong to the trade potential reshape，it means that only the introduction of new factors can promote its further development．

Conclusions and Discussion In summary，facing less per capita forest resources in China，China should introduce a massive afforestation program to maintain the steady increase of forest resources and improve China forest products export trade．Under the background of Prime Minister meeting mechanism，in order to develop the trade in forest products between China and CEECs，China should establish forestry cooperation mechanism determinedly，at the same time China also should make more specific measures and policies for different countries．Reducing the transportation cost is one of the important driving forces to promote bilateral trade in forest products．So China should accelerate the construction of the railway transportation facilities between China and CEECs under proposing the development route of“Belt and Road Initiative”．

Key words：forest products；Gravity model；Central and Eastern Europe Countries(CEECs)；trade potential

Original Articlein万璐，高利，程宝栋．基于引力模型的林产品双边贸易潜力研究：以中国—中东欧沿线国家为例．林业经济问题，2017，37(1)：63-67，73．

DOI：10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.01.012

Abstract

Background Online purchase becomes a regular consumer purchase pattern，which turns out to be great challenges to furniture industry．E-commerce is online trade through internet．It is critical for furniture firms to meet the challenges by adopting e-commerce．

Methods Based on the studies which are selected from 1998 till June 2016，this paper attempted to understand e-commerce through two perspectives: one was from organizations，the significance of adopting e-commerce，the business pattern and restricting factors were summarized；and the other was from the consumers，consumers’ behavior and factors affecting furniture online purchase were also reviewed．

Results Furniture manufacturers and retailers are now competing in a global value chain and facing more complex market demand．Ignoring e-commerce would lead the firms to be marginalized by both domestic and international market．The new knowledge-based industry orientation also calls for new commercial patterns and technologies to be used，so that furniture companies can survive in the challenging market and gain competitive advantage．Increasing furniture firms have adopted e-commerce through displaying and selling product online to communicate with chain partners when they realized the value of collecting huge and updated consumer data from the new pattern．Some researchers argued that the furniture e-commerce pattern in China was still in the premature stage．E-commerce platforms were mainly used to provide furniture information and build brand image．Most furniture products were still purchased offline in China．Some researchers put forward a similar concept of Click and Mortar．Recently，OnlinetoOffline(O2O) was gradually regarded as one of the promising future patterns for furniture e-commerce．Meantime，some new patterns such as Mobile E-commerce and Social E-commerce have attained attention with the prevalence of mobile phones．Furniture firms faced a lot of challenges，but many researches concluded that the key of furniture e-commerce success relied on whether it could create customer value，of which product，consume experience and logistics were critical．In e-commerce context，traditional furniture products might not satisfy consumers’ personal demand and must be adapted to online sales．Some studies have explored the change of online furniture design pattern and developed new design procedures based on consumer need or different e-commerce patterns．New technologies such as Cloud services have been applied to enrich and provide more vivid experience of consumers during their online purchase process．In order to break up the logistic bottleneck，strategic alliances between furniture firms and other supply chain members were encouraged．Some studies have concluded that reverse logistics of recalled furniture affected consumer satisfaction and operation cost，therefore also required more attention．Studies also have found that consumers buying from traditional retail stores and from online retailing platforms were different in terms of their demographic characteristics．What is more，the two groups of consumers had slightly different focus in the purchasing process．Moreover，cross-cultural differences also existed in consumers buying online．Factors affecting consumer online purchase were grouped into product，consumer demographic characteristics，online contextual factors and others．It was found that the perception and evaluation of product attributes directly affected consumers’ perception of product quality and value．Online purchase intention was found to be equally influenced by product and consumers’ trust on online purchase．Some researchers argued that general consumers had not established sufficient trust on online purchase of furniture．Online contextual factors were also proved to affect online purchase intention mediated by perceived trust or value．Additionally，online user review was used by consumers for product evaluation to reduce the uncertainty and risks of online purchase．Researches suggested that online user review combined with social media should be an effective tool to improve customer loyalty．

Conclusions and Discussion This paper identifies potential areas for future research，such as redefining online customer strategy，reverse furniture logistics efficiency，service failure and online store’s remedy as well as the integrated application of e-commerce in the furniture supply chain．Consumer behavior in furniture e-commerce also requires new research perspectives，especially from the psychological characteristics of online consumers．Also cultural comparison between online consumers at home and abroad might be helpful in enriching furniture e-commerce study．

Key words：furniture；e-commerce；consumer behavior

Original Articlein牛群，刘宇伟．家具行业电子商务研究进展．林业经济问题，2017，37(1)：68-73．

DOI：10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.01.013

Abstract

Background China is the world power in furniture production and furniture export．However，China’s furniture manufacturing industry has been locked in the low end of the global value chain for a long time，furthermore China’s furniture manufacturing industry are lack of innovation capacity．So it is necessary to speed up industrial restructuring and achieve industrial transformation and upgrading under the background of supply side reform．The transformation and upgrading of furniture manufacturing industry is inseparable from the support of the producer services．So far，there are few literatures on the relationship between furniture manufacturing industry and producer services．Examining the coupling coordination degree between furniture manufacturing industry and producer services as well as compare the difference between the regions is important．

Methods The original data were collected from the China Statistical Yearbook，Tertiary Industry Statistical Yearbook of China，Tax Yearbook of China and Statistical Yearbook of 29 provinces or cities(excluding Taiwan，Tibet and Qinghai)from 2014 to 2015．Based on industrial development scale，industrial development structure，industrial development efficiency and industrial development potential，we constructed the “furniture manufacturing industry-producer services system”coupling coordination degree model and established the evaluation index system of comprehensive development level for furniture manufacturing industry and producer services．In addition，the weight of the index is calculated by the entropy weighting method．Finally，calculate the coupling coordination degree between furniture manufacturing and producer services by the coupling coordination degree model．

Results As the results of comprehensive development levels of furniture manufacturing industry and producer services，the average national development level of Chinese furniture manufacturing industry is 0.235 2，but the development between regions is very uneven．It appears the phenomenon of“outshine others”in Guangdong province．The coastal areas are relatively better in the comprehensive development level of Chinese producer services，but Beijing is the best．From the perspective of the 5 sub-sectors of the producer services，transportation，warehousing and postal services have best performance in the comprehensive development level，the following is financial service，and scientific research and technical services do worst．In general，the coupling coordination degree of China’s furniture manufacturing industry-producer services system is relatively low and the difference among regions is relatively large．When furniture manufacturing industry combine with 2 sub-sectors as the transportation，warehousing and postal services，the financial service achieve an early reluctant state of coordination．There are a small inter industry differences in the coupling coordination degree between furniture manufacturing industry and producer services in different provinces or cities．

Conclusions and Discussion Based on the above analysis and summary，according to the size of the coupling coordination degree 29 provinces or cities are divided into three categories．Meanwhile，the study put forward the following recommendations：Firstly，in order to achieve the coupling coordinated development between furniture manufacturing and producer services，the regions should focus on building and improving the interaction mechanism between the two industries；Secondly，the regions should improve the development level of producer services，and carry out more targeted services for furniture manufacturing industry；Thirdly，the region should also give full play to the functions of the government，targeted the introduction of a number of policies，build a number of public service platforms and implement policy guidance to promote the interaction between furniture manufacturing industry and producer services．

Key words：furniture manufacturing industry；producer services；coupling coordination degree

Original Articlein李英，刘广丹，赵越，等．家具制造业与生产性服务业耦合协调度研究．林业经济问题，2017，37(1)：74-81．

DOI：10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.01.014

Abstract

Background When the seed orchard entered a recession，the parent trees in Chinese fir seed orchard were in poor health and led to seed production decline year by year．Then the seed production was difficult to meet the needs of the growing forestation．Some research results had proved that the stump-reform technology on Chinese fir parent trees was viable，but the economic benefits in different reform methods were not considered．

Methods Aiming at the shortcomings of the previous studies，we selected the aged Chinese fir seed orchard which established in 1987 and located in Xianshui forest farm of Quanzhou country in Guangxi for the research．The data was collected from operational information of the forest farm for 5 consecutive years and the working experience of Seed orchard construction since 2005，meanwhile，other researchers’ results were referenced．Base on the combination of static and dynamic economic analysis method，this paper analyse the practical economic benefits of three treatments of non-reform，stump-reform and reconstruction in five years．In addition，predicting the economic benefits arising from the reconstruction of the seed orchard during the year of full production．

Results As the results from analyzing static economic index，in the first 5 years，reconstruction had put more than twice as aggregate investment as stump-reform and non-reform．After the stage of decline period of fruit bearing，the seed production increased year by year with the growth of 12% by tending without reconstruction．From the first year to the fifth year，the seed production of stump-reform increased by 3.2% than non-reform，the seed production of stump-reform and non-reform were higher than reconstruction．As the results from evaluating dynamic evaluation during the study period，there was no economic benefit in the first five years when the seed orchard was reconstructed，and the economic benefit of stump-reform was higher than non-reform by 11.4%．The net present value in the five years given period of non-reform was no negative when the discount rate was 8%．The net present value of stump-reform was positive from the fourth year，but it was negative of reconstruction．Medium and long term forecast dynamic economic indicators showed that although there was poor short term economic benefits of reconstruction，the seed production will increase by 55% on the original basis，it will be 60kg/hm2in the rich year．From the sixth year，the cash flow growth range of non-reform was the minimum，and reconstruction was the maximum．The net present value of stump-reform in the sixth year higher than non-reform if the discounted rate remained at 8%，but it need 13 years for reconstruction．The internal rate of return of reconstruction was 13.3% counted by the ways of triangulation with Linear Interpolation，it is higher than the benchmark benefit by 5%，this result showed that reconstruction gain the good economic benefits，although it not enter into rich year．

Conclusions and Discussion All the results illustrated that short term real economic benefit and medium and long term expected economic benefits of stump-reform were higher than reconstruction and non-reform．Though there was a superior amplification for reconstruction，it will gain good economic profit for reconstruction until the twelfth years．So stump-reform was a prefect reform method for aged Chinese fir seed orchard in the transient period of reform．Stump-reform could not only recover the seed production and quality in a short time，but also gain better economic benefits in a longer period of time．

Key words：Chinese fir；seed orchard；reform；economic benefit

Original Articlein黄开勇，唐文，戴俊，等．杉木大龄种子园不同改造方式的中短期经济效益评析．林业经济问题，2017，37(1)：82-86，92．

DOI：10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.01.015

Abstract

Background Forestry industry has both economic value and ecological value，it plays an important role in promoting economic development，protecting environment，conserving soil and water，etc．Since the 21st century，the global ecological problems become progressively worse，which seriously affect the socio-economic development and people’s life．As the result，environmental issues become the focus of attention．Forest resources as the core and foundation of the ecosystem must be well developed and reasonable protection．In modern investment theory，the value of opportunity is more and more important．The traditional cash flow discount model has no consideration of the value of opportunity．Therefore，it’s often underestimate the enterprise value in the high-speed growth．So the scientific assessment of forestry listed companies’ value was helpful to us to know the accurate information about intrinsic value and development potential．Meanwhile，reasonable price in forestry industry based on real option pricing method would be conducive to resolve the financial problem，when the industry developing．Therefore，it had an important practical significance in improving the model of evaluating forestry industries’ value．

Methods This paper evaluated 6 forestry listed companies which are listed in Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange by B-S option pricing model with the correction．The realistic economic and social environment is difficult to meet the assumption of B-S option pricing model．Therefore，the B-S option pricing model is modified according to the Merton option theory．The revised pricing model takes into account the impact of the stock dividend on the option value，reducing the possibility of overriding call options．The model results are more real and effective．

Results Comparing the valuation and market value of forestry listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange，we found that: the range of valuation was smaller than market value exhibited a characteristic as steadily; the market value hovered around the valuation with small deviation in consideration of complex macro-economy trend and industry situation; the value of the evaluation can reflect the market value in some way，the evaluation results are objective．Analyzing the parametric sensitivity，we found that the valuation went up and down depending on parameter values，showed a positive correlation between them．Overall，the volatility rate of underlying asset was more sensitive，and the sensitivity was low between valuation and risk-free rate (r)．Moreover，the fluctuation range of the enterprise evaluation value is much smaller than the parameter’s．Therefore，the valuation of forestry listed companies was insensitive to parameter values of B-S option pricing model; it implied that the evaluation results from real option pricing method had strong stability．

Conclusions and Discussion Real option pricing method is mainly used in oil extraction，internet，real estate and other industries．This paper provided a new idea for evaluating forestry industry through combining the real option pricing method and forestry．According to the calculation results，the evaluation value can reflect the market value to a certain extent．The results of the B-S option pricing model can be more scientific to reflect the true value，and the results are objective．Thus，this paper inferred that stabilization of markets can be estimated through real option pricing method，especially in estimating the stock bubble．Consequently，real option pricing method could be applied in China’s stock market．In order to prevent overestimating or underestimating the stock’s market value，stock exchange could use real option pricing method．Otherwise，the valuation of real option pricing method provided the suggestion of investment for investors．

Key words：real option pricing method；Black-Scholes option pricing model；the enterprise value evaluation

Original Articlein张开玄，王思博．实物期权定价法在林业上市公司价值评估中的应用．林业经济问题，2017，37(1)：87-92．

DOI：10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.01.016

Abstract

Background Fruit mulberry industry is based on fruit mulberry cultivation．Fruit mulberry which harvest the dominant role of mulberry and the subsidiary role of leaves，is a variety ofMorusalbaLinnaeus though selective breeding．Fruit mulberry has many functions like as unique medicinal，health care，tourism，sericulture，soil and water conservation and so on．Many researches about fruit mulberry industry often focused on the fruit mulberry value，the cultivation techniques and the product processing，etc．But the studies were still blank about the risk cause by the particularity of fruit mulberry and the countermeasures to cope with risks．

Methods This paper analyzed the benefits(the benefits included economic benefit，ecological benefit and social benefit)and specific industrial venture of fruit mulberry industry through spot investigation and consulting document．

Results Through analyzing the econmice benefit of fruit mulberry industry base on field research，fruit mulberry famers could get a high-earning through the production of mulberry and sericulture．The profit of fruit mulberry and silkworm rearing were mainly affected by geographical position，climate environment，conditions of soil manure and water，development situation of economic and tourism，variety of fruit mulberry．In addition to fresh food，mulberry can be processed into mulberry wine，mulberry fruit and other products．And fruit mulberry industry may bring more economic benefit because of the great domestic and international market demands and high price of fruit mulberry juice．Mulberry fruit can also be used to grow edible mushrooms，Gastrodiaelataand manufacture wood flooring，developing fruit industry can bring greater economic benefits．Through analyzing the ecological benefits of fruit mulberry industry，fruit mulberry is a deep-root plant，it has strong tolerance to drought，cold and barren soil and has strong adaptability．In addition，fruit mulberry could keep water and soil，clean water，green environment，clean air and play other ecological functions．Otherwise，fruit mulberry is easy to breed，so it proves to be one of good tree species for greening barren hills and Sand Fixation．Through analyzing the social benefit of fruit mulberry industry，develop fruit mulberry industry would provide more employment opportunities for community and promote social harmony and stability，because the fruit mulberry industry is a typical labor-intensive industries．Through analyzing the risk of fruit industry，although develop fruit mulberry may bring considerable benefits in economic，ecological and social，it still had a variety of risks．Fruit mulberry can be stored at room temperature for only one day because of high water content，thin peel，intolerant storage and preservation．If developing blandly in fruit mulberry industry without mature local processing enterprises，farmers and governments would bear the huge losses．On the other hand，the fruit bearing time of fruit mulberry is very short lead to a great pressure in picking，so it is not suitable to plant in large-area when lacking of labor resources．In addition，it should bring to high attention of the mulberry sclerotinia disease，which is a destructive disease and the largest threat for fruit mulberry industry．

Conclusions and Discussion Through comprehensive analysis，this paper put forward a series of countermeasures to avoid the risks of fruit mulberry industry：To draw up a scientific planning avoid the risk．Proper precautionary measures are taken conscientiously in mulberry sclerotinia prevention conscientiously．Developing the mulberry varieties which fruits and leaves can be used simultaneously increase production．Enhance economic performance by integrating mulberry industry with sightseeing．Mulberry planting develop with and mulberry processing at the same time．Furthermore，other countermeasures are also put forward in this paper，like as improving the recognition of consumers，strengthening mulberry fruit food management and product innovation，etc．

Key words：mulberry industry；industry；benefit；analysis；risk；aversion

Original Articlein周应彪，周钇宏．果桑产业的效益分析及风险规避．林业经济问题，2017，37(1)：93-96．

The Coupling Development Mechanism between Administration by Law and Economic Transformation in Collective Forest Regions in Southern China

HAN Junying1，2，YUE Shangzhi1

(1．School of Economics and Management，Northeast Forestry University，Harbin 150040 China；2．Law Faculty，Zhongshan College，University of Electronic Science and Technology，Zhongshan，Guangdong 528400 China)

Background With the implementation of forest tenure reform，intervention of government policy and enforcement of administrative law are demanding to solve issues like forestland fragmentation and single and low-efficient management mode so as to sustain a vibrant economic and ecological development in the collective forest region in southern China．Under the new economic background，AdministrationbyLaw(AL) andEconomicTransformation(ET) are two highly practical macro-propositions，which facilitates and restricts each other mutually．Clarifying the inherent relation between various elements of AL and ET is the key to transform government function rationally and optimize the relationship between the government and market．Methods From the microscopic perspective，this paper discusses the theoretical basis of the coupling development between AL and ET in the collective forest region in southern China by means of documentation analysis．Natural coupling was found in collective forest region in southern China．Furthermore，coupling design was applied AL and ET to evaluate the coupling effect．Results The coupling system of AL and ET in southern collective forest region is a complex system，consisting of AL subsystem and ET subsystem．Its basic elements include anthropogenic factor，government function，income，forestry economic upgrading and so on．Coupling system of AL and ET in southern collective forest region demonstrated a dissipative structure，with openness and complexity being the basic characteristics．Elements in the system are mainly coupled and united by flows of material，information and value．Therefore，the material flow (administrative，economic and waste flows)，information flow (artificial and natural information flow) and value flow (3-dimensional flow which includes investment，digestion and output flows) are the 3 basic functions for the coupling system．In addition，the system would achieve the synergy of social benefits and economic benefits．Coupling all elements of subsystems from AL and ET coupling system is the goal of the process，reaching a positive coupling effect of “1+1>2”．Meanwhile，negative coupling effect from subsystems can be eliminated so as to guarantee a sustainable and dynamic coupling development．Ultimately，synergetic development and virtuous interaction of AL and ET are achieved in collective forest region in southern China by effectively optimizing the internal structure of the economy．Furthermore，adaptability of the forest economy to external environment is enhanced，ensuring a sustainable and healthy development of forest economy．Coupling system of AL and ET can alleviate stress from economic transformation development on administration by law effectively，on the other hand，it also mitigates constraint from administration by law on economic transformation development effectively．Therefore，systematization of administrative by law and sufficient supervisory system play pivot roles in eliminating and eradicating stress and constraint from the economic transformation on reaching a vigorous forestry economy．Conclusions and Discussion The institutionalization of administration according to law，comprehensive streamlining administration and delegating power，supervision and restraint mechanism are the effective ways to achieving the coupling development between AL and ET in southern collective forest regions．

Southern collective forest；administration according to law；economic transformation；coupling

Professional Differentiation and Determinants of Worker Households in Key State-Owned Forest Region

ZHU Hongge，HU Shilei

(College of Economics and Management，Northeast Forestry University，Harbin 150040 China)

A Viewpoint of Reimbursable Usage System on State-Owned Forest Resources

ZHOU Haichuan

(Research Institute of Forestry Policy and Information，Chinese Academy of Forestry，Beijing 100091 China)

Effect of Collective Forest Tenure Reform on the Management Pattern of Fast-Growing and High-Yielding Timber Forest：Take Guangxi As an Example

ZHOU Zejian1，2

(1．College of Life and Environmental Sciences，Minzu University of China，Beijing 100081 China；2．Forestry Engineering Department，Guangxi Eco-engineering Vocational and Technical College，Liuzhou，Guangxi 545004 China)

Selection of Urban Forestry Based on the Public Preference

ZHAO Zheng，MA Ben，WEN Yali

(School of Economics and Management，Beijing Forestry University，Beijing 100083 China)

Incentive Effectiveness of Ecological Compensation Mechanism for Grain-to-Green Project：From the Perspective of Heterogeneous Farmers

ZHANG Xing，ZHANG Wei，ZHAO Minjuan

(College of Economics and Management，Northwest A&F University，Yangling，Shaanxi 712100 China)

Peasants’ Tourism Income，Loss and Protection Attitudes in Suburban Forest Park：Take Fujian Province for Instance

LAI Qifu，HUANG Xiujuan，ZHU Jiajia，HUANG Jielong

(College of Management，Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University，Fuzhou 350002 China)

Research on Exploration Potential Evaluation System of Forest Health Tourism

LU Xiaomei1，2，ZHANG Xin1，2，GAO Shuchun1，2

(1.School of Management，Hefei University of Technology，Hefei 230009 China；2.Key Laboratory of Process Optimization and Intelligent Decision-making，Ministry of Education，Hefei 230009 China)

Research on the Development of Ecological Tourism of Bamboo Forest based on ETM+ Image：A Case Study of Xianning City

CHEN Lijun1，SU Jinbao2，HUANG Yongqi1，YANG He1

(1.Tourism Culture and Geographical Science College，Huanggang Normal University，Huanggang，Hubei 438000 China；2.College of Economic Management，Northeast Forestry University，Harbin 150040 China)

Impacts of Livelihood Capital on Livelihood Strategy Choice in the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Background：A Case Study of 7 Counties in Tibet

CHEN Xiangning，WU Zhaoliang，LI Xinfei，MI Feng

(College of Economics and Management，Beijing Forestry University，Beijing 100083 China)

The Bilateral Trade Potential of Chinese Forest Products Based on Gravity Model：Focus on Trade between China and Central and East European Countries

WAN Lu，Gao Li，CHENG Baodong

(School of Economics and Management，Beijing Forestry University，Beijing100083 China)

A Review of E-Commerce Practice in Furniture Industry

NIU Qun，LIU Yuwei

(School of Business，Yangzhou University，Yangzhou，Jiangsu 225100 China)

Coupling Coordination Degree between Furniture Manufacturing Industry and Producer Services

LI Ying，LIU Guangdan，ZHAO Yue，YANG Yang

(School of Economics and Management，Northeast Forestry University，Harbin 150040 China)

Medium and Short Term Economic Benefit by Different Reform Ways in Aged Chinese Fir Seed Orchard

HUANG Kaiyong1，2，3，TANG Wen4，DAI Jun1，2，3，CHEN Qin1，2，3，ZHANG Feng4

(1.Timber Forest Research Institute，Guangxi Forestry Research Institute，Nanning 530002 China；2.Guangxi Key Laboratory of Superior Timber Trees Resource Cultivation，Nanning 530002 China；3.Guangxi Cultivation Centre for Superior Species of Chinese Fir，Nanning 530002 China；4.Xianshui Forest Farm of Quanzhou Country，Guangxi，Quanzhou 541511 China)

Application of Real Option Pricing Method in Valuation of Forestry Listed Companies

ZHANG Kaixuan1，WANG Sibo2

(1.Northwest Institute of Historical Environment and Socio-Economic Development，Shaanxi Normal University，Xi’an 710062 China；2.Department of Rural Development，Graduate School，Chinese Academy of Social Sciences，Beijing 102488 China)

Benefit Analysis and Risk Aversion of Fruit Mulberry Industry

ZHOU Yingbiao1，ZHOU Yihong2

(1．Academy of Agricultural Sciences，Zhaotong，Yunnan 657000 China；2．School of Journalism，Renmin University of China，Beijing 100872 China)

2016-05-09

周应彪(1966-)，男，云南昭通人，高级农艺师，硕士，从事蚕桑产业方面的研究，(电话)18987016020，(E-mail)zhyb9876@qq.com。

10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.01.016

F326.13

A

1005-9709(2017)01-0093-04