人工智能：是福还是祸？

When people think of artificial intelligence （AI）—the study of the design of intelligent systems and machines—talking computers often come to mind. But most AI researchers are focused less on producing clever conversationalists and more on developing intelligent systems that make people&apos；s lives easier—from software that can recognize objects and animals， to digital assistants that cater to1）， and even anticipate， their owners&apos； needs and desires.

But several prominent thinkers， including the famed physicist Stephen Hawking and billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk2）， warn that the development of AI should be cause for concern.

人工智能（AI）研究的是智能系统和智能机器的设计，当人们想到它时，脑中出现的往往是会说话的计算机。但大多数人工智能研究者更为关注的不是制造聪明、健谈的机器，而是开发可以让人们的生活更加便利的智能系统，从可以识别物品和动物的软件，到能够迎合甚至预见主人需求和愿望的数字助手等等，不一而足。

但是，包括著名物理学家斯蒂芬·霍金和亿万富翁企业家埃隆·马斯克在内的一些富于思考的知名人士提醒大家，人工智能的发展应该引起我们的担忧。

Since the field of AI was officially founded in the mid-1950s， people have been predicting the rise of conscious machines. Inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil， director of engineering at Google， refers to a point in time known as "the singularity3）"， when machine intelligence exceeds human intelligence. Based on the exponential4） growth of technology according to Moore&apos；s Law （which states that computing processing power doubles approximately every two years）， Kurzweil has predicted the singularity will occur by 2045.

But cycles of hype5） and disappointment—the so-called "winters of AI"—have characterized the history of artificial intelligence， as grandiose6） predictions failed to come to fruition7）.

Nevertheless， a number of prominent science and technology experts have expressed worry that humanity is not doing enough to prepare for the rise of artificial general intelligence8）， if and when9） it does occur. Recently， Hawking issued a dire10） warning about the threat of AI.

"The development of full artificial intelligence could spell11） the end of the human race，" Hawking told the BBC， in response to a question about his new voice recognition system， which uses artificial intelligence to predict intended words. （Hawking has suffered from a neurological disease， and communicates using specialized speech software.）

And Hawking isn&apos；t alone. Musk told an audience at MIT that AI is humanity&apos；s "biggest existential threat". He also once tweeted12）， "We need to be super careful with AI. Potentially more dangerous than nukes13）."

But despite the fears of high-profile14） technology leaders， the rise of conscious machines—known as "strong AI" or "general artificial intelligence"—is likely a long way off， many researchers argue.

"I don&apos；t see any reason to think that as machines become more intelligent ... which is not going to happen tomorrow—they would want to destroy us or do harm，" said Charlie Ortiz， head of AI at the Burlington， Massachusetts-based software company Nuance Communications. "Lots of work needs to be done before computers are anywhere near that level，" he said.

自从人们自20世纪50年代中期正式开创了人工智能领域以来，人们就一直预言有意识的机器会兴起。谷歌工程总监、发明家、未来学家雷·库日韦尔提到了一个名为“奇点”的时间点，即机器的智力超越人类智力的时间。在科技的发展遵循摩尔定律（该定律声称计算机的运算处理能力大约每两年增加一倍）而呈几何级数增长的基础上，库日韦尔预测，奇点将会在2045年之前出现。

不过，轮番的热炒和失望（即所谓的“人工智能的寒冬”）成了人工智能发展史的特征，因为一个个过于宏大的预言都未能取得成果。

尽管如此，许多知名的科技专家都表示了担忧，担心人类对通用人工智能的兴起准备不足——倘若它真的出现的话。近日（编注：英文原文发表于2014年12月），霍金就针对人工智能的威胁发出了严重警告。

“完全人工智能的发展可能招致人类的灭亡。”在回答BBC关于自己新换的语音识别系统的提问时，霍金这样表示。该系统利用人工智能来预测他想要说的话。（霍金患有一种神经系统疾病，他使用专门的语音软件和别人交流。）

而持这一观点的不止霍金一人。马斯克在麻省理工学院演讲时向在场观众表示，人工智能是人类“生存的最大威胁”。他还曾发布过一条推文：“我们必须对人工智能格外小心，它可能比核武器更加危险。”

虽然这些备受瞩目的科技界领袖对人工智能心存忧虑，但许多研究者却认为，有意识的机器（即“强人工智能”或“通用人工智能”）的兴起可能还离我们很遥远。

“随着机器变得更加智能（这也不是明天就会发生的事情），它们就会想要毁灭或伤害我们，我认为这种想法毫无道理。”查利·奥尔蒂斯表示，他是总部位于马萨诸塞州伯灵顿的软件公司纽昂斯通讯公司人工智能部门的主管。“在计算机几乎接近这种水平之前，还有许多工作要做。”他说。

Artificial intelligence is a broad and active area of research， but it&apos；s no longer the sole province15） of academics； increasingly， companies are incorporating AI into their products.

And there&apos；s one name that keeps cropping up16） in the field： Google. From smartphone assistants to driverless cars， the Bay Area-based tech giant is gearing up17） to be a major player in the future of artificial intelligence.

Google has been a pioneer in the use of machine learning18）—computer systems that can learn from data， as opposed to blindly following instructions. In particular， the company uses a set of machine-learning algorithms19）， collectively referred to as "deep learning"， that allow a computer to do things such as recognize patterns from massive amounts of data.

Today， deep learning is a part of many products at Google and at Baidu， which is sometimes referred to as "China&apos；s Google"， including speech recognition， Web search and advertising， Andrew Ng， an artificial intelligence researcher at Stanford University who is now the chief scientist for the Chinese search engine Baidu， commented.

Current computers can already complete many tasks typically performed by humans. But possessing humanlike intelligence remains a long way off. "I think we&apos；re still very far from the singularity. This isn&apos；t a subject that most AI researchers are working toward." Ng said.

Instead， companies like Google focus on making technology more helpful and intuitive20）. And nowhere is this more evident than in the smartphone market.

人工智能是一个涉及面广、活跃度高的研究领域，但它已不再仅仅是学者们的研究范畴；如今，各大公司都越来越多地将人工智能融入自己的产品之中。

在这一领域，有一个名字被不断提及，那就是谷歌。从智能手机助手到无人驾驶汽车，这家总部位于旧金山湾区的科技巨头正在为成为未来人工智能领域的主力做准备。

谷歌在机器学习领域的应用方面一直都是先驱——机器学习是指那些能够通过数据进行学习而非盲目听从命令的计算机系统。特别是该公司使用了一套总称为“深度学习”的机器学习算法，它们使计算机能够进行诸如从大量数据中识别图案等的操作。

斯坦福大学人工智能研究员、现任中国搜索引擎百度的首席科学家吴恩达表示，目前，谷歌和百度（有时被称为“中国的谷歌”）这两家公司包括语音识别、网络搜索及广告投放在内的许多产品都具有深度学习的功能。

现有的计算机已经可以完成很多通常由人类来完成的工作，但是它们离拥有与人类相似的智力仍有很大的差距。“我认为我们距离奇点还非常遥远。奇点并不是大多数人工智能研究者正在研究的方向。”吴恩达说。

相反，谷歌等公司却致力于让科技变得更有用、更好用。这一点在智能手机市场比在任何领域都要表现得更为明显。

In the 2013 movie Her， actor Joaquin Phoenix&apos；s21） character falls in love with his computer operating system， Samantha， a computer-based personal assistant who becomes sentient22）. The film is obviously a product of Hollywood， but experts say that the movie gets at least one thing right： Technology will take on increasingly personal roles in people&apos；s daily lives， and will learn human habits and predict people&apos；s needs.

Anyone with an iPhone is probably familiar with Apple&apos；s digital assistant Siri， first introduced as a feature on the iPhone 4S in October 2011. Siri can answer simple questions， conduct Web searches and perform other basic functions. Microsoft&apos；s equivalent is Cortana， a digital assistant available on Windows phones. And Google has the Google app Google Now23）， available for Android phones or iPhones， which bills itself as24） providing "the information you want， when you need it".

For example， Google Now can show traffic information during your daily commute25）， or give you shopping list reminders while you&apos；re at the store. You can ask the app questions， such as "Should I wear a sweater tomorrow？" and it will give you the weather forecast. And， perhaps a bit creepily26）， you can ask it to "show me all my photos of dogs" （or cats， sunsets or even a person&apos；s name）， and the app will find photos that fit that description， even if you haven&apos；t labeled them as such.

While a phone that can learn your commute， answer your questions or recognize what a dog looks like may seem sophisticated27）， it still pales28） in comparison with a human being. In some areas， AI is no more advanced than a toddler. Yet， when asked， many AI researchers admit that the day when machines rival human intelligence will ultimately come. The question is， are people ready for it？

在2013年上映的电影《她》中，华金·菲尼克斯饰演的角色爱上了自己的计算机操作系统萨曼莎，一个通过计算机提供服务、变得具有感知力的私人助理。虽然这部影片带有明显的好莱坞烙印，但专家们表示，它至少说对了一件事：科技将在人们的日常生活中扮演越来越个性化的角色，将学习人类的习惯并预测人们的需求。

任何一个拥有iPhone手机的人大概都对苹果公司的数字助手Siri非常熟悉，Siri是在2011年10月作为iPhone 4S手机的一大特色首次推出的。Siri可以回答简单的问题，进行网络搜索并执行其他一些基本操作。微软的Windows手机上也有类似的产品，即数字助手“微软小娜”。谷歌则推出了安卓手机和iPhone手机都可使用的谷歌手机软件Google Now，它号称提供“你想要的信息，当你需要它时”。

譬如，Google Now可以在你每天上下班的路上为你显示交通状况，或是当你在商店时提醒你购物清单的内容。你可以问这款手机软件问题，比如“明天我需不需要穿毛衣？”，它就会给你提供天气预报。此外，或许有点让人感到毛骨悚然的是，当你要求它“给我看看我所有的狗狗照片”（或是猫咪、日落，甚至是某个人的照片）时，这款手机软件就会找出符合描述要求的那些照片，即使你并没有在这些照片上标注这样的标签。

虽然一部能够了解到你的上下班路线、回答你的问题或是识别出狗狗模样的手机可能看起来非常先进，但是它跟人类相比还是相形见绌。在某些方面，人工智能并不比一个学步的孩子聪明多少。可是，许多人工智能的研究者在被问到时都这样承认，终有一天，人工智能将可以与人类智力相匹敌。问题是，我们做好准备了吗？