开启亚欧互联互通大战略谱写亚欧产业合作新篇章

□ 文/张焕波

●（作者系中国国际经济交流中心副研究员)

在一个充满变数和复杂性的世界，世界各国和地区需要共同努力，以深化经贸合作为抓手，加强互联互通建设和产业对接，构建和平发展与合作共赢的新型国际关系。从全球来看，近年来全球经济、政治的重心向亚洲地区转移，正在形成欧洲、美洲、亚洲多极化的均衡发展局面；发展中国家和新兴经济体对世界经济增长的贡献增加，在全球经济中的比重上升，按购买力平价法计算的发展中国家经济总量从2013年开始超过发达国家。以TPP、TTIP、RCEP等为代表的新的自由贸易和投资规则正在加快形成。以“数字化、智能化、绿色化”为特征的全球新产业、新技术、新业态、新模式不断涌现，这无疑给世界经济的平稳恢复和长期可持续发展注入了新的动力和活力。当前，世界经济仍处在国际金融危机后的深度调整和曲折恢复的过程当中，世界经济发展和各国政策取向都出现了严重分化，美联储正在酝酿加息，而欧洲和日本央行仍在加大量化宽松政策力度，美元升值和全球资本流动及汇率波动加剧，新兴经济体金融市场动荡增加了全球金融不稳定性，各国宏观政策不同步的影响更加明显，地缘政治风险等非经济因素导致部分地区动荡加剧，世界经济呈现低增长、不平衡、多风险的主要特征。

目前，在“一带一路”倡议背景下，亚欧合作站在了一个新的历史起点上，面临新的巨大合作空间和共同发展机遇。中国国家主席习近平2013年先后提出了建设“丝绸之路经济带”和“21世纪海上丝绸之路”，即“一带一路”合作倡议，具有重大的现实意义和深远的历史意义，表现了中国从经济大国迈向经济强国正确的义利观、历史观、发展观、安全观和世界观。“一带一路”倡议将会架起和平、增长、改革、文明的四座桥梁，并将促使中国与沿带沿路国家和地区努力打造政治互信、经济融合、文化包容的利益共同体、命运共同体和责任共同体，构建各方融合发展的大格局，共同担当维护世界和平与发展的重任，共享发展的机遇和利益。“一带一路”倡议受到了国际社会的广泛认可和支持。欧洲各界对“一带一路”倡议已经有了较客观的认识，表达了积极的态度。英国、德国、法国、意大利、卢森堡等欧洲国家积极参与亚洲基础设施投资银行，为亚欧国家深化金融合作树立了良好榜样。“一带一路”战略背景下的亚欧合作，不但将为亚欧各国和地区人民带来实实在在的利益，也将为全球经济可持续发展注入强大的动力，开辟人类历史新的纪元。“一带一路”战略的一头是活跃的东亚经济圈，一头是发达的欧洲经济圈。亚欧大陆是世界上面积最大、人口最多、国家最多的大陆，也是发展机会最多、合作潜力最大、共享利益最多的大陆。近年来，亚欧各领域合作与交流不断深入，取得了令人瞩目的成就，但是亚欧合作水平与两个大陆本身的地位相比还有较大差距，还存在一些瓶颈。例如，在交通运输网络方面，存在联而不通，通而不畅的问题；在产业和项目对接方面，还缺乏有效的平台和模式；在贸易投资方面，仍存在一些摩擦和掣肘。亚欧互联互通既指交通、管道、园区等“硬件”基础设施的互联互通，也包括贸易投资、民心文化等“软件”基础设施的互联互通。概括来看，亚欧互联互通包括以下六个方面的内容。

一是推动基础设施互联互通。在历史上，任何一个国家和地区，创造性的连接都会使区域经济联系产生巨变，惠及更广阔的地域。新亚欧大陆桥沿桥综合交通基础设施建设已取得重要进展，进一步提升和完善新亚欧大陆桥各节点交通实施和便利性，将成为推动亚欧基础设施合作的关键抓手。同时，亚欧海底光缆和跨海大通道建设也需要加快推进。未来亚欧将形成涵盖海运水运网、高速公路网、高速铁路网、航空网、通信光缆网、信息高速公路网等在内的亚欧高水准基础设施互联互通网络。

二是促进贸易投资自由化便利化。推进贸易投资便利化，逐步形成以点带线，从线到片，促进形成互利共赢、多元平衡、安全高效的开放型经济体系。欧盟是世界上最大区域经济组织和经济最发达和规模最大经济体，是海上丝绸之路和陆上丝绸之路的终点。亚洲是最具发展活力和潜力的地区之一，拥有世界总人口60%，经济总量占全球的三分之一，已经成为世界经济的第三极。亚欧大陆不断深化经贸合作，将为世界经济发展提供不竭动力。应把构建亚欧大陆自贸区提上日程，加快研究，争取早日在亚欧大陆建立一个高标准、宽领域的全球开放性多变贸易和投资体系。

三是促进和深化金融合作。近年来，亚欧各国在平等互利基础上开展的一系列金融合作，成果不断显现，对于维护区域金融稳定、促进区域经济发展起到了十分重要的作用。整体来看，亚欧各国金融合作还处于起步阶段，需要进一步加强合作的广度和深度，在银行、债券、保险、衍生品市场、外汇市场等领域积极合作，加强货币互换，推进国际货币体系改革。同时，亚欧金融合作也需要抓手。中国倡导的亚洲基础设施投资银行，得到了除亚洲国家的积极参与,欧洲国家也积极的响应，例如，英国、德国、法国、意大利、卢森堡等国家积极参与，这为亚欧国家金融合作提供了一个重要平台。

四是加强产业互动和对接。当前，世界正处于大调整、大变革、大发展和大突破的非常时期，以“数字化、智能化、绿色化”为特征的新产业新技术新业态新模式不断涌现。亚欧国家间产业发展阶段，产业结构、研发水平等都有很大的不同，具有很强的互补性。在新一轮产业革命即将拉开大幕的背景下，亚欧国家应重塑区域产业布局，优化产业链、价值链和供应链，推动上下游产业链和关联产业跨国界、跨区域协同发展，共同提升区域产业配套能力和综合竞争力。

五是推进亚欧各国民心相通。国之交在于民相亲，民相亲在于心相通。民心相通是亚欧互联互通的社会根基。民心相通的深层基础是不同文化的相互相互交流、相互学习和相互融合。亚欧各国应立足于各相关国家多元文明的群体性复兴，通过提升文化的相互开放水平，推动不同文明交流碰撞，形成更具宽容精神的共同文化和永恒价值，汇聚和释放文化促进发展的强大正能量，实现更有效率、更具包容性的增长。应通过加强人民友好往来，增进相互了解和传统友谊。要促进人员、技术、服务在区域内的自由流动，鼓励就业和人才市场相互开放，拓展旅游合作，加强文化产业合作，共建世代友好家园。

In a world full of uncertainty and complexity,every country and region needs to work jointly to deepen economic and trade cooperation,furhter enhancing mutual connectivity and industrial connection and building new international relations characterized by peaceful development and mutually beneficial cooperation.From the global perspective,the global politics and economic focus is shifting to Asia in recent years,which helps make a balanced development situation multi-polarized by the Europe,the Americas and the Asia.The developing countries and the emerging economies are increasing their contribution to the world economic growth as shown by the increase of their proportion in the global economy.As measured by the Purchasing-power Parity,the economic gross of the developing countries has exceeded that of the developed countries since 2013.The new rules of free trade and investment represented by TPP,TTIP and RCEP are being formed at a rapid speed.The global new industries,new technologies,new formats and new models characterized by “Being Digital,Intelligent and Green”are emerging in succession,which will no doubt inject impetus and vitality to the smooth recovery and longterm sustainable development of the world economy.Currently,the world economy plagued by the international financial crisis is still trapped in the sharp adjustment and tortuous recovery.As a result,serious differentiations occur both in the world economic development and the states’policy orientation.The FED is planning to tighten rate;the European and Japan Banks are still intensifying the efforts of Quantitative Easing;the appreciation of dollars,the global capital flow and the currency fluctuations are becoming more violent;the turbulence on financial markets of the emerging economic bodies increases the instability of global finance;the effect generated by the asynchronism of states’macro policy appears more obvious;moreover,the non-economic factors,like the geopolitical risks,are leading to increasing upheavals in different areas.All in all,the world economy is now facing up with a low growth,an imbalance and more risks.

At present,under the background of the “Belt and Road”initiative,the Eurasia cooperation stands at a new historical starting point and enjoys large cooperation space and common development opportunities.The President of China Xi Jinping raised the initiative of building the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road,namely the “Belt and Road”cooperation initiative in 2013,which is of great realistic significance and far-reaching historic significance.It has shown China’s correct view on righteousness and profits,on history,development,safety and world view when China is developing from an economic giant towards an economic power.Such an initiative will build four bridges of peace,growth,reform,and civilization;moreover,it will prompt China and the countries and regions along the Belt and Road to endeavor to build a community of shared interests,destiny and responsibility featured with mutual political trust,economic integration,and cultural inclusiveness.In doing so,each party involved will enjoy an integrated development,assume the responsibility of maintaining world peace and development,and share the opportunities and interests therein.This initiative has been widely recognized by the international community and earned lots of support.Take the Europeans for an example.People from all walks of life there have a more objective understanding of the initiative of the “Belt and Road”,and have shown a positive attitude.United Kingdom,Germany,France,Italy,Luxembourg and other European countries have actively participated in Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank,which has set up a good example for countries in Asia and Europe to deepen the financial cooperation.Under the strategic background of the “Belt and Road”,the cooperation between Asia and Europe will not only deliver tangible benefits to the people of countries and regions in these two continents,but also creat strong impetus for the sustainable development of the global economy.In a sense,it will help to open a new era in the history of mankind.The “Belt and Road”strategy connects the vibrant East Asia economic circle at one end and the developed European economic circle at the other end.Eurasia is the world’s largest and most populous continent with the largest number of states.Also it remains the continent enjoying the most opportunities for development,the greatest potentials for cooperation and the largest shared benefits.In recent years,Eurasian cooperation and exchanges in all fields have witnessed a continued deepening with remarkable achievements made,but when compared with the status of the two continents themselves,the level of cooperation still needs to be improved with bottlenecks every now and then.Take transportation network for instance.The transportation channels are sometimes so poor that they seem not to exist at all with many a block problem.Besides,effective platforms and models are absent for the coordination of industries and projects.This is also true in trade and investment: there are still some frictions and barriers that need to be removed.By Eurasian connectivity,it refers to the connectivity not only of “hardware”infrastructures,such as traffic,pipes,parks,but it also denotes that of “software”infrastructure,such as trade and investment,popular culture and others.To be specific,Eurasian connectivity consists of the following six areas.

Firstly,we should lift the infrastructure connectivity to a high level.Throughout human history,whatever country or region creative connectivity takes place in,it will inaugurate an amazing change in the regional economic links and benefit a wider region.Because significant progresses have been seen in the construction of the integrated transportation infrastructure along the New Eurasian Continent Bridge,what we need is a step further.The key here is to make all the junctions better connected with more convenience,and this is what we mean in promoting Eurasian cooperation in infrastructure.Meanwhile,Eurasia transcontinental submarine optical cable construction also needs to be accelerated.In the future,a high level infrastructure connectivity network will come into exist in Asia and Europe,which will cover the sea and water transportation network,the expressway network,the high-speed rail network,the aviation network,the communications optical cable network,the information highway network and so on.

Secondly,we should make trade and investment freer and more convenient.By doing so,Asia and Europe can gradually develop,from a dot to a belt line,and from lines to areas,an open economic system characterized by being mutually beneficial,multiple and balanced,win-win,safe and efficient.As the greatest regional economic organization and the world’s largest and most developed economy,EU is the end of the Maritime Silk Road and the Overland Silk Road.Remaining as one of the most vigorous and promising regions,Asia has become the third pole of world economy,with 60% of the world population and one-third of the world economic gross.If Europe and Asia continue to deepen economic and trade cooperation,this will provide an inexhaustible motive force for world economic development.Building a free trade zone of Eurasia should be put on the agenda.Pertinent researches need to be accelerated,and all parties should strive to establish an open and alert trade and investment system of a high standard with a wide range.

Thirdly,we should promote and deepen financial cooperation.In recent years,Asian and European countries have carried out a series of financial cooperation on the basis of equality and mutual benefit with remarkable achievements been made.Such a cooperation has contributed greatly to regional financial stability and economic development.However,the financial cooperation between Asian and European countries is still in its initial stages,which needs to be further strengthened both in breadth and depth.Active collaboration should be made in banking,securities,insurance,derivative markets,foreign exchange markets and other fields,and both parties need to enhance the currency swaps and promote the reform of international monetary system.Meanwhile,Eurasian financial cooperation need more specific measures.Not only have the Asian countries participated actively in Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank advocated by China,but the European countries have also responded positively to it.For example,the United Kingdom,Germany,France,Italy,Luxembourg and other countries are actively involved in it,which provides an important platform for the financial cooperation between Asian and European countries.

Fourth,we should strengthen industrial interaction and connection.At present,the world is undergoing a critical time full of profound adjustment,great changes,dramatic developments and breakthroughs.Moreover,new industry,new formats and new models characterized by “Being Digital,Intelligent and Green”are emerging constantly.Dispite the differences in industrial development stages,industrial structures and research and development levels,the industries in Asia and Europe are highly complementary to each other.When a new round of industrial revolution is around the corner,Asian and European countries should reshape the regional industrial layout,optimize the industrial chain,value chain and supply chain,promote the cross-border-and-region collaborative development of the upstream and downstream industry chains and the associated industries,and work jointly to upgrade the capacity and competitiveness of regional industries.

Fifth,we should promote the deep understanding between Asian and European countries.Friendly exchange between countries lies in amity between the people,while the amity lies in deep understanding.If the understanding is deep enough,the foundation for Eurasian connectivity is solid.Such an understanding is deeply rooted in mutual exchanges,mutual learning and mutual integration of different cultures.Based on the mass revival of diverse cultures in each country involved,Asia and Europe should be open and inclusive to cultural diversity,promote cultural exchanges among different civilizations,develop a common culture and eternal value characterized by tolerance,bring them together to release strong positive energy,and achieve more efficient and more inclusive growth.Asia and Europe also need to promote friendly exchanges among different peoples to enhance mutual understanding and traditional friendship.Both need to promote the free movement of labor,technology,services in the region,encourage employment and markets to open up to each other,expand tourism cooperation and strengthen cooperation in the cultural industry,so as to build a friendly home from generation to generation.