国际大腕重庆论道：服务贸易将成中国第一大产业

□ 文、图/见习记者 蒋正

作为中国目前GDP增长最快最有活力的城市，中国产业重心转移服务业的潮流对重庆来说，既是趋势，也是机遇。重庆知识流程外包业务占离岸服务外包执行总额约47%，高于全国平均水平18个百分点，标志着重庆服务外包产业正向现代服务业的高端发展。今后重庆进一步成长为中国服务业增长高地，中国服务贸易进出口高地，皆需抓住产业重心转移服务业的机会。

9月22-23日，第六届国际服务贸易(重庆)高峰会在重庆南坪国际会展中心召开。本届高峰会以“发展服务贸易,转变发展方式”为主题，紧扣当前国际服务贸易领域新热点、新趋势，结合重庆服务贸易发展现状，探讨重庆服务贸易发展机遇。会议举办主旨论坛，400余名来自美国、英国、印度、新加坡、澳大利亚等40多个国家和地区的跨国公司高层、有关商协会负责人，以及全国服务外包示范城市代表及我市有关部门负责人参加。重庆市市长黄奇帆做了开场发言，副市长刘强主持会议，中国社会科学院经济研究所所长裴长洪、毕马威亚太区总裁冯柏文、太平洋电信首席执行官卡尔·格里夫纳等发表了讲话。

中国社会科学院经济研究所所长、经济学家裴长洪认为，服务贸易将成为中国的第一大产业。他首先从供需关系方面解释了目前我国的外需减少，货物贸易出口困难的局面。这方面虽然重庆的进出口贸易增长表现优于全国平均水平，但是不能说重庆是例外。接着他说，服务贸易进出口呈两位数增长，国际分工需求是在服务贸易方面。服务贸易比货物贸易更有发展前景。然后他分析了我国在服务贸易上的薄弱，即服务贸易大概每年一千多亿美元的逆差。他提出我国发展服务贸易首先就要发展服务业，提高我国服务业竞争力。而且，这种竞争力首先要在国内市场培养，而且是原有竞争力（如廉价劳动力）衰弱了，新的竞争力（如现代物流）要发展起来。他列举了一个事实：从去年开始，中国的服务业占GDP的比重去年首次变成了和第二产业基本上持平。今年上半年首次超过第二产业，这就说明中国的产业结构在发生变化。由此他断言，服务业将成为中国的第一大产业。服务业是服务贸易的发展基础，服务业的发展能促进我国在国际服务贸易上的竞争力的提高。为发展服务贸易，他还提出要“两个抓”，抓对外开放，抓“两带一路”。

依裴长洪所言，服务业将成为中国的第一大产业，服务贸易是扩大出口的潜力股。产业重心转移服务业这一潮流应该也是重庆所需要遵循的。重庆目前货物贸易发展势头正猛，让人调转枪头发展服务贸易是否是为货物贸易发展泼冷水？裴长洪接下来说的话消解了笔者的疑惑：总的来看中国的贸易仍然是顺差，我们货物贸易仍然保持比较大的顺差，所以我们要利用这样好的机遇，加快发展服务贸易，使服务贸易的竞争力能够提高。因此在一段时间之内，货物贸易的顺差和服务贸易的逆差应该是一个常态。所以货物贸易也是必须坚持不动摇发展的，它还是弥补我国服务贸易逆差的保障。重庆经济发展有活力，货物贸易两位数增长，在保证了贸易顺差的同时，更应该逐浪在这股服务业发展潮流上。重庆的对外开放政策优越，又与“两带一路”战略直接挂钩，发展国际服务贸易又有良好的机遇。

重庆的对外开放政策优越，又与“两带一路”战略直接挂钩，发展国际服务贸易又有良好的机遇。

裴长洪是从货物贸易和服务贸易的出口的方向来谈的，而接下来的毕马威亚太区总裁冯栢文却是从对外投资的方向来谈的，他的观点也触及产业升级和提高国际贸易竞争力的问题。虽然通常提到提高服务业竞争力，我们更多地想到的是引进技术、引进经验，用对外投资来发展服务业和服务贸易对我们来说算是另辟蹊径，且听他这位澳大利亚人用流利的普通话在讲台上滔滔不绝地发言。

冯柏文的观点是，中国已经步入转折期，产业面临转型升级，而产业升级的一个重要途径就是利用海外资源。而利用海外资源，中国的业务模式更多的是国际承包和对外投资相结合，同时以工程承包换资源的项目会越来越多。这是投资行为扩大服务贸易的例子。在一些非传统的行业内，中国企业的对外投资呈现出较快的增长态势，这其中就有服务业的投资。通过这些海外投资，中国获取先进的技术和经验，实现从劳动力密集产业，低端产业向具有新技术、新材料、新能源特征的高端产业转变的目标。这也有助于中国提高服务贸易竞争力，通过投资走出去。因而，“中国跨国企业，为获取各种资源和能力而进行的对外投资活动，将在促进国内经济转型过程中发挥重要作用。”

根据商务部发布信息，2012年前8个月，我国对外投资资金流向商务服务业的占比是56.8%，2013年前11个月占比是34.1%。我国服务业对外投资已经受到如此青睐，重庆亦可借投资促产业转移和升级。

International big shots share insights in Chongqing Service trade will become China’s largest industry

For Chongqing, a city with the fastest GDP growth and the utmost vitality, the shifting of China’s industrial highlight to the service industry is both a trend and an opportunity. The city’s business volume of knowledge process outsourcing(KPO)takes up 47% of its total off-shore service outsourcing volume, 18% higher than the national average level, showing the escalation of Chongqing’s outsourcing industry into the high tiers of the modern service industry. In the future, in order to become a highland of China’s service industry and an import and export highland of service trade, Chongqing needs to seize the opportunity of such a shift.

On September 22 and 23, the 6th International Service Trade(Chongqing)Summit was held in Chongqing International Convention and Exhibition Center in Nanping. Titled “Developing Service trade and Transforming the Development Mode”, this summit explores the business opportunities in Chongqing’s service trade by centering on new heated topics and new trends in international service trade area in combination of the status quo of the industry. The keynote forum of this summit was attended by senior managers of transnational enterprises and heads of relevant chambers of commerce and trade associations from 40 countries and regions, including the US, Britain, India, Singapore and Australia, and also by persons in charge from national service outsourcing model cities and relevant authorities in Chongqing. Mayor Huang Qifan delivered an opening speech during the summit presided by deputy mayor Liu Qiang. Pei Changhong, director of Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Science, Vaughn Barber, Asia-Pacific President of KPMG and Carl Grivner, CEO of Pacnet also delivered the speeches.

Pei Changhong, economist and president of Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Science, believed that the service industry will become China’s largest industry. He f i rst explained that the decrease of China’s external demand causes difficulties in commodity export in terms of demand and supply. Though Chongqing’s import and export growth is higher than China’s average level, the city is not remarkably better than others in terms of export. He later pointed out that the import and export of service trade increases by double digits, and the demand of international division of labor lies in the service trade, which shows that the service trade has greater potentials than the commodity trade. He then proceeded to analyze our current weakness in service trade, namely over 100 billion US dollars of trade deficit each year. To develop service trade, the first step is to promote the service industry and increase the industrial competitiveness. Such competitiveness shall be fostered inside China through reducing the original competitiveness(including cheap labor)and enhancing new competitiveness(including modern logistics). An example cited by him goes as follows: since last year, China’s service industry took the same proportion in GDP as the secondary industry, and in the first half of this year, it surpassed the latter. These facts ref l ect the changes in the country’s industrial structure. Judging from these aspects, he believed that the service industry will become the largest industry in China. The service industry is the foundation for the service trade, whose development can improve our competitiveness in international service trade. He also pointed out that we shall ramp up both opening-up and “Two Belts, One Road”.

According to Pei Changhong, the service industry will become China’s largest industry and thus the service trade has the potential to expand export. Chongqing should follow the trend of the shifting of industrial highlight to the service industry. The city’s commodity trade currently has a strong momentum, but will it be dampened if developing the service trade is encouraged? Pei’s further explanation put off such doubt. Overall speaking, China has a trade surplus and a large commodity trade surplus in particular, so we can take the opportunity to promote the service trade and improve its competitiveness. Within a certain period, there will be consistent surplus in commodity trade and def i cit in service trade. We shall adhere to developing the commodity trade, as it supplements the def i cit in the service trade. With vigorous economic growth and a double-digit growth of commodity trade, Chongqing shall also promote its service industry while it ensures its trade surplus. With the superior supporting policies of openingup and its strategy of “Two Belts, One Road”, the city is endowed with favorable opportunities in developing the international service trade.

Pei based his analysis on the export of commodity trade and service trade. While Vaughn Barber, Asia-Pacific President of KPMG, put forward his opinions in terms of outbound investment. He also addressed industrial upgrading and improving competitiveness in international trade. Speaking of a higher competitiveness in the service industry, we are more likely to think of bringing in technology and experiences. But developing the service industry and the service trade by means of outbound investment is a new way. Let us hear out this Australian gentleman’s enthusiastic speech in f l uent Chinese.

According to Barber, China has stepped into the turning point when industries are faced with transformation and upgrading, mostly through exploring foreign resources. With regard to exploring foreign resources, China combines international contracting with outbound investment, and there will be more projects exchanging project contracting for resources. These are examples of how investment expands service trade. Investment by Chinese enterprises in some non-traditional industries abroad exhibits a quick growth, and the service industry is one of them. Such outbound investment enables China to obtain advanced technologies and experiences so as to achieve the goal of transforming labor-intensive and low-end industries into highend industries featured by new technology, new material and new energy. Besides, such investment can help improving China’s competitiveness in the service trade and push the country to go global. Therefore, “China’s transnational enterprises will play a very important role in its domestic economic transformation by outbound investment intending to acquire resources and capabilities.”

According to statistics released by Ministry of Commerce, over the first 8 months of 2012, 56.8% of total capital invested abroad went to the business service industry. Over the first 11 months of 2013, this percentage stood at 34.1%. This shows that the outbound investment in service industry has drawn much attention. Chongqing can also promote industrial shift and upgrading by means of outbound investment.