The Formation and Characteristics of the“Post Era”

Wang Yi

Since the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s, it has become increasingly common to conceive of history in terms of“post-x era”- the“Post-Cold War Era,”“Post-America Era,”“Post-Western Era,”to name a few. Behind the numerous eras that this label has applied to, we feel that the world today is undergoing great changes which are entirely different from the ones that have occurred during previous periods. Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that the changes clearly indicate the transition to a new cultural, economic, technological and geo-political time, and calls today an“era of great global transformation.”“Post Era”appears clearly in front of us, while the“Pre Era”which was both familiar and strange, full of blood and lacking true democracy, is on its way out of historical stage.

I. Towards the End of the“Pre Era”

Looking back at history, the world’s major historic and disruptive changes have often been achieved through war. War led to the demise of the old regime and the old empire, and the establishment of the new regime, the new empire and the new international system. From the Westphalian system to the Vienna system, the League of Nations in the wake of World War I, the United Nations and the Yalta system after World War II, European countries and the United States completed the occupation and division of wealth in the world through colonial wars and two world wars, and they established a dominant position over the world’s system. This general historical epoch,which we shall call the“Pre Era,”highlighted four basic characteristics:

The first was unilateral control. The U.S. and Europe manipulated various international and regional organizations to serve their own interests, and they governed and ruled the world through unilateral, coercive and one-sided means. In the“Pre Era”system, a very small number of developed countries imposed colonial oppression, military violence and economic exploitation upon the majority of countries. That world system found its expression in the global expansion of the capitalist mode of production, the increase of power politics and group politics, expanded international conflicts and continuous wars.The second characteristic is that the minority monopolizes while the majority suffers. By controlling the right to speak and relying on sufficient financial and technological advantages,a small number of Western countries ruled the majority of countries in the world, forcing developing countries to suffer and subjecting them to the domination of a small number of developed countries. As Martin Jacques said in his book When China Rules the World that“over the past 200 years, economic strength was concentrated in the hands of a small number of countries of Europe and North America. It is an abnormal historical deviation. Western hegemony was one of the great asymmetries of world history. Taken together, the metropolises of all the empires - the American, Belgian, British, Dutch,French, German, Italian, Portuguese, and Spanish - accounted for a mere 7% of the world’s land surface and just 18% of its population. Their possessions, however, amounted to 37% of global territory and 28% of mankind.”

The third characteristic is that power matters. With technological, military and economic advantages, the West bullied the weak and constantly waged colonial wars, bringing grave disaster to oppressed peoples. Karl Marx wrote in The Capitals that wherever they go, land lies waste and people are forced to leave their native place. After World War II, the establishment of the Yalta system ushered in a long and stable bipolar pattern in the“Pre Era.”In the Cold War, the Soviet Union suffered a defeat and collapsed in 1991 because of its weakened strength.The 1990s can be regarded as the peak moment of U.S. and Western hegemony in the“Pre Era”, and NATO and the EU quickly penetrated and expanded into the former Soviet Union.On the one hand, Western transnational companies became important tools for Western powers to implement their global strategy, expand rapidly in the world with great strength and government support, and to try to design a new international economic order. On the other hand, the U.S. and NATO worked very closely with the transnational companies. While Western corporations operated mostly on the economic front, the U.S.and NATO carried out strategic expansion, expanded their force from Europe to the rest of the world in an undisguised way,constantly launched so-called humanitarian intervention wars,and propounded Western interests and values.

The fourth characteristic has been so-called“salvation”by the superior peoples. Technological, economic and military superiority helped formulate a Western“racial superiority”and“savior”ideology. Westerners came to believe that they could do whatever they wanted in the world, forcefully pushing Western values such as“democracy,”“freedom”and“human rights,”along with the democratic system and development model. Since the 19th century, with the continued accumulation of colonial wealth and the completion of the Western Industrial Revolution,the West began to truly believe in the racist ideology, a theory of evolution and cultural superiority with the West positioned at the world’s center. The West preached the global universality and historical applicability of its system, imposing this on other peoples through a façade of“salvation.”In the eyes of Western countries, the Western model of democracy became the highest peak of the political civilization of mankind, and universal brotherhood could only be achieved on the basis of the Western democracy.

II. The Formation of the“Post Era”and Its Reasons

1. Strategic security pattern is gradually moving towards a balance

How are we now emerging from the Pre-Era to a new type of Post-Era? Firstly, there was the blow to the U.S. during the 9/11 attacks. From the end of the Cold War to the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the dissolving of the Warsaw Pact and the elimination of the threat of largescale war helped embolden the United States to try to dominate the world as a single superpower. With its swelling strength, the U.S. attacked on all fronts simultaneously like an irresistible force. Following 9/11, the“Fear America”feeling among many countries was replaced by the“America Fears”feeling which now overwhelmed the American people. The 9/11 attacks also changed the world, and became a watershed incident in the global strategic security structure. During the decade after 9/11, the world balance of power underwent historic changes.Both the hard and soft power of American moral assets, values and national resources have been impaired. The status of the U.S. dollar has continued to decline due to the country’s heavy debts. America’s single superpower position has been seriously weakened and its ability to influence the world has diminished.As the U.S. is moving from prosperity to a period of decline, it not only provides the platform for the people who are in favor of“peace-building”to put forward“new ideas”of global security governance, but it also brings excellent opportunities to develop a balanced multi-polar world. Historian Paul Kennedy has articulated that it is exactly in the decade after 9/11 that the U.S. neglected its domestic affairs while failing to view the world with a broad perspective. Kennedy stressed that the largest effect of 9/11 upon America was that it became distracted. It became distracted in two very important ways. In the first way, America became distracted from the many other things that were going on in the world. Secondly, it was distracted away from the erosion of its financial strength and international competitiveness. Even more worrisome is the fact that the decade distracted America from its“common wealth”- the common good of America itself and of its citizenry. The Bush Administration’s combination of expensive foreign wars and inexcusable tax cuts for the wealthy had dreadful effects upon U.S. federal deficits, upon America’s growing foreign dependencies, and upon the long-term future of the dollar.

Secondly, a peace-building strategy is now greatly checking the aggressive war-based strategy of the United States. During the 20 years from 1991 to 2011, the United States, in order to deal with non-traditional security challenges and to maintain its hegemony, launched or participated in six large-scale wars in the Persian Gulf, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo,Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. The United States is increasingly inclined to use force, and wars and the fabrications of“war theories”have reached an unprecedented level. However, the U.S. aggressive war strategy is now being blocked by the peacebuilding strategy. With the rise of emerging countries, the peace-building strategy in the international community, which advocates for peace, dialogue and cooperation in governance,has gradually emerged as an important force and become a strong constraint on American unilateralism and militarism.Emerging powers led by China, Russia and other countries are drawing lessons from history and proceeding from their own history and reality, advocating negotiated settlements of disputes through consultation and compromise, standing for“integrated governance”of global affairs through“soft power,”and opposing and boycotting U.S. militarism with more peaceful approaches.The EU earlier proposed a comprehensive management concept. China put forward concepts of“peaceful rise”and the“harmonious world.”In order to prevent the world from a clash of civilizations and promote world peace, stability and sustainable development, countries that are in favor of peace have formed an unprecedented force to check America’s militarism. When the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003, some European countries, China and Russia formed a de facto anti-war united front, making the war unjustified. On the question of Syria in early 2012, China and Russia withstood enormous pressures and strongly pushed for a peaceful settlement of the Syrian issue, preventing Syria from becoming a second Lybia. Indian senior diplomat M. K.Bhadrakumar wrote,“The situation in Syria will set the tone of the multi-polar world’s outlook and its features for the coming decades.”Robert Marquand also believes the situation in Syria“reflects a new world order.”

Thirdly, a relatively balanced security architecture is coming into being in the Eurasian continent. People see the coexistence of three old organizations - the EU, NATO and OSCE - and four new organizations, namely the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CIS), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization,ASEAN Regional Forum and the Six-party Talks Mechanism.The establishment of new security organizations of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the CIS Collective Security Organization constitutes a restraint NATO. And a new and more balanced strategic pattern is taking shape.

2. The economic structure is developing from a singletrack system to a dual-track system

Since the outbreak of the financial and economic crisis in 2008, the U.S., the EU, Japan and other major developed economies have been hit hard by the financial, economic, fiscal and debt crises. They are still facing difficulties today. The impact, influence and power of shock are no less severe than the“September 11”incident in 2001, having broad implications in financial, economic and social fields, and bringing about a profound strategic change in the world order. The financial and economic crisis is a harbinger for a new global economic and financial structure. In the international economic and financial field, the end of the“Pre Era”has very obvious implications.First, it shows that the international economic system led by the United States in a unilateral fashion is dysfuntional; second, it shows that developing countries, such as the BRICS countries,are now exploring different development paths from the West.It not only greatly pushed the international economic system to move from a single-track system towards a balanced dual-track system, but it also brought new hope and new opportunities for mankind to achieve common prosperity and a“harmonious world”.

The establishment and mission statement of the“G20”is historically significant. It declares that the“Pre Era”in which the world economic and financial landscape was controlled singularly by the West is a thing of the past. The developed and developing countries are entering a“dual-track”process in which they commonly manage the right to express themselves,the right to vote, and responsibilities and obligations in economic and financial fields. Facing the rapid development of China and other countries, the Western-dominated international system has begun a process of incremental change from within. The“G20”is replacing the“G8,”and it has already become the core platform for global economic governance and macroeconomic coordination, greatly expanding the legitimacy and representativeness of global economic governance. The formation of a two-track system helps form a more extensive governance body, not only including emerging countries,developing countries and traditionally developed countries, but also including the roles played by individuals, groups, nations,and transnational groups, thus enabling the broadest possible governmental and non-governmental roles.

Globalization has marked the end of the“Pre Era,”and it is the leverage of the international community that has put to an end to the single system of the“Pre Era”. Firstly, in terms of the system, the single system controlled by the West has been severely challenged by multi-polar development orientations inspired by globalization, such as a variety of value systems and different models of development. In 2008, the Lehman Brothers’bankruptcy triggered a financial and economic crisis in the U.S. and led to the decline of U.S. economic hegemony since the Cold War. At the same time, newly industrialized countries have begun to emerge in the past 10 years. Even though the“BRICS”economies represented by China, India,Brazil, Russia and South Africa tried to adapt to the economic rules formulated by the United States and were dependent on the U.S. market, they were still outside of the security alliance pillar of U.S. hegemony. Secondly, in terms of the national power, the trend of globalization is rapidly changing national political, economic, social and cultural power, so that nations are increasingly interdependent on the global society, and the state’s external independence and internal supremacy are subject to some constraints. Thirdly, in international relations,nations have growing needs and aspirations to be dependent on each other, seek help from each other, and to be equal and mutually beneficial. This has gradually replaced the Western single, compulsory and hegemonic form of the“Pre Era.”Fourthly, regarding ideology, globalization forced Western“superiors’salvation”and“universal democracy”concepts to face multiple challenges. The West has lost its superiority and pride in the face of the successes of other development models,and it is challenged by the impact of“Oritental system”to the Western way of governance and the hatred of Islamic extremists and terrorism toward Western“modernization.”Fifthly, so far as the pattern is concerned, the world economy has shown a trend of multipolarity. The rise of emerging powers means the relative decline of Western economic hegemony. Emerging countries have risen mainly due to the following reasons:

First, they are ascending because of sound social functions.Their governments have absolute authority, and their societies have strong cohesion. Government functions in the process of economic development play a huge role in organizing and leading enterprises to implement major development strategies, and these emerging countries also enjoy the support of African, Middle Eastern and Latin American countries. Second, they maintain social stability and promote sustained and rapid economic growth. Third, they implement independent political, economic and social policies and withstand the rules of the game imposed by big economic powers. Emerging countries attract foreign investment from transnational companies by opening up their markets while opposing all kinds of unfair practices imposed by developed countries. Four, they export to developed countries and attract foreign direct investment, achieving quick valueadded effects. For developed countries, economic globalization has greatly weakened governmental functions, making it difficult to win this economic battle. The U.S. dollar’s dominant position has been challenged by the Euro, the Japanese yen and the Chinese RMB. The economic prosperity of the United States is increasingly dependent on the help East Asian countries.

In short, in the modern international system, globalization has ushered in a new kind of governance that will replace the“Pre Era”status quo. The international system is still in a transitional stage from the“Pre Era”to the“Post Era.”How the developed economies and emerging economies use their strength and safeguard the interest of mankind will determine the future direction of the world.

III. The Characteristics of the“Post Era”

The“Post Era”and the“Pre Era”are the dialectical unity of opposites. Without a“Pre Era,”there could be no“Post Era.”The“Post Era”is a negation of the“Pre Era,”and the“Pre Era”international system was an imbalanced single-track system in which only a few developed countries benefited and the interests of most countries were severely compromised. In the“Post Era,”due to the emergence of countries and groups of developing countries, the international system has become more balanced and reasonable with the gradual formation of a dual-track system. Compared with the“Pre Era,”the“Post Era”has the following four basic characteristics:

First, it is characterized by a multi-based world. The evolution of the world situation and the development of international relations are increasingly multi-polar and diversified. From the end of the Cold War to the outbreak of the war in Iraq, America’s international influence and position were unparalleled in the world. At the time, neo-conservatism and American militarism were running rampant, and“unilateral control”by the United States and the West reached their peaks. But things turn into their opposites when they reach their extremes. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq served as a turning point for U.S.international standing and influence. Trapped in Middle Eastern wars, the U.S. neglected other international and regional issues.Meanwhile, the global strategic situation underwent significant changes, and the European Union, Russia, China, India, Brazil and other countries and groups of countries rising rapidly. The world started to see the appearance of a multi-polar pattern in which a“single superpower weakens while multi-powers jointly govern.”President Obama began to acknowledge the real existence of a multi-polar world, and this reality was very difficult for the United States to accept. As a result, multilateral trends were enhanced, and the multilateral organizations and diplomacy have become the most important way to safeguard national interests. Traditional mechanisms established after World War II by the United States and Europe will continue to function in the“Post Era,”but they will become less sufficient to deal with the times. Western countries were forced to acknowledge and accept the reality of multi-polarization, and the world is moving towards“common governance.”International governance is moving from the relatively fixed“P”(permanent)mechanism of the UN Security Council to a more flexible, more participated“G”(Group) mechanism, forming the“G2,”the“G8,”the“G20”and other groups in which emerging countries and developed countries combine their different interests.

Second, joint management. Different from the“Pre Era”featured by“minority monopolizes and majority suffers,”a new situation of“common development”comes into being in which traditional developed countries are growing relatively slowly while emerging countries and developing countries are growing fast. They also engage in“joint planning”to deal with the issue of global importance as well as hot-spot issues. First, the common interests of mankind are facing an unprecedented challenge, and it is difficult for any country to deal with increasingly prominent global issues in a unilateral manner. Global public issues are widely distributed in various fields: from global security to the international economy, exchange rates to trade protectionism,transnational capital management to environmental change.Second, with the development of scientific and technological innovation, there are more and more ways for people to obtain benefits, and common development can only be achieved through cooperation. The traditional zero-sum game theory has become obsolete. Military means will not only increase financial gain,but rather they will compromise the comprehensive national strength of a party which wins the victory, and even lead to domestic political, social and economic crisis. Third, the rise of the strength and position of emerging countries has helped them jointly manage different issues together with the developed countries. Starting from the 2009 BRIC Summit in Yekaterinburg,the BRICS countries made initiatives to push for the reform of the international financial institutions so as to reflect the changing economic situation in the world. Together, they sought to build a more stable, predictable, and diversified international monetary system and support the establishment of a more democratic multi-polar world. This is the first time in history that a request was made to ensure the legitimate rights and interests of non-Western countries in the world system, reflecting the common aspirations of the majority of developing countries.

Third, universal prosperity is of increasing importance. The“racial superiority”and“savior”ideology created by the West when it had technological, economic and military supremacy is unsustainable in the“Post Era.”The rise of developing countries and the gradual narrowing of the global wealth gap have rendered prosperity more universal. Mankind is in a period in which poverty is being eliminated with unprecedented speed.In 2005, the global poverty rate was 25%. It is decreasing 1-2%every year now and each year about 70 million people are lifted out of poverty. The United Nations Millennium Development Goals (by 2015 global poverty rate will be reduced to half of 1990 levels) were basically realized three years ago. From a long-term perspective, a sharp decline in poverty rates in the past six years will herald a new era. We are seeing the beginning of a large-scale development. According to OECD statistics, the number of poor countries in the world has been reduced from 55 to 25. Western scholars have coined the term the“Great Convergence”to explain the growing“universal prosperity.”Globalization makes developing countries and developed countries more“balanced.”Poor people in Latin America accounted for 50% of the continent’s total population in 1990. Now this proportion has dropped to 30%. In Africa, according to World Bank statistics, there are now about 60 million people who have an annual income of $ 3,000,and in 2015 the figure will reach 100 million people. Do these developments mean that the“Post Era”we are living in is getting closer to communism? In this regard, the well-known Chinese scholar Wang Jisi said:“The boundaries between the West and the non-West are gradually blurred because of the changing growth and decline of the strength between the West and the non-West, the trend of world economic integration, the internal changes of different countries and the common challenges facing mankind. Marxists and Communists believe that states will gradually wither away and mankind will move toward one world of communism through the proletarian revolution, the dictatorship of the proletariat and the socialist construction.”

Fourth, democratic governance is becoming increasingly important. Globalization, the rapid development of multipolarization, intensified uneven economic development and international cooperation to respond to various global issues,gave birth to the democratic governance of international relations. A democratization of international relations is to use democratic mechanisms in international relations, or implement democratic principles in international affairs. This philosophy stresses that each country is an equal member of the international community, and major issues in international affairs should be resolved through consultation by all countries,no matter how big or how small, strong or weak, rich or poor.Of course, the democratization of global governance, and the democratization of international relations proposed by China,Russia and other countries do not mean that democratic mode of government within countries will be extended to the international community and international relations. It only means that the policy-making on global public issues should be democratisized,and global issues and the relationship between countries should be supervised and implemented under a democratic process.

War was one of the main features of the“Pre Era.”However, in the“Post Era,”the cost of war is extraordinarily high, while its role is greatly reduced. In the view of Confucius, even though countries have to keep military means, they cannot give prominence to military means. If remoter people are not submissive, all the influences of civil culture and virtue are to be cultivated so as to influence them towards your way of life. This means that it is better to use moral and cultural charisma and influence, rather than war, when dealing with other countries. For some time after the end of the Cold War, global economic governance was carried out between the Western powers centered on the G7,and developing countries were largely excluded. The impact of the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis has been more severe to the developed countries than to the developing countries. As a result, the model of economic development and model of financial management in developed countries have been seriously questioned. The rhetoric and reality of the 99%, so prominent in the Occupy movement, fully exposed the problems of human rights in Western countries. The social unrest of developed countries has shattered the“American Dream”and the“European dream,”and“American-style globalization”is turning to be the globalization of“de-Americanization,”as well as the“de-Americanization”in the global system. The developed countries have started to profoundly reconsider global governance, and they are working together with emerging countries to develop a new mode of governance.

In summary, the“Post Era”has shown us some basic characteristics:“joint planning”instead of the“unilateral leadership”of the“Pre Era”;“common development”as opposed to the“majority suffers”of the“Pre Era”,“universal prosperity”instead of the“superiors’salvation”of the“Pre Era”,“democratic governance”as opposed to the“power reigns supreme”of the“Pre Era.”During the pre-Qin era, the great Chinese philosopher Guanzi said that hegemony is based on power, while the humane authority (kingly way) is based on both power and moral concern.“He who wins the full support could be the king, he who wins half support is the hegemon.”In accordance with the logic of the sages of China, U.S. hegemony in the“Pre Era”at best only has the support of half of the countries. According to American scholar Simon Serfaty, even“half the world”is dangerous. In an article titled“Moving into a Post-Western World”in Washington Quarterly, he wrote,“The all-American map of unipolarity looked simple but proved exhausting, and the bipolar map of the Cold War was stable but remained dangerous. Only the next few years will tell whether a new generation of political leaders in the United States, as well as in Europe, will be able to grasp the enormity of what their predecessors achieved during the past century for what Dean Acheson defined as ‘half the world,’and how much can still be done in the 21st century for the other half.”It is exactly these basic characteristics diametrically different from those of the“Pre Era”which show that the“Post Era”will no longer feature Western hegemony. Instead, it will have universally accepted policies and welcomed kingly countries,leading to a complete, fair and balanced world.