Sino-US Relations: Present and Future

Ma Zhengang

Forty years ago, US President Richard Nixon’s visit to China marked the beginning of a process of normalizing Sino-US relations. After more than six years of difficult exploration, the two countries established full diplomatic relations on January 1,1979.

For forty years, Sino-US relations have been through a long process of development, and the road has been bumpy and tortuous but with comprehensive and fruitful results. The future development of the relationship between China and the United States, two big powers with their respective influence in the world,will be of critical importance to the future of the two countries and the world at large and has drawn more and more attention from the international community.

I. Ups and Downs in Sino-US Relations

Sino-US relations have grown into one of the most important as well as complex bilateral ties in the world. The intricacies of the course of the Sino-US relationship remain rare for any two large countries in the world.

Sino-US relations had a very fragile beginning: It started from a virtually freezing point. In October 1949, the new China was born in an international environment of Cold War confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union. Hostile to China which adopted a“one-sided”foreign policy to embrace the socialist camp, the US mustered other Western countries to launch a confrontational policy towards China featuring political isolation, economic blockade, and containment. And the US also concluded a military alliance with the Taiwan authorities to directly obstruct China’s reunification. Later,China and the United States engaged in one and a half“hot wars”on the Korean Peninsula and in Vietnam, leading to lengthy mutual estrangement and hostility between the two sides with virtually no bilateral contacts. Then China and the United States began to have contact with each other during the 1954 Geneva Conference on a peaceful settlement of the Korean question and the problem of restoring peace in Indochina, and started to hold talks at ambassadorial level on August 1, 1955,the only channel of communication then between China and the US. The two sides had held a total of 136 meetings by February 20, 1970, and 15 years of marathon negotiations, known as a“dialogue of the deaf”, produced no progress on substantive issues.

In January 1969, Richard Nixon became US President. He believed that the international situation had undergone great changes, there had emerged five main power centers in the world- the United States, Western Europe, the Soviet Union, China and Japan, and the Soviet Union had become a“very potent,powerful, and aggressive competitor”. To take advantage of Sino-Soviet contradictions and antagonism so as to face off against the Soviet Union and maintain the hegemony of the United States, Nixon intended to improve relations with China. Facing a direct security threat from the Soviet Union at that time, China offered a positive response to Nixon’s desire to improve bilateral relations.

On February 21, 1972, President Nixon paid a visit to China upon invitation and the two countries realized their first“handshake across the Pacific Ocean”in more than 20 years. During the visit,the two sides released the well-known“Shanghai Communiqué”.Six years later, the US accepted three Chinese preconditions for establishment of diplomatic relations: the US abrogated its mutual defense treaty with the Kuomintang, withdrew all its forces from Taiwan, and severed“diplomatic ties”with the Kuomintang. The two sides issued a joint communiqué on the establishment of diplomatic relations and a formal diplomatic tie was established between the two countries. On August 17, 1982, China and the US issued a joint communiqué (the“8.17 Communiqué”) on US arms sales to Taiwan. The three joint communiqués served as a foundation for Sino-US relations.

Sino-US relations enjoyed a rapid development in the decade following the establishment of diplomatic relations. The mutual strategic need for a joint response to Soviet expansionism was the most powerful bond for Sino-US relations. The United States attached importance to China’s special status in the“United States-Soviet Union-China Triangle”and regarded China as a“friendly, non-allied country”. The two countries steadily expanded their cooperation in various fields, with continuously enhanced mutual strategic trust. Frictions remained between them during the period, but strategic considerations had dominated the trend of Sino-US relations while other issues were deemed to be of less significance.

When Gorbachev came to power, the Soviet Union began to adopt a platform featuring a so-called“humane, democratic socialism”as well as a“new thinking”in foreign policy, and USSoviet relations began to ease up. As the international climate changed, the strategic factor in Sino-US relations was gradually weakened. Unrest hit China in late spring and early summer of 1989, and the United States took the initiative to announce sanctions against China, setting off a powerful anti-China wave among Western countries and sending Sino-US relations to their lowest ebb. However, sanctions against China were not in America’s global strategic and long-term interests. On July 1, 1989, President Bush sent National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft to China for a secret visit. Deng Xiaoping made it clear that“China’s internal affairs brook no interference by anyone.China will not follow others’baton”. He told the US that“whoever tied the knots will have to untie them”and that“to let bygones be bygones, the United States should take the initiative ... and should not expect China to beg for it in any way”. In November 1989, Scowcroft visited China again, Deng Xiaoping put forward a package of proposals, and the two sides agreed to an early end to their disputes and opening up the future. While Sino-US relations just saw an opportunity to improve, dramatic upheavals took place in Eastern European countries, and the Soviet Union collapsed. After re-evaluation of the international situation, the US became no longer eager to improve Sino-US relations as it concluded that China would also not be able to sustain for a long time and was losing its strategic value to the US. This situation lasted until 1993.

However, beyond American expectations, the post-Cold War world did not evolve as the US intended, and China did not collapse: instead, it enjoyed a good momentum of development.Then Western countries began to cancel their sanctions against China one after another and to actively improve relations with China. In this regard, President Clinton proposed a new China policy of“congagement”-a combination of engagement and containment. Chinese and American leaders held their first official meeting in four years in Seattle in September 1993, and the bilateral relations began to improve and maintained a good momentum of development in general. At one point, the two sides expressed their commitment to building Sino-US strategic partnership.

After his inauguration as US President, George W. Bush pursued a policy of“unipolar hegemony”. In the early days of his administration, he took a tough stance on China, openly declared that the US would“help defend Taiwan”, and decided to sell arms to Taiwan on a large-scale. The subsequent collision incident involving Chinese and American aircrafts in Hainan made Sino-US relations once again strained. After the“9.11”incident, the United States made a strategic readjustment and defined antiterrorism and prevention of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction as American main strategic objectives, leading to increased American strategic need for China, an opportunity to improve and develop Sino-US relations. During President George W. Bush’s administration, the overall development of Sino-US relations was relatively smooth. In September 2005, then US Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick stated that China and the US should be stakeholders in global affairs. His statement indicated that when the international system was experiencing profound changes, the United States paid more attention to the role of China and hoped to develop a comprehensive, cooperative relationship with China.

When President Obama took office in 2009, he basically followed George W. Bush’s China policy and then went a step forward.In their first meeting during the G20 London summit, Chinese and American leaders decided to build“positive, cooperative,comprehensive”ties between the two countries and establish a Sino-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue mechanism. In November 2009, President Obama paid a successful visit to China, the first time that a sitting US President paid an official visit to China in his first year in office. In January 2011,President Hu Jintao paid a state visit to the US, and the two national leaders reached an important consensus on building a cooperative partnership based on mutual respect and mutual benefit, thus setting new coordinates for the bilateral relations.

Forty years of Sino-US relations has witnessed both cooperation and tension, both success and setbacks, and both high and low tides, but the general direction of the bilateral relationship has never changed. Looking back at history, we can gain some useful insights.

First, given structural differences between China and the United States, it would be inevitable to see disagreement, contradictions,and even tensions between the two countries. But shared major common interests serve as the fundamental driving force for the continuation and development of the bilateral relations. Historical experience has proven that mutually beneficial cooperation is the most solid bond to tie the two countries together.

Second, as independent, sovereign powers, neither China nor the United States brooks interference in its internal affairs, and no one should attempt to transform and control the other. The bilateral relations should be in line with the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, mutual non-confrontation, and striving for cooperation. Facts have repeatedly shown that Sino-US cooperation benefits both while strife harms both.

Third, while changes in the world situation affect Sino-US relations, the bilateral ties also shape the world situation. Sino-US ties have never been a simple bilateral relationship: it bears much on the peace, stability and development in the Asia Pacific region and the world at large. Both China and the US need to seriously consider the well-beings of the whole globe.

Fourth, both China and the United States - each with its own attributes and characteristics - have their respective core interests and major concerns. It is of critical importance to seek the best convergence and continuous expansion of their common interests. And given the existence of differences between the two countries, it is equally important for the stable and healthy development of the bilateral relations to fully understand and properly handle differences, and actively manage and control major discrepancies between the two sides.

II.A Comprehensive and Sober Assessment of the Current Sino-US Relationship

Since the beginning of the 21st century, major decisive factors that affect Sino-US relations have continued to change, but two major trends remain all the more important.

First, the world pattern is undergoing tremendous development, changes and adjustments. The continuous post-Cold War globalization has brought the world together, with an unprecedented degree of close contacts, convergence of interests,shared security and insecurity, and interdependence, allowing narrowing space for“zero-sum games”. Many of the threats endangering human security and survival have become global issues which no country can cope with alone and there is need for cooperation among the international community. Traditional power politics and hegemonism are facing widespread opposition and resistance by the international community, and the world order calls for new arrangements and new ways of thinking. The pursuit of peace, development and cooperation has become an aspiration of all countries.

Second, the balance of power in the world is moving towards more equilibrium. The collective rise of the developing countries helps gradually redraw international political and economic landscape, and they have become a new force that affects transformation of the world pattern. Traditional big powers,though still exhibiting various advantages in strength, are seeing their own power to monopolize and manipulate international affairs significantly weakened. Emerging powers demand that the distribution of power be reformed in global governance so that they can enjoy more equitable rights of participation and a greater say in decision-making.

The most prominent change in this regard has taken place in the balance of power between China and the US. Both the hard and soft power of the US suffered damage due to the“9.11”incident and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The United States was further plagued both at home and abroad by difficulties caused by the financial and economic crisis of 2008, and fell from the peak where it had been a hyperpower since the end of the Cold War. Meanwhile, pursuing a policy of reform and opening up to the outside world and seizing the favorable international opportunities to accelerate its development, China has overtaken France, Germany and Japan successively in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) to become the world’s second largest economy, significantly reducing its gap with the United States.In 2000, China’s GDP was equivalent to about 12 percent of the US GDP, whereas in 2010 that ratio rose to 40%.

The rising and falling aggregate power of China and the United States as well as their increasing and decreasing international influence inevitably adds new meaning to their bilateral relations.The Obama administration vigorously adjusted American strategy by substantially increasing strategic input in the Asia-Pacific region while contracting strategically around the world in an attempt to create a so-called US-led Trans-Pacific framework.The six key lines of action of the US“forward-deployed diplomacy”were meant, to a large extent, to balance and hedge against China, and immediately invited a variety of comments and responses from the international community. Some Asia-Pacific countries, with different purposes and mentality, are supporting American moves to varying degrees while some Western media are hyping“Sino-US conflicts”and even making presumptuous claim that China and the United States have engaged in a“Cold War”, causing concerns and anxieties among the Chinese and American people about the bilateral relations. It is therefore of realistic and long-term significance to have a comprehensive and objective evaluation of Sino-US relations in order to maintain a favorable atmosphere and environment for the development of bilateral relations as well as the overall stability and cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region.

1. Are Sino-US relations moving toward deterioration?

To say that“Sino-US relations are deteriorating”is quite popular nowadays. The current atmosphere of the Sino-US relationship is indeed not as good as in the first days of the Obama administration. However, the current Sino-US relationship can still be categorized as in a favorable stage of development if viewed from a perspective of 40 years of history in Sino-US relations.

First, the frequency and breadth of China-US high-level exchanges are unprecedented. The heads of state of the two countries met 11 times in three years. Bilateral high-level visits are frequent. The two countries have put in place 60 plus bilateral mechanisms of dialogue and consultation, covering diplomatic, economic and trade, finance, energy, environment,law enforcement, people-to-people, cultural and security fields.The China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue and the Highlevel Consultation on People-to-People Exchanges, in particular,have played an important role in strengthening communication,enhancing mutual understanding and promoting substantive cooperation between the two countries.

Second, both countries have relatively clear strategic cognizance of the bilateral relations. Building a mutually beneficial and winwin partnership is an important consensus of the two sides.Both countries view their relationship as one of the world’s most important bilateral ties and place it in an important position in their respective foreign strategies. China believes that the United States’leading position in the world and its presence in the Asia-Pacific region were formed over the course of history, and China respects this fact and welcomes the US to contribute, as an Asia-Pacific nation, to peace, stability and prosperity of the region.The United States said that it welcomes China’s peaceful rise and is of the view that a strong, prosperous and stable China is conducive to the prosperity and stability of the Asia-Pacific region and the world. And the US has repeatedly stated that it has no intention to contain China.

Third, China-US cooperation in all fields has continued to expand and deepen, and substantial results have been achieved in a mutually beneficial and win-win approach. Economic and trade cooperation between the two countries is a typical example: The bilateral trade amounted to only $2.4 billion in 1979 but reached$446.64 billion in 2011, an increase of 180 times; the trade volume exceeded $100 billion, $200 billion and $300 billion in 2003,2005 and 2007 successively, registering a strong momentum of growth; China and the United States now are each other’s second largest trading partner; as of the end of 2011, the US investment projects in China accumulated to 61,068, with $162.3 billion of total contractual foreign capital and $67.59 billion of actual investment. China’s investment in the US has also increased, with$6 billion of non-financial direct investment in total by the end of 2011. (Note: All figures according to Chinese statistics)

Fourth, there are increasingly closer bilateral cultural and people-to-people exchanges with friendly sentiments deepened between the two peoples, thus forming a good foundation of public opinion for the bilateral relations. For example, there are now about 150 thousand Chinese students in the United States,and President Obama said that efforts would be made so that American students would reach 100 thousand in China.

Fifth, Sino-US consultations and cooperation continue to deepen on international affairs, and mechanisms including the Consultation on Asia-Pacific security have been established. The two countries engage in active cooperation to jointly cope with various global issues and have also maintained communication and coordination in dealing with major international and regional issues.

Of course, there are many negative factors in Sino-US relations,including divergences caused by the inherent differences between the two countries, historical disputes outstanding for a long time, and new problems arising from a changing situation.These negative factors lead to all sorts of troubles from time to time, a“conventional”phenomenon in the bilateral relations. At a time when the relative strength of the two countries changes,the“fermentation”of some negative factors might result in more frequent, severe disturbances that will impact on the normal development of bilateral relations. Particularly during the US presidential election, the ruling and opposition parties are used to turning China into a scapegoat in their political struggles and engage in a race to find all kinds of excuses to appear tough against China so as to win votes.

“Dual nature”has always been a distinctive feature of Sino-US relations with the positive and negative aspects of the bilateral relationship balancing against each other, resulting in fluctuations in the bilateral relations for a period of time.Abnormal phenomenon in Sino-US relations in recent years have been a reflection of this“dual nature”. It takes a strategic and long-term vision to understand Sino-US relations, and conclusions shall not be rushed based on just one incident or one-time occurrence. Generally speaking, positive factors still dominate Sino-US relations and the current trend in the bilateral relationship is not in deterioration.

2. Strategic trust deficit or mutual strategic distrust between the two countries

Mutual strategic trust is a core issue bearing on the long-term healthy and stable development of Sino-US relations. Currently there is an overall lack of Sino-US strategic trust or a serious deficit in strategic trust, and there even exists strategic distrust in security and some other fields as reflected in a lack of trust in each other’s strategic intentions and development direction. The US side has become concerned by the rapid rise of China, fearing that China will challenge or even replace the so-called“world leadership”status of the US. With the balance of power between the two countries tilting toward China, anxiety is growing on the part of the US which is taking various measures to“hedge”against China. China is worried that the United States might be trying to contain China’s peaceful development and take China as the main“competitor”or“enemy”, leading to confrontation between the two countries and hindering the rise of China.

China’s doubts are by no means groundless. Historically,China has been subjected to US aggression and bullying, and the new China repeatedly faced blockade by the United States.After the improvement of relations between the two countries,the United States has continued to look for an excuse from time to time to pressure China, and even repeatedly impose sanctions on China, and the US has yet to lift the arms embargo against China. Over the years, American-made absurd arguments have been prevalent, such as“China is collapsing”,“China is a threat”,“China is not shouldering responsibility”, and“China’s getting tough”. All these arguments have made it difficult for the Chinese people to get truly assured of US strategic intentions.US leaders have repeatedly said that the US has“no intention to contain China,”but the gap between the words and deeds is not acceptable to the Chinese people. China can understand American fanfare of adjusting its Asia-Pacific policy, but remains concerned and vigilant as to American moves that are clearly aimed at China.

American misgivings about China arise from its old way of thinking and ideas. Firstly, a Cold War mentality. There are forces in the US still stubbornly clinging to the Cold War thinking. They insist on dividing countries into different categories according to the similarities and differences of social systems and ideologies and always regard China as an“alien”country. They exhibit deep-seated hostility towards China and treat China as a threat no matter when China is weak or strong. Secondly, a hegemonic thinking. For a long time, some Americans have indulged themselves in the role of the US as a“world leader”, and viewed China’s rise with hostility. They are worried that China might challenge or even replace American“hegemony”and suspect that every move by China might represent an intention to challenge the United States. Thirdly, a calculation of interests. All countries defend their own interests, but in so doing they should also consider and take into account the interests of other countries so that all countries can benefit. The United States is accustomed to placing its own interests above those of other countries and does not respect or even often damages the interests of other countries in order to achieve its self-interest. Some people blame China for the economic difficulties faced by the US in recent years.

Those old ideas and lines of thinking have a relatively solid social foundation in the United States. In face of China’s rapid rise, some people in the US succumb to the traditional logic that“big powers are bound to seek hegemony,”and have become especially“sensitive”to the reasonable increase of China’s defense capabilities. They fabricated a rumor that China would like to“squeeze the US out of the Pacific region”, and as a matter of fact, they are trying to find excuses for military planning and deployment in the Asia-Pacific region.

More than 40 years of the development of Sino-US relations has shown that China and the United States have achieved a certain degree of strategic mutual trust. Two big powers with strategic distrust could not have achieved the breadth and depth of the current Sino-US cooperation in all fields, nor could they have realized the extent of the convergence of interests and interdependency between China and the US. However, the serious lack of strategic mutual trust is also a reality. The current lack of strategic mutual trust can be traced to both countries,but the United States bears the primary responsibility. Chinese and American personages from all walks of life have begun to realize that lack of strategic trust constitutes major fetters on the further development of bilateral relations and called for further enhancing strategic mutual trust. To achieve this goal,joint efforts are required. Effective measures should be taken to increase mutual trust and decrease suspicion. The United States should take a more proactive approach and turn its commitments into specific actions.

Sino-US relations are both important and complex. Neither the importance nor complexity of the relationship should be overlooked; otherwise confusion may occur among all the noises.Only a comprehensive and historical analysis of Sino-US relations can lead to an accurate grasp of the general trend and direction of the bilateral relationship so that both confidence and vigilance can be maintained while promoting cooperation between the two countries.

III.The Development of a New Type of Relationship between Major Powers Is the Only Correct Choice for China and the United States

The United States is the world’s largest developed country while China is the world’s largest developing country, and the total GDP of the two countries accounts for about one-third of the world’s total and their total import and export in goods accounts for about 40% of the world’s total. As the biggest and the second biggest economies in the world respectively, China and the United States have the necessary conditions to explore the potential for cooperation, expand areas of cooperation and raise the level of cooperation, so as to drive the development of bilateral economic,financial and technology to a higher level. At the same time, as two major engines of the world economy, China and the United States have the responsibility to promote the steady growth of world economy and the development of international cooperation.And as two major influential powers on the east and west coasts of the Pacific and two permanent members of the UN Security Council, China and the United States play an important role in international affairs. Both countries can and should contribute to the maintenance of peace and stability in the world and in the Asia-Pacific region in particular and to dealing with global challenges. President Obama had a point when he declared that“the relationship between the United States and China will shape the 21st century”.

Sino-US relations are developing to a new historical period, with both opportunities and challenges on the increase. The future development of Sino-US relations faces the following three options:

First, the two countries are unable to shake off the traditional pattern of great power rivalry. Malignant development of Sino-US competition leads to confrontation and even military conflict, and the cold war between them evolves into a hot war from which both will inevitably suffer, thus a huge disaster for peace and development of the Asia-Pacific region and the world at large.

Second, the basic framework of both cooperation and competition between the two countries continues, the overall situation of mutually beneficial cooperation is maintained, and common ground is sought while differences are properly handled. In so doing, major ups and downs are avoided in Sino-US relations. In essence, this is still America’s longstanding approach towards relations with China: congagement (engagement plus containment). This state of Sino-US relations will inevitably be risk-prone, but a relatively stable course of development of the relations in the past 20 years shows that this mode will last a long time.

Third, under the new historical conditions, China and the United States, through innovative thinking, work together to forge a new type of relationship between big powers featuring mutual respect,equality, mutual trust, and win-win cooperation.

With profound changes taking place in the world and in both China and the United States, the two sides are seriously thinking about the future of the bilateral relations. During President Hu Jintao’s visit to the United States upon the invitation of President Obama last year, the two leaders discussed the question of‘breaking the traditional concept of inevitable great power rivalry”.During his visit to the US this year, Vice President Xi Jinping also talked about this issue with the US side on many occasions.During her speech, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton held that the two countries must find“a new answer to the ancient question of what happens when an established power and a rising power meet”. At the Opening Session of the Fourth Round of the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Beijing in May this year,President Hu Jintao delivered a speech titled Promote Win-Win Cooperation and Build a New Type of Relations Between Major Countries and offered a comprehensive answer to the above question by elaborating on a five-point vision: creative thinking,mutual trust, equality and mutual understanding, working actively, and nourishing friendship.

Of the three options, the first may lead to disastrous consequences beyond imagination, the second will make it increasingly difficult for the bilateral relationship to adapt to the changing situation, and the third remains the only correct choice. Obviously,both China and the US have a deep understanding of the options,and have started to think seriously about this issue. If the two countries can reach a consensus on this issue and gradually turn it into practice, Sino-US relations will enjoy better and broader prospects of development and it will also be of benefit to the future development of the world. Good wishes should be followed by practical deeds.