济南：人口涌入的隐形强者，这座城果然值得老舍的爱

石登江

提到济南，你可能想到老舍笔下千佛山、趵突泉的冬日；提到济南，你可能想到琼瑶剧里“大明湖畔的夏雨荷”，那段温情故事的开端；提到济南，你可能想到孔孟，想到齐鲁，想到瑞蚨祥和不断壮大的民族工业。但你可能没有想到，济南是首座全面放开落户限制的副省级城市。

南方周末研究院近日发布的《57城市民引力榜2023》上，济南成为领跑全国的隐形强者。两项指标将济南推向榜首：十年常住人口增速和落户自由指数。

这里有意外因素，2019年济南因莱芜划入增加近百万常住人口。不过即便剔除该因素，济南也在前十之列。通过行政规划调整扩张人口规模的，并非只有济南——杭州、西安、成都、合肥、长春、昆明、金华等城市，均有此类情况。

上述榜单引入十年常住人口数据、落户自由指数，更侧重衡量一座城市对流动人口的友好度，以及人们在一座城市定居的难易程度。

2021年，国家卫生健康委流动人口服务中心发布《中国城市流动人口社会融合评估报告》。这本267页的报告显示，济南社会融合综合排名第一。

济南不是一座引人注目的城市，但是“多维”的济南依旧值得关注。从老舍写下《济南的冬天》到如今，济南正在迎来发展的春天。

济南的冬天

济南是一座什么样的城市，似乎很难清晰地描述。

“它背靠省会的背景，占据了山东第二城市的交椅，但却尴尬地活在人们怀疑的目光中。”有学者这样形容济南。

质朴，亲切的“质朴感”可能是大多数人对济南的印象。一座北方城市却有着南方城市温婉的气质。“孔孟之乡”的文化底色，名泉之都的澄澈气质，古色古香的传统建筑，尊师重教、内敛沉稳，传统的中国形象完善地保存在这座城市。

质朴，但是过于质朴，是济南倍受怀疑的原因。济南的质朴，最直观的体现是，作为省会城市，济南的学校、企业、医院等机构名称大多用山东而非济南冠名。

济南43所本专科院校中，济南冠名的本科院校只有济南大学一所，专科院校也仅有4所。与之相比，在西安、武汉、成都等城市中，以城市冠名的高校，均在半数以上。此外，济南的三甲医院也多以山东而非济南冠名。

一座质朴的城市，首先将自己名字隐蔽在了更大格局之下。

质朴，但是过于质朴，使这座城市在发展中的脚步更稳健。27座省会城市2022年经济首位度排名中，济南排在最后。

“发挥省城优势，发展省会经济”在2008年被写入济南市政府工作报告中。

“地市合并”一般认为是强省会的重要方式，莱芜正式纳入济南的管辖直至2019年才成为现实。在此之前，济南的经济发展不仅一直落后于青岛，甚至GDP也曾落后于烟台。

华东师范大学中国行政区划研究院首席专家林拓，参与过此次行政区划调整的论证。他指出，从国家战略层面，济南是京津冀和长三角之间唯一的省会城市，是两个区域很重要的衔接点，从山东层面看，济南位于偏西北，其对东南区域的带动能力不足。而莱芜恰好位于中间，调整以后，省会的辐射作用可以大幅提升。

2023年，淄博出圈，“五一”期间住宿预订量较2019年上涨865%。与此同时，山东省内的“网红城市”迎来旅游狂欢。潍坊游客从2019年的183.61万人提高至257.14万人，增长40%；烟台游客达到188.23万人次，与2019年同期相比增长211%。

相比之下，济南的增势稍有逊色。济南的22家旅游景区共接待262.6万人次，相较于2019年纳入监测的17家景区，游客增速仅为23.7%。

济南很快做出了调整。携程数据显示，济南是2023年十一假期十大周边热门目的地城市之一，旅游订单量同比2022年增长295%，其中跨省订单占比近五成，跨省游订单量同比增长338%。

质朴，但是过于质朴，使济南这座城市还未充分发挥自身的潜力。

济南并不缺乏旅游资源，而是缺乏包装和隆重推出。鹊华桥、大明湖、千佛山、历下亭、铁公祠、“四大名泉”，还有“美人绝调”的明湖居，无一不是济南的历史文化遗产。

济南是“孔孟文化”保存最为完善的地方，到了济南，保安大叔都会喊你一声“老师儿”。不仅如此，济南还出了李清照和辛弃疾，一巾帼一须眉，一婉约一豪放，两个顶级词人。李清照纪念堂在济南城西趵突泉公园内，辛稼軒纪念祠则在大明湖南岸偏西侧。

“争渡，争渡，惊起一滩鸥鹭。”济南何时才能在争渡中，再度惊起国人内心的波澜？2023年3月，济南大明湖畔的超然楼亮灯瞬间掀起热论，引来众多游客拍照打卡。人们期待着济南更多的瞬间与记忆点。

“一个老城，有山有水，全在天底下晒着阳光，暖和安适地睡着，只等春风来把它们唤醒，这是不是个理想的境界？”这是老舍写在《济南的冬天》中的一段话。

我们期待着的，济南发展的春天是否已经到来？

济南的春天

2024年年初，济南经济成绩单公布。2023年济南市GDP为12757.4亿元，比上年增长6.1%，高于5.2%的全国平均增速。

济南经济的高速增长，与工业发展息息相关。2023年，济南制造业增加值增长13.8%。其中，汽车制造业同比增长133.3%；光伏电池、集成电路圆片产品产量，分别增长529.8%、111.2%。

令人惊喜的不仅是济南制造业的高速发展，更在“空天经济”发展的先机。2023年9月，国内首所空天信息大学获批，正式在济南落地筹建。该校的建设还将带动11家国家重点实验室和3家省实验室的发展。

Winter in Jinan

What kind of city is Jinan？ Most people would say it has a friendly rustic look.

The most obvious evidence of this is that， as the capital of Shandong province， most of the names of schools， companies， hospitals and other organizations in Jinan start with Shandong rather than Jinan.

The simplicity and plainness in the city character makes Jinan was rather modest for development.

"Releasing the advantages and developing economy of the provincial city" was included in the Jinan Municipal Government Work Report 2008. In 2019， Laiwu became a district of Jinan. According to Lin Tuo， chief expert of Research Center for China Administrative Division at East China Normal University， From a national strategic perspective， Jinan is the only provincial capital between the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the Yangtze River Delta， and is a very important link between the two regions. From Shandongs point of view， Jinan is in the northwest and its radiation capacity to the south-east is insufficient. Since Laiwu is centrally located， the provincial capitals radiation role can be greatly improved after adjustment.

The simplicity and plainness in the city character has restrained Jinan to realize its full potential.

Not lacking tourism resources， Jinan should enhance branding and popularization. With a rich historical and cultural heritage， Jinan is famous for its two iconic local poets， Li Qingzhao and Xin Qiji. The lighting moment of Chaoran Pavilion， a landmark of Daming Lake Park in Jinan， went viral on the internet， attracting a large number of visitors to see it on the spot and take photos of the moment of beauty. People are hoping for more surprises in Jinan.

“An ancient town， with mountains and lakes， dozing in the sunlight， warm and comfortable， waiting for the spring breezes to blow it awake. Doesnt that sound idyllic.” Lao She said in “Winter in Jinan”. We wonder if the spring of development has arrived in Jinan？

Spring in Jinan

The gross domestic product （GDP） of Jinan totaled 1，275.74 billion yuan in 2023， up 6.1 per cent year on year， higher than the national average growth rate of 5.2 per cent.

Jinans rapid economic growth has been closely linked to industrial development. The manufacturing value added grew by 13.8 per cent in 2023， with the aerospace industry being a leading contributor. In September 2023， the Aerospace Information University， the first of its kind in China， was officially approved and began construction in Jinan， which is conducive to the development of 11 national key laboratories and 3 provincial laboratories.

Jinan reached a high point on March 8， 2024 when the Jinan Urban Circle Development Plan （2024-2030） was announced. The plan clearly proposed that its vital to improve the innovation， economic， service， social and environmental functions of the central city of Jinan， and to promote the overall improvement of regional economic efficiency.

It was followed by some news that was even more exciting to us. On December 8， 2023， the entire JinanZhengzhou high-speed railway， a key section to the west of Jinans high-speed railway network in a shape of Mi character， was inaugurated.

The industry is a magnet for talent. In 2023， 160，000 new young talents were added to Jinan， and the total number of talents exceeded 2.78 million， accounting for 29.5% of the resident population. In 2023， there were 691，100 full-time students in Jinan.

Jinan was higher than most provincial capitals such as Zhengzhou， Xian and Nanchang in terms of per capita disposable income in 2022. The price-to-income ratio and rent-to-income ratio in the 2023 List of Comfortable Life in 57 Cities were 13.9 and 0.28 respectively， which was not only much lower than that of firsttier cities， but also lower than that of provincial capitals such as Xian， Nanjing and Zhengzhou. Clearly， Jinan is an inexpensive city for migrants.

Has spring arrived in Jinan？ The answer is obvious from the figures in economic development and population growth. However， Jinan never develops only in the spring， as it also produces fruitful results in the summer and autumn.