中国开放的大门只会越开越大

编者按:

如何理解“双循环”？“双循环”需要改革的关键点是什么？“双循环”的投资机会在哪里？“十四五”时期的发展环境如何？以什么思路发展？有哪些任务和举措？如何开顶风船，转危为机，努力实现更高质量的发展……

带着这些问题，我们与17位顶级经济学家进行了深入交流。

Editor’s note

What is dual circulation? What are the key points to be reformed for it? What investment opportunities will it bring? What will be the development environment during the 14th Five-Year Plan? What will be the development ideas? What will be tasks and initiatives? How do we overcome difficulties,turn crises into opportunities,and strive to achieve higher quality development? …

With the aforementioned questions,we conducted a deep discussion with 17 top economists.

精品书摘未完待续

Excerpts （to be continued）

其实内循环，或者说内需对经济增长的贡献和驱动力，在过去的十几年一直是上升的。一个最典型的例子就是中国的对外贸易依存度（外贸的出口加上外贸的进口，除以GDP）是逐年下降的。在全球金融危机以前，中国的对外贸易依存度高达65%，而现在大概是31.4%。在中国改革开放之初，包括在21世纪加入WTO初期时，中国利用外贸拉动经济增长，效果显著。但是随着规模的增加，作为一个大型经济体，依靠出口拉动经济增长是不可持续的。现在很多小型经济体是在走这个路子，这种方式是不可持续的。因为全球外贸的蛋糕就那么大，快马加鞭，会增加国际贸易摩擦。

另外，是有关中国自身产业的安全、经济的安全。中国想要融入全球分工体系之中，但是若自身的创新能力不强，会在关键环节遭遇“卡脖子”，一些关键的环节可能受制于人。所以中国还是要以内循环为主，这个是基于当前国际形势的变化和自身内在的要求，作出的重大调整。这也体现了过去经济发展的结构性变化趋势——内需对经济的贡献越来越大，而且展望未来，无论是消费需求还是投资需求都有很大的发展潜力。现在中国经济规模突破100万亿元，人均GDP突破1万美元，但是相对发达经济体来说，中国仍然只有别国的 1/4。中国14亿人口当中，有6亿人每个月的收入不到1000元，有10亿人现在还没有坐过飞机，所以未来经济的发展潜力还是很大的。因此中国也是要通过供给侧的结构性改革，提升供给的质量、服务的质量来满足老百姓对高质量生活的需求。中国要利用这样一个机会来发展自身的经济。

发展内需不是说要搞闭关锁国。中国还是要利用两个市场两种资源不遗余力地扩大开放。这两年北京的服贸会、广州的广交会、上海的进博会，三足鼎立，都释放出一个积极的信号：中国开放的大门只会越开越大。

Actually,internal circulation,or domestic demand,has played an ever greater role in boosting national economic growth in the past over a decade. The best proof is the yearby-year decrease in China’s foreign trade degree of dependence （FTD,i.e. the sum of exports and imports divided by GDP）. Before the global financial crisis broke out,China’s FTD was up to 65%,but now has dropped to approximately 31.4%. True enough,in the first decades after China launched the reform and opening-up policy,especially after China’s participation in the WTO in the 21st century,remarkable achievements were made by China in driving economic growth through foreign trade. But as China’s GDP rises,developing economy by relying on export trade has become unsustainable for such a large country as China. Though many small economies today are still growing this way,this cannot change its unsustainable nature a bit. That’s because the size of the “global foreign trade” cake is stable in a period and more haste could backfire — Trade friction between worldwide countries may escalate.

Another reason why the way is not sustainable is that it cannot keep China’s industry and economy in healthy shape. To get integrated into the international division of labor,China must become innovative enough. Otherwise,it may get stuck in key links or even have to rely on others in some ones. In this connection,China should focus on internal circulation. It’s a major adjustment given current international and domestic situations. It also reflects the structural change trend of China’s economic growth in the past years — Domestic demand will contribute more and more to economic growth. Moreover,both domestic consumption and investment demands are expected to embrace huge development potential in the coming future. In 2020,China’s GDP exceeded the 100-trillion-yuan threshold. But in terms of per capita GDP,China still lags behind that of developed economies with a figure of about USD 10,000,which is only 1/4 of the advanced levels. Besides,of China’s 1.4 billion people,600 million earn less than 1,000 yuan a month,and 1 billion have never taken a plane. It can be seen that there is still great potential in China for future economic growth. Therefore,it’s necessary for China to pursue supplyside structural reform and improve the quality of supply and service to satisfy people’s demand for a high-quality life. Meanwhile,it also presents China with a good opportunity to boost economic growth.

But focusing on domestic demand is not to close the door. Instead,China will make better use of both international and domestic markets and resources to open wider. In the past two years,China International Fair for Trade in Services,China Import and Export Fair,and China International Import Expo were held in China’s Beijing,Guangzhou and Shanghai respectively. And all of them have sent the same positive signal:China will open wider and wider.

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