从中国制造，到全球供应与万维互联

于蔓

8月，《經济学人》发表专题报道《全球供应链》之三——“爱着中国，离开中国”。在经过几十年的延伸之后，全球供应链正在收缩。本文作者对该文进行了点评。

原文概述：

从1990年开始的全球化繁荣时代，托马斯·弗里德曼等作家传播的一种思想成了真理：世界变得扁平了。该观点认为：国界，在采购和制造方面几乎无关紧要。

全球化正在变成区域化。麦肯锡全球研究院（MGI）分析发现，自全球遭遇金融危机以来，它研究的17个大型行业中有16个全球价值链（GVC）一直处于收缩状态。从2007年到2017年，贸易绝对值继续增长，但在此期间，同一批价值链的出口从总产出的28.1%下降到22.5%。贸易强度下降幅度最大的全球价值链是那些交易量最大且复杂的，如服装、汽车和电子产品。正如MGI的苏珊·伦德（Susan Lund）所解释的：“更多的生产正在靠近主要的消费市场。”

中国作为世界工厂的角色开始消退，但令人惊讶的是，这可能并未敲响大陆制造业的丧钟。凭借其熟练的劳动力和优良的基础设施，中国仍然是一个优秀的制造场所，它在众多领域仍保持优势。此外，中国中产阶级的崛起让许多公司将生产转向服务于当地市场。因此，跨国公司显然正在重新考虑西方市场旧的线性采购模式，但未来的道路尚不清楚。不同的行业会做出不同的选择。

英文原版：

（有删减）

Loving China， leaving China

A look at where clothes， cars and computers are made reveals differing patterns of supply fragmentation.

Globalisation is becoming regionalisation. Analysis by MGI finds that the global value chains （GVCs） in 16 of 17 big industries it studied have been contracting since the global financial crisis. Trade continued to grow in absolute terms from 2007 to 2017， but during that period exports in those same value chains declined from 28.1% to 22.5% of gross output. The biggest declines in trade intensity were observed in the most heavily traded and complex GVCs， such as those in clothing， cars and electronics. As MGIs Susan Lund explains， more production is happening in proximity to major consumer markets.

Chinas role as the worlds workshop is starting to fade， but surprisingly this may not sound the death knell for mainland manufacturing. Thanks to its skilled labour force and excellent infrastructure， China remains an outstanding place to make things， hence its continued strength in numerous sectors. Also， the rise of the Chinese middle class has led many firms to redirect production to serve the local market. So MNCs are clearly rethinking the old linear sourcing model for Western markets， but the path forward is unclear. Different industries will make different choices.

The clothing sector is globally footloose； the car industry is coalescing around regional hubs； and the electronics business remains rooted in China （though Mr Trumps attack on Huawei， its technology champion， will affect this）.

Big parts of the clothing and footwear business involve labour-intensive tasks such as stitching， so cost-conscious bosses are always chasing low-cost markets. Many long ago left the mainland， where wages have soared， for SouthEast Asia and Bangladesh. Nike and Adidas make more training shoes in Vietnam than China.

Unlike those cut-rate competitors， say experts， Chinese factories have the specialised machinery and experienced operators that are needed to make seamless fabrics and other higher-value textiles.

Chinas share in big clothes-importing markets such as Japan and Europe has declined since 2010 as they have been buying cheaper clothes made in South-East Asia instead. However， Chinas share in every big textileimport market in Asia has soared because many of those workshops still bought fabrics from the mainland. Its export share into Vietnam， for example， more than doubled to 5o% from 2005 to 2017. The upshot is that although Chinas oncedominant role in this industry has diminished， it remains strong in important niches.

Good night， Shanghai

Car firms have invested heavily to turn Mexico into an export base. The value of its automobile exports has more than doubled since 2010， approaching $50bn last year. The main reasons are not the nearly-defunct North American Free Trade Agreement or lower labour costs， but rather Mexicos four dozen free-trade agreements with other countries which allow it to export to almost half the works market for new cars tariff-free. Carmakers have rejigged supply lines to take advantage. Mexicos car exports to Germany have nearly 40% German components by value， while those crossing its northern border have over 70% American content.

Mr Trumps tariffs on China have pushed Big Autos supply chains to become even more regional. "Were finally ready to leave China." says a senior supply-chain executive at a global car maker. His firm is looking seriously at shifting its sourcing for global market from China to India， but finds Indian vendors "unreliable". It thought about dividing between India and Mexico， but saw that its supply base would lose economies of scale. The winner will be Mexico， he savs.

Innovation nation

Half the worlds electronics-manufacturing capacity is based on the mainland. Its strengths go beyond sheer scale to diversity and sophistication of products. The pace of hardware innovation in Chinas Pearl river delta is unmatched even in Silicon Valley. So， too， is its unique blend of scale and agility. This is why most of the worlds technology giants make their kit in China.

Rising costs led some electronics firms to consider moving out a few years ago. Most notably， Samsung has built a huge smartphonemanufacturing complex in Vietnam.Many firms are discovering that leaving China is not so easy. George Yeo of Kerry Logistics， which has lorries and men all over Asia， has noticed an uptick in clients investing in South-East Asia. Vietnam and Cambodia are the biggest beneficiaries， he reports. But labour productivity is a big problem across the region and infrastructure can be ropey. Much of the investment he sees is going into labour-intensive industries like textiles. In electronics， Mr Yeo thinks the exodus is limited to low-end kit. “Thinks to automation and high value-add， Shenzhen is still king.”

Scrutiny of these three sectors suggests a messy path forward from globalisation. Making this challenge more acute， MNC bosses are now faced with a double threat. Not only must they make supply chains shorter， they must make them faster.

点评正文：

在经济全球化之后，走出中国，全球化挑战变得更加激烈，新的挑战是万维互联的新世界，不仅要让供应链更短，还要更快。新的全球供应链格局下，中国将如何树立新的中国影响力？

世界开始扁平化

目前超过50%的地球人口都已联网，这距离互联网在西方国家首先流行起来的时间不过短短25年。中国互联网用户数仍在快速增长，全球新用户大多来自新兴市场，以及经济较为贫困落后的地区。不论是产业互联网还是价值互联网，这都意味着互联网革命的后半段已经开始，世界开始变得扁平化。

互联网后半段的发展，将为国际化企业带来巨大的流量与客户群，也同时带来全球供应链新的格局与新的挑战。随着科技发展与经济效率提升，不仅需要让供应链变得更短，还要更快。

互联网信息技术革命让全球的通信与信息传输变得便捷、廉价又可靠，数字经济技术革命即将为全球价值传输效率的提升提供新的可能性。自亚洲走进与连接世界经济以来，为全球化经济的高效发展提供了丰富且低廉的劳动力，科技进展与制造联动，推动了全球供应链的衍化与革新。

今年6月，国际社交媒体巨头Facebook推出Libra，这一举措更是进一步推动了全世界信息互联到价值互联的演进。马克·扎克伯格曾说他的梦想就是将世界连接在一起，这不仅是扎克伯格的理想，也是世界全球化进程不可逆的趋势。Facebook拥有全球庞大的用户群以及社交行为数据，再加之Libra所将带来的金融行为数据，未来可能形成全球最完整的海量用户数据，社交网络上的每一个节点也将被更深刻地连接起来。

当互联网世界的连接传播以及运转协作效率变得越来越高，将会带来全球供应链的优胜劣汰，不断缩短与加速其进程。

中国制造不仅有规模

众所周知，世界上大多数科技公司与技术巨头都在中国生产设备以及设立公司，即使是代表世界制造水准的德国，以及科技之都硅谷，都无法比拟中国珠三角等地区在硬件方面的创新速度。

中国制造业的崛起结合西方经济与技术的发展，给全球化经济格局带来了深远影响。顺势而为的中国是世界诸多科技巨头的“制造基地”，尽管成本上升导致一些科技公司想从中国迁出另辟蹊径，但似乎离开中国并没有那么容易。

当前东南亚地区的投资数据正在不断飙升，但基础设施的落后以及劳动生产率的低下仍然是巨大的问题与阻碍。因此，在未来许多年内，中国制造的国际位置仍将不可取代，而新的挑战将是，全球供應链体系下的中国，如何部署新的供应链战略为世界新经济秩序的建立带来中国影响力。

全球供应链背景下的中国

一个国家或产业在全球经济体中的地位，会因该国的资源优势以及进步速度而迅速变化。比如，当中国作为世界科技巨头的制造基地时，首先发挥了劳动密集型产业上的资源优势。而全球的供应链体系需要新陈代谢，不断地提升运转协作效率，以加剧全球化经济进程。那么中国面临的挑战就是，未来在全球经济体中的位置应如何做出相应的改变。

目前的世界工厂已然从以中国为核心的整个东南亚地区所形成的制造业集群，变成了新的结合互联网技术的规模供应网络。虽然中国在整个供应链网络中的压倒性优势使中国始终为核心，但劳动力与成本价格上行，自然会促使许多制造业企业向东南亚地区的转移。某种程度上看，这是一种资源危机，但我们相信中国企业的创新能力，从中国制造到中国创造，世界贸易循环以及经济全球化仍离不开中国影响力。

互联互通的时代正在来临，新的供应链格局正在形成。无论是“一带一路”的国家战略，还是中国科技、金融、互联网企业的技术创新与市场化规模的演进，都预示着中国经济的崛起与转型。在互联网后半段，世界工厂已然不是中国定位，创新国家以及引领新的商业文明将成为新标志。