涓流细语

编辑：贾朋群

“If you look back in time to see when our forecast scale was roughly 30 percent less than today, it was 1980.”

“如果你想时间倒流，感觉一下我们的预报水准较今天大约降低30%，那就回到1980年。”

——针对3月美国政府拍卖5G频段一事，NOAA执行局长Neil Jacobs指出，这一举措将降低30%的预报准确性，相当于40年预报技术进步的幅度。他在美国国会如此向议员们解释拍卖频率与预报的关系。

“The mission is not being designed to police people’s emissions… I think what countries need is a tool and transparency in observations of emissions at city scale and even down to power plant scale. They need information to inform policy decisions.”

“项目的设计并非旨在监督人类的排放……我想各国需要的是一个工具，以及在城市尺度甚或发电厂尺度上排放观测的透明度。他们需要信息来支持决策。”

——近日，欧盟开始谋划发射监测各国二氧化碳排放的卫星阵列。如果这一计划得以实施，将于2025年升空的该卫星观测系统能给出更为详尽的全球排放图，并有望更好地解决国家报告与实际观测的排放量之间存在差距等问题。谈及本项目的意义，负责设计和实施该计划的欧空局地球和排放部负责人Mark Drinkwater如此进行了解释。

“The 2019 Refinement provides an updated and sound scientific basis for supporting the preparation and continuous improvement of national greenhouse gas inventories.”

“2019年修订给出更新和充足的科学基础，以支持国家温室气体清单的准备和持续改进。”

——作为IPCC AR6周期最重要的评估活动之一，联合国更新版温室气体排放指南日前发布。针对这一工作的意义，IPCC专门工作组联合主席Kiyoto Tanabe如是说。

“ESA is happy to include the TRUTHS mission in our package of programme proposals for Space19+. It is a very interesting mission that will bring many benefits to better understand climate change and offer well-calibrated measurements for crossreference with other missions. It is now up to ESA Member States to take up this offer and participate in this exciting programme.”

“ESA很高兴在我们提交给Space19+的一揽子计划建议中包括了TRUTHS。这是一个很有意义的项目，在更好认识气候变化和向其他使命提供校准后观测用于相互比较等方面受益。现在就等ESA成员国认可这个项目并加入这个令人激动的项目之中。”

——欧空局在地球观测方面最新提出T R U T H S（Traceable Radiometry Underpinning Terrestrial- and Helio- Studies，可追踪辐射线测定支持地球和太阳研究）项目建议，并以提交给计划在2019年11月27—28日在西班牙召开的ESA的Space19+（空间19+）部长委员会讨论。ESA的地球观测项目主任Josef Aschbacher如此热情为TRUTHS项目敲边鼓。

“In areas like Europe, C-band is not that popula. But in those areas where you have a lot of rain, satellite networks still very much rely on C-band and if that part of the spectrum were to be allocated to 5G, it would be quite a challenge for the region to adapt.。I see less of a problem with the higher bands because they are typically not very much used or they haven’t been allocated to any defense organizations.”

“在欧洲这样的区域，C波段不是很流行。但是在降水很多的区域，卫星探测网非常依赖于C波段，如果该波段的一部分分配给5G，这些区域适应起来就是很大的挑战。目前更高谱段的问题还不多，这些谱段没有被频繁使用，也还没有分配给任何安全组织。”

——近日因美国拍卖的5G频段与气象卫星使用的频段重复而带来的争执，是否在5G已经开始实施的亚洲也存在？国际媒体报道了韩国技术人员的上述看法，其中C波段是指从4 Gigahertz（GHz）到8 GHz频段。

“We will set ourselves up to essentially crowdsource forecast model development work. We don’t claim the wins. We’re not actively out there saying look how good we did.”

“我们将采取本质上为众包的模式开发工作。我们不宣称胜利。我们并没有热衷于说，看看我们做得有多好。”

——美国NOAA换代预报模式GFS-FV3，在经过漫长的试验运行后即将投入业务化运行，NOAA执行局长Neil Jacobs针对这一事件与媒体进行了交流。就新模式依然没有超过两大竞争对手（欧洲中期预报中心和和英国气象局）的模式，执行局长表示认可，即换代后的模式，在世界上依然位于第三位，但这位曾经在松下公司领导模式开发工作的执行局长认为，低调的FV3也带来了改变的契机。

“It is a disaster for the United States to remove itself voluntarily from the international conversation around global warming pollutant reduction, even for 2 years. We don’t have 2 years to sit on our hands. We don’t have 2 years to fail to lead [on this issue]. Every single month that goes by that we don’t make the decisions necessary to save this planet from existential harm is a month that we get closer to the point of no return [from the impacts of climate change].”

“对美国来说，撤出国际全球变化减少污染条约是一场灾难，即使是刚刚两年。这两年里我们没有参与。这两年里我们丧失了[对这个问题的]领导权。过去的每个月里，我们没能做出挽救出现的伤害这个星球的决策，也就是一步一步接近[气候变化影响的]不可返回点。”

——2017年6月1日，特朗普宣布美国退出气候变化《巴黎协定》。两年后美国各界审视这一决策时，大多表达对这一决定的失望之情。美国参议院Chris Murphy在媒体上公开批评这样的做法，具有很好的代表性。

（from back cover）

Advance Report 2019: Meteorology Making Cities Safer

88 Wang Yanqing, Liu Dunxun, Xu Wenwen/ Reform and Development Practices and Outlook on Shenzhen Meteorology

94 Lan Hongping, Liu Dunxun, Sun Shiyang, Wei Xiaolin, Xu Ting/ The Practice and Prospect of Constructing Precise and Intelligent Forecasting Service System in Shenzhen

100 Chen Yuanzhao, Lan Hongping, Liu Kun/ Recent Development of Nowcasting Techniques in Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau

108 He Yuhua, Liu Donghua, Zhang Lijie, Mao Xia/Development and Outlook of the Meteorological Informatization in Shenzhen

112 Li Lei/ Urban Climate Services for Sustainable Development of Shenzhen Municipality

119 Zhang Li, Li Lei, Shen Jie, Zhang Jie/ The Effect of Industrial Policy on Air Quality Improvement of Shenzhen in Recent 39 Years

124 Jiang Yin, Chen Xunlai, Zhu Jiangshan, Wang Deli, Chen Yuanzhao/ Application of Shenzhen Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast System in Heavy Rainfall of South China

132 Chen Xunlai, Chen Yuanzhao, Zhao Chunyang, Zhang Ke/ Application of Gradient Boost Decision Tree in Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation

138 Zhang Li, Li Lei, Liang Biling, Wang Mingjie, Feng Bingfeng, Chen Linfeng/ Spatial-Temporal Characteristics and Background Circulations of Local PM2.5Pollution Episodes in the Pearl River Delta

144 Jiang Chenglin, Huang Haohui, Chen Wenchao, Zhang Guangyu/ Turbulence Characteristics of the Landing Process of Severe Typhoon Nesat (1117)

149 Zhang Chunsheng, Lu Chao, Zhong Xiaoyong, Gao Ruiquan, Liu Aiming, Gu Ruichang / Preliminary Analysis of Near-Surface Flux Data from Meteorological Gradient Observation Tower in Shenzhen

153 Wang Deli, Kong Fanyou, Wang Hong, Chen Xunlai/Effect of the Dual-Polarization Radar Data Assimilation on Rainfall Simulation of Typhoon Hato

160 Zhang Li, Liang Biling, Li lei/ Ozone Pollution Meteorological Condition Index in Shenzhen and Its Operational Application

166 Chen Shenpeng/ Multi-Year Variation of Precipitation and Rain Island Effect in Shenzhen

171 Lu Xiaoxiong, Li Qinglan, Chen Shenpeng, Zhang Kai,Sun Liqun, Chen Qian, Zhang Lijie/ Temporal and Spatial Precipitation Characteristics in Shenzhen from 2008 to 2017

179 He Lunkai, Sun Liqun, Li Qinglan, Xie Kun, Wang Shuxin,Wang Deli, Xu Qian/ Comparison of Spatial Interpolation Methods for Temperature in Shenzhen

185 Du Yaodong, Duan Hailai, Liu Chang, Luo Xiaoling/Research Advances in Climate Change Impacts on Human Health in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area

190 Cai Ran, Luo Xin, Gao Yan, Du Qijiang, Zhuang Hongbo,Peng Xiaohong, Fu Chunhua/ Induced Current and Charge at the Top of High Buildings During Lightning Return Stroke

195 Yang Yuexin, Guo Hongbo, Qin Zilong, Su Linzhi, Luo xin/ The Lightning Disaster Risk Zoning Based on Multi-Source Data in Shenzhen

199 Wei Xiaolin, Chen Xunlai, Jiang Yin, Li Hui, Mao Xia/ A Novel Crowd Innovation Mechanism for Intelligent Short-Term Heavy Rain Nowcasting

204 Zeng Qingfeng, Gao Ruiquan, Wen Jingmin, Li Lei, Xu Lei, Tang Yang, Lai Xin/ The Management Mode of Urban Unit Microclimate Environment Observation Based on Internet of Things

209 Gao Ruiquan, Zheng Hui, Zhong Xiaoyong, Luo Hongyan, Ma Xiaoxin, Liu Xing, Xia Jianbo/ Realization and Preliminary Application of Intelligent Second-Level Observation at Automatic Weather Station

213 Deng Ping, Zhang Qinghua, Zhang Yulong/ A Parallel I/O Optimization Technique for Improving the Performance of Meteorological Numerical Models

218 Zhang Lijie, Hu Juan, Zhang Kai, Li You, Zheng Hui/Classification and Characteristics of Meteorological Research Achievements in Shenzhen in Recent 10 Years

222 Li Hailong, Cao Mei, Wen Fengjie/ Construction of Intelligent Meteorology Service Model Based on the Behavior of Shenzhen Meteorology Mobile and Internet Users

225 Sun Shiyang, Shen Danna, Dong Hao/ Exploration of Meteorological Forecast Service Model Based on Quality Development

230 Hu Juan, Li You, Zhang Lijie, Zhang Kai, Zheng Hui/Design and Prospect of Online Management Platform for Multi-Approach Meteorological Service Data

234 Wang Shuxin, Chen Yuanzhao, Zhang Shuting/ Acquisition and Application of Social Observation Data Based on Web Crawler Technology

238 Zhai Xiao, Xue Huaxing/ Application of the Monitoring Method of Query Normal Height in Shenzhen Airport

240 Luo Xin, Cai Ran, Zhuang Hongbo, Su Linzhi, Guo Hongbo, Yang Yuexin/ Design and Realization of Lightning Early Warning Service System Based on Urban Comprehensive Observation

243 Guo Hongbo, Zhuang Hongbo, Du Qijiang, Cai Ran,Yang Yuexin/ Thoughts on the Construction of Lightning Protection Safety Management Information System