World Could Run Out of Chocolate by 2050

By Sophie Curtis

Chocolate could soon be a thing of the past, after scientists warned that the cacao plant, from which chocolate is made, could be extinct2extinct不再存在的，绝迹的。within 32 years.

[2] Over half of the world’s chocolate comes from just two countries in West Africa—Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana—where the temperature, rain, and humidity provide the perfect conditions for cacao to thrive.

[3] But the threat of rising temperatures over the next three decades,caused by climate change, is expected to result in a loss of moisture from the ground, which scientists say could upset this delicate balance.

[4] According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a temperature rise of just 2.1 degrees centigrade could spell an end for the chocolate industry worldwide by 2050.

科学家发出了警告，制作巧克力所用的可可植物或将在32年内灭绝，真是这样的话，巧克力很快就会成为历史了。

[2]仅科特迪瓦和加纳两个西非国家，就提供了世界上超过半数的巧克力，因为两地的温度、降水及湿度为可可树创造了绝佳的生长环境。

[3]但由于气候变化，气温在未来30年将持续升高，这会导致土壤水分流失——科学家认为，环境中微妙的平衡关系将因此被打破。

[4]美国国家海洋与大气管理局的研究表明，对全球的巧克力行业而言，气温仅上升2.1摄氏度就可能意味着2050年的灭顶之灾。

[5] Farmers in the region are already looking at moving cacao production areas thousands of feet uphill into mountainous terrain—much of which is currently preserved for wildlife.

[6] But a move of this scale could destroy ecosystems that are already under threat from illegal farming and deforestation3deforestation毁林，滥伐森林。.

[7] Part of the problem, according to Doug Hawkins from London-based research firm Hardman Agribusiness,is that cacao farming methods have not changed for hundreds of years.

[8] “Unlike other tree crops that have benefited from the development of modern, high yielding cultivars4cultivar栽培品种。and crop management techniques to realise their genetic potential, more than 90%of the global cocoa crop is produced by smallholders on subsistence farms with unimproved planting material,” he told Mail Online.

“All the indicators are that we could be looking at a chocolate deficit55 deficit不足。of 100,000 tonnes a year in the next few years.”

[9] Now scientists at the University of California at Berkeley have teamed up with American confectionery6confectionery甜食（糖果、巧克力等）。company Mars, in an attempt to keep chocolate on the menu.

[5]当地农民已开始考虑将可可产区上迁数千英尺，那里的山区现今多为野生动植物保护区。

[6]但如此大举搬迁可能会破坏本已受到非法耕作与乱砍滥伐威胁的生态系统。

[7]在道格·霍金斯看来，这个问题在某种程度上要归因于数百年来一成不变的可可种植方式。道格·霍金斯供职于伦敦一家名为“哈德曼农商企业”的调查公司。

[8]他对英国《每日邮报》说：“其他木本作物得益于现代高产栽培和作物管理技术的发展，作物基因潜能得到充分发挥。与它们不同，全球超过90%的可可作物是由自足型农场的小农户用未经改良的种子种植生产的。”

“所有迹象都表明，今后若干年，我们可能面临每年10万吨的巧克力缺口。”

[9]目前，加利福尼亚大学伯克利分校的科学家已与美国玛氏糖果公司组成科研团队，旨在让巧克力继续留在美食单上。

[10] Using the controversial geneediting technology7gene-editing technology基因编辑技术，指人类对目标基因进行“编辑”，实现对特定DNA片段的修改等。known as CRISPR they are trying to develop a version of the cacao plant capable of surviving—and thriving—in dryer, warmer climates.

[11] CRISPR has received widespread media attention because of its potential to eradicate8eradicate根除，消灭。human diseases and make so-called “designer babies9designer baby设计婴儿，指在出生前就对其基因构成进行了选择的孩子。”.

[12] However, Jennifer Doudna, the UC Berkeley geneticist who invented CRISPR, thinks its most useful effects will be on plants rather than humans.

“Personally, I’d love a tomato plant with fruit that stayed on the vine longer10采用基因编辑技术培育出的番茄挂果时间长，不容易掉落。,” Doudna, who is an avid11avid热衷的，酷爱的。gardener, told Business Insider.

[13] If the team’s work on the cacao plant is successful, it could remove the need for farmers in West Africa to relocate to higher ground, and perhaps even allow cacao to be grown elsewhere in the world.

[10]他们利用备受争议的基因编辑技术，即众所周知的CRISPR，试图研发一种能在更加干燥和温暖的气候条件下存活并生长的可可植物。

[11] CRISPR目前得到媒体的广泛关注，因为该项技术有望根除人类疾病，并培育出所谓“定制婴儿”。

[12]然而，加州大学伯克利分校的遗传学家、CRISPR的发明者珍妮弗·杜德娜认为，此项技术最大的用武之地在植物而非人类。

酷爱园艺的杜德娜对美国《商业内参》表示：“我个人觉得，如果能培育出藤上挂果时间长一些的番茄树，会更有意义。”

[13]如果该团队在可可作物的研发项目上能取得成功，西非的农民就无须将作物迁往更高的地带，而且，可可树或许还可以种植在世界其他地方了。