兰德智库如何应对真相衰落现象

[摘 要] “真相衰落”的现象是由国际知名智库美国兰德公司总裁、首席执行官邁克尔·里奇提出的，该现象指政治生活中越来越不尊重事实和证据的倾向。兰德公司研究了真相衰落的现象，定义并描述了该现象的四种特征：对事实及其数据的分析解读越来越无法达成共识；观点与事实的界限模糊；个人观点和经历数量太多，超过了事实应有的影响；对过去信赖的事实来源产生怀疑。这些现象在美国历史上尽管有先例，但当下，更具有新的成因和表现方式。兰德希望通过他们的研究，激发公众对事实的尊重与重视。

[关键词] 兰德智库；真相衰落；迈克尔·里奇；詹妮弗·卡瓦纳；信任缺失；社交媒体；虚假信息

[中图分类号] C932.4 [文献标识码] A [文章编号] 1002-8129（2018）11-0046-10

Rand President and CEO Michael Rich has been talking about what he sees as an erosion of respect for facts and evidence in political life—a phenomenon he calls “Truth Decay.” He asked RAND political scientist Jennifer Kavanagh to help analyze the issue and lay out a research agenda to better understand Truth Decay's causes and consequences. RAND's editorial team interviewed Rich and Kavanagh to learn more about their work. In this edited interview， they talk about the evolution of their thinking on Truth Decay， how they define it， and the ongoing research RAND is conducting to help counter it.

兰德公司总裁、首席执行官迈克尔·里奇一直在探讨他称之为“真相衰落”现象，即政治生活中越来越不尊重事实和证据。他邀请兰德的政治学家詹妮弗·卡瓦纳一同分析这一问题，并制定研究计划，以便更好地探究真相衰落的原因和后果。为了解相关进展，兰德的编辑团队采访了里奇和卡瓦纳。在下列访谈中，他们讨论了对真相衰落的思考过程，给出了定义，并谈到他们正在进行的对策研究。

What do you mean by Truth Decay， and when did you start thinking about the subject？

您所说的真相衰落是指什么？您是从什么时候开始思考这一问题的？

Michael Rich：My thinking on Truth Decay grew out of my work on the dangers of polarization， something I've been speaking on since 2005. More recently， I have been astounded by the erosion of truth in our politics. I'm using the term Truth Decay because I think it captures a phenomenon that goes well beyond the current outbreak of “fake news.”

迈克尔·里奇：2005年以来，我一直关注有关两极分化的危险，并由此开始思考“真相衰落”的问题。最近，政治领域中的真相磨蚀现象让我感到震惊。我用“真相衰落”这个说法，是因为这种现象远远超过当前爆发的“假新闻”现象。

Truth Decay describes a syndrome of distrust and disagreemen-

t. I see it as a process， not an end state. It has multiple causes and manifestations， some new and some that reach far back in history.

真相衰落描述的是一种不信任、无法达成共识的综合症。我认为这是一个过程，而不是最后的状态。它有多种原因和表现，有些是新近出现的，有些可以追溯到历史当中。

Jennifer Kavanagh：One of the elements we use to define Truth Decay is increased disagreement on basic sets of facts where consensus used to be more widespread， like the science showing the benefits of vaccines.

詹妮弗·卡瓦纳：真相衰落定义包含的要素之一，就是对一些基本事实的分歧越来越大。这些基本事实在过去都是有广泛共识的，比如科学研究提出的疫苗的好处。

Another part of our definition is the erosion of what used to be a clear line between fact and opinion. You can see this in news outlets where news stories and commentary often are difficult to distinguish from each other.

定义包含的另一部分，就是事实和观点之间原来很清楚的界限正在消融。这一点可以在新聞媒体上看到，现在新闻报道和评论之间的界限很难区分。

There's also a growing volume of opinions relative to facts in the information space， which can drown out the facts. Look at your Twitter feed or any social media platform—quite the imbalance of opinion versus facts.

在信息空间，与事实相关的观点或看法也越来越多，可能会淹没事实。看看你的推特或者其他社交媒体平台——观点和事实完全不平衡。

Michael's comment on trust is another aspect. In the past 20 years， the portion of Americans saying they trust newspapers and TV news “a great deal” or “quite a lot” has fallen from 35 percent to 20 percent， while trust in Congress fell from 22 percent to 9 percent. Even trust in books has declined， according to Gallup-from 41 percent in 1997 to 27 percent in 2016. How can we establish a core set of objective facts when people fundamentally don't trust key sources of information？

迈克尔说的信任是另一个问题。在过去的20年里，美国人“很相信”或“相当相信”报纸和电视新闻的人数已经从35%下降到20%，对国会的信任从22%下降到9%。甚至对书籍的信任度也在下降。根据盖洛普调查，人们对书籍的信任度从1997年的41%下降到2016年的27%。当人们根本不相信重要的信息来源时，我们怎么能确立一套核心的客观事实呢？

How widespread is this lack of trust？

信任缺乏的范围有多广？

Kavanagh：Plenty. A recent Edelman study found record mist-

rust worldwide， including in non-Western countries such as Malaysia. Europe is seeing the same degradation of trust in political institutions—the European Parliament as well as national parliaments—that we're seeing in the United States.

卡瓦纳：很广。爱德曼①最近的研究发现，在世界范围内，不信任现象已经达到创纪录的水平，包括马来西亚等一些非西方国家。欧洲的政治机构，如欧洲议会以及各国议会，正和美国一样面临着信任度下降的局面。

Could it be healthy that institutions are trusted less？

对政治机构的信任度下降有可能是好事吗？

Rich：It may be a good thing to the extent that people demand transparency and accountability from institutions and insist on verifiable facts， accuracy， and objectivity. It's not healthy if people begin reflexively distrusting all the experts and institutions they used to rely upon for complex technical or scientific information. And it's dangerous if people decide that it doesn't matter if something is factual or not， as long as it advances their interests or conforms to their beliefs.

里 奇：如果人们要求政治机构具有透明度和责任感，坚持提供能够验证的事实，保证事实的准确及客观性，从这一角度说，这可能是一件好事。但是，如果人们开始本能地怀疑那些过去一直依赖的专家和机构，也就是供给他们复杂的技术信息和科学信息的来源，那就不合适了。如果人们认定某件事是否属实并不重要，只要能促进他们的利益或符合他们的信仰就行，那就太危险了。

That's why I believe that Truth Decay and the polarization that drives it are grave threats to America—to our politics， our values， and ultimately our democracy. It's rotting away our public discourse， undermining our civic literacy， and we've even seen it inspire violence.

这就是为什么我相信真相衰落和两极分化这一动因是美国——是我们的政治、价值观以及民主，所面临的严重威胁。它正侵蚀着我们的公共话语，破坏我们的公民素养，甚至会激起暴力。

What's the ultimate harm？

最终伤害的是什么？

Rich：Well， it's hard to maintain democracy if you can't govern. Truth Decay certainly seems to be making it more difficult for government to function. Congress has been having chronic trouble passing laws， confirming nominees， and approving a budget. While there are a number of potential causes including differing values and reluctance to comprom-

ise， it seems it's in part because of disagreement about basic policy facts.

里 奇：如果控制不当，我们就很难保持民主。真相衰落使政府更加难以发挥其职能作用。长期以来，国会在审议法律条文、确认提名人、批准预算方面困难重重。虽然有一些潜在的原因，比如价值观不同、都不愿妥协等等，但部分原因似乎是对基本政策事实无法达成共识。

Another harm can arise if external adversaries use disinformat-

ion to delegitimize systems of governance. Think of the surge in cross-border propaganda， such as the effort by Russia that RAND studied in Christopher Paul's “Firehose of Falsehood” report.

如果国外的对手使用虚假信息来打击我们的管理体系，那就可能产生另一个危害。想想跨境宣传的暴涨态势吧。兰德公司克里斯托弗·保罗的报告《谎言灌喷》，研究的就是俄罗斯的宣传方式。

Unfortunately， information overload might be making us more vulnerable to disinformation. Garry Kasparov， the chess master and Russian dissident， said： “The point of modern propaganda isn't only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking … to annihilate truth.”

不幸的是，信息超载可能会使我们在虚假信息面前更加脆弱。国际象棋大师、俄罗斯持不同政见者加里·卡斯帕罗夫曾说：“现代宣传的重点不只是误传消息或推动议程，而是要耗尽你的辩证思考能力……最后毁灭真相。”

A decline in trust in institutions also can be life-threatening. Attacks on science have caused people to doubt the safety of vaccination， for instance. But study after study—including by RAND—shows that vaccines do not cause autism or other major harm. Some parents still refuse to vaccinate their children， which has real consequences. We are seeing a return of viruses like measles that had been mostly eradicated in America.

对机构信任下降也会危及生命。例如，抨击科学已经让人们怀疑接种疫苗的安全性。但是各种研究，包括兰德的研究，都表明疫苗不会导致自闭症或其他重大危害。然而有些父母仍然拒绝给孩子接种疫苗，这种做法会产生实际的后果。我们看到，麻疹等过去在美国基本灭绝的病毒又出现了。

Where do you see signs of Truth Decay？

您在哪里看到真相衰落的迹象？

Rich：Russian disinformation and hacking are good places to start. There's strong evidence of it in the United States， the former Soviet Union， and in Western Europe. We don't know how far it went in terms of influencing the last U.S. election， but we know Russia is using falsehood to sow confusion and delegitimize Weste-

rn democracies.

里 奇：俄羅斯的假情报和黑客行为就是例子。在美国、原苏联和西欧都能找到强大证据。我们不知道这对最近的美国大选究竟有多大影响，但我们知道俄罗斯正在利用谎言散播混乱，削弱西方民主国家。