Exploring a Way out by Understanding the Chaos in the Middle East

By Associate Professor Tian Wenlin

China’s Contemporary Institutes of International Relations

On January 20th,the Turkish Government launched a military action named the Olive Branch to the area controlled by the"People's Protection Units" (the Syrian branch of the Kurdish Workers Party listed by the Turkish Government as a terrorist organization)of the Kurdish armed forces in Syria.This military operation,which is expanding in scale and increasing casualties,has made the existing complicated situation in the Middle East more chaotic.

The Middle East is the region with the highest frequency of war in the world.During the Cold War,5 wars broke out in the Middle East,in addition to the 8-year Iran-Iraq war.After the end of the Cold War,the Middle East is still the region with the highest frequency of war.Especially after the upheaval in the Middle East in 2011,the fragile political pattern in the Middle East was broken and various secondary contradictions burst out,which lead to the emergence of endless conflicts and wars in the Middle East and multiple negative effects.If the Middle East wants to embark on the road of peace and development,it must strengthen internal unity,take development as the top priority and firmly oppose hegemonism.The idea of a community with a shared future for mankind and the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China provide a new way for the Middle East to move from decline to revival.

X-ray four types of war

Currently,there are four types of wars that are deeply affecting the Middle East.

First,"proxy war" caused by a religious sectarian conflict-the civil war in Syria.The Middle East is the core area of the Islamic world,and the sectarian conflicts between Sunnis and Shiites crop up here and there.Since the upheaval in the Middle East in 2011,the sovereign state consciousness in the Middle East has been weakened,and the primary contradictions between tribalsects are highlighted.In particular,the regional influence of Saudi Arabia and Iran is prominent,making the contradictions between the sects in the Middle East unprecedentedly intensified.The civil war in Syria is a typical"proxy war"among sects. The composition of Syria sects is complex.Some say there are 47 ethnic groups and sects.After the outbreak of the Syria crisis in 2011,the sectarian contradictions in the country are becoming open and hot:the Shiite pro-Bashar Administration is supported by Shiite forces including Iranian and Lebanese Hezbollah,while the Syria opposition is supported by Sunni countries such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey.As a result,the Syrian crisis has gradually evolved into a bloody civil war lasting for several years.By the end of last year,the"Islamic State",which had been ravaged in Syria,was completely defeated.For the first time,the Syria’s civil war,having lasted for several years,is getting less hot.However,because of the competition of external forces and the different positions and aspirations of all sides,the Syrian crisis seems to be eased,actually,a new round of game has just begun.

Second,the Yemen war for regional leadership.The Middle East is located with many countries,no country has absolute dominance,so there is fierce competition for regional dominance among these countries.Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil producing country,and the"guardian of the two great holy monasteries",coupled with the special relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States as the backing,and Saudi Arabia's position in the Middle East is always important.After the upheaval in the Middle East in 2011,by virtue of"welfare for stability",Saudi Arabia succeeded in avoiding the tide of regime changes and replaced Egypt as the new"leader"of the Arabia world.Saudi Arabia regards as the core objective the"containment of Iran"and the expansion of the Shiite camp.The war in Yemen is the product under this background.After President Saleh of Yemen came out of power in 2011,because of the limited ability of the new President Hardy to control the domestic situation,the Hussein armed forces in northern Yemen took the opportunity to fight southward,and occupies the capital Sanaa in early 2015 and then continue to go Southward.Saudi Arabia views expansion of Hussein's armed forces with the Shiite background as a force expansion of Iran. On March 26, 2015, Saudi Arabia straightforwardly sent troops to Yemen to attack Hussein's armed forces militarily.By the end of last year,the war in Yemen was still in a stalemate.Hussein's armed forces crossed the border to attack villages and cities in Saudi Arabia,and repeatedly fired missiles at the Saudi capital Riyadh,having shocked the Saudi Administration.Currently,the war of Yemen is still in a stalemate,and the prospect is full of variables.

Third,terrorism leads to the war on terrorism.The Middle East is the region with high emergence of extreme terror.Especially after the upheaval in the Middle East in 2011,the transformation of the Middle East countries was not smooth and the security vacuum increased,which provide rich soil for the conception and spread of terrorist activities.The Al Qaeda organization is already badly hit,but is making a comeback by taking advantage of this regional crisis.In June 2014,the Islamic State,an extremist group,also sought to delimit land and set up the State of Khalifa and became the new leader of the extreme terrorist forces in the Middle East.The extreme terrorist forces in the Middle East ravaged,especially the rise of the Islamic State makes terrorism and counter-terrorism a major contradiction in the Middle East.

The United States,Russia and Saudi Arabia have set up their own international counter-terrorism alliances headed by themselves separately,and completely encircled the Islamic State,and the Islamic State has suffered major setbacks in Iraq and Syria.On November 21st last year,Iran and Iraq announced at the same time that the Islamic State had been exterminated and the Middle East achieved great success in counter-terrorism.However,the victory of the front battlefield does not mean that the extreme terrorist forces have been eradicated,the Middle East countries still face the threat of terror,and the war on terrorism will not stop in the near future.

Fourth,the anti-separatist war triggered by the Kurdish separatist movement.Kurds population is the fourth largest ethnic group among Arabs,Turkish,Persians and Kurds in the Middle East,but never have a nation state of their own.Therefore,the Kurds have always sought national independence,but it is hard to achieve the goal because of the immature subjective and objective conditions.In the year 2011,the foundation for the geopolitical pattern of the Middle East was shaken,and the Kurds independence movement met with a good opportunity.In Syria,the Kurds took advantage of the contracted government armed forces,carried out a high degree of autonomy,established the"people's protection force"(YPG)and expanded it on the pretext of fighting the"Islamic State".It is reported that the"YPG"has about 4~50000 people (another estimates 1~20000 people),and is fully supported by the United States and has become a strong group.In Iraq,the Kurdish region is highly autonomous and has its own Government,Parliament and army.After the rise of the"Islamic State",the Iraqi Kurds expanded its territory with the opportunity,the Kurds government-controlled territory was expanded by 40%,the armed forces increased from 100000 to 400000,and the Kurdish independence movement was strengthened.On September 25th last year,this Kurdish government forced an independent referendum and was approved by 92%votes.The growth of the Kurdish armed forces as well as the passed independent referendum in the Iraqi Kurdish region have made the related four stakeholders of Iran,Iraq,Syria and Turkey highly nervous.The Iraqi Central Government repeatedly stressed that the referendum is illegal and has directly dispatched troops to occupy the Kurdish government-controlled areas such as Kirkuk,and put the referendum to the end. In the regional countries,Turkey has the strongest reaction to prevent the chain effect,before the referendum,even threatened to block the Kurds' transportation path of crude oil to prevent its independence momentum.In Syria,the Turkish policy focuses on curbing the Kurdish armed growth from"getting Bashar down".On January 20th,the"Olive Branch action"cross-border air-raided 153 Kurdish armed targets in the territory,and even bombed the Airport with which the United States transported materials to the Kurdish forces,then launched a ground attack on the Kurdish armed forces in the region.In the long run,the Kurdish independence movement like a time bomb can explode at any time,which means that the anti-secession war will continue.

Tracing the three major traditional contradictions

From the surface,there are three main reasons for the current Middle East War:One is the extreme terrorism caused by Islamic extremism;two is the sectarian conflict caused by the differences between Sunni and Shiite;and three is the ethnic separation movement caused by the ethnic groups mixture and trans-border ethnic groups.However,in an in-depth view,the main causes of the continuous war in the Middle East are the following.

First,the geographical fragmentation leads to the internal frictions of the Middle East countries.The geographical layout of the Middle East is the result of artificial creation by the Western colonial powers.After the outbreak of World War I,Osman empire joined the war on the side of Germany and Austria-Hungary,so Britain decided to dismember the Osman empire.During the years 1915-1916,British officials reached a secret agreement with Hossain,the leader of Arabia:the Arabs launched an uprising against the Osman Empire,and Britain promised to help the Arabs to establish a unified national state after the war.But Britain soon broke its promise and secretly reached the Sykes-Picot Agreement with France,having secretly divided the Arabia world.After the war,Britain and France dismembered the Middle East Territory by"trust rule"based on the above secret agreement.The Arabian ethnic groups originally had potential to become a world power,but was eventually divided into 22 Arabian countries.In addition,Israel's establishment in the Middle East caused many wars between Arab and Israel,and Arabian unification cause failed on the verge of success.

The geographical fragmentation of Arabian world has created a complex balance of strength in the Middle East.The political system,ideology,foreign policy and religious sects of countries in Arabia have huge differences so it is difficult for them to form long-term alliances.On the contrary,each country is afraid of a unfavorable situation developing toward themselves,so the"mutual balance"approach is adopted among them,which leads to the constant internal consumption in the region and the aggravation of the regional security dilemma.In the 1950s and 1960s,Egypt interfered in the internal affairs of Yemen with armed forces during its heyday of power in the Arabian world;when Iraq was getting powerful,it annexed Kuwait by force in 1990;after the upheaval in the Middle East in 2011,Saudi influence rose and then invaded Yemen by force in 2015.But the outcome of war is no side gains.

Second,the economic development in the Middle East lags behind,causing the public to"consider changes due to poverty".The economic foundation determines the superstructure.Conflicts in the Middle East constantly crop up,which superficially are problems in the political and social sphere,but in fact is produced by backward development.The Islamic world is located on the cross-section of three continents of Europe,Asia and Africa,and"developing a country by trade"runs through the entire history.But in the industrial age,the lack of industrialization led to the Middle East economy being locked in the downstream position of the global industrial chain.According to the World Bank data,the labor productivity of the Arabian world declined at a rate of 0.2%year on year during the years 1960 to 1990.At present,1/3 of Arabian population lives below the poverty line.At the same time,people in power in some Middle East countries turn their service from the public to the elite, the state power has become a profit-making tool for a small number of power holders,and the unfair distribution of wealth is becoming more and more serious.Many Muslims have lost confidence in getting out of their predicament and are trapped in helplessness,despair and extreme emotions.The Islamic state is the product and embodiment of this anti-globalization force.

Third,the external hegemonic intervention has led to the increase of"failed states"in the Middle East,and"secondary disasters"emerge one after another.The Middle East with strategic importance has always been the main battleground for the external powers to contend for interests.Coupled with the geopolitical fragmentation and the lack of a collective security mechanism,the Middle East can neither achieve self-relied growth nor prevent external forces from entering the Middle East,because of inviting external forces to enter.In the Middle East,external hegemonic intervention has become commonplace.Since the end of the cold war,the West has launched 5 regional wars in the world,of which 4 are in the Islamic world and 3 directly against Arabian countries.The Arabian world sees Western powers ramping up and damaging Arabian rights and interests,regional stability and international justice,but it is hard for them to make a strong counterattack.

Many years of war and conflict have brought multiple negative impacts to the Middle East.First,the economic development in the Middle East has been seriously affected.On the one hand,the high military expenditure of various countries has swallowed the expenditure that could originally be intended for development and people's livelihood,and the Middle East countries are increasingly deviating from the main track ofeconomic development.On the other hand,the security situation has worsened the external environment needed for economic development.The Middle East countries are increasingly trapped in the vicious circle of"the poorer,the more chaotic;and the more chaotic,the poorer".Secondly,the weak and small countries in the Middle East have fallen victim to the geopolitical game,and some countries have seen serious humanitarian disasters.Thirdly,"snipe and clam grapple,a fish man gains"in the Arabian world,resulting in"saddening one’s own folk and gladdening the adversary".In the Middle East,all the fighting sides have repeatedly become losers,but benefit both Israel and the United States.Especially in November last year,President Trump agreed to move the U.S.Embassy to Jerusalem,a strong backing to Israel.It is almost impossible for Palestine and Israel to achieve"peace".

Since the upheaval in the year 2011 in the Middle East,the Western countries led by the United States have taken the opportunity to shape the"New Middle East" beneficial to the West.Particularly,regarding Libya,Syria and other countries that did not listen to the U.S.orders,the West added fuel to fire,launched the Libya war and overthrew the Al-qaddafi regime of 42 years in power;meanwhile,in Syria,it instigated the"agent war",thus Syria has fallen into a continuous civil war for many years.From the security perspective,the main policy of the United States in the Middle East is to protect the security of Israel and prevent the rise of a regional power;from the economic perspective,with the increase of American energy self-sufficiency,the economic power of the United States in the Middle East has shifted from ensuring the"stable flow of oil at low price from the Middle East"to the sale of arms to the Middle East countries.In other words,only if the Middle East maintains the state of war and conflict,can the U.S.arms dealers gain their profits.Therefore,the Middle East is now in a"controllable mess",which is objectively conducive to the realization of the strategic interests of the United States.

Looking for a new way from chaos to governance

The fact shows that the Middle East has long been subject to the Western dominated state system,and the final result is geopolitical fragmentation,economic dependence and political unrest,and a vicious cycle that is difficult to extricate itself.In this context,the Middle East must adjust its strategic direction to realize the rebirth,turning from"looking Westward"to"looking Eastward",especially the concept of a community with a shared future for human kind and the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China provide a potential new way for the Middle East to move from decline to revival.

China's idea of non-interference in the internal affairs and building a community with a shared future for mankind provides a new choice for the Middle East to move from chaos to governance.From the political and diplomatic perspectives,China is the largest developing country,and had long been bullied by the West in the past,and well knows the logic that"do not unto others as you would not have them do onto you".Therefore,at the beginning of the founding of the new China,it put forward the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence,which is still the greatest magic weapon of China's diplomacy.In recent years,President Xi Jinping has put forward a series of new concepts such as the concept of Asian security and a community with a shared future for mankind,emphasizing China's path of peaceful development.Specifically regarding the Middle East,China always advocates dialogue instead of confrontation,partnership instead of alliances,political settlement of regional disputes and supports the Arabian World to get solidarity and work together.

Currently,the U.S.strategic contraction in the Middle East is clearly a good opportunity for some countries to fill the vacuum.But in China's view,"power vacuum"and"filling the vacuum"are all manifestations of hegemonism and power politics.China has consciously positioned China as a builder of stability in the Middle East,not a troublemaker.Two years ago,when President Xi Jinping visited the Middle East,he made clear the "three non-principles",i.e."do not seek agents,do no build sphere of influence,and do not seek to fill the' vacuum".This is quite different from the Western geopolitical theories and policies that are followed for hundreds of years,but is more in line with the interests and needs of the Middle East countries,and thus objectively becomes the"positive energy"for the stability and development of the Middle East.

Highlighting "development priority" and promoting stability through economic development,the ultimate goal is to build a community with a shared future for mankind. China is the largest developing country in the world.The biggest task now facing is to build a moderately prosperous society in all respects and achieve the"two century goals".The China’s concept of"taking economic construction as the center key-link"reflects the"development priority"in its foreign strategy,and builds a community with a shared future for mankind through the common development with the external world.The Belt and Road Initiative is a reflection of this"development priority"policy.The China’s concept of"development priority" is different from the Western capitalist countries winner to take all and creating a new"centeredge"order,but advocates"upholding justice while pursuing benefits", emphasizes "extensive consultation,joint construction and shared benefits",and promote a new-type globalization.The Belt and Road Initiative is the embodiment of China's policy of"development priority"and"upholding justice while pursuing benefits",as well as a new platform for China to deepen economic cooperation with the Middle East.

China's"development priority"concept and the Belt and Road Initiative are no doubt a good news for the Middle East.Historical experience shows that countries only along the world commercial routes and in the new world business central areas can they become the hot spots of capital investment.Once upon a time,the Islamic world was highly prosperous because of its dominance in the trade routes between the East and the West.With the discovery of the modern American continent,the world economic center is increasingly turning from land routes to sea lanes,from the Mediterranean to the Atlantic.The Islamic world is no longer the indispensable new business route,nor a world commercial center,lost the conditions for using world markets and international trade to develop domestic industry,and is more and more marginalized.

In other words,the rise and fall of the Islamic world has a strong proportional relationship with the rise and fall of the Silk Road.The Belt and Road Initiative is actually to restart the Silk Road for the East-West trade.Whether it is the Silk Road Economic Belt on land,or 21st Century Maritime Silk Road on sea,the Middle East is the indispensable routes. This has brought unprecedented opportunities to the Islamic world.Especially in the moment,the Middle East is in a difficult period of conflict and turbulence,and bursting contradictions of all kinds, only accelerating economic development is the measure for cementing the foundation.President Xi states clearly in the speech in January 2016 at the headquarters of the League of Arab States:"to solve problems,the key is to speed up development.The turmoil in the Middle East is rooted in development and ultimately depends on development for solution".Therefore,the Belt and Road Initiative is in line with the interests of the Middle East countries and helps to build a harmonious and stable New Middle East.