竺彩华文章英译文

I.The Role Played by the Belt and Road Initiative in Re-Balancing the World Economy

A.The Effects of the Global Infrastructural Interconnection and Intercommunication

For a long time, the vicious circle between the lagging of infrastructure and backward economic development has been not only the common challenge the developing countries are confronted with, but also the huge development deficit left over by the globalization dominated by the West. The lagging infrastructure has already become the shackle that impedes the development of many backward countries, which is also the important reason that they had been left far behind by every industrial revolution in the past and the globalization.

The Belt and Road initiative, based on the principle of promotion of the global infrastructural interconnection and intercommunication, is now leading the fragmented globalization into a brand-new era of interconnection and intercommunication. On the one hand, the global infrastructural interconnection and intercommunication will directly bring about better growth of world economy. The tariff diminution in the traditional globalization can promote the global economic growth by 5 percent at the most, while the interconnection and intercommunication of the new-type of globalization will boost the world economic growth by 10-15 percent. In addition, according to the estimate by Lin Yifu, the former Vice President of the World Bank, every dollar added to the infrastructural investment in the developing countries will increase their import by 0.7 dollar, of which 0.35 dollar will come from the developed countries. Therefore, the global infrastructural investment will increase the export of the developed countries, creating spaces for their structural reforms. On the other hand, the global infrastructural interconnection and intercommunication has particularly manifested the public goods nature as well as the livelihood and development orientation of the Belt and Road initiative,which is favorable to realize the localization of the globalization, making the economy return to the roots of the real industry and the broad masses gain more feelings of involvement, acquisition and happiness in the globalization. The development concept of “infrastructure plus livelihood projects” promoted by China has made the “great economic integration, great development linkage and great result sharing” advocated by the Belt and Road initiative very popular. The Belt and Road initiative is now curing the ills of the neo-liberal globalization through advocating the global infrastructural interconnection and intercommunication, which will channel the hot money to the real economy so as to eliminate the source of global financial crisis.

B.The Effects of the International Capacity Cooperation

The in-depth structural adjustment of the world economy has brought about a new wave of global industrial transfer. On the one hand, in the forefront of global industrial development, the major countries are making efforts to embrace the new industries brought about by the 4th industrial revolution;while on the other hand, the dynamic changes of the industrial cost globally have caused a part (or some component parts) of the manufacturing industry to transfer from high-cost countries to low-cost countries, including the manufacturing industry returning to the developed countries that can offer good market and business environment (such as the U.S.) and its transfer to the developing countries where the labor cost is very low. But, it is necessary to point out that in the new wave of global industrial adjustment, the stepwise transfer of the manufacturing industry in accordance with the labor cost changes of countries concerned or its regional allocation according to the value chain that took place in East Asia in the past will be reversed to some extent, as either smart manufacturing or flexible manufacturing means that many of the low-end of manufacturing jobs will be upgraded or reclaimed by the developed countries (the U.S. in particular), since robots taking over the low-skilled jobs has already become the development trend. This is a great challenge to many of the developing countries that have not walked on the industrialization path in a true sense, which means that they will lose their cutting edge with low labor cost in undertaking the manufacturing (or the component parts of manufacturing) transfer. In the future, the competition between robots(automated production) and general skilled workers will be global rather than taking place only in the developed countries where the labor cost is relatively high. So to speak, the unfolding of the new round of global industrial reshuffle will not limit to the first-tier countries, such as the U.S., Japan and Germany,over the high-end manufacturing, but also involves competition over traditional manufacturing between the developed countries and the developing countries.What is different is that in the traditional manufacturing competition, the developed countries will rely on the automatic production technology and good business environment, while the developing countries will mainly stick to their traditional advantage of low labor cost. In addition, the globalization led by high-tech requires that any country joining in the globalization should have new technologies, computers and other relevant equipment to get connected with other countries, while many of the countries and regions along the Belt and Road are short of such conditions. As a result, what the new round of global industrial adjustment has brought to the countries and regions along the Belt and Road are not all development opportunities, as most of them are challenges.For the developing countries, there is not much time left, as their demographic dividend is likely to be turned into demographic nightmare against such background as robots replacing the workers.

China is actively promoting the international capacity cooperation, which provides the last opportunity for these countries to undertake the industrial transfer that adapts to their domestic advantages. On the one hand, China’s high-tech development in the internet age has already been in a leading position of the world, which enables China to make its contributions in helping the developing countries to bridge the digital divide. On the other hand, China boosting the international capacity cooperation is different in nature from the developed and industrialized countries transferring their low-end production capacity to the developing countries in the post-war era. The international capacity cooperation advocated by China is based on principles of equality,mutual benefit and win-win, which involve economic and technical cooperation that meet the domestic development needs of both parties, mainly in the advanced equipment manufacturing industry where China has advantages,such as nuclear power, railway, communication and smart grid. It is entirely different from the Western countries that transfer only low-end manufacturing industry to the developing countries, as the equipment manufacturing industry is the rare industry that demands capital, technology and manpower vigorously,which is the basic industry needed by countries concerned to participate in the globalization led by high-tech and of great importance to those countries along the Belt and Road to accelerate their industrialization process.

II. The Role Played by the Belt and Road Initiative in Re-Balancing the International Interest Pattern

The construction of the Belt and Road plays a big role in re-balancing the economic interest pattern, which may be seen in three aspects: redressing the imbalance relations in power and profit allocation between the government and the market, between the center and the periphery, and between the sea power and the land power in the neo liberal globalization process.

A.The Role to Effectively Balance the Government and the Market

In the context of the existing international politics, the economic globalization cannot run smoothly without the protection of sovereignty of all nations and moreover the inter-governmental cooperation to reduce the global transaction cost. The first of the “Wutong” involved in the construction of the Belt and Road is communication on policies, which has determined that the Belt and Road initiative is meant to build a road to peace and prosperity on the basis of mutual respect of each other’s sovereignty, dignity and territorial integrity;mutual respect of each other’s development path and social system; and mutual respect of each other’s core interests and major concerns; rather than promote a road to plunder and decay by utilizing the power and hegemony to boost market forces. China has always stressed that the construction of the Belt and Road does not demand that the countries concerned make a fresh start or a restart, but is meant to realize the synergy of each other’s strategies and complementary advantages. For this, China has coordinated with certain countries concerned on relevant policies, including the Eurasian Economic Union raised by Russia,the Overall Planning of Interconnection and Intercommunication raised by ASEAN, the “Bright Road” raised by Kazakhstan, the “Middle Corridor” raised by Turkey, the “Steppe Road” raised by Mongolia, the “Two Corridors and One Circle” raised by Vietnam, the “The Northern Economic Hub in Northern England” raised by the UK, and the “Amber Road” raised by Poland. Based on policy communication, enterprises will be made the main bodies operating in accordance with the market principles in the construction of the Belt and Road, which can both reduce effectively the transaction cost of the enterprises,and allow the enterprises to play a proactive and active role as the main bodies in the market so as to enhance the efficiency by allocating resources through market mechanism.

Besides, to achieve the interconnection and intercommunication of the infrastructure with the nature of public goods, it would be basically impossible without the promotion of the government, which is the defect of the traditional globalization. Nevertheless, the construction of the Belt and Road has originally emerged from financial cooperation for development. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) established under the advocacy of China has played an effective role of development finance with its high-standard and high-efficient international governance model, which has resolved the dual predicament of the countries along the Belt and Road, namely the underdeveloped market economy and the serious inadequacy of infrastructure. The differences of development finance from commercial finance and policy finance lie in the fact that it is not only a finance activity, but also a process of system construction. As the market economy system in many of the countries along the Belt and Road is imperfect,the spread of the development finance service may help these countries with their system construction as well as raise their governance ability and the governance level of the government.

B. Further Smashing the “Center-Periphery” Interest Structure Dominated by the West

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the interest structure of the world economy has been transforming from the “center-periphery” model to the “coexistence of blocks and networks” model, as the new science and technology revolution has brought about new industries and new division of labor, under the joint promotion by the further development of economic globalization and regionalization, which is bringing about a diversified interest structure with the original “center-periphery” structure in the world economic system breaking up, while the construction of the Belt and Road will accelerate this process.

The Belt and Road runs through the Eurasia landmass and Africa, with the brisk East Asia economic circle at one of its ends and the developed European economic circle at the other, while in between there is the economic depression with vast territories, huge population and abundant natural resources, including Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, and West Asia and Northern Africa. The Belt and Road initiative is intended to promote the development of industrialization by infrastructural construction, which will exert a profound impact on the re-shaping of the grand Asia-Europe economic and trade pattern. On the one hand, the cooperation in infrastructural interconnection and intercommunication will be a bright spot at a higher level in international cooperation next to the trade and investment cooperation in the process of economic globalization, which will directly boost the growth of local economy, provide new driving force for the world economic growth and bring benefits to the broad masses. On the other hand, the promotion of the regional infrastructural construction and the formation of the basic industries and markets are conducive to the industrialization and diversified development of the countries that had been marginalized in the traditional globalization process to achieve high-efficient, unblocked and organic interconnection and intercommunication in information, logistics, capital, technology and talents,which will fundamentally narrow the economic disparities among nations,correct the imbalance of the world economic development, and form a brandnew pattern for international economic and trade cooperation. It can be expected that along with the advance of the construction of interconnection and intercommunication, the economic ties between Asia and Europe will be tightened, and there is a high probability that the world economic and trade pattern will enter a new Asia-Europe era in the future. In addition to the trans-Atlantic trade axis composed of the developed countries from Europe and America and the Pacific trade axis composed by some East Asian countries,there will emerge a brand-new Asia-Europe trade axis in the world.

C. Overcoming the imbalance between the land powers and the sea powers

The traditional globalization rose from the sea and has grown by the sea.The coastal regions and maritime nations have taken the lead in development with the rise of international trade and investment, while the land powers and land-locked nations are left far behind for lacking low-cost trade and investment channels, resulting in a great disparity of wealth between the land powers and the sea powers. The Belt and Road initiative encourages China to open westward, which will drive the development of China’s western regions as well as the development and opening-up of Central Asia and Mongolia,as China promotes the inclusive development concept of globalization in the international community. Meanwhile, China proactively spreads its high quality capacity and comparatively superior industries westward, which will benefit the countries along the Belt and Road first and change the look of the development “depression” of the regions along the old days Silk Road, as they benefitted very little only as the corridors for the East-West trade and cultural exchanges. This will avoid the disparity of wealth and the imbalance of regional development resulted from the globalization brought about by the West.

The nature of the land power and the sea power concept is control and extortion, which runs contrary to the vision of the Belt and Road initiative.Any country cannot change its geographical location, but interconnection and intercommunication offers them the tool to break the geographical fatalism.The construction of the Belt and Road itself is the peaceful cooperation among nations of different geographical attributes, seeking to establish an open network system among the land and coastal countries that enables them to interweave each other, get interconnected, engage in peaceful cooperation and achieve common development, as the Belt and Road initiative does not mean the separation of the “Belt” and the “Road”. This not only ensures the landlocked nations exits to seas and a geo-space for peaceful cooperation with the maritime countries globally, but also satisfies the desire of the maritime countries to get into the Eurasia landmass for peaceful cooperation. Therefore,the construction of the Belt and Road will help all the participating nations to get thoroughly out of the possible geo-security dilemma among them caused by the “land power and sea power” concept as it has nothing to do with the concept, which is a new development concept for globalization that has transcended the control thinking, and is a brand-new idea for the “peaceful cooperation among the land powers and the sea powers”.

III. The Role Played by the Belt and Road Initiative in Re-Balancing the Global Governance Pattern

With the overall rising of the developing countries as represented by the BRICS, the world economic pattern is undergoing fundamental changes,which has brought great reform pressure on the global governance pattern, as the global economic governance is getting fragmented with each passing day.First of all, the international financial crisis taking place in 2008 has upgraded the G20 ministerial meeting to a Summit meeting. The participation of 11 new emerging economies has made the G20 become the most effective decision mechanism in the existing global governance framework, which is more legitimate than the G7/8. The establishment of this decision mechanism has also promoted the reforms of the two most important institutions in the global governance framework----the IMF and the World Bank, transferring more of the shares that reflect respective discourse power to the developing countries from the developed countries. Meanwhile, the developing countries have begun to establish new governance mechanisms with themselves at the core to resolve their own problems, such as the AIIB and the New Development Bank, and the establishment of the CMIM and the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement.In addition, multilateral trade mechanisms are giving way to regional and plurilateral or bilateral trade governance. The afore-mentioned fragmentation situation in the global economic governance has reflected the waning of American economic hegemony and the weakening of its ability to control over the global economic governance system. Against such a background, the international community began to worry about the “Kindleberger Trap” in addition to their worries about the “Thucydides Trap”.

Currently, the American strategy for globalization is entering an adjourning period, with the TPP cooling down and the European integration trapped in a dilemma. Against such a background, the two wheels used to push the development of economic globalization stopped. The economic globalization is in the transition from the old mode to the new one, as the old mode of global economic governance is questioned, while the new one is forthcoming.The Belt and Road initiative is a new-type of globalization raised by China based on its own development experiences and the general trend of human development, which has taken the “wide discussion, joint contribution and shared benefits” as the basic principles, the transportation corridors as the ties, the interconnection and intercommunication as the basis, the diversified cooperation mechanisms as the platform, and constructing the community of common destiny as the goal, fully manifesting the characteristics of inclusiveness, universality and equilibrium needed for the new-type and sustainable globalization. First, in this mode, there is no hegemonic power that imposes its ideology onto other countries, but following a new cooperation model that stresses on mutual benefits and win-win based on fully respecting each other’s sovereignty. Second, the Belt and Road initiative is an innovation of the regional cooperation model, seeking to create a “common governance pattern” based on the principle of “wide discussion, joint contribution and shared benefits”, rather than obtaining the in-depth integration in the traditional regional cooperation supported by negotiations on various rules. Third, the Belt and Road initiative has created new governance rules and mechanisms,as the AIIB launched by China is a great innovation of the South-North development cooperation model. Based on the experiences and lessons in management and operation of the existing international development financial institutions, the AIIB is actively exploring new management and operation models. For instance, it has not established a permanent executive board, but rather improved its efficiency by emails, telephone calls and video conferences based on making clear the duties and responsibilities of the board of directors and the administrative departments. For another example, it has implemented an open global procurement policy, which has ensured low-costs for the construction projects. Because of these innovative management and operation models, coupled with the ideas of openness, inclusiveness and green, the AIIB has not only overcome the problems of overstaffing and low-efficiency currently obsessing many of the international financial organizations, but also admitting in more new members after a year’s operation. By June 16 of 2017,the AIIB’s membership increased quickly from 57 to 80, with many countries presently applying for entry. Last, the Belt and Road initiative will promote the transformation of the present globalization from the “partial globalization” to the “inclusive globalization”, from the “globalization led by free trade” to the“globalization led by interconnection and intercommunication”, so as to reach the goal of marching from the “differentiated globalization” to a “communityof-common-destiny-typed globalization”. If what international public good the US is said to provide the world is security, the international public good China provides the world is interconnection and intercommunication. The Belt and Road initiative, with “Wutong” as its main content, is the public good China can provide the world within its ability as a regional power, which accords with the fundamental interests of the international community and shows forth common ideal and good pursuit of the human society, and which is also China’s active exploration for a new model for the international cooperation and global governance, the new idea and driving force China contributes to the world peace and development, and the best solution to the so-called “Kindleberger Trap” China offers the world by using its own scheme and action.

(The author is Deputy Director and Professor from the Institute of Foreign Trade of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, MOFCOM; and Guest Research Fellow with CPDS. This article was received on Aug.9, 2017)