大城市综合交通系统的运行可靠性与应急策略分析研究报告

王云鹏　鲁光泉　雷方舒　王馨　蔡品隆

摘 要：主要针对北京和上海等交通系统较脆弱的超大城市，研究综合交通系统的运行可靠性，揭示不同时空尺度下以道路交通和城市轨道交通为主的交通系统运行可靠性的耦合机理和演化规律，探索提高抗干扰的能力、应对突发事件的措施和保障大型社会活动的交通组织预案。基于采集的基础交通数据，从交通系统运行可靠性指标体系、可靠性影响因素特征参数演化、交通系统运行可靠性微观、宏观等角度进行研究，最终通过研究交通网络多方式系统耦合理论，建立大城市综合交通系统可靠性模型，揭示接近临界状态的大城市弱平衡综合交通系统面对恶劣天气、突发性自然灾害、事故、大型活动等非常规条件的脆弱性。并将理论研究成果用于指导交通实践，减少我国城市交通规划、设计、建设和管理中的盲目性，提高整个城市综合交通系统的协同运行可靠性。

关键词：综合交通系统 运行可靠性 应急策略

Abstract： The research focuses on the megacities， such as Beijing or Shanghai， of which transportation system would be more vulnerable. In depth study of the integrated transport system， we will reveal the evolution of the coupling mechanism and transportation system operation reliability， road transport and urban rail transport concerned mainly， under the different spatial and temporal scales. The purpose is to explore the ability to improve noise immunity of transportation and response to emergencies. It can also protect traffic organization plan for large-scale social activities. On the basis of traffic data collection， the main research areas include transport system reliability index system， reliability factors affecting the evolution of the characteristic parameters， and traffic system reliability from micro and macro perspectives. Finally， we can establish a reliability model about metropolitan transportation systems through research on system coupling theory of multi-mode transportation network. The issue also reveals the vulnerabilities of cities weak-balanced integrated transport systems closed to the critical state when facing bad weather conditions， unexpected natural disasters， accidents， events and other unconventional conditions. We can take the theory research to guide traffic， which can reduce blindness of urban transportation planning， design， construction and management in our country， and improve collaborative operational reliability of integrated transport system throughout the city， simultaneously.

Key Words： Transportation systems； Operational reliability； Emergency strategy

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