有关人类未来的10大问题

2016-12-05王炤翔

新东方英语 2016年12期

王炤翔

1 Does humanity have a future beyond Earth？人类离开地球会有未来吗？

“I think its a dangerous delusion to envisage1） mass emigration from Earth. Theres nowhere else in the solar system thats as comfortable as even the top of Everest or the South Pole. We must address the worlds problems here. Nevertheless， Id guess that by the next century， there will be groups of privately funded adventurers living on Mars and thereafter perhaps elsewhere in the solar system. We should surely wish these pioneer settlers good luck in using all the cyborg2） techniques and biotech to adapt to alien environments. Within a few centuries they will have become a new species： The posthuman3） era will have begun. Travel beyond the solar system is an enterprise for posthumans—organic or inorganic.”

—Martin Rees， British cosmologist and astrophysicist

2 When and where do you think we will find extraterrestrial4） life？你认为我们会在何时何地发现外星生命？

“If there is abundant microbial life on Mars， I suspect that we will find it within 20 years—if it is enough like our form of life. If an alien life-form differs much from what we have here on Earth， it is going to be difficult to detect. Its also possible that any surviving Martian microbes are rare and located in places that are difficult for a robotic lander to reach. Jupiters moon Europa and Saturns moon Titan5） are more compelling places. Europa is a water world where more complex forms of life may have evolved. And Titan is probably the most interesting place in the solar system to look for life. It is rich in organic molecules but very cold and has no liquid water； if life exists on Titan， it will be very different from life on Earth.”

—Carol E. Cleland， philosophy professor at the University of Colorado Boulder

3 Will the entire world one day have adequate health care？是否会有一天全世界都能享有充足的医疗保障？

“The global community has made tremendous progress toward health equity over the past 25 years， but these advances have not reached the worlds most remote communities. Deep in the rain forest， where people are cut off from transportation and cellular networks， mortality is the highest； access to health care is the most limited and quality of care is the worst. The World Health Organization estimates that one billion people go their entire lives without seeing a health worker because of distance. Health workers recruited directly from the communities they serve can bridge the gap. They can even fight epidemics such as Ebola and maintain access to primary care when health facilities are forced to shut their doors. If the global community is serious about ensuring access to health care for all， it must invest in health workers who can reach the most remote communities.”

—Raj Panjabi， instructor at Harvard Medical School

4 Can we feed the planet without destroying it？在不破坏地球的情况下我们能养活全人类吗？

“Yes. Heres what we need to do： Reduce crop waste， consumer waste and meat consumption； integrate appropriate seed technologies and management practices； engage consumers about the challenges farmers face in both the developed and the developing world； increase public funding for agricultural research and development； and focus on advancing the socioeconomic and environmental aspects of farming that characterize sustainable agriculture.”

—Pamela Ronald， professor in the University of California

5 Will we ever colonize outer space？人类会把外太空变成殖民地吗？

“That depends on the definition of ‘colonize. If landing robots qualifies， then weve already done it. If it means sending microbes from Earth and having them persist and maybe grow， then， unfortunately， its not unlikely that weve done that as well—possibly on Mars with the Phoenix6） spacecraft and almost certainly inside the Curiosity rover7）.

If it means having humans live elsewhere for a longer period of time， but not reproduce， then thats something that might happen within the next 50 years or so. But if the idea is to construct a self-sustaining environment where humans can persist indefinitely with only modest help from Earth， then Id say this is very far in the future， if its possible at all. We currently have a very inadequate understanding of how to build closed ecosystems that are robust to perturbation by introduced organisms or nonbiological events （Biosphere 28）， for example）， and I suspect that the contained ecosystem problem will turn out to be much more challenging than the vast majority of space colonization advocates realize. There are a wide range of technical problems to solve， another being air handling. We havent bothered to colonize areas underwater on Earth yet. Its far more challenging to colonize a place where theres hardly any atmosphere at all.”

—Catharine A. Conley， NASA planetary protection officer

6 Will we discover a twin Earth？我们会发现另一个地球吗？

“My moneys on yes. Weve found that planets around other stars are far more abundant and diverse than scientists imagined just a couple of decades ago. And weve also found that the crucial ingredient for life on this planet—water—is common in space. Id say nature seems to have stacked the deck9） in favor of a wide range of planets， including Earth-like planets. We just have to look for them.”

—Aki Roberge， research astrophysicist focusing on exoplanets at NASA

7 Will there ever be a cure for Alzheimers10）？究竟有没有治愈阿尔茨海默病的方法？

“I am not sure if there will be a cure， per se， but I am very hopeful that there will be a successful disease-modifying therapy for Alzheimers disease within the next decade. We have now started prevention trials that are testing biological interventions even before people show clinical symptoms of the disease. And we dont have to cure Alzheimers—we just need to delay dementia11） by five to 10 years. Estimates show that a five-year delay in the terrible and expensive dementia stage of the disease would reduce Medicare12） dementia costs by nearly 50 percent. Most important， that would mean that many older people could die while out ballroom dancing rather than in nursing homes.”

—Reisa Sperling， professor of neurology at Harvard Medical School

8 Will we ever figure out what dark matter13） is？我们会弄懂暗物质究竟是什么吗？

“Whether we can determine what dark matter is depends on what it turns out to be. Some forms of dark matter allow detection through small interactions with ordinary matter that have so far evaded detection. Others might be detectable through their influence on structures such as galaxies. Im hopeful we will learn more through experiments or observations. But its not guaranteed.”

—Lisa Randall， professor of science in Harvard University

9 Could we one day replace all of the tissues in the human body through engineering？

未来我们能借助工程学替换人体所有的组织吗？

“In 1995 I wrote for a magazine about advances in artificial pancreas technology14）， plastic-based tissues such as artificial skin and electronics that might permit blind people to see. All of these are coming to pass15）， either as real products or in clinical trials. Over the next few centuries it is quite possible that nearly every tissue in the body may be able to be replaced by such approaches. Creating or regenerating tissues such as those found in the brain， which is extremely complex and poorly understood， will take an enormous amount of research. The hope is， however， that research in this area will happen quickly enough to help with brain diseases such as Parkinsons.”

—Robert Langer， Professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

10 Will we use wearable technologies to detect our emotions？我们会利用可穿戴技术检测情绪吗？

“Emotions involve biochemical and electrical signals that reach every organ in our bodies—allowing， for example， stress to impact our physical and mental health. Wearable technologies let us quantify the patterns in these signals over long periods of time. In the coming decade wearables will enable the equivalent of personalized weather forecasts for our health： 80 percent increased probability in health and happiness for you next week， based on your recent stress/sleep/social-emotional activities. Unlike with weather， however， smart wearables can also identify patterns we might choose to change to reduce unwanted ‘storm events： Increase sleep to greater than or equal to nine hours per night and maintain current low-moderate stress， for a 60 percent reduced likelihood of seizure16） in the next four days. Over the next 20 years， wearables， and analytics derived from them， can dramatically reduce psychiatric and neurological disease.”

—Rosalind Picard， founder and director of the Affective Computing17） research group at the M.I.T. Media Lab

时光荏苒，曾经科幻小说里那些天马行空的想象，有些已成为我们的生活日常。如今的我们对未来同样有着种种的憧憬：人类移民外太空，人人享有医保，科学家治愈阿尔茨海默病……这些期盼何时能实现？如何实现？《美国科学人》杂志邀请了十位科学精英针对这些困扰我们的问题给出了回答。

“我认为设想大规模移居外星是一种危险的妄想。太阳系的其他任何星球甚至还不如珠峰或南极舒服。我们必须在地球上解决这个世界的问题。但是我猜想，到下个世纪，将会有成群的探险家在私人的资助下到火星居住，以后可能到太阳系的其他星球居住。我们当然应该祝福这些先驱移民者们，愿他们能利用半机器人技术和生物技术适应外星环境。几世纪之后，他们将变成一个新物种：后人类时代就开始了。飞出太阳系的旅行是那些有机或无机后人类的事业。”

——英国宇宙学家和天体物理学家马丁·里斯

“如果火星上存在大量的微生物，我猜测20年内我们就能发现外星生命——如果这些生命与我们的生命形式足够相似。如果外星的生命形式与我们地球上的生命形式相差太大，那将难以发现。也有可能火星上存活的微生物太稀少，且都生存在登陆机器人难以触及的地方。木卫二和土卫六是更具吸引力的星球。木卫二上有大量的水，在那里更高级的生命形式或许已经进化。要想寻找生命，土卫六也许是太阳系中最有趣的地方。那里有大量的有机分子，但非常寒冷，并且没有液态水。如果土卫六上存在生命，一定与地球上的生命形式大相径庭。”

——科罗拉多大学博尔德分校哲学教授卡罗尔·E·克莱兰德

“过去的25年来，国际社会在医疗公平方面取得了长足的进步，但是这些进步还没有惠及世界最偏远的社区。雨林深处的人们死亡率最高，那里交通闭塞，手机网络不通，获得的医疗保健最有限，医疗质量最差。世界卫生组织估计，由于距离遥远，有十亿人一生都没见过医务人员。直接从当地社区招募医务人员能弥补这个空缺。他们甚至能抗击埃博拉之类的流行病，在医疗机构被迫关闭时也能继续提供基础医疗保健。如果国际社会真心要确保医疗保障覆盖全人类，就必须在能到达最偏远社区的医务人员身上投资。”

——哈佛大学医学院讲师拉吉·旁遮普

“可以。我们需要做如下这些：减少粮食浪费、生活垃圾和肉类消耗；把适用的种子技术和管理实践相结合；让消费者了解发达国家和发展中国家的农民都面临的挑战；增加对农业研发的公共资金；着力提高可持续农业的社会经济效益和环境效益。”

——加利福尼亚大学教授帕梅拉·罗纳德

“这要看如何定义‘殖民了。如果机器人登陆算的话，那么我们已经做到了。如果这意味着把地球上的微生物送上去，让其存活并生长，那么，很不幸，我们很有可能也做到了——‘凤凰号飞船登陆火星时或许就实现过，而在‘好奇号探测器内几乎肯定实现了。

如果建立殖民地指的是人类长期在外星居住，但不繁衍后代，那么大约在未来50年内就可能实现。但如果指的是建造一个自给自足的环境，让人类只需地球适度的支持就能在其中无限存活下去，那么我认为就算可能，也是在十分遥远的未来。目前，我们不知道如何建立一个封闭的生态系统，使其能承受由于微生物引入或非生物因素（如生物圈2号）引发的微小变化。我认为其中的生态系统问题远远比绝大多数太空殖民倡导者所意识到的更具挑战性。有许多不同的技术问题要解决，另一个问题就是空气处理。我们还未在地球的水下区域建立殖民地，而要在一个几乎没有空气的地方建立殖民地，挑战性则更大。”

——美国国家航空航天局行星保护官员凯瑟琳·A·康利

“我下注赌会发现。我们已经发现在其他恒星周围的行星比科学家几十年前设想的数量更多，类型更丰富。我们也发现，地球上生命的关键要素——水——在太空中很常见。我觉得，大自然似乎以利于包括类地行星在内的各类行星的方式来暗中布局。我们只需要寻找他们。”

——美国国家航空航天局外行星研究天体物理学家阿基·罗伯格

“我不确定是否会有本质上治愈的方法，但我非常希望未来十年会有能有效改善阿尔茨海默病的疗法。现在，我们已经展开了预防试验，甚至在人们出现临床症状之前进行生物学干预。而且，我们不需要治愈阿尔茨海默病——我们只需要把失智症延缓五到十年。据估计，把可怕并且花费昂贵的失智期延缓五年，就能减少联邦医保中有关失智症50%的费用。最重要的是，这就意味着更多的老人可能在舞厅跳舞时逝去，而不是在疗养院里去世。”

——哈佛大学医学院神经学教授雷萨·斯珀林

“我们能否查明暗物质是什么，取决于暗物质到底是什么。有些形式的暗物质通过与尚未侦测到的普通物质相互作用，可以被观测到。其他暗物质则可以通过它们对星系之类的结构的影响被观测到。我希望通过实验或观测，我们能有更深入的了解。但不能保证一定可以。”

——哈佛大学科学教授丽莎·蓝道尔

“1995年，我给一家杂志写了一篇文章，探讨了人造胰腺技术、塑料材质的人体组织（比如人造皮肤）以及让盲人重获光明的电子设备的发展。这些都将成为现实，或生产出真正的产品，或用于临床试验。未来几个世纪，很可能人体的每一片组织都能通过这些方式替换。人体组织的创造和再生（比如大脑中的组织）极其复杂，人类知之甚少，需要进行大量的研究。不过，希望这个领域的研究能进展得足够迅速以帮助治愈帕金森症这样的脑部疾病。”

——麻省理工学院教授罗伯特·兰格

“情绪涉及生物化学和电子信号，这些信号到达人体的每一个器官，让比如紧张的情绪影响我们的身心健康。可穿戴技术让我们得以对较长时间内的这些信号的模式加以量化。今后十年，可穿戴设备能相当于我们个人化的健康晴雨表：根据您最近的压力、睡眠和社交情绪活动，下周您的健康和幸福概率增大80%。不过与天气预报不同的是，智能穿戴设备也能识别我们可能选择改变的模式，以减少有害的‘暴风雨事件：比如，每晚睡眠时间增至九小时或更长，保持现有的中低度压力，以使之后四天生病的可能性降低60%。未来20年，可穿戴设备及其衍生的分析方法能显著减少精神疾病和神经疾病。”

——麻省理工学院媒体实验室情感计算研究组创始人兼主任罗莎琳德·皮卡德

1. envisage [?n?v?z?d?] vt. 设想，想像

2. cyborg [?sa?b??ɡ] n. 赛伯格，即人类和机械结合形成的半机器人。

3. posthuman：后人类，利用现代科技，结合最新理念和审美意识对人类个体进行部分地人工设计、技术模拟和技术构建从而形成的

“人工人”。

4. extraterrestrial [?ekstr?t??restri?l] adj. 地球外的

5. Jupiters moon Europa and Saturns moon Titan：木星的第二颗已知卫星欧罗巴（木卫二）和土星的卫星泰坦星（土卫六）

6. Phoenix：美国“凤凰号”火星探测器，2008年5月着陆火星北极。“凤凰号”在火星上挖到了冰冻水并探测到来自云层的降雪，从而证实了火星的确存在水。

7. Curiosity rover：“好奇号”火星探测器，2012年8月登陆火星表面，探寻火星上的生命元素。

8. Biosphere 2：生物圈2号，建于美国亚利桑那州沙漠中的一座微型人工生态循环系统，为了和生物圈1号（地球本身）区别而得此名。

9. stack the deck：暗中布局、策划

10. Alzheimer：阿尔茨海默病，一种临床上体现为记忆障碍、失语、执行功能障碍的疾病。