China-Japan-US Relations in the Grand Chessboard of Chinese Diplomacy: an Analysis Based on System Theory

FEnG ZHAokUEIHonorary Academician of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Research Fellow， Institute of Japanese Studies，Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

China-Japan-US Relations in the Grand Chessboard of Chinese Diplomacy: an Analysis Based on System Theory

FEnG ZHAokUEI
Honorary Academician of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Research Fellow， Institute of Japanese Studies，Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

In viewing concrete issues that continue to occur in China-Japan relationson a strategic plane， it is necessary not only to look at things and deal with them one by one but also to examine China-Japan relations and even China-Japan-US relations as a system and to think in-depth of what distortion and disorder have happened to China-Japan relations even China-Japan-US relations.

SYsTEMIc DIsToRTIon AnD DIsoRDER In CHInA-JAPAn-RELATIons

According to the Western theory of international politics， it is necessary for the world system to have a leader，which comes out of a global war and meets the necessary qualification of sea power. Since the 15th century， there have emerged and re-emerged three main roles in the world system， that is， the leader， the challenger and the groups of supporter countries. Here，for the time being， we may call the leader A， the challenger B， and the supporters in groups of countries C. A so-called law of history goes that B challenges A， and that causes destruction of both sides and results in the fact that it is not B but a leading country among C that replaces A or， in case replacement does not happen yet， is greatly benefited and takes the opportunity to rise.

What does this historical law have to do with today's China-Japan relations？ Since the 1990s， as the national strength of Russia is weakened with disintegration of the Soviet Union， B has no longer had the strength to challenge A. With rapid development of its economy， China has gradually been seen by the US as the challenger instead of the Soviet Union， that is， China has passively become B， the challenger. To say so is because China does not intend to replace the Soviet Union to be a new challenger to A， the leader. When China's GDP happened to surpass that of Japan in 2010， a “new ABC triangle” that replaces the “old ABC triangle” has since taken shape gradually with the US remaining A， China being B and Japan and other Western allies of the US and even a small number of Southeast Asian countries being C.

It is obvious that there are serious systemic distortion and disorder in such a being of the international relations. As China sticks to peaceful rise and has no intent whatsoever to challenge the US hegemony， China does not want to be a new B， the challenger. However， in the eye of the US， no matter whether China has the intention to be its challenger， as far as China has the capacity to challenge it， the country is freeze-framed in the position of B.

In such a new ABC triangle， Japan clings to historical doctrinarism of rise and fall of major countries for the past centuries， believing that such a triangle of the leader， the challenger and the group of supporter countries still exists in today's world， and that the challenger gets the worst of it and the supporter gets the best of it.

Against the background of the world socialist movement suffering a major setback， the domestic politics in Japan has also undergone a major change. The Socialist Party， that believes in democratic socialism， is opposed to US-Japan security system and has long promoted China-Japan friendship， has lost more and more supporters and sustained one defeat after another in elections. Its political map shrinking a great deal， the party was renamed Social Democratic Party and has since become one of the smallest parties in Japan's National Diet. Meanwhile， the Liberal Democratic Party， for a period falling to pieces， has rallied and once more become the largest party in the National Diet. This indicates that a systemic change in the international rela-tions has also led to a systemic change in domestic politics of Japan， the right being on the up and the left， down. With imbalance between the right and left， the country is increasingly tilted to the right.

Comparing China-Japan relations under the new ABC triangle with that under the old triangle， one can note that though under the old ABC triangle， there were historical issues between the two countries and disputes over the Diaoyu Islands， what at issue was not intensified to be irreconcilable contradictions. However， since the beginning of the new century， first，Prime Minister Koizumi's visit to the Yasukuni Shrine led to political coldness in contrast to economic warmth in China-Japan relations， and then in September 2010 a China-Japanese collision at sea happened. In September 2013， the Japanese Government's“purchase” the Diaoyu Islands aroused strong opposition from China， China-Japan sovereignty dispute over the Diaoyu Islands getting heated up fast. In December 2013， Prime Minister Abe visited the Yasukuni Shrine. As he plays the “leading role”， historical revisionism has become a strong adverse current in Japanese politics and continued to offend the historical feelings of the general public in its East Asian neighbors. With the overlapping issues of practical interest and historical issues， tensions grow in China-Japan relations， getting into the dangerous position that a conflict can be sparked accidentally.

One may ask why similar historical issues and territorial disputes had not led to tensions or a situation of antagonism whereas since 2010， the historical issues and territorial disputes has been heated up rapidly， and in the international community， there are comments like that “it will not be surprising if a war break out tomorrow between China and Japan”. One cannot but think about the systemic variation in major-countries relations behind the concrete issues between China and Japan， that is， under the old ABC triangle the inherent contradictions appear to be more relaxed whereas under the new ABC triangle， they appear to be extremely incisive.

STRATEGIc GUIDAncE In CoRREcTInG SYsTEMIc DIsToRTIon AnD DIsoRDER In CHInA-JAPAn-US RELATIons

How can systemic distortion and disorder in China-Japan-US relations be corrected？ This， of course， is an item of“common work” between China， Japan and the US， but the question is how to urge Japan and the US to be willing to join China in “common work”. In essence， China-Japan relations and China-US relations are a kind of relations of strategic contest. Externally，it is the contest for parties to strive for the best possible strategic position in the international pattern in order to achieve the objectives of respective grand strategies， and internally， it is the contest for parties to enhance respective soft and hard power through deepening reform and overcoming bottlenecks， shortfalls and difficult issues.

Since China-Japan relations and China-US relations are relations of strategic contest， it is necessary to differentiate contest on tactical plane from that on strategic plane， always maintaining the profile of strategic contest being higher than tactical one. In the first half of 2016， it is necessary in Japan policy to coordinate the work between foreign affairs， economic， military and cultural departments so that all actions toward Japan will center on not to help Abe to make gains in July Senate elections， and to be on guard against long-term issues standing in the way of solutions to emergent issues.

The right-wing conservative Liberal Democratic Party， once disintegrated，has regained strength and become the biggest party of the Diet. The picture shows on January 22， 2016，in the Lower House the opposition party members walk out in resentment against Japan's economy minister Akira Amari who has been exposed as a bribe-taker.

In face of complicated international situation and a neighborhood security situation that is likely to become more severe after US general elections of 2016， it is necessary for China， first of all， to move more steadily on its course towards national objectives and meanwhile， in face of the US pushing for its rebalancing strategy for the Asia-Pacific， to steady Japan， urging it make less troubles and to prevent itfrom interfering and even once again disrupting China's process of modernization. Only by moving more steadily and making fewer mistakes in strategic contest with the US and Japan can China enhance its soft and hard power and persevere in peaceful rise with accumulated practical actionsboth in word and in deed. In very outraging areas of international relations， it is necessary for China to prevent itself from being outraged and making hasty moves because of rage， and to prevent itself from making strategic misjudgment due to anger， rage and hatred.

It is necessary to classify “core interest”， that is， at least to distinguish“top or primary core interest” from“secondary core interest” and to be prudent so that the former will not be sacrificed or neglected for the latter. China should persevere in pursuing a foreign policy that is truly based on its national interest and based on the concept of “community of common destiny of mankind” as called for by President Xi Jinping， in carrying out“strategic contest” on just grounds，to our advantage and with restraint against the US and Japan， and in building a new model of major-country relationship with the US featuring no conflict and no antagonism， which， in the context of this essay， is to truly reconfirm and consolidate it as the foundation of China-US strategic consensus and mutual trust that China will not be B and the US does not take China for B. It is necessary to establish the construction of a new model of majorcountry relationship with the US as“priority among priorities” of China's diplomatic work and to take it for national interest to maintain a stable neighborhood environment， that is，national interest essential to completing the construction of a moderately affluent society in an all-round way， to achieving the two centennial goals and to realizing a better livelihood for the people. It is also necessary for China to give considerations to both traditional and non-traditional security issues， enhancing cooperation with the US and Japan in meeting the Korean nuclear crisis and in addressing such nontraditional security issues like climate change， environmental pollution and counter-terrorism， and to enhance relations and ties with the two countries through cooperation in non-traditional security issues. The process of making moderate strategic efforts is， in its own right， Chinese “homework” in urging the US and Japan to join in “common work” to continuously correct systemic distortion and disorder in China-Japan-US relations.

A US strategic report once pointed out that the essence of the so-called US-Japan alliance is to deny China's use of Japan and keep it to itself to use Japan. Since the end of the World War II， the US has paid great attention to preventing Japan from leaning to China and being used by China. Thus，the US signed with Japan an agreement for military alliance as far back as in 1951 in order to guarantee that Japan remains a breakwater against Communist forces. However， the Chinese leadership， through sophisticated diplomatic skills， urged the Japanese leaders to take bold steps across the“mine field” set up by the US against getting close to China， resulting in the normalization of relations between the two countries. However， the US had already laid a landmine very effective in disrupting China-Japan relations， the issue of the Diaoyu Islands. As the old ABC triangle was being replaced by the new ABC triangle， Chinese use of Japan progressively contracted whereas US use of Japan kept expanding. At the same time， some scholars believe that as China has overtaken Japan in GDP， Japan is “of little use” to China. Some of the researchers do not seem to know why the US， more advanced in science and technology than China，has accelerated its use of Japan. They seem to take little note of the fact that Japan's export of technology amounted to US$36.832 billion in 2014， taking the second place in the world， second only to the US， the figure for China in the same year was merely US$ 676 million， taking 21stplace in the world. Japan's technological export is 54.4 times as much as that of China. Development is the source of enhancing comprehensive national strength， and on development issue， even under the new ABC triangle， China should carry forward the successful Japan policy under the old ABC triangle in checking，balancing and using Japan.