Transition of International System and China’s Strategic Choice

TANG YoNGsHENGProfessor， Department of Strategic Studies， PLA National Defence University



Transition of International System and China’s Strategic Choice

TANG YoNGsHENG
Professor， Department of Strategic Studies， PLA National Defence University

On January 16， 2016， Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the unveiling ceremony of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and delivered a speech.

At present， the international situation is at change. The international system undergoes profound transition. Great changes are happening to structure of power pattern， essence of international relations and norms of global governance. Major events of overall and strategic bearings such as the Ukraine Crisis， the Chaos of the Middle East， the proliferation of terrorism and the slowdown in economic development all have had lasting effects on the international strategic situation. At the same time，together with continued strong development， China’s economic power and comprehensive national strength increase rapidly and relations and interaction with the external world become more profound and closer. For a period of time in the future， it will be a key stage of peaceful rise of China and its social transition， and also a key stage of profound readjustment of relations between China and the outside world. The reality calls for correct understanding and grasping the development trend of the transition of the international system. It is necessary to divert a favorable turn of events to the advantage of the country and to promote more positive strategic interaction with the outside world while seeking China’s development.

ENDEAvoRiNG To GRAsp THE TREND AND FEATUREs oF THE TRANsiTioN iN INTERNATioNAl SYsTEM

First， the international situation will continue to maintain overall peace and stability， but it is difficult to remove local war and conflicts， which may intensify in some of the regions. Under the interaction of multiple political， economic and security factors， instability and uncertainty in the development of international situation are on the rise. However， taken as a whole， it is difficult for the world either to move into an orderly orbit or to lose control. It is full of disturbance and contradictions but able to strike an overall balance. The trend for the hegemonic country to be on the decline and the new forces to be on the rise can hardly be reversed. The force for peace is on the increase to constrain war and maintain stability. Major strategic forces continue to realign and regroup， antagonism going hand in hand with dialogue， conflict mingling with cooperation， and jointly construct a complicated international network in which they interact， check and balance one another， effectively constraining the trend in the world for war and significantly increasing the reliability of peace.However， in international relations， power politics and neo-interventionism crop up now and then， and geo-contests remain active. The world is still in face of real and potential threats of war. Wars and armed conflicts happen frequently caused by factors like historical grievances， ethnic contradictions， religious antagonism and territorial disputes. Some of the countries fail in development， in addition there being deep-seated ethnic and religious contradictions. Stimulated by real interest， contradictions there tend to intensify and， in turn，lead to large-scale conflicts. Furthermore， intervention of external forces makes it difficult to stabilize situation in some of the regions. Behind the Ukraine Crisis， the Syrian Civil War and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict， the hand of major countries is， no doubt， one of the main factors.

Second，readjustment of balance of international forces accelerates， but subversive， fundamental change can hardly happen. Power shift arising from change in balance of power does not directly take the form of a current hegemonic power to be replace by a new one， but rather the dominance of traditional Western powers remains but is on the wane， unable to do as well as they wish in dealing with many of the world’s thorny issues，whereas the strength of non-Western emerging powers as a whole is on the increase， with increasing pluralization of international role. In the short run，the predicaments facing the United States at home and abroad cannot be fundamentally alleviated. The overall capability of the West in dominating the world tends to be on the decline. However， it is worth noting that a subversive， fundamental change on the international power pattern can hardly happen in the foreseeable future. The United States still occupies a superior position in power and influence， other countries not being able to hold a candle to its science and technology capacities and military strength. Its capability of strategic correction is not to be overlooked. The future international power pattern will be arranged in crisscross pattern of rise and decline，shift and replacement. The transition of the international system is in its own right a dynamic process.

Third， imbalance arising from systemic transition is increasingly visible， transition of economic system outpacing that of political and security system. In some of the aspects， phasic variation and transition occur in the international system， but readjustment in all areas is not synchronized， with obvious differentiation and imbalance. There are developing signs of shift in international economic and financial order from dominance of major Western powers to joint coordination between Western and non-Western countries and between the developed and developing countries. The world’s economic future depends on reshaping industrial structure， tapping economic growth points and carrying out a new round of reconstruction of international economic and financial order. However， substantial transition of the overall structure of international system and in high-political area of political and security field moves slowly. Traditional advantage of the West remains unmoved. Emerging countries basically do not have the rights of initiativefor alliance system and rule making. In this area， systemic transition is far slower than the economic area. On the one hand， substantial change has not happened to the logic of power politics， fundamental transition of the overall structure of the international system， and international political and security structure in particular， is too difficult to make progress. Though in recent years， the representation and say of the developing countries are on the increase， the capacity of discourse of developing countries remains limited， their power and capacity in international political agenda having yet to be lifted and the task of continuing to strive for and expand their rights remaining arduous. Changes in the world economic system are but superficialtrappings，and it is changes in the international political and security system that are the key substance.

Fourth， coexistence of competition and cooperation， conflicts and coordination will become the basic form of relations between countries， particularly major countries. Intertwining of competition and cooperation and of conflict and coordination will be the one definite plot line of the deepening and development of major-country relations， whose complicity being further in the limelight under the conditions of globalization and interdependency. In face of global challenges of financial turbulence， climate change，threats of terrorism， the converging points of interest between major countries are on the increase， and interdependence， mutual reliance on help of one another， coexistence and coprosperity between them will further develop. At the same time， competition between them is everywhere andso also are contradictions and conflicts between them on major issues. Transition of the international system is not replacement of one or the other， nor is it a systemic revolution of I-live-youdie. The special feature of interwoven interest determines that interaction between major countries in the future will not develop in a single direction according to the logic of contradiction and conflict， but rather there will be both cooperation and competition between them， both seeking dialogue and keeping vigilance， and both soliciting help of one another and checking and balancing one another. This is and shall be the normal of major-country relations at present and for a period of time in the future， and also a basic feature of the international order.

China’s development and transition are both an important viable of the evolution of the international system and one of the important outcome of the systemic transition. The readjustment of relations between China and the external world is at a key period of interaction on a profound level. As the transition of the international system brings about important opportunities，China is better conditioned to enlarge its international influence and， in turn， to advance positive strategic interaction with the external world. At the same time， China’s interest increases rapidly both domestically and in international relations. Internationalization of domestic security issues and internalization of international security issues will continue to develop in parallel， with increasing interaction and mutual penetration between internal and external troubles. The mutual accumulation and interaction of all kinds of contradictions and problems lead to unprecedented concentration of possibilities of turbulence and crisis， which is prominently represented in several aspects of complicated intertwining and mutual transformation of traditional and nontraditional security threats， enhanced linkage and overlapping between internal threats and external threats and increased security pressure arising from resurging development.

In order to effectively safeguard national security in a fast changing world， it is necessary for China to maintain the basic posture of positive defense in the long run. A positive defense foreign strategy is both as required by the nature of socialism with Chinese characteristics， appropriate for China’s development strategy and foreign policy， and fitting to the tide of the times in the development of today’s world. Furthermore， it comes down in one continuous line with the concept of peace and harmony in China’s traditional culture. To persevere in the strategic orientation of positive defense represents China’s political superiority and is also an important symbol of the soft power of the country. From long-term point of view， it further enhances the righteousness，propriety and legitimacy for China to uphold its national interest， helps resolve the ever increasing dilemma of rise and takes a road to security with Chinese characteristics.

All in all， for a period of time to come， as China’s national strength rises and its interaction with the outside world intensifies， its security pressure will be on the rise. Problems and contradictions arising from development will pile up. At the same time， the capacity and means to deal with the situation are relatively less than sufficient. As such， national security remains in a rather fragile “bottleneck period”，with threats tending to increase and overlap one another and thus the task of maintaining national security being more arduous. However， from a longterm perspective， as China gets across such a security “bottleneck period”，its overall security environment will markedly improve， with the negative effects arising from its rise being dispelled gradually. At the same， as China’s capacity of dealing with security threats increases， its national security will enter into a period of “stability”.

RiDiNG oN THE TREND iN EFFEc-TivElY SEcURiNG NATioNAl INTEREsT

Under the new conditions， in order to effectively maintain national security and achieve national interest， it is necessary to have more farsightedness and more inclusive strategic thinking so as to bring about great innovation on strategy.

First， it is necessary to scientifically locate China’s strategic position. China is both a major developing country and a major emerging country. In addition， China is a major socialist country that has actively and independently takes part in readjusting and shaping the international system， becoming an important force in pushing forward development and transition of the international system. However， it is difficult for the country to fundamentally change its relatively weak position in the short haul.The complicity in China’s strategic positioningmakes it imperative for the country to acquire essential capacity of adaptation and necessary flexibility in the international system. On the one hand， this complicity has brought about more severe challenges to the securing of national interest to the point that the country is moving from a world where adversaries are easily recognizable to one where it is difficult even to clearly define threats. On the other， it has also brought about more options and more room for maneu-verfor the development of relations between China and the outside world. Under this situation， the considerations for national security strategy should actively seek a method to take multiple approaches， apply multiple forces and resolve multiple threats in achieving multiple strategic objectivesso as to better secure national interest and advance coordinated development of relations between countries.

Second， it is necessary to insist that development and reform remain the basic approach to secure national interest.Since reform and open-up began， China has effectively secured and extended its national interest with reform and open-up. In face of the new situation and new tasks， reform and open-up remain a most fundamental approach to resolve security issues and secure national interest. In order to effectively uphold national security and interest and to achieve the great national renewal and make due contributions to the world peace and prosperity， ultimately it is necessary for China to size up the situation， to go with the trend in transition of the international system and ride on the tide of the development of the world history， diverting a favorable turn of events to its advantage， fostering strength， circumventing weaknesses and being positive and proactive.

Third， it is advisable to effectively prevent and deter hegemonic powers from getting into an all-round conflict of interest with China. Whereas China strengthens and consolidates its position in global strategic pattern， it is an important task in upholding the country’s national security and development to maintain the overall stability of major-country relations and，particularly， that of China-US relations through checking and balancing and cooperation and to prevent hegemonic powers from instigating a direct conflict with China. While strategically hedging against China， it is difficult for the US to contest China inwaysand approaches of zero-sum game. For the US， and Japanincluded， it is not only a strategic constraint but also a necessary choice of interest. Ultimately， the US cannot contain the rise of China. It is difficult for China to challenge the US hegemony and even less to seek to squeeze US forces out of the West Pacific. China should actively expand space for strategic cooperation with the US， effectively checking and balancing and endeavoring to clear up the hedging and extrusion of the US， doing its best to guide the development of China-US relations and shaping the overall framework of rational development of the bilateral ties. Both China and the US should act on the basis of clear understanding of the strategic bottom-line of each other and actively seek mutual strategic accommodation and mutual strategic trust through exercising crisis control，providing one another with strategic guarantee and consolidating and developing domestic foundation for China-US relations. Both countries should strengthen multi-area and multi-level strategic coordination mechanisms and explore effective ways to avoid falling into strategic dilemma.

Fourth， it is advisable to give full play to geo-political advantage and to build on neighborhood strategic support.It is unlikely for the countries in the region in territorial disputes with China to start large-scale military conflicts owing to considerations of benefit-risk balance and of their own capacity. As long as China makes proper policy， sticks to the basic direction of peaceful development and strengthens cooperation， ill adaptation of neighboring countries to the readjustment of power structure will be offset and dispelled by growing influence of the country. There are conditions for China to continue to maintain a relatively stable neighborhood environment and to gain time and conditions for its further development. In building on the neighborhood， it is necessary for China to continue to accumulate and bring into full play its geo-political advantage of being a core country of Asia and to comprehensively apply economic， political， diplomatic and military means， increasing its exertion of building on the neighborhood， expanding its influence on the neighboring countries， building on extensive security support and resolving to the maximum external security pressure coming from the increase in its comprehensive national strength. It is necessary for the country to continue to accumulate and advance benign interaction between it and its neighbors，to endeavor to become a leading force of regional security and to make still greater contributions to regional security and prosperity.

Fifth， it is advisable for China to ride on the tide in the international system and effectively security national interest. The changing international situation is a challenge and even more so an opportunity for a rapidly developing China， as complex international relations are more favorable for the emerging power to defuse hedging measures against it and to avoid becoming a target for constraint by traditional power politics. It is necessary to set store by the pulling effects of common interest and fully utilize the complicity of interest relations between countries in handling relations with concerned countries， especially relations with major countries. In particular， the focus should be balancing the US， constructing a framework for relatively stable major-country relations， featured by mutual check and balance， mutually soliciting each other’s help and mutual coordination，defusing to the maximum external pressure arising from China’s rise. It is imperative not to take the beaten track of confronting status quo power，not to take the direct line for quick success and instant benefits， but rather to be brave in taking up greater international responsibilities， all being important issues in face of China’s rapid development. At the same time， it is also necessary to exert more efforts in advancing domestic social transition，continue to improve social structure and provide the country with inherent driving force for sustainable development， which serves as the premise and foundation for the country to stand tall in the world and exert international influence. This is a proper meaning of innovation on strategy.