Security Situation in China’s Neighboring Regions: New Changes

ZHU FENGDirector， School of International Relations， Nanjing University



Security Situation in China’s Neighboring Regions: New Changes

ZHU FENG
Director， School of International Relations， Nanjing University

REcENT DEvElopMENT oF SE-cURiTY STRUcTURE iN EAsT AsiA REGioN: AlliANcE PoliTics HAs ENTERED A NEW STRATEGic Ac-TivE STAGE

Since the end of the Cold War in 1991， the East Asia Region has witnessed quite a number of changes in security situation. However， there have been no decisive changes in regional security order， power distribution or the strategic choices of major states in the region. The Obama Administration announced the “Asia Pacific Rebalancing” Strategy， which emphasized that the focus of the US foreign affairs would be turned from the Europe and Middle East to “the Asia Pacific region”. The “Asia Pacific Rebalancing” Strategy is based on three pillars， which are to strengthen the US military presence and cooperation with its allies， to advance the “Trans-Pacific Partnership” （TPP） aimed at seizing back the economic and trade dominant power in Asia Pacific Region as well as to facilitate the regional multilateralism centered around the policy coordination and cooperation with its allies， security partners and friendly countries. The Obama Administration’s “Asia Pacific Rebalancing”Strategy served as the turning point of the changing of East Asian security structure.

The US “Asia Pacific Rebalancing”Strategy ran across the Chinese Government’s foreign policy of “working hard for a better future” adopted after the CPC’s 18th National Congress. Both of them were formulated under the influence of their respective domestic factors and the international ones in the process of East Asia security as well as the practical need of their respective strategic readjustment. The collision between the US “Rebalancing” Strategy and China’s “working hard for a better future” is not only a result of the structural development of East Asia security since 2012， but also the cause of the continued significant changes that will happen in regional security. The hotspot controversial issues in East Asia are becoming more and more influential in the region.

Along with the upgrading of the confrontation between China and Japan over the Diaoyu Islands in East China Sea， Japan is well aware that it is impossible to antagonize China’s rising military strength all by its own. Therefore， Japan hopes that it could work together with the US in containing China through enhancing the alliance and the military cooperation in Asia Pacific Region with the US as well as being more active in Asia Pacific security issue. The Abe regime on the one hand adopts a tough policy of “norecognition， no-acceptance and no-negotiation” on the Diaoyu Islands issue，and on the other hand， substantially strengthens its alliance with the US，expands its diplomatic and strategic cooperation with the US allies in the region， advocates the so-call “valuesoriented diplomacy”， fights against China for the influential power in ASEAN and explicitly adopts a policy of “containing China” by drawing to its own side the various forces both inside and outside of the region. The Abe regime boosts its hostile China policy as a “positive pacifism”， which not only serves the US strategic interest in East Asia， but also a significant advancement of the US “Asia Pacific Rebalancing” Strategy. It has also become Obama’s basic factors in advocating the “Rebalancing” Strategy to keep a closer alliance with Japan，encourage the Abe regime to further break the restriction of Japan’s peace constitution over Japan’s role in regional security and its responsibility as an ally. As an immediate result of the US adoption of the “Asia Pacific Rebalancing” and the all-round docking of the Abe Administration’s diplomatic and security policy with the US， the US-Japan alliance started to play a role of expansive diplomatic， security and defense in Asia Pacific Region. With the joint effort of the US and Japan as an alliance， the military alliance and security partnership with the US as the core in Asia Pacific Region have been further strengthen， and the “alliance politics” in East Asia has reached a historical new high ever since the end of the Cold War.

As an important ally of the US in Asia Pacific Region， Australia has positively supported the US in its returning back to Asia Pacific. The two states signed a new agreement on defense cooperation in August 2014， according to which， the number of the US station troops in the Port Darwin Base will be doubled by 2017. Moreover， the two states will continue with their efforts to strengthening the bilateral military cooperation and enhance the US military presence in Australia in the next two and half decades. The signature of the agreement indicates that Australia has made a significant strategic choice，and later on the US military base in Port Darwin will probably become the second “Guam” in Asia Pacific Region. The US enhancement of its station troops in Port Darwin not only helps to consolidate the US-Australia alliance， but also gives the US an effective bargaining chip in the potential conflicts in South China Sea Region. Compared with the US military bases in Japan and ROK， Port Darwin is closer to South China Sea as well as Southeast Asia. Therefore， the US will be able to quickly send its military forces to South China Sea area once tensions break out in that area. At the same time， Japan and Australia are also enhancing the bilateral military cooperation aimed at advancing to an alliance， which not only meets the US requirement of strengthening the military cooperation among its allies，but also helps to promote the building of the “coalition of democratic marine states” among the US， Japan， Australia and India proposed by the Japanese Prime Minister Abe.

The terrorist attack happened on January 14， 2016 in Jakarta， the capital city of Indonesia reveals that“IS” has penetrated its influence into the East Asian society.

India， though not an ally of the US，has been pursuing a dominant influence power on South Asia continent as well as the Indian Ocean area. With enthusiastic efforts of “East-Oriented Policy”， India is intended to contain China’s expanding presence and interests in the Indian Ocean and at the same time uplift its own position as a major power. Therefore， India has a strong interest in strengthening the military and defense cooperation with the US and Japan. During Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Japan in March 2015， the two countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Defense Cooperation， which allows the two countries to carry out “2+2” dialogues of foreign ministers and defense ministers between both sides， strengthen the bilateral cooperation on maritime training， military exercise and fighting against pirates， and advancing the cooperation between the two countries in defense technologies. India welcomes the concept of the “India Pacific Region”， and is ready to be committed to building the “India Pacific Strategy”which will allow it to play a more strategic role. India is even considering the project of a joint cruising in South China Sea with the US.

The “Asia Pacific Rebalancing”Strategy of the Obama Administration is aimed at forming a “volunteer alliance” over the regional controversial issues based on the US allies and security partners by uniting all countries that have sovereign and security disputes with China and making use of the so-called most reliable will and power to “contain China” in Asia Pacific Region. That is the most recent development of the “alliance politics”in Asia Pacific Region.

AlliANcE PoliTics iN AsiA PA-ciFic REGioN: PRiMARY CAUsE oF TENsioNs iN SoUTH CHiNA SEA

The US aggressive returning to Asia Pacific not only gained the assistance of Japan， Australia and other traditional allies， but also got support of southeast countries like the Philippines and Viet Nam that have fierce disputes with China over South China Sea. Recently， the US and Japanese military and defense cooperation with the Philippines and Viet Nam is further expanding. The Philippines reached an agreement with the US on March 18，2016that allows the US to use five military bases in the Philippines， one of which is located on the Palawan Island close to the Nansha Islands. In the coming April， the Philippines and the US will have the annual joint military exercise. At the same time， the Japan-Philippines and Japan-Viet Nam military and defense cooperation has seen constant warming-up. Not long after 2015 when Japan declared to provide the Philippines and Viet Nam with sea patrol boats， Japan and the Philippines signed the first cooperation agreement on military equipment on February 28， 2016. According to the agreement， Japan will rent five TC-70 aircrafts to the Philippines to assist the latter’s spying and patrolling in the South China Sea. On March 21， the submarine of Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force paid its first visit in 15 years to the Subic Bay of the Philippines for a joint military exercise. When he attended the inauguration ceremony of the Cam Ranh Bay International Port on March8， 2016，President Truong Tan Sang of the Viet Nam declared that the Port would be open the “international ships and boats”. Japan’s navy ships soon visited the Cam Ranh Bay. Viet Nam also extended invitation to India and Russia for developing the natural resources in the South China Sea. It bought precision-guided rockets from Israel for the purpose of enhancing the defense of the illegally occupied islands and islets in the South China Sea.

The South China Sea policy development of Indonesia and Malaysia is worth same concerns. The Minister of Security Affairs LuhutPandjaitan said on November 11， 2015 that China’s Nine Dash Line in the South China Sea was“illegitimate”. Indonesia Minister of Defense Ryamizard Ryacuduexpressed on February 24， 2016 that the stationed troops on the Natuna Islands would be doubled to 4000 for guarding against“the threat from the North”. Indonesia is not the only one that changed all of a sudden to criticize China. Malaysia is another one. Minister of Defense Hishammuddin Hussein said on March 15， 2016 that Malaysia on its own was not capable of preventing China from its action， so it would discuss with Australia， the Philippines and Viet Nam on the South China Sea issue. On March 21， Indonesia Minister of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Susi Pudjiastuti held a special media conference to openly criticize China’s law enforcement in the waters close to the Natuna Islands. Indonesia Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi called in China’s Minister-Counsellor in Jakarta Sun Weide and handed in a note of protest on the recent fishery conflicts between the two countries. Though Indonesia had detained Chinese fish men for manytimes， this was the first time that it uplifted the conflicts to the diplomatic level.

It’s quite normal that there are some disputes over the maritime interests in the South China Sea between China and coastal countries as well as the claimant countries of the sovereignty of the South China Sea. For instance，China clearly declared that the Natuna Islands close to the Nine Dash Line belong to Indonesia. However， due to the indistinctness of the Nine Dash Line， there indeed exists overlap of the waters within the Nine Dash Line and the special economic zone on the Natuna Islands. In order to suppress China on its interests in the South China Sea， the US makes big fanfares over China’s building of islands and inlets in the South China Sea and incites and encourages the controversial countries to attack China frequently. Meanwhile， in the name of free navigating， the US sent its warships into the waters close to China’s Zhubi Inlet and the Zhongjian Island of the Xisha Islands on October 27， 2015 and January 30， 2016 respectively. The US “B-52”Strategic Bombers have flew over the islands and inlets of the South China Sea， provoking China’s sovereignty and security， and bolstering and supporting the Philippines and Viet Nam. In March 2016， the US sent its aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis （CVN 74）into the South China Sea area to make an open show of force. During their frequent visits to China， the US Secretary of Defense Carter and the US Pacific Commander Harris accused China of attempting to “change the status quo” about the South China Sea. They claimed that China was trying to pursue a dominant role in East Asia， and discredited China’s necessary yet limited defense infrastructure on the islands and inlets in the South China Sea as being carrying forward the “militarization of the South China Sea”. However， it was indeed the US move for maintaining its air and navy advantages in West Pacific and for muscle show in the South China Sea that caused the heating-up of the South China Sea tensions.

Along with the deadlock and deterioration of the disputes over the South China Sea， the East China Sea as well as the Korea nuclear issue， a new wave of diplomatic， security and strategic restructuring featuring “pro-US and being wary of China” was emerging. The geopolitical pattern in East Asia was witnessing an “alignment”tendency led by “topics” instead of merely by “states”. As a result， the US not only took the opportunity to play a dominant role in strengthening the regional security order and won sympathy in domestic politics for increasing military budget by propagating “China Threat”， but also instigated and condoned the countries with territory disputes and security competition against China to adopt a balancing and even antagonizing attitude toward China，with purpose of constantly squeezing China’s diplomatic， economic and strategic space in Asia Pacific region.

STABiliZiNG SEcURiTY SiTUATioN iN CHiNA’s NEiGHBoRiNG AREA:NEW THiNkiNG AND NEW METHoDs NEEDED

A “volunteer alliance” led by the thinking of “counterbalancing China”forged by the US and Japan is taking shape. Against such a background，China needs new thinking and new methods for safeguarding the security in its neighboring area.

First of all， we should strengthen the cooperation with Southeast countries in non-conventional security field and raise the capacity building of the countries， societies and enterprises for jointly tackling non-conventional security problem. The process of building an Asia Pacific Community of Common Interests， Common Responsibilities and Common Destiny advocated by China will be speeded up by taking advantage of deepening cooperation on non-conventional security network. Faced by the increasingly serious antiterror situation and non-conventional security challenges in East Asia， China could help the Southeast Asian countries to set up anti-terror coordination centers for exchanging experience and carrying out anti-terror exercise. In addition， China should also enhance cooperation with Southeast Asian countries in the fields of cross-border crimes， disaster relief and human trafficking.

Secondly， China should pay close attention to the changes brought about by the domestic election politics in the US， Viet Nam and the Philippines， and formulate relevant policies and countermeasures based on accurate， sober and objective judgment and understanding. China should look ahead by strengthening its long-term objective，accurate and timely following and understanding of the domestic political and social matters in Southeast Asian countries as well as enhancing its links and connections with various political and social forces within Southeast Asian countries， so as to avoid its overdependence on the government for developing bilateral relations and its lack of in-depth political and social influence on these countries.

Thirdly， concerning the safeguarding of rights and stability in the South China Sea， China should not only maintain a firm stance， but also enhance its action for safeguarding rights and stability with diversified measures on all frontlines. China needs to show her strategic resolution in advancing the constructive progress of achieving stability and resolving disputes between China and ASEAN states over the South China Sea issue， finding a solution covering the interests of all parties and oriented to the future and control the disputes through building a cooperation mechanism among the coastal states of the South China Sea. In addition to building necessary defense forces on the islands and inlets in the South China Sea， China gains understanding and respect of her neighboring countries or even other countries for her action of safeguarding rights and stability，which of course will serve as an effective countermeasure against the US“rebalancing strategy”.