中国光伏产业国内外市场研究以及未来发展的机遇与挑战

黎民浩

摘 要：中国光伏产业近年来经历了一系列的低迷，但是从2015年开始产业发展有了显著的提高。光伏产业发展转变的有两个主要的原因。首先，国际油价的持续下滑以及投资者对全球煤炭行业等传统能源的投资趋于谨慎。第二，科学技术的进步，特别是光伏产业的新技术发展给中国的光伏产业带来了难得的机遇。本文将主要阐述中国光伏产业在国内市场以及国际市场的发展现状和前景，以及在欧盟与美国对中国光伏产品进行“反倾销与反补贴”的“双反”调查之后，中国光伏产业的未来规划。此外，近年来愈发严重的空气污染使得中国对于清洁能源的需求大幅度上升，这也给太阳能光伏产业一个领导新能源发展与变革的机会。我们将关注中国光伏产业如何来把握机遇迎接挑战。

关键词：发展；国内市场与国际市场；机遇与挑战

一、Development

The Chinese photovotaic industry developments in 2015 saw both an increase in profitability and rising stock market values. The latter reflected an increased expectation of continued improvement in industry performance. The first half of 2015， shipments of Chinese photovotaic companies are on the up trend， the profitability has been greatly improved， the majority of Chinese photovotaic companies achieved profitability. in the first and second quarter of 2015 ， there are seven Photovotaic companies announced their shipments data， which is RENE Sola（昱辉）， HANWHA（韩华）， YINGLI（英利）， JA Solar（晶澳）， Canadian Solar（阿特斯）， JINKO（晶科）， TRINA Solar（天合光能）. Currently， these seven companies are the best seven companies in Chinese Photovotaic development. The data they published can represent a certain extent Chinas development of photovotaic industry in 2015.

As we can see， In the first half of 2015. Trina shipments grew 20%， JINKO shipments grew 16%， HANWHA shipments grew 16%， JA Solar shipments grew 12%. RENE Sola， Canadian Solar， YINGLI decreased by 12.7%， 17% ， 3%， respectively. Compared to 2014， HANWHA， JINKO， Canadian Solar， TRINA Solar， JA Solar shipments grew 81%， 38%， 32%， 30.6% and 16%， respectively. RENE Sola and YINGLI decreased 13.5% and 18% compare with 2014.

In the Chinese A-share stock market， shares of photovotaic has four listed companies in a loss； nine listed companies net profit are declined， More noteworthy is that in the first half of 2015， total revenue of 22 listed companies， increased about 17% compared with last years 22.7 billion yuan. In second quarter of 2015， JINKOs gross profit rate reached to 21%（about 75 million US dollars）， which ranks the forefront of domestic and foreign enterprises. But YINGLIs gross profit rate has fallen to 10.35% in the first half of 2015， it leads to YINGLI attributable to ordinary shareholders in the first half profit is -961 million RMB. （about 150 million US dollars） Overall， Chinese photovotaic industry is in a process of steady improvement. Investors are optimistic about the future of the photovoltaic industry enterprise earnings reflects the companys confidence in the capital market outlook. In Chinese A-share stock market， the median level of the photovotaic business have 41times earnings， compared to other manufacturing industries， photovotaic industry have a greater advantage， which reflecting investor optimism about the future prospects of the photovoltaic industry.

From the situation of Chinese economic development， Chinese economic slowdown shows that China is transforming from investment-led economy to become economy consumer led economy. So as the Chinese photovotaic industry， not only exports， expand the domestic market and the government advocate photovoltaic applications. But even so， in the first half of 2015， exports in Chinese photovotaic grew. Because the global demand still rising， and China supplies more than 70% of global photovotaic production capacity. In the second half of 2015， Chinas photovoltaic industry will show a steady upward trend， but the development of photovotaic industry still facing many problems， including a relative weakness in the competitiveness of manufacturing， enterprises financial difficulties. In the short run， the photovoltaic industry will remain in an adjustment phase， as corporate mergers and acquisitions and the integration of resources will be accelerated. Competitive enterprises with the advantages of technology， capital， management， and other aspects of the brand will further seize market opportunities.

二、Anti-dumping and Countervailing

The international financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis， has led to a sharp reduction in the global photovotaic market demand and a severe slowdown in the pace of development of photovoltaic industry.In October 2011， the United States launched an investigation into the case for considering Anti-dumping and countervailing measures against Chinese photovotaic industry. At this point， Chinese photovotaic industry has entered a “winter period” as its production slows down. The Chinese photovotaic production mode is raw materials （include multicrystalline and silicon solar panels） and sales are both in foreign markets， while processing and production are in the Chinese mainland， so that the photovotaic company can take advantage of cheap labor to generate its competitive advantages. Reducing demand in European and American photovotaic market and the “double reverse” investigation has brought the Chinese photovoltaic industry to examine the weakness of it score competitiveness， as reflected in its excess production capacity， imbalance of the market distribution and other issues. It is important to analyze the influence of the “Anti-dumping and countervailing” investigation to development of Chinese photovotaic industry.

First of all， for the Chinese photovotaic companies in Europe and America “Anti-dumping and countervailing” investigation of photovoltaic products directly lead to a decline in exports， which caused huge losses to the Chinese enterprises. January 2015， China and the United States announced the second final junction photovoltaic dual case， the result will affect the export value of 2 billion to 3 billion U.S. dollars， and will affect hundreds of thousands of Chinese photovotaic manufacturing practitioners lives. In general， as this trade circumvention of Chinese exports is extremely unfavorable findings often impose high anti-dumping duties， some companies are likely to face closure and lay-offs.

Low cost is the main competitive advantage of Chinese photovotaic products （the current cost of large-scale photovotaic companies in China sales of photovotaic modules in the United States is about $ 0.75， the average price in US is $ 0.97）. Chinas photovotaic industry dependent on imports of raw materials， a large share of its sales is dependent on exports， overcapacity is a major problem in Chinas domestic market. Although the Chinese solar cell production has accounted for most of the international market， but it still more than 90% of products dependent on the international market， the largest market share is in Europe， its formation is highly external dependent. Chinese photovotaic industry by the United States of “Anti-dumping and countervailing” in 2011， its output increase significantly slowed. From 2010 to 2011， China photovotaic production increase of 9981MW， after “Anti-dumping and countervailing”， from 2011 to 2012 was 166MW， less than one sixtieth of the previous annual increase. Because of Chinas photovotaic products to enter the European market by Taiwan or other areas， and China is developing its own domestic photovoltaic applications market， therefore， in 2013 Chinas photovoltaic production on the rise again. But 2014 has led to a second wave of “Anti-dumping and countervailing” investigation， cutting off the third-party channels， so once again cause damage to the development of Chinas photovoltaic industry. In general， Chinas solar photovoltaic industry in the global solar industry chain middle-level manufacturing sectors. Manufacturing sectors due to the low investment， short construction period， low technology and capital threshold， the emergence of a large number of Photovotaic production enterprises was possible. However， since the United States and Europe continue to “Anti-dumping and countervailing” investigation， had the effect of promoting the continued expansion of Chinas domestic application market， while increasing the employment market for photovoltaic applications of solar energy photovoltaic industry.

三、International market

In recent years， the rapid development of China Photovotaic industry in the international market， not just in the US and European markets accounted for a significant market share. In fact， demand from the US and European markets has been weakening， and they have turned to trade protectionism to protect their domestic companies， “Anti-dumping and countervailing” investigation is the proof. Based on this situation， Chinas Photovotaic industry has also entered into the rest of the world， especially the Third World countries to seek opportunities.

（This Image is from Internet）

As we can see， world Solar energy distributed mainly in West Asia， the Middle East， Africa and Oceania， Moreover， most countries in these regions are developing countries of the Third World. They have tremendous economic development and Photovotaic markets.

四、Asia

Pakistan has been in the grip of severe energy shortages for many years with some rural areas left without power for up to 20 hours a day. There has been little local or foreign investment in the industrial sector because of the extensive power cuts， and a number of factories have had to close down. This is the first energy project under the US $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor， a key part of Chinas ‘new silk roads， linking the port at Gwadar in southern Pakistan with Kashgar in Chinas western region of Xinjiang. Pakistan has a large number of solar energy photovoltaic power generation， which can partially absorb the excess production capacity of Chinas Photovotaic sector.[7] The plant is located in Bahawalpur region Thar desert， it is Pakistans first and it is the worlds largest solar power plant.

五、Africa

Africa has large tracts of land that are not covered by the grid， which precisely provides a good opportunity for solar energy development in Africa. Due to the imperfections of the national grid， although many regions are still using traditional kerosene （African countries spend more than 10 billion US dollars on kerosene per year. Residents spent 10%-30% of disposable income on kerosene.）， but Solar energy has now become African countries choices. From the first chart of this article above we can see Solar energy is abundant in Africa， it is paradise of renewable energy.

From the Steven Sinofskys article “Africas Mobile-Sun Revolution”[8]， he believes that the development of the mobile communications business in Africa can greatly improve the living standards of the African people， alleviating poverty in Africa. He thinks the solar power combined with large-scale batteries will be the “grid” in developing markets in the near future.

“An amazing transformation is taking place， and that is the rise of solar. What we might see as an exotic or luxury form of power for hikers and backpackers， or something reasonably well-off people use to augment their home power， has become as common a sight as the water pump.”

In Sinofskys article， he thinks there were two factors has brought solar so quickly and cheaply to Africa people. First， China has been investing massively in solar technology， solar panels and solar-powered devices. That has brought choice and low prices， as one would expect. In seeking growth opportunities， Chinese companies are looking to the vast market opportunity in Africa， where people are still not connected to a grid. Theres a full supply chain of innovation， from the solar through to integrated appliances with batteries.

Second， China has a significant presence in many African countries， and is contributing a massive amount of support in dollars and people to build out more traditional infrastructure， particularly transportation. In fact， many Chinese immigrants in these countries on work projects become the first customers of some of these solar innovations.

Their first stop will be one of the biggest solar power stations on the continent in Garissa， Kenya. Chinese solar panel makers are set to supply the majority of the $140 million needed to build the power station， according to state-owned China Jiangxi Corporation for International Economic and Technical Cooperation， the deals coordinator. The move will give Chinese manufacturers a base of operation to expand their presence across Africa[9]. Kenya has a huge potential for power generation from solar energy resources. The government， of the last few years， has started taking initiatives to significantly boost solar power generation in the country， focusing on distributed as well as utility-scale solar power projects. The Kenyan solar park will generate up to 76 million kWh of electricity annually and provide power for about 350，000 people， half of Garissas population. Chinese solar companies “mired in debt and overcapacity are in great need to find alternative markets， as their biggest importer will probably buy less due to the duties，” Xinhuanet said. After China finishes building the Kenyan plant， Xinhuanet added， “Chinese solar panel makers may bulk up in Africa.”

六、Opportunities and Challenges

From 2011 to 2015， the recession in 2011 was indeed a great shock to the Chinese Photovotaic industry， It is obvious that China was already suffering the lowest profit in Photovotaic markets. As we can see， so far the Chinese Photovotaic industry looks like already came out of the shadow of the “Anti-dumping and Countervailing” investigation by USA and EU. I believe that investigation in fact helped Chinese Photovotaic enterprises in the self-adjustment， and there are many Photovotaic companies who have no capacity to effectively compete in international markets and were forced out of the market. Chinas Photovotaic industry is no longer blind pursuit of low prices and high yields， but began to improve their technological level， government subsidies will be gone sooner or later. A healthy industry growth should be independent of government subsidy and sustain on its own. So they hope to be able to create a strong international market competitiveness.

七、Conclusion

Solar energy will embrace its prime time in the near future. Chinas Photovotaic industry after overcoming a series of setbacks and difficulties， will start a new course of development. Huge international market and domestic market can make China a better development of the photovoltaic industry. There are many technology advances still going on. PV innovation is still a very active research area that attracts researchers all over the world to make progress in the technology advance.