基于委托代理模型的水利工程PPP项目供给问题

吴海燕,黄德春

(1.河海大学商学院,江苏 南京 211100; 2.江苏省“世界水谷”与水生态文明协同创新中心,江苏 南京 211100)



基于委托代理模型的水利工程PPP项目供给问题

吴海燕1,2,黄德春1,2

(1.河海大学商学院,江苏 南京 211100; 2.江苏省“世界水谷”与水生态文明协同创新中心,江苏 南京 211100)

为保证水利工程PPP项目供给量,在分析政府部门和私营机构博弈机理的基础上,构建基于非对称信息委托代理模型水利工程PPP项目供给激励机制,并求解得出最优供给量、政府部门和私营机构最大效用,提出提高私营机构努力水平、降低私营机构成本和私营机构风险规避程度等建议,为水利工程PPP项目的供给提供理论依据。

水利工程;PPP项目;供给侧改革;委托代理模型

随着《关于鼓励和引导社会资本参与重大水利工程建设运营的实施意见》等一系列国家政策的出台,PPP融资模式越来越广泛地被运用至水利工程项目中。在第十五届中国经济论坛“如何让PPP落地生根”的高端对话上,财政部政府和社会资本合作(PPP)中心副主任焦小平认为，“PPP是一种以供给侧改革为主、需求拉动为辅的体制机制创新”。2015年5月,国家发展和改革委员会确立了12个第一批水利工程PPP试点项目,投资近914.784亿元。2016年1月,水利部部长陈雷指出，“十三五”期间需围绕推进供给侧结构性改革,鼓励和引导社会资本,集中力量建设一批重大水利工程项目[1]。

包括水利工程PPP项目在内的公共产品的供给问题,国内外已有许多学者对此展开研究。Charles[2]最早以“脚投票”理论剖析了提高公共产品供给效率的途径,并提出提高公共产品供给效率应通过竞争的手段来实现。李艳芳等[3]指出农村公共文化产品及服务供给模式的缺陷是导致农村公共文化产品及服务供给失衡的主要原因,提出引入PPP模式不仅可以改善此现状,而且有助于促进文化产业的发展和推动新农村建设。叶晓甦等[4]基于重庆水务集团公私合作案例对我国城市水务供给行业公私合作体制进行探索,提出了明确政府定位、建设公私合作信息公开机制及合作竞争机制、构建合作结构等四方面的体制改革途径。许三虎[5]认为我国水利设施在面临市场失灵和政府失灵的双重困境下,应通过PPP模式建设水利设施,并且需要完善与PPP模式相关的法律法规,建立合理的风险分担机制,设置合理的价格体系,创新多元的监督管理制度。

当前委托代理模型的应用也日趋广泛。秦华等[6]从纵向公平偏好的视角研究了企业内部的委托代理关系和薪酬激励机制,并通过对委托代理模型的求解得出相应结论。薛耀瑄[7]利用非营利组织理论和博弈模型分析在多委托人情况下制度约束对民间环境保护组织绩效的影响。郑志强等[8]基于非对称信息委托代理模型对我国城市大型体育公共设施供给问题进行研究。

综合已有的研究可以看出,目前对水利工程PPP项目供给问题的研究较为缺乏,且大多研究采用定性分析。因此本文以水利工程PPP项目供给为研究对象,从政府部门和私营机构两个博弈主体入手,运用非对称信息委托代理模型对水利工程PPP项目的建设和运营进行定量分析,梳理出其供给的内在机理,为我国水利工程PPP项目的成功实施提供理论指导。

1 水利工程PPP项目供给困境与政府社会投资者间的博弈

水利工程PPP项目主要涉及政府部门和私营机构两大利益主体,利用委托代理模型分析水利工程PPP项目的供给,可将政府部门视为委托方,私营机构视为代理方,双方存在委托代理关系,两者目标并不一致。

在政府部门选择私营机构投资者,招投标阶段容易产生逆向选择问题。这主要是由于水利工程PPP项目具有施工标准高、技术性强、投资回收期长、风险发生频率高以及监督管理难等特点。以三峡工程为例,该工程具有防洪、发电、航运等巨大综合效益,主要由拦河大坝及泄水建筑物、水电站厂房、通航建筑物等组成,是一个大型的复杂水利工程,因此政府部门在选择社会投资者时,需要综合考察对方的技术水平、资本状况、财务结构、社会信誉等。但政府部门与私营机构之间的信息不对称使得政府部门并不能全面准确地掌握私营机构的真实情况,而私营机构的目的是中标,因而容易出现恶意竞争行为,造成前期招投标阶段产生优汰劣胜的结果。

在水利工程PPP项目建设期和运营期容易产生道德风险问题,这主要是由于政府部门和私营机构双方目标不一致。由于水利工程PPP项目具有外部性、公益性、基础性等特点,对居民生活具有重要意义,因此政府部门作为广大公众的代表,其最终目标是提高水利工程的供给效率,使得社会效益最大化;而私营机构盈利是其唯一目的,获取最大经济利益是其最终目标。因此,私营机构会采取一系列机会主义行为,如偷工减料、提高产品价格、减少项目日常维护费用、赶工期等不良手段降低建设成本、增加利润[9]。

在水利工程PPP项目中,政府部门和私营机构之间的合作容易受多重因素影响[10],因而不利于最大化社会效益的实现。依据委托代理理论,只有通过建立一种高效的激励约束机制——委托代理均衡合同,才能实现政府部门和私营机构两者利益的均衡,从而增加水利工程PPP项目的供给。

2 水利工程PPP项目供给激励机制

根据委托代理理论,对基于非对称信息委托代理模型的设计做如下假设[11]。

假设1:a表示水利工程PPP项目中私营机构一方所采取的某一行动,假设其为一维连续变量;b为自然状态的随机变量,且b～N(0,σ2) (σ2为随机变量方差),代表外生不确定因素。a和b共同决定私营机构对水利工程PPP项目的供给量Q(a,b),即

(1)

式中:k1为努力水平系数;k2为自然水平系数且E(Q)=k1a,Var(Q)=k22σ2,即私营机构的行为和努力水平系数决定水利工程PPP项目供给量的均值,自然水平系数和自然状态的随机变量决定其方差。

假设2:假设政府部门对私营机构采用固定收益与变动收益组合的激励合同,则

(2)

式中:A为私营机构的固定收益;k3为激励水平系数。政府是寻找能使自身效益最大化的目标P(Q)。假定私营机构努力的成本C(a)等价于货币成本,为简化运算,设C(a)=k4a2/2,k4为成本系数,k4越大,努力a带来的负效用越大。政府部门和私营机构的期望效用函数分别表示为Y1[Q-P(Q)]和Y2[P(Q)-C(a)]。

假设3:政府是风险中性的,其效用函数为Y1(w1),其中w1=Q-P(Q),为政府部门实际收入。假设私营机构的效用函数具有不变绝对规避风险的特征,即Y2=-eρw2,ρ表示绝对风险厌恶系数,w2为私营机构实际货币收入。

根据委托代理模型,政府风险中性时其期望效用等于期望收入,所以:

E[Y1(w1)]=E[Y1(Q-P(Q))]=-A+(1-k3)k1

(3)

此时,私营机构的实际收入为

(4)

则私营机构的风险成本为

(5)

私营机构的期望效用等于其确定性等价收入,为

(6)

假设w为私营机构的最低收入水平要求,在满足最优条件下,私营机构的参与约束可表示为

(7)

在政府部门和私营机构的委托代理关系中,双方存在信息不对称,即政府不能观察到私营机构的行为a和自然状态b,私营机构的趋利目标决定它总选择使自身期望效用最大的a,因此为求私营机构期望效用函数最大值即对期望效用求a的偏导:

(8)

因此,激励相容约束为

(9)

私营机构为实现最大效用付出k3k1/k4的努力,政府则通过私营机构效用最大化行为a来选择A和k3。政府的最大化效用表示为

(10)

将参与约束和激励相容约束代入式(10)得：

从而得出激励系数

(12)

式(12)为政府基于私营机构效用最大化前提下的最优激励系数。

由式(9)、(12)可推导出水利工程PPP项目最优供给量:

(13)

由式(13)可知,Q与k1成正比,与k4、ρ、k22、σ2成反比。由于k22、σ2并非人为因素可改变,所以Q取决于k1、k4和ρ。

将式(9)和式(12)代入式(6)可得私营机构最佳效用为

由式(14)可知,私营机构的最佳效用与k1成正比,与k4、ρ成反比。

同理,将式(9)和式(12)代入式(3)可得政府最佳效用为:

(15)

由式(15)可知,政府最佳效用与k1、ρ正相关,与k4负相关。

由上述分析可以看出,水利工程PPP项目中,政府部门和私营机构的最佳效用均与k1成正比,与k4成反比。不同的是增大风险规避程度可提高政府部门的最佳效用,而私营机构则刚好相反,它会因增大风险规避程度而遭受损失,同时导致政府信誉下降,在信息不对称的情况下政府为重建声誉所花的成本可能要远远超过短期所获利益,因此基于长远考虑政府部门违约是得不偿失的。

3 对策与建议

由于水利工程PPP项目的委托方和代理方之间信息不对称且双方目标不一致,因此容易产生逆向选择和道德风险问题,阻碍了水利工程PPP项目的供给,所以政府部门可根据水利工程PPP项目供给量来设计激励机制从而降低委托代理风险。根据基于非对称信息委托代理模型对水利工程PPP项目供给量的分析,以增加水利工程PPP项目供给量为目标,提出如下建议。

3.1 提高私营机构努力水平

提高私营机构努力水平,可增加水利工程PPP项目供给量,同时也能使私营机构和政府部门的效用增大。①需要提高民营企业对水利工程PPP项目的投资意愿和投资热情。虽然从2014年开始,随着一系列政策的出台,全国掀起了PPP热潮,但仅是各级政府充满热情,社会资本则依然冷静。2015年3月19日,民生证券研究院的一份研究报告显示,地方政府推出的16 000亿元PPP项目,仅有约2 100亿元已签约,占总额的1/8,很多项目无人问津[12]。因此,为扩大公益性较强的水利工程PPP项目的供给量,民营企业需要有较强的社会责任感,社会责任感越强,投资的意愿也就越强烈。②在后期水利工程PPP项目建设和运营中,私营机构需要严格按照合同要求执行,不可肆意违约。同时,政府也要建立健全监督机制,保证水利工程PPP项目的顺利实施和有效运营。虽然PPP模式在我国已有30多年的历史,但无论从理论还是实践上来看,我国PPP模式实施的质量均不高。为此,需建立专业监督为主、社会监督为辅的监督管理机制,既包括经营绩效评价,也包括社会效益评价,促进民营企业整体水平的提升。

3.2 降低私营机构成本

在水利工程PPP项目中,私营机构成本主要包括建设成本和运营成本。降低私营机构成本,有利于增加水利工程PPP项目供给量,也能提高私营机构和政府部门的效用。①政府部门应选择资金实力雄厚、经营水平良好和信用度高的企业。②私营企业应引进专业PPP人才,提高经营管理水平,使经营手段和经营策略推陈出新,从而规避风险,降低成本。③政府应适当增加对私营机构的财政补贴。一直以来,使社会资本收益性和水利工程PPP项目的公益性保持平衡都是较大难题。

一般情况下,政府在水利工程PPP项目招标过程中,为缓解财政压力,吸引私营机构参与竞标,会推出一系列优惠条件,如减少税收等以降低私营机构成本。

3.3 降低私营机构风险规避程度

降低私营机构风险规避程度可增加水利工程PPP项目供给量。由于私营机构效用和政府部门效用变化随ρ的变动方向不一致,政府部门效用会随着风险规避程度的增加而增加,这是因为政府由于违约可能会获取短期利益,但民营企业会因为承担较多风险而蒙受损失,政府信誉会因此而下降,最终得不偿失。因此需制定合理的风险分担方案以降低私营机构风险规避程度。为此,政府部门首先事前要认真规划研究,通过对水利项目的经济、社会和生态效益进行研究,以确定是否采取PPP模式;其次,在项目动工前,预测实施过程中可能出现的风险,并制定相应的解决措施,同时在施工过程中提高风险透明度;第三,政府部门与私营机构风险分配应遵循风险由最有能力和控制力一方承担的原则;最后,政府部门与私营机构在合作过程中应保持充分的交流与沟通,从而降低私营机构的风险规避程度,保障水利工程PPP项目供给量。

4 结 论

由于政府部门和私营机构双方信息不对称且目标不一致,容易导致水利工程PPP项目招投标阶段逆向选择和建设运营过程中产生道德风险,从而影响水利工程PPP项目供给量。在水利工程项目短缺的背景以及国内外学者已有研究的基础上,分析了水利工程PPP项目中政府部门与私营机构之间的博弈机理,以政府部门为委托方,私营机构为代理方,构建了基于信息不对称的工程PPP项目供给激励模型,得出水利工程PPP项目最优供给量、私营机构最大效用和政府部门最大效用,最后提出提高私营机构努力水平、降低私营机构成本、降低私营机构风险规避程度等增加水利工程PPP项目供给量的对策建议。

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Abstract: With the development of society and economy and the increase of population, the contradiction between flood safety and regional development is more and more obvious. However, the flood detention zone still plays an important role in the flood safety in short period. Based on the previous relocation compensation and resident suggestions in part of the representative regions in Huaihe River basin, the standard of temporary relocation during storage period of the flood detention zone and the guarantee mechanism of supply during its operation are preliminarily put forward in order to divert and store flood efficiently and to promote the sustainable development of regional society and economy.

Key words: flood detention zone; relocation compensation; guarantee mechanism

Urban water consumption and economic development: policy effect:Empirical analysis of 27 countries/

ZHAO Jinjin

(China Institute of Regulation Research, Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China)

The long-term relationship between per-capita urban water consumption and economic development is released, and the policy effect is analyzed. Based on the panel data regression model, the situations of the urban water consumption collected in 27 countries from 1960 to 2010 are investigated. It is demonstrated that the relationship between the per-capita urban water consumption and the per-capita economic development exhibits an N-shaped pattern, namely, with the development of economy, the per-capita urban water consumption shows a process of “increase first and then decrease”. When the economic development reaches higher level, the urban water consumption tends to be stable and has a bit increase. Following the environmental Kuznets curve, we name this relationship the Kuznets curve of water. Two types of water policies, the water efficiency policy and the water effectiveness policy, are distinguished. The regression results suggest that both the two water policies significantly influence the per-capita urban water consumption. However, the water effectiveness policy requires longer period to show positive results than the water efficiency policy. This finding is of great significance to the formulation and implementation of the relevant policies. The optimization of water resources may be achieved through the rational allocation of different policies by the government so as to realize their sustainable development.

Kuznets curve of water; urban water consumption; policy

Relationship between water infrastructure and economic development in Jiangsu Province:Empirical analysis based on panel data/

1, 2, MA Jun1, 2, 3

(1. Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2. Research Center of Water and Sustainable Development in Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 211100, China; 3. Institute of Technology Innovation and Economic Development, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: The influences of water conservancy infrastructure on the economic development in Jiangsu Province are investigated by use of the panel data model based on the statistical data of 13 cities in Jiangsu Province between 2004 and 2013. The results show that the water infrastructure is one of the important factors for the economic development. Further agricultural water conservancy infrastructure cannot bring positive promotion to the economy in Jiangsu Province. While the strengthening of water conservancy infrastructure associated with the industrialization and urbanization gives power to the economic development in Jiangsu Province. Because of different economic development levels, the influences of water conservancy infrastructure on the economic development in the southern, central and northern areas of Jiangsu Province are different.

Key words: Jiangsu Province; water infrastructure; panel data model; three major economic regions

Supply of water conservancy PPP projects based on principal-agent model/

WU Haiyan1, 2, HUANG Dechun1, 2

(1. Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2. Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of World Water Valley and Water Ecological Civilization, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: To guarantee the supply of water conservancy PPP projects, the incentive mechanism of water conservancy PPP projects is established based on the principal-agent model under asymmetrical facilities by analyzing the gaming between the governmental departments and the private sectors. Then the optimal supply and the maximum utilities of the government and the private sectors are derived. Finally, three suggestions, including raising the efforts, reducing costs and risks of the private sectors, are put forward so as to provide theoretical foundation for supply of water conservancy PPP projects.

Key words: water conservancy project; PPP project; reform of supply side; principal-agent model

Use efficiency of water resources in Jiangsu Province under perspective of new urbanization/

ZHGANG Fengze, SONG Min, DENG Yibin

(Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211000, China)

Abstract: With the advance of new urbanization, the problems of water shortage and water pollution have become increasingly prominent. A super logarithmic function model is established, and the water use efficiency in Jiangsu Province is calculated by using SFA. By selecting the indices of urbanization of population, social urbanization and industrial urbanization to represent the level of urbanization, the relationship between the use efficiency of water resources and the new urbanization in Jiangsu Province is analyzed based on the STIRPAT model. The conclusions are drawn as follows: (1) The results of water use efficiency of three regions are the highest in the central areas, the lowest in the southern areas and in the middle in the northern area of Jiangsu Province. (2) The urbanization level of population has the greatest impact on water use efficiency in Jiangsu Province. (3) The social urbanization level is negatively correlated with the utilization efficiency of water resources, and the impact of industrial urbanization level on water use efficiency is quite different in various areas.

Key words: new urbanization; use efficiency of water resource; urbanization of population; social urbanigation; industrial urbanigation; Jiangsu Province

Management system of water resource assets/

CHEN Jianming, ZHOU Xiaopei, YUAN Ruhua, ZHU Kaiye

(Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: The connotation of water resource asset and its management are introduced. Under the circumstance of water resource asset owned by the national government of China, the use right of the management system of water resource asset is particularly studied. On the basis of the theories and practices of management of natural resource asset, the management system and institutional framework of water resource asset are designed and put forward. The comprehensive design of management system of water resource management may provide guidance and support for the construction of water right market and compiling of balance sheet of water resource asset.

Key words: water resource asset; management; management system; institutional framework

Application of value engineering in dredging Bengbu-Fushan reach of Huaihe River/

LIU Hu1, LIU Jinwen2

(1. Huaihe River Project Construction Management Bureau of Huaihe River Commission, Bengbu 233001, China; 2. Jiangsu Water Source Co., Ltd. of Eastern Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion, Nanjing 210029, China)

Abstract: The value engineering research model is introduced into the regulation project of the main stream of Huaihe River, and the adjustment and construction project of Xiangmiao-Fushan reach is treated as the research object of value engineering. The construction preparation stage is regarded as the entry point, and the related issues such as layout of mud disposal area in the river dredging project is the research focus. Through functional analysis and program creation, by means of the reasonable minimum engineering cost, the integrated optimal functional value of river regulation is achieved. The research results are directly applied to the project construction practice so as to optimize the design and implementation schemes and to save the project investment.

Key words: water conservancy engineering; value engineering; watercourse regulation; dredging; Huaihe River

Cost forecast of filling water for shipping in rivers/

YANG Gaosheng, LU Xingyun, JI Aijun, ZHANG Xiaojing, SUN Yuying

(Institute of Engineering Management, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: The impact factors of cost are investigated through literature statistics and Delphi analysis. The active degrees of various costs of water supply and their influencing factors are obtained. Accordingly different forecast models for different costs of water supply with different active degrees are established. It may provide a reference for adjusting the standards of filling water fee for shipping. The applicability and rationality of these models are validated through the case study of Xietai water filling station.

Key words: cost forecast; filling water for shipping; active degree; Xietai water filling station

Transaction mode innovation and key scientific issues for general contract of water conservancy projects in China/

DING Jiyong1, WANG Zhuofu1, LING Yangming-xing1, REN Xiaoqiang2

(1. Institute of Engineering Management, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2. Power China Zhongnan Engineering Corporation, Changsha 410014, China)

Abstract: Influenced by the international standard contract conditions such as the FIDIC, the engineering and theoretical circles in China often connect the engineering general contract with the fixed price contract and its simple governance structure, which restricts its application and popularization in construction of water conservancy projects with uncertain site data invested by the government. The content of the engineering general contract is analyzed. It is pointed out that the largest advantage of engineering general contract is its integration of design and construction for a contractor so as to provide power, platform and space for the contractor to optimize the project and further to obtain added value of the project. For implementing the engineering general contract of water conservancy projects, the corresponding transaction mode should be innovated to adapt to their particularity and to give full play of their value-added advantage. The status of worldwide engineering general contract is analyzed, and some key scientific issues for the mode innovation of engineering general contract of water conservancy projects in China are put forward, mainly including project identification, mode design, distribution of added value and optimization of governance system at levels of owner and contract.

Key words: water conservancy project; general contract; transaction mode; key scientific issue; added value

Problems and causes of division of water conservancy administrative powers and expenditure responsibilities in China/

SONG Meizhe, LIU Hanbo

(Hunan University of Finance and Economics, Changsha 410205, China)

Abstract: In order to strengthening the system of water conservancy administrative powers in relation to expenditure responsibilities in China, to improve the efficiency of water conservancy funds and to promote the development of water conservancy, the existing problems in the current division of water conservancy administrative powers and expenditure responsibilities are discussed through the field investigations of many reservoirs, water locks, dykes and irrigation ditches mainly in Hunan Province. Then the causes are analyzed by using the polycentric governance theory, fiscal federalism theory and bureaucracy theory. The results show that the society and individuals excessively depend on the government in the regulation of water conservancy. The division of water conservancy administrative powers between higher and lower levels is unreasonable. The inter-boundary conflicts are hard to be solved. The division of water conservancy administrative powers among different government departments is overlapped, and there is coexistence of multiple departments in regulating water conservancy. The scale of special funds is large, and the fiscal fragmentation is serious. The main causes are as follows: the social and individual autonomy is not strong, and their self organizing ability is weak. The participation system in water conservancy is not perfect. The division of water conservancy administrative powers between higher and lower levels exhibits obvious administrative powers, same responsibilities and unfavorable gaming positions. The responsibility boundaries among different governmental departments are vague. The sector interests are fixed. Based on the above mentioned, a series of policy measures for reform of the division of the water conservancy administrative powers and expenditure responsibilities are put forward so as to form the equilibrium administrative mode for stakeholders with the government being the subject.

Key words: governmental water conservancy function; administrative power and expenditure responsibility; governmental offside; administrative decentralization; coexistence of multiple departments in regulating water conservancy

Evaluation of water-saving society construction in pollution-induced water shortage areas based on the most stringent water resource management system/

LIU Feifei, FANG Guohua, GAO Ying, LIU Qin

(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

Abstract: Based on the analysis of its connotation and characteristics, the evaluation index system of water-saving society construction in pollution-induced water shortage areas, which includes target layer, criterion layer, area layer and index layer, is formulated according to the three red lines of the most stringent water resource management. The evaluation model of water-saving society construction based on the chaos genetic algorithm and the projection pursuit is established. The level of the water-saving society construction in Kunshan City is evaluated. The results show that the level of the water-saving society construction in 2012, 2014 and 2020 is “good”, and that in 2025 is “excellent”. They are consistent with the actual situation and the goal in the program. It is indicated that the proposed index system and projection pursuit model constructed are feasible and effective to a certain degree.

Key words: the most stringent water resource management; pollution-induced water shortage; water-saving society; evaluation index system; projection pursuit; chaos genetic algorithm

Risk factor identification for use of flood detention zones in Huaihe River basin/

MAO Chunmei1, GU Yangyang1, YU Yanbo2, DU Yong3

(1. School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2. Technology Research Center, Huaihe River Commission, Bengbu 233001, China; 3. Beijing Institute of Water, Beijing 100048, China)

Abstract: As an important part of the flood control system, the flood detention zone plays an important role in mitigating the flood pressure on the embankments of Huaihe River. Using the flood detention zones will cause various risks such as economic losses, casualties and environmental pollution. The risk of using flood detention zones is the result of the common action of the factors which are potential of disaster factors, vulnerability of environment and disasters as well as frangibility of disaster prevention system. The risk factors of using flood detention zones are analyzed from four aspects, and the relevant risk control strategies are proposed.

Key words: flood detention zone; risk factor identification; risk control strategy; Huaihe River basin

Linkage of risk warning information transmission of flood detention zones in river basins:Based on perspective of stakeholder analysis of Mengwa Flood Detention Zone/

ZHANG Xin1, XIONG Min1, LIU Kun2

(1. School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 2. Jinhua Ningtai Assessment Advisory Co., Ltd., Jinhua 321000, China)

Abstract: Taking Mengwa Flood Detention Zone of Huaihe River as an example, the framework of the main interests of stakeholders is analyzed. The field investigations and key information interviews are employed to determine the warning information of disasters, and the linkage path of the corresponding information transmission is proposed based on the information demand of stakeholders. A multi-level, multi-subject participation of information transmission path is proposed considering warning decision layer, management layer and implementation layer of flood detention zones. Accordingly, the interests of stakeholders are greatly guaranteed, and further, the maximum value of warning information transmission of disasters in flood detention zones is achieved.

Key words: stakeholder; flood detention zone; information transmission; interaction

Establishment and data updating of flood damage assessment database system of Huaihe River basin/

SUN Zhonggen1, JIANG Suna1, WANG Yunfei2

(1. School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2. Department of Geography of Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China)

Abstract: As a design tool, GIS is taken to establish the flood damage quick assessment database system of flood detention zones of Huaihe River basin and to investigate its data collection, processing and updating. The results show that establishing the flood damage assessment database system of flood detention zones of Huaihe River basin mainly include the content of database, database source and processing, formulation of Geodatabase model as well as database management and sorting. Meanwhile, the database collection, processing and updating should be undertaken based on the current management system and various statistical paths of data in Huaihe River basin.

Key words: flood detention zone; damage; quick assessment; database; Huaihe River basin

Application of projection pursuit model to risk assessment of flood detention zones/

HUANG Jianyuan1, JIN Guangyu1, YU Yanbo2

(1. School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 2. The Research Centre of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Technology, Bengbu 233001, China)

Abstract: The risk assessment index system for flood detention zones is introduced into the projection pursuit model based on the information entropy, and the risk assessment projection values are obtained. According to the results, the use risks of flood detention zones of Huaihe River can be divided into four levels, that is, from high to low: “I level” (projection value≥4.16), including four flood detention zones and two flood areas of Shouxihu and Baojiwei; “II level” (projection value: 4.10～4.16), including four flood areas of Tangyuhu etc.; “III level” (projection value: 3.90～4.16), including seven flood areas of Xiangfuduan etc.; “IV level” (projection value: 0～3.90), including four flood areas of Qiujiahu etc.

Key words: information entropy; projection pursuit model; risk level; flood detention zone

Development and design of decision support system of flood detention zones based on controllable risk control/

SUN Yan1, LIU Zhonggang2, YU Yanbo3

(1. School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 2. Water Resources Department of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210029, China; 3. Technical Research Center of Huaihe River Commission, Bengbu 233001, China)

Abstract: With regard to the problems in the decision making of flood retention zones, Mengwa Flood Retention Zone is selected as the case study zone of “Application of decision support system of flood detention zone based on controllable risk techniques”. By integrating multi-source data and models based on GIS techniques and platform, the decision support tools for watershed planning and management of flood detention zones are established to help solve several problems, such as rapid and accurate evaluation of flood losses, efficient and rapid forecasting and alert of flood risks, control and management as well as emergency management framework.

Key words: decision support; system development; risk assessment; flood detention zone

Census mapping of socio-economic data by modeling loss assessment of flood disasters/

WANG Yufei1, 2, 3, SUN Yan4, ZHANG Hong1, 2, 3

(1. Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment (Nanjing Normal University), Ministry of Education, Nanjing 210023, China; 2. State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution (Jiangsu Province), Nanjing 210023, China; 3. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China; 4. School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

Abstract: By analyzing the relationship between attribute of socio-economic data and type of land use, a new refined method for census mapping of the socio-economic data is proposed. It can accurately and satisfactorily realize the census mapping of socio-economic data so as to provide reliable data and decision-making basis for loss assessment of flood disasters. The results of simulated flood loss of typical case studies are very close to the loss information of the field investigations and other studies. It is indicated that the proposed census mapping based on the attribute of socio-economic data and the type of land use is feasible and applicable.

Key words: socio-economic data; census mapping; loss of flood disaster; quick assessment

Temporary relocation and guarantee mechanism of supply of flood detention zones/

WANG Zaiming1, YU Yanbo2, JI Yizhu1, HE Xilong1

(1. China Water Huaihe Planning, Design & Research Co., Ltd., Hefei 230000, China; 2. Research Centre of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Technology, Huaihe River Commission, Bengbu 233001, China)

国家自然科学基金(71573072);国家社会科学基金重大项目 (11ZD168);国家外国专家局高端外国专家项目(GDW20153200137);长江学者和创新团队发展计划(IRT13062)

吴海燕(1992—),女,江苏如东人,硕士研究生,主要从事工程经济研究。E-mail:wuhaiyan939@126.com

10.3880/j.issn.1003-9511.2016.05.003

F284

A

1003-9511(2016)05-0011-03

2016-04-33 编辑：胡新宇)