The Roaring Robots

The robot industry is undoubt- edly a promising new industry. On June 2， the Dragon Boat Day in China， about 700 experts in robot industry spent their holiday in Tianjin， where a forum of robots was held.

In the meeting， different robot enterprises came out and presented their latest products. However， they were usually asked similar questions： “Did you make the decelerator by yourself？ What about the server motor？” Strangely， most of the speakers would lower their voices or even felt self-ashamed.

This is an embarrassing topic.

The robot has become a hot topic in the manufacturing. The disappearance of the of the population dividends， the increase in the labor cost and the transformation of the manufacturing has become the main reasons to promote the robot industry. Many enterprises， no matter they have experiences with robots or not， have announced the plan to get into the market of robot manufacturing.

Such a vision is not new to us. Previous experiences told us that Chinese enterprises never lack the enthusiasm for the promising industries， but is the enthusiasm equal to success？

Crazy Distribution

In a small meeting room of the site for the aforementioned forum， the journalists from Tianjin pressed Cai Hegao， an academician with the Chinese Academy of Engineering， for his opinions on the advantages Tianjin had in developing the robot industry. In front of the microphones， Cai Hegao just said that Tianjin had a solid foundation for the robot industry. On that day， Cai Hegao and Zhang Bo， another academician with the Chinese Academy of Engineering， were appointed the consultants to the Tianjin Innovative Alliance of Robot Industry and Technologies.

Cai Hegao said that China was behind the other countries in the world even though it has the largest manufacturing industry in the world. The ownership of robots per capita in China is even lower than that of North Korea. But China is the fastest growing robot market in the world. The number of newly installed robots increased twofold in the last five years and the figure will double again in the next three years.

Such a huge pie has not only drawn the attention of the practitioners and investors， but also inspired local governments of different places， which found new opportunities to boost their economic development.

In Wuqing District where the robot forum was held， a base for the development of the industrial alliance and strategic study of robot was built in the Automotive Industrial Park. Its director Tang Wanqiang said that this base had already attracted several robot projects which were parts of the 863 Sci-Tech Development Plan of China.“A place covering 2.4 thousand square meters is planned for the development and production of robots. We are going to actively build a complete industrial chain with R&D， design， manufacturing and detection. We hope to recruit 100 relevant enterprises in five years.”endprint

The government of Tianjin has already issued the plans to boost the development of robots for the manufacturing， police， safety， mining， underwater work and minimally invasive surgery. The government is expected to be able to produce 5000 robots of each kind by 2015 and improve the market value to 20 billion yuan.

Apart from Tianjin， the ShenyangFushun New City， a special economic zone between Shenyang and Fushun， Liaoning， also claims to build the largest industrial base of robot in China with the expected annual output of 50 billion yuan. The government of Qingdao， Shandong is planning a park covering 1000 mu （about 67 hectares）， hoping to turn it into the largest robot industrial park in North China. Chongqing has already started the construction of 20-thouand-sqm robot industrial park in its Two-River New District. Its goal is to recruit more than 30 enterprises by 2015， forming the production capacity of 40 thousand industrial robots and key components with the annual output of 20 billion yuan. After completing this goal， the park is expected to accommodate more than 200 enterprises， which can produce 100 thousand robots for industrial manufacturing， 1 million robots for services and 1，000 robots for special utility. The annual output is expected to reach 50 billion yuan.

In addition， Shanghai， Shenyang， Harbin， Changzhou， Tangshan and Xuzhou all have their own plans about robot industrial parks， with the increasing size and production capacity following the time sequence.

The self descriptions of these robot industrial parks all contain one sentence： “According to the forecast of IRF， China is going to be the largest market of industrial robots in the world in 2014 as 35 thousand units would be sold， up 60% compared with the figure of 2011. In 2015， the sales volume of industrial robots in the world will reach 200 thousand units in 2015 and the value of the global robot market will hit US$50 billion yuan.

The U.S. has already declared the goal of “returning to the manufacturing”， hoping to reinvigorate this old industry. through the development of artificial intelligence， robot technologies and digital manufacturing. The EU Commission has introduced the concept about “new industrial revolution”， focusing on the technological innovation and structural change. Japan and South Korea also list the robot as the emerging technology with strategic importance and have fixed detailed plans. These countries actions are solid proofs for the looming development of the robot industry.endprint

Luo Jun， executive chairman of the International Alliance of Robots and Smart Equipment， said that the attention Chinese governments of different levels pay to the robot industry is a good thing， but it does not mean that every place has the conditions to build the industrial park for robots and smart equipments. There are three standards to see the potential： it should have the industrial base， such as the R&D resources， industrial resources and talent pool； it has great market extension power to form the industrial cluster through introduction of technologies； it should have easy access to raw materials， which could save the cost of development.

“Places without apparent advantages in these three fields should not be involved in the robot industry blindly，”said Luo Jun.

Assembly Plants？

Along with the fast development of Chinese economy， China has fast increasing demand for the industrial robots， especially in the automotive industry. However， no Chinese companies could get into the top four robot manufacturers in China

But the top four robot manufacturers – KUKA from Germany， FANUC， Yaskawa from Japan and ABB from the Switzerland – have sold their products to the Chinese markets. Smaller companies from Italy， the U.S. and South Korea also established branches in China to produce robots and supporting devices. The price of foreign-made robots keeps dropping every year which is strangling the development of Chinamade industrial robots.

Presently， these foreign brands have already taken 90% of the Chinese market， with less than 10% market taken by the Chinese enterprises.

“If things are not changed， we are likely to repeat a sentence that has been spoken many times several years later：‘China is a big country of robots， not a powerful country of robots，” said Ma Nan， Vice General Manager of China Investment Consultancy.

This is not an exaggeration. The development of Chinas industrial robots has gone through four periods of sample study， sample development， pilot use and initial industrial use. In the past decade， the robot industry of China received the governmental support in the form of 863 Sci-Tech Development Plan and other plans.

Even though the industrial robots of China have got fast development， this country is still far behind foreign countries in the technologies. Presently， the technology of industrial robots of China is only equal to the one of foreign countries in the mid 1990s.endprint

One of the most apparent problems is that the production scale of industrial robots is not big in China. There are a lot of small enterprises， which could only produce a small batch of robots. In addition， the core parts and production lines are all imported from foreign countries. An imported decelerator could take 35% of the total cost of the robot. The reliance on importation puts the Chinese robot industry at the mercy of foreign companies. The lack of “independence” has become the biggest problem for the development of Chinas robot industry.

“Foreign robot enterprises are strong in every aspect， such as the joint of key components， the assembly and the software algorithm，” Ma Nan said. Some Chinese enterprises try to be as talented as these foreign enterprises， but the effect is not good. For example， a local-made harmonic reducer， which is an important part of the robot， could last one or two years after being put into use， only one fifth of the duration of foreign components. In addition， the lack of expertise in software algorithm made most of Chinese enterprises unable to take the job of assembling or installing the robots.

“During the use of robots， the components for controlling the sensors matching the robots are bought from foreign companies. These brands could provide stable and durable products which could easily adapt to the complicated situation. The China-made sensors and components have much worse performance compared with these foreign brands.”

For this， Zhao Jie， head of the Robot Research Center at Harbin Institute of Industry， attributed the underdevelopment to the “talent” factors. Even though there are hundreds of universities， institutes and enterprises engaged in the R&D of robots in China， they are isolated and separated from each other， failing to form a united force in the R&D of robots. Sometimes， several organizations study into one technology simultaneously， leading to the waste of time and money. In addition， most of the Chinese enterprises want to be“multi-talented”. Some of them， which used to have good performance in the development of components， distracted themselves by getting involved in the production and assembly of robots. The shared energy and resources result in the underperformance of all aspects.

The Concerns about Excess Capacity

In a Northeast China-based companys robot plan， the industrial robots， which have been painted white， stand in a row， looking like a pack of sheep from afar. The directors of the enterprise kept bragging about the “grandness” of this plant.endprint

In the Chinese website called“Community of Industrial Robots in China” which has over 100 thousand registered members， people are fervently discussing about the pros and cons of robots and the development plan of China. “According to the plans of robot industry from different places， the total production capacity that is to be achieved in 2015 is equal to the total demand of the entire world. Now， every company wants to make robots. The listed companies will see their stock price rise quickly as long as they have relations with robot， no matter how small they are，” said a member.

Zhao Jie， who is an experienced robot expert in China， is also concerned about the possible excess supply of industrial robots in China. In his opinion， this result seems inevitable as a lot of enterprises which claim to be bullish on the robot industry are swarming into this sector. This could cut the profit margin of robot manufacturers in China to the lowest point， depriving them of the power to sustain their development.

“Presently， a dozen or so of major manufacturers of industrial robots in the world can meet the demand of the world for the industrial robots. They also have the potential to expand their production capacity，” said Zhao Jie.

Cai Hegao hopes that the big and experienced enterprises of industrial robots could survive the chaos in the next few years with their advanced technologies and strong financial power. Then， they can be the leading roles in the healthy and sustainable development of the robot industry in China.

The emerging industries with great potential drove people crazy. These people threw massive investment into these industries and soon increased the production capacity to the level of being excess. Then the enterprises fell down one by one， rendering the used-to-bepromising industries destitute. This is a story Chinese people have heard many times in the PV and wind power industries.

Lets hope that the robot industry would not take the same road！endprint