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A New Type of Great Power Relationship:Constructing Theory, Strategy and Policy

2013-08-15

China International Studies 2013年3期

At a critical moment in the transformation of international system and interaction among great powers, China put forward an idea of building a “New Type of Great Power Relationship (NTGPR)”.The concept has been in existence for just more than a year and already reflects the new generation of Chinese leaders’ thinking on foreign strategy which stresses peace, development, cooperation and a winwin approach, attaches importance to increasing the awareness and capacity of shaping the theory and practice of international relations,and calls for greater guidance and operability of the diplomatic theory with Chinese characteristics.The introduction of the concept of NTGPR has increasing influence on the international community and world affairs.

I.Definition of the “New Type of Great Power Relationship”

On February 15, 2012, during his visit to the United States, then Vice President Xi Jinping, for the first time and on behalf of China,shared his vision of a NTGPR between China and the United States.Then, President Hu Jintao further elaborated on the concept of NTGPR in his speech at the opening ceremony of the fourth round of China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue and in his meeting with President Obama during the summit of the Group of 20.The Obama administration echoed, in a positive manner, to China’s NTGPR initiative.On March 7 and April 10, 2012, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton acknowledged the concept of NTGPR in her speeches at the United States Institute of Peace and the US Naval Academy.And later, in his meeting with President Hu Jintao during the G20 summit, President Obama again expressed his acceptance of the concept.Following the transition of administration in China and the United States, the willingness to build a China-US NTGPR has been clearly expressed in US President’s National Security Adviser Donilon’s policy statement on March 11, 2013, in President Obama’s phone conversation with President Xi Jinping on March 14, and in State Secretary John Kerry’s remarks in his meetings with Chinese leaders on April 13 during his visit to China.

As a new concept, NTGPR is still evolving: it includes the practical considerations and expectations of the international community,especially those of relevant big powers; it involves the process of theoretical construct, including the conversion from a political lexicon to an academic language.The international community and scholarly circles are making efforts to explore ways to avoid wars and other serious conflicts as a result of a fundamental change in the international balance of power and have realized that in the era of globalization, coexistence and even peaceful transposition between emerging powers and established powers if handled properly.Chinese scholar Wang Honggang pointed out that there is a basic consensus between China and the United States that Sino-US relations in the 21st century must embark on a new path and avoid historical mistakes of zero-sum games and confrontation between big powers.Another Chinese scholar Yuan Peng further stated that “the leaders of China and the United States have both the political will and a sense of historical mission to escape from the historical fate of the rise and fall of big powers and build NTGPR that is peaceful and win-win in nature.Some strategic thinkers in both countries have published their insights along this line of thinking.”

The general attitude of related great powers can be divided into two major categories: preventive in a passive manner; engaging in an active manner.The former focuses on prevention of major conflicts and wars between great powers on the basis of maintaining the status quo while the latter hinges upon win-win cooperation as a core principle.For example, in his meeting with visiting US Secretary of State John Kerry, President Xi Jinping said that “I hope that both countries will take a strategic and long-term view of China-US relations, carry out dialogue and cooperation with a positive attitude and development perspective, deal with their differences in the spirit of mutual respect and seeking common ground while reserving differences and substantiate their partnership.We should blaze a trail for a new type of relations between major powers that features equality, mutual trust, tolerance, mutual learning, cooperation and common prosperity.”

China’s concept of NTGPR has a broad meaning and provides for both moral norms and problem solutions.China believes that the NTGPR initially referred to but now is not limited to China-US relations.It can be used for relations with traditional powers such as the United States, Europe and Japan as well as emerging powers such as the BRICS countries.China stresses the objectives and principled appeals of the NTGPR, and emphasizes impartiality, fairness and reasonableness in international relations.In addition, China has successively put forward a series of propositions on NTGPR: China-Russia relationship is a role model of NTGPR; China-US relationship is considered a priority in the development of NTGPR; there is great potential for growth in China’s relations with other BRICS countries; China should increase inputs into its relations with the EU; Sino-Japanese relationship remains a difficult issue.Naturally,China’s approaches to these five pairs of state-to-state relations will differ from each other in terms of priority, highlight and difficulty.

The United States views the NTGPR as one between a rising power (China) and an established power (the United States), and the relationship is considered issue-oriented.For example, US President’s National Security Adviser Donilon talked about the NTGPR, he focused on mil-to-mil relations, economic relations and cybersecurity.US Deputy Secretary of State William Burns also reduced the NTGPR to a way to solve specific issues.He said in his visit to China that the United States is committed to the establishment of a new model of great power relationship with China and it is hoped that this new relationship will be translated into concrete cooperation for the benefit of the two countries and peoples of the world.

Russia views the NTGPR as new types of international relations and principles guiding these relations and has stressed that Russia and China have made joint contribution to world stability and development by promoting the establishment of a more just world order, maintaining peace and security, and defending the basic norms of international law.The European Union and major European powers are still skeptical of the notion of NTGPR, with a concern that it might be a variant to “peaceful coexistence”.Therefore, the Joint Press Statement of the 15th China-EU Leaders’ Meeting (on September 20, 2012) did not mention the notion.

II.Historical Memories and the Trends of the Times Concerning the “New Type of Major Power Relationship”

The discipline of International Relations was born out of history,and historical memories have a profound impact on IR theories.Many Western historians and theorists argue that rising powers and established powers are bound to clash and even go to war, and they often cite the Peloponnesian War (431-404 BC) between the Delian League and the Peloponnesian League to show that the conflict between a rising power and an established power led to the collapse of the ancient Greek city-state system.As for modern international relations, examples often include the Portugal-Spain and Spain-Netherlands clashes in the 16th century; the Netherlands-United Kingdom and the Netherlands-France conflicts in the 17th century;the Britain-France confrontation in the 18th and 19th centuries; the French and British war with Germany in the 20th century as well as the war between the United States and Japan in 1941.

However, this historical memory is only a selective memory of some people in the West.In China, during the same period as the Peloponnesian War, Confucianism with the teachings of Confucius at the core became a unique theory in the world, and some of its ideas became guiding principles for China in dealing with its neighboring countries.During the Ming Dynasty, earlier than the world’s great geographic discoveries, Zheng He engaged in peaceful diplomacy by making seven westward voyages.However, this history has not become a mainstream collective memory of the Western community of International Relations Theorists, and thus some historical experiences and lessons were lost.

Even in the West, there are examples of a peaceful switch of the status of a rising power and an established power, such as the switched status of the United Kingdom and the United States.Moreover, in nearly 70 years since the end of the Second World War, the adjustment of relations between emerging powers and established powers was not accompanied by a large-scale war.For example, Germany and France started the European Coal and Steel Community which led to the establishment and development of the European Community(EU).Then in the Western camp, the economic rise of Germany and Japan did not lead to a war with the United States.And then the competition between the Soviet Union and the United States was always limited to a Cold War, without resort to an actual war, or even a nuclear war.Finally, the Cold War came to an end through peaceful means in early 1990s.

The establishment of NTGPR is both an outcome of the development of the times and the need of the times to continue to develop.

If the devastating consequences of nuclear weapons made the United States and the Soviet Union think twice before resorting to direct wars to destroy each other during the Cold War, then the unprecedented degree of communication, exchange and mutual interdependence between major powers in the era of globalization is of significance for shaping their relations in a positive way.As a matter of fact, since Nixon’s visit to China more than 40 years ago,China and the United States have enjoyed increasingly close economic interdependence and political interaction despite huge differences in their socio-economic systems, ideologies and development models,thus some basic elements of NTGPR have taken shape.Now China’s formal proposal to establish NTGPR is of new historical significance because it helps promote scientific development, self-development,open development, peaceful development, cooperative development and common development.

The establishment of NTGPR is both an outcome of the development of the times and the need of the times to continue to develop.As long as China and other big countries make joint efforts,the international community would be able to embark on a road of common development that centers on win-win cooperation in the era of multi-polarization and globalization, thus a new trend of building NTGPR will be in place and peace and development will be celebrated.

III.Theoretical Construction of the “New Type of Major Power Relationship”

The theoretical construct of NTGPR is still in its initial stage and efforts should be made to develop and improve the theory in terms of its historical background, theoretical system, main connotation,different categories, basic issues, and implications for practice.Four aspects of the theory are hereby discussed.

1.The implications of NTGPR for international system

Big powers are the main actors of international relations and their relations determine the trend of the international system to a considerable extent.China is summarizing the inherent logic of the peaceful transition and transformation of the international system since the end of World War II.The US-Soviet Cold War, instead of a hot war, in the post-War period has important meanings for the transition of the international system.During the Cold War period, minimum common interests and common rules existed between the United States and the Soviet Union.They shared the common interests to avoid war, and they all followed the same rules which made the avoidance of war the highest priority, especially during a crisis.The end of the Cold War and the transformation of international system occurred in a basically peaceful manner, and two Gulf Wars and the war in Afghanistan during the period were not fought between a rising power and an established power for dominance of the international system.In a highly interdependent world today and tomorrow, people have reason to believe that the peaceful competition and cooperation between great powers might sustain and may also lead to a new model of peace as well as a new road of peaceful symbiosis.

2.The values as reflected in NTGPR

Values are an integral part of the theory of international relations and related to the fundamental understanding and judgment of international relations.However, the values of the international relations are plural and diversified because of different backgrounds,environment and interests.Western theory of international relations as represented by the United States focuses on defense of the legality of the existing system and few people are willing to discuss the fair and reasonable requests from developing countries.With the trend of democratization in international relations, the demand by the vast number of developing countries for a reform of the international system has formed a shock wave in the new era.The concept of NTGPR advocated by the Chinese Government calls for shaping a more just and equitable international system, and Chinese scholars has broken through the taboo and started to discuss the issue of values in the theory of international relations.Some Chinese scholars with a pessimistic attitude believe that “the differences between Chinese culture and values and Western-dominated universal value system have become a focus of the interaction between China and the international system.As a modernizing power in transformation,China finds itself in an unavoidable conflict with the international system in terms of values, and the problems China encounters in the international system are all associated with the differences and conflicts in the deep-seated value system.We can observe this association by comparing the values of China and the United States.”(Liu Kang,2013) But scholars with optimistic views believe that “the values of China and the United States are the same in many important ways.For example, the two countries believe in the same market philosophy, follow the same basic international rules of the game,share the fruits of globalization, and face the same challenges of global issues ...With a gradually narrowing gap between the two countries in economic and social development levels, the two countries will have more obvious similarities in terms of values and political philosophy,enjoy increasing consensus, witness decreased differences on some issues, and be more effective in enhancing mutual understanding and communication through equal dialogue.”(Xu Jian, 2013) This author agrees with the optimistic view and believes that China and the West could “live in harmony and value differences” in terms values by “co-existing at the present and co-shaping the future.” Of course, this requires long and arduous efforts.

China and the West could“live in harmony and value differences” in terms values by “co-existing at the present and co-shaping the future.”

3.The non-Western dimension of NTGPR

China’s advocacy for NTGPR means yet another challenge by a non-Western country to Western dominance and is becoming a new system of discourse.Those who believe in the NTGPR shun fatalism of inevitable conflict and hold the view that under the guidance of the ideas of peace, the Sino-US relations can achieve peaceful landing and become a model which has never existed before.In China’s dictionary of international politics, a great power has evolved from the traditional sense to include hegemonic powers, traditional powers and big developing countries(emerging powers) as represented by the BRICS countries, and this change is consistent with China’s advocacy for global multi-polarization and the democratization of international relations.In his meeting with President Xi Jinping on March 27, 2013, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said that Indian hopes that the two countries would maintain high-level exchanges and dialogue, respect each other’s core interests and major concerns, deepen mutual strategic trust, strengthen coordination and cooperation on international affairs, and safeguard peace and stability in the region and the world at large.Singh added that India is willing to make concerted efforts with China to show the world that they are cooperative partners instead of rivals.On the same day, the Durban Declaration released after meeting of the leaders of the BRICS countries stated that “we are committed to building a harmonious world of lasting peace and common prosperity and reaffirm that the 21st century should be marked by peace, security,development, and cooperation.It is the overarching objective and strong shared desire for peace, security, development and cooperation that brought together BRICS countries.” It could be seen that the Chinese discourse is becoming the common language of the BRICS countries and therefore has increasing general significance and influence.

4.Symbiosis of NTGPR and international peace

International symbiosis is nothing new, but the current globalization makes international symbiosis more urgent and likely.“The self-fulfillment of any country will not be possible without the self-fulfillment of other countries, and in actuality it can only be possible in the process of the fulfillment of other countries.”

To date, all the great power theories are derived from the exclusiveness of a big power.The theory about European powers and the Anglo-American hegemony is full of arguments for colonies and spheres of influence as well as the big bullying the small and the strong bullying the weak.But in the age of globalization and multi-polarization, now it’s possible for the first time to build symbiosis of great powers both in reality and theory.The concepts of a harmonious world, peace and development as well as NTGPR are the result of China’s practical efforts and theoretical exploration.To promote political multipolarization, economic globalization, cultural diversity and social informationization is to enhance the foundation for win-win symbiosis of the international community.The world we live in is physical,so strengthening international economic, trade, financial, security and social cooperation should be the priority.However, the international community should go beyond the physical perspective and deepen the understanding of the physical relationship of the world, regulate the mutual interests and rights with common systems, and strive for more and greater symbiosis on a win-win basis with common ideals.In addition to emphasis on material wealth, the international community should build spiritual wealth and increase inputs into theoretical construction.In short, to strengthen the building of the community of human destiny between China and the international community is an endeavor for the international community of symbiosis.Only with this strategic view and long-term perspective can the symbiotic basis of the international community be established and strengthened.

To promote political multipolarization, economic globalization, cultural diversity and social informationization is to enhance the foundation for win-win symbiosis of the international community.

IV.Strategic Thinking on NTGPR

In international relations, strategic planning and operation are needed to translate a concept (theory) to practice.China’s promotion of NTGPR started with a comprehensive and long-term consideration of Sino-US relations.In the meantime, China also gave strategic considerations to relations with other major powers.With the passage of time, NTGPR will provide more reference and inspiration for strategic planning and operation with regard to China’s relationship with Europe and BRICS countries.

1.New type of Sino-US relations and strategic trust/suspicion

The strategic thinking on the establishment of a new type of relations between China and the United States involves many aspects and the most important aspect is to increase strategic mutual trust.However, there is a serious strategic trust deficit between China and the United States.

First, China and the United States should increase the positive energy in the relations between the rising power and the established one.China uses the strategic culture of “benevolent (kingly) way”to consider and plan NTGPR while the United States cooperates with China on specific issues in order to maintain US leadership and dominance in the world, obviously applying a strategic culture of“craft”.However, strategic mutual trust between the two countries will increase if they can support each other on important global issues, remain mutually inclusive on regional issues, and respect each other and engage in more cooperation on bilateral issues.

Second, the two countries should make good use of strategic dialogue mechanisms.There are already dozens of dialogue mechanisms at different levels and the “Strategic and Economic Dialogue” Sino-US jointly initiated by President Hu Jintao and President Obama remains the most important and effective dialogue between the two countries.On the occasion of the re-run-in between the two new administrations, the two sides should strengthen their strategic dialogue on a long-term, comprehensive and systemic basis,while striving for tangible results.Looking into the possible priorities of the Sino-US strategic dialogue in Obama’s second term, China and the United States should engage in more effective cooperation in the global economic governance system, Asia-Pacific security cooperation framework, control mechanisms for bilateral differences and crisis.

Third, the interaction of strategic thinking should be intensified.For 20 years from 1969 to 1989, the Sino-US common strategic thinking was based on the geostrategic considerations to respond to Soviet expansionism.The common strategic thinking since 1990,such as economic interests and anti-terror cooperation, is not enough to become the sole and overriding strategic thinking.China and the United States should strengthen inter-government, inter-academia and people-to-people interaction in strategic thinking, explore the common strategic objectives, approaches, measures and values for the next 10 years, and deepen and expand strategic cooperation between the two sides.

2.Strategic thinking and planning on building NTGPR between China and other BRICS countries

The BRICS countries, including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, are representatives of emerging powers in the new era.China and other BRICS countries are building NTGPR from a strategic perspective.As a non-Western group, BRICS countries are engaging in trans-regional strategic integration, with a global vision beyond the traditional geo-strategic thinking.On June 16,2009, the BRICS countries held their first summit meeting, marking an initial success in strategic integration of the BRICS countries.The Yekaterinburg Joint Declaration released by the BRICS summit pointed out that “we underline our support for a more democratic and just multi-polar world order based on the rule of international law, equality, mutual respect, cooperation, coordinated action and collective decision-making of all states.” The Declaration already included what were later known as the basic elements of NTGPR.The Durban Declaration released in March 2013 showed that the BRICS countries have made great strides in institutional cooperation and conceptual integration.

In the course of their development, BRICS countries have gradually formed a common strategy on NTGPR with distinguished characteristics.The BRICS countries emphasize internal communication and co-operation as well as external cooperation and win-win.The concept of BRICS was created by the West, and the convergence of the BRICS countries started from their interaction with Western developed countries (e.g., G8 +5 Dialogue).In the global financial crisis that began in 2008, the BRICS countries have strengthened mutual consultation and also adopted a cooperative attitude toward Western developed countries, and finally helped the world weather through the crisis in the spirit of “all-in-the-sameboat”.

BRICS countries have planned topical and institutional cooperation from a strategic perspective.They cooperated with each other in the United Nations vote on the issue of West Asia and North Africa, rendered support to each other in response to climate change through the platform of the Durban conference, and used the creation of a new Development Bank as an important tool for development.The institutional cooperation of the BRICS countries is still in its infancy, but the trend of its development shows that it has the ability to reduce the differences between themselves (for example, the “India, Brazil, South Africa Club” with an emphasis on ideology has gradually subsided) and to seek more in common.

3.Strategic considerations for China’s cooperation with Europe, Japan and other traditional powers

The initial interaction between China and the EU on the question of NTGPR was not satisfactory, but China managed to deepen China-EU relations in the spirit of the NTGPR.The Chinese government believes that “with the development of the time, China-EU relations should achieve greater progress at a higher level.We should, through creative thinking, set a higher goal for China-EU relations, further tap the potential for cooperation so as to better serve the interests of China and the EU and the world.[…] As the most important emerging economy and group of developed countries respectively in the world, China and Europe should and can build a new type of partnership that celebrates mutual respect and mutual learning,comprehensive cooperation and common prosperity.”1“Build a New Type of China-Europe Partnership Featuring Mutual Respect, Mutual Learning,Comprehensive Cooperation and Common Prosperity”, Speech by Vice Foreign Minister Song Tao At IES Ambassadors’ Forum of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, April 3,2013, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjdt/zyjh/t1035230.shtml.China and Japan, as the world’s second largest and third largest economies respectively and also important neighbors to each other, should guide and direct their relations with the principles of NTGPR from a longterm perspective of development so as to establish a strategic and mutually beneficial relationship between the two countries as soon as possible despite of low ebbs in the bilateral relations in history.

V.Policy Approaches to Achieve NTGPR

To build NTGPR requires theories and strategies as well as downto-earth efforts.Countries concerned should step up their run-in in policy formulation and implementation, and accumulate their progress in the building of NTGPR in the process of cooperation and problem-solving.

1.Determination of the issues and agenda of building NTGPR

It is extremely important to pinpoint the key issues and right agenda for building the NTGPR given the complexity of the relations among major powers.On the one hand, bilateral relationship is the basis for relations among big powers as well as the focal point in achieving mutual benefit and win-win results and controlling differences among these powers.Therefore, China views Sino-Russian relations as a priority and finds strategic support in the bilateral ties, defines Sino-US relations as one of the most important bilateral relations in the world, and regards China-EU relations as a strategic force which can serve China’s interests.On the other hand, multilateral, regional and global issues are often where the development of great power relations can be achieved.Since the beginning of the 21st century,major powers have achieved a great deal of progress in cooperation to deal with terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction,financial crisis, serious natural disasters, climate change, energy and resource security, food security, public health security and other global issues.

It is true that the multilateral, regional and global interaction among big countries differs due to changing circumstances.The interaction between major developing countries (as represented by the BRICS countries) and major Western powers focuses on the reform of the international system and re-allocation of the rights.The interaction of China, India and other big countries focuses on the pursuit and maintenance of a favorable international environment for their rise.Sino-Russian interaction focuses on building a comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination.China-EU interaction focuses on the formulation of international rules and norms.

However, China-US interaction has attracted worldwide attention due to its unique international status and influence.Since 2010, China and the United States have found themselves arguing over the identification and prioritization of issues and agenda for the Asia-Pacific region.The US “rebalancing” strategy is oriented toward military security in the Asia-Pacific and in fact has the strategic intention to direct against and even to contain China.In China’s view, the priority agenda for the Asia-Pacific region should be economic development, social progress and political stability,and all countries should focus their efforts on regional cooperation mechanisms.Xi Jinping pointed out that “sustaining development is still of paramount importance to Asia, because only development holds the key to solving major problems and difficulties it faces.It is important that we should shift the growth model, adjust the economic structure, make development more cost effective and make life better for our people.” In view of the Asia-Pacific region as the main area of Sino-US interaction, the positive interaction between the two sides in the region has become one of the priorities of the building of the new type of Sino-US relations.

2.NTGPR calls for specific policies.As world powers, they need both long-term strategies and down-to-earth policies

2012 was a year of elections in the United States, China, France,Japan, Russia and some other major countries, while the year 2013 witnesses the beginning of the world’s far-reaching great power diplomacy.Because of the election-driven politics, the governments of some major countries put policy ahead of strategy and they need desperately to make sure that their policy will deliver as soon as possible so as to gain support of the people and win their re-election.Therefore, the establishment and promotion of NTGPR need first to bring tangible benefits to the people of the countries concerned.The current converging and differing interests of major countries are all related to economic growth, transformation and innovation, and employment.Secondly, efforts should be made to respond effectively to the increasingly serious global issues and the world’s hot issues,such as financial security, food security, the Iranian nuclear issue,the North Korean nuclear issue, etc.Finally, the major powers of the world should translate their various existing strategic dialogue mechanisms into concrete results.The China-US and China-EU strategic dialogue mechanisms, the summit declarations and plans of action of the BRICS countries, and the strategic cooperation of the Atlantic alliance should all be implemented.

3.Coordination of bilateral and multilateral policy interaction

At present, multilateral policy consultation of the foreign and defense departments of major countries is only carried out between allies, such as NATO, the “2 +2” dialogue of the United States,Japan and South Korea.As for specific measures to enhance Sino-US strategic mutual trust, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd suggested that the two countries hold regular summits, appoint diplomatic representatives, identify the main global issues, strengthen the Asia-Pacific mechanisms for economic security, and sustain a mil-to-mil dialogue.These are worth learning and consideration.To this end, China should strengthen its policy consultation and coordination with the relevant parties in order to establish and promote the NTGPR.As the first step, China can initiate dialogues among major countries on policy planning at the sub-ministerial level in order to increase mutual trust and familiarity and then gradually upgrade to dialogues involving diplomatic, economic and defense departments at the cabinet ministerial level Cabinet (an extended version of the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue).