农田水利投资与农业经济增长的动态关系研究

曾茂春，曾维忠

摘要：运用向量自回归与误差修正模型探析了四川省农田水利基建投资和农业经济增长之间的动态关系。结果表明，四川省农田水利基建投资与农业经济增长之间存在长期协整关系；但二者并未形成双向因果关系，农田水利基建投资增长会推动农业经济增长，而农业经济增长并未显著带动农田水利基建投资的增加；同时，农田水利基建投资对农业经济的影响存在滞后效应，并且这种影响力度正在减弱。对此，提出加大水利基建投资力度，特别是末端渠系建设投资，加大水利工程管理体制改革等建议。

关键词：农田水利投资；农业经济增长；动态关系；四川省

中图分类号：F323.9 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2013）05-1210-04

Study on the Dynamic Relationship of Irrigation Investment and Agricultural Economic Growth：With the Sichuan Province as Example

ZENG Mao-chun1，ZENG Wei-zhong2

（1.College of Economics Management， Sichuan Agricultural University，Chengdu 611130，China；

2.Sichuan Economics and Development Research Center，Chengdu 611130，China）

Abstract： The paper studies the dynamic relationship of irrigation investment and agricultural economic growth using VAR and VECM model. The results show that there is a co-integration relationship between irrigation investment and agricultural economic growth in Sichuan province. But there doesn't exist a two-way causality， the irrigation investment can promote the growth of the agricultural economy， while agricultural economic growth is not directly driven by the increase of irrigation investment. At the same time， the influence of irrigation investment on agricultural economic growth has lag effect， and the influence is weakened. In this regard， this paper puts forward some policy recommendations such as increase the intensity of irrigation investment， especially the end of the canal construction， and reform the management system of hydraulic engineering， etc.

Key words： irrigation investment； agricultural economic growth； dynamic relationship； Sichuan province