陕南水资源的自适应可持续发展优化模型设计

拓守恒

摘要：针对陕南地区水资源供需关系，建立了自反馈机制的动态水资源优化配置模型。模型根据历史水资源供需关系数据，采用神经网络模型预测未来水资源供需数据，并根据其建立各年的水资源优化配置模型，通过调节各年水资源配置参数，使其成为持续发展优化模型。

关键词：水资源；优化配置；自反馈；可持续发展；陕南

中图分类号：TV213.4 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2013）05-1171-03

The Design of Optimization Model for Water Resources in Southern Shaanxi Based on Adaptive Sustainable Development

TUO Shou-Heng

（Culture Research Center of Hanjiang River， Shaanxi University of Technology， Hanzhong 723000， Shaanxi， China）

Abstract： Aiming at the relationship of supply and demand of water resources in southern shaanxi， a dynamic water resources optimization model with feedback mechanism was established. Based on the historical data， the neural network model was employed to predict the future data of supply and demand of water resources. And then the water resources optimization allocation model for each year in future was established. Finally， by adjusting the water resources configuration parameters of each year， an effective sustainable development optimization model was obtained.

Key words： water resources； configuration optimization； feedback mechanism； sustainable development； southern Shaanxi