The Nonferrous Metals Industry May Experience Zero Growth in the First Quarter

According to the statistics released on February 7 by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA), the annual average price of nonferrous metals in China in 2012 may be slightly lower than that in 2011. The price fluctuation will continue in this first quarter and even through the first half of 2012 from the fourth quarter of 2011. The economic growth of the industry will significantly fall during the whole year and may experience zero growth in the first quarter.

Not long before, the 12th Five-Year Plan for the Nonferrous Metals Industry published by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the total output of ten kinds of nonferrous metals will be controlled at about 46 million tons by 2015 with an annual average growth of 8%.

Jia Mingxing, the Vice President and Secretary-General of the CNIA, estimates that the overall production of nonferrous metals in China will maintain a steady growth in 2012,but the trade friction will grow, making it more difficult to export the nonferrous metals and causing a dramatic decline in the exports.

According to Jia Mingxing, the CNIA will further improve its service capability and will research, develop and issue the “nonferrous metals industry comprehensive index” in order to comprehensively reflect the economic operation and development trend of the nonferrous metals industry and provide an early warning about the possible turning points and major change in the future economic activities of the industry.

The CNIA statistics show that the total output of ten kinds of nonferrous metals reached 34.38 million tons in 2011, up 9.8% year-on-year; the sales revenue of industrial enterprises above a designated size were 3.9 trillion yuan, up 35.0% year-on-year and the profits were about 199 billion yuan, up 53.1% year-on-year. Despite a rise in output, the growth is declining.The statistics show that the industrial added value of the nonferrous metals enterprises above a designated size grew 14.0% in 2011 over 2010, when calculated by comparable price, down 2.2 percentage points than the average growth rate 16.2% during the 11th Five-Year Plan period and the output growth of ten kinds of nonferrous metals was 4 percentages points lower than the average growth rate 13.8% during the 11th Five-Year Plan period.

Meanwhile, the international competitiveness of the Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry is decreasing due to multiple restrictions such as a dramatic rise in the electricity price and employee wage. Jia Mingxing said that the average production cost of the Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry is currently higher than the international level and the industry has entered the marginal effect age, making it more difficult for electrolytic aluminum enterprises in regions with a high electricity price to conduct normal operations.

In response to the pressure of energy conservation and emissions reduction, the industry will vigorously promote energy conservation and emissions reduction and implement the industrialization and demonstration of energyefficient aluminum trailers, according to Jia Mingxing. Moreover, the industry shall strengthen the prevention of heavy metal pollution.