Aluminum Price to Maintain Upward Trend Thanks to Acceleration of Low-income Housing Construction

According to China’s overall deployment, 36 million units of houses for low-income families will be built during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, with coverage being more than 20%. In 2011, China will complete 10 million sets of low-income housings and refurnished houses in shanty town. On July 26, Qi Ji, vice minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of China, told the media that China will achieve the goal of completing 10 million low-income housings by the end of this November. In the next 5 years, Hunan aims to complete 1.6 million units of low-income housings, and in 2011, Hunan will increase the number of its low-income housings by 447,200 units.

As the promised deadline approaches, Guangzhou and Hunan build low-income housings by leaps and bounds, and low-income housing projects mushroom all over China. High-speed construction of low-income housings will further spur China’s rigid demand for nonferrous metals including copper and aluminum.

According to relevant statistics, the demand of the real estate industry for aluminum accounts for 26% of total aluminum demand. Between January and July of 2011, China achieved an accumulative total output of aluminum of 15,240,000 tons, up by 32.8% accumulatively on a y-o-y basis; in July 2011, it achieved an output of 30.1% y-o-y. In the same period,China’s investment in real estate development stood at RMB 3,187.3 billion, up by 33.6% on a y-o-y basis. Suppose that approximately each square meter consumes 1.4-1.5kg of aluminum alloy, the aluminum consumption will increase by 740,000-780,000 tons for low-income housings that have been started this year. Lowincome housing construction not only contributes to high-speed growth of real estate investment, but also greatly propels aluminum consumption.