Islands of Uncertainty

The Russia-Japan deadlock over four disputed Pacific islands is likely to continue

By WANG LIJIU

Russia and Japan

have been at odds over the sovereignty of the Southern Kuril Islands,known as the Northern Territories in Japan, for more than five decades.Conflicts have sharpened since 2009, especially since November 1, 2010, when Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visited one of the four islands. In February this year,Japanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Seiji Maehara visited Russia, drawing even more attention to the problem. However, this territorial dispute will likely remain unsettled for a long time.

History

The history of the Russia-Japan territorial dispute can be traced back to the 19th century. In 1855, Russia and Japan signed a treaty in which the two countries agreed to share the entire Kuril Islands. Based on the treaty, Japan gained sovereignty over the Southern Kuril Islands—four islands that lie off the northernmost Japanese island of Hokkaido.

In February 1945, the Soviet Union, the United States and Britain signed the Yalta Agreement. According to the agreement,the Kuril Islands would be handed over to the Soviet Union after World War II as a reward for its dispatching troops to fi ght the Japanese. Six months later, the Soviet Army occupied the Southern Kuril Islands after Japan’s defeat. In February 1946, the Soviet Union claimed sovereignty over the islands as part of the Kuril Islands—a claim Japan refused to accept.

A decade later in 1956, the Soviet Union and Japan held negotiations in Moscow. In a joint statement, the Soviet Union said it was ready to return to Japan two of the four islands after the two sides signed a peace treaty. However, Japan insisted on gaining sovereignty of all four islands before such a treaty was signed. As a result, this problem was shelved.

Russia believes it was legitimate for the Soviet Union, a victor of World War II, to take over the Southern Kuril Islands from Japan. Therefore, Moscow has persisted in its view that Japan’s claim of sovereignty over the islands is a total denial of the Yalta Agreement. Russia has pointed out that such a denial would influence not only the Russia-Japan relationship, but also the current international order, including borders between Russia and many of its European neighbors.

During Vladimir Putin’s presidency,he once said Russia was ready to negotiate over the disputed territories and sign a peace treaty with Japan based on the 1956 statement. However, Japan believed Russia “illegally occupied” the four islands when Japan lost the war. It said it would not sign a peace treaty with Russia until these islands were returned. Since neither of the two sides wants to compromise, they have yet to sign a peace treaty to cement bilateral ties.

Fresh tensions

In September 2006, then Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso proposed a new solution. He suggested that Japan get the three smaller islands located near Japan and Russia get the biggest one located near Russia.

In February 2009, Aso, who was then Japan’s prime minister, met with Medvedev.There were no reports about whether he raised his proposal at the meeting. But both agreed to accelerate negotiations on the disputed territories.

Four months later, however, the lower house of the Japanese parliament passed an amendment to a law concerning Japan’s Northern Territories. It was the first legal document to describe the four disputed islands as Japan’s “inherent territory.” The amendment was approved by the upper house within one month and took effect in April 2010.

Russia made a strong response to the amendment, considering it “inappropriate”and “unacceptable” and urging Japan to withdraw it. Japan argued the amendment represented the Japanese Government’s consistent stance, and Russia had no grounds for commenting on the matter.

Moreover, since the United States is trying to expand the U.S.-Japan alliance and strengthen the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan, Japan called on the United States to put the four islands under the cover of the treaty,so as to gain more chips with which to pressure Russia.

(Left)SURVEYING DISPUTED TERRITORY:JapaneseForeign Minister Seiji Maehara in a Coast Guard airplane inspects the four Russian-held islands,over which Japan claims sovereignty, on December 4, 2010

For Russia, Japan’s hard-line stance on the disputed islands is seen not just as a pure territorial matter, but involves other important matters. Russia sees Japan’s behavior as inseparable from the United States’ strategy of strengthening its Asia-Pacific military deployment and the U.S.-Japan alliance in order to improve its leverage against Russia.Therefore, Russia felt it must decisively respond to Japan’s move.

In July 2010, Russia designated September 2 as the of ficial anniversary marking the end of World War II. This was done to commemorate the Soviet Union’s triumph and to remind Japan of its unconditional surrender in 1945. Japan said it was unfortunate Russia had made this move.

On November 1, 2010, Medvedev visited the Kunashir Island—known as the Kunashiri Island in Japan—the first time a Russian head of state had ever visited the disputed islands.Japan protested his visit. Maehara said it would create a serious obstacle to the bilateral relationship. In response, Russia said it was normal for the Russian president to inspect Russian territory and Japan’s statement was unacceptable.

Then Medvedev dispatched several high-ranking officials, including the Russian defense minister and regional development minister, to visit the four islands to map out future defense and economic development programs there, showing Russia’s determination to strengthen control of the four islands.

The Japanese Government designated February 7 “Northern Territories Day” in 1981. On that day this year, some Japanese right-wing groups held demonstrations in front of Russia’s Embassy in Tokyo and burned the Russian national flag. On the same day, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan delivered a speech demanding the return of the Northern Territories. He condemned Medvedev’s visit to one of the islands last November, calling the move“intolerable.” He also said the issue of the Northern Territories is extremely important to Japan’s foreign policy, and reiterated Japan’s commitment to solving this problem.

Thereafter, both sides displayed a tough stance. With Japan accusing Russia of damaging bilateral relations, Russia started to deploy modern weapons on the islands, and planned to promote the development of the islands.

Uncertain prospects

Both sides are losing patience, having spent much time trying to resolve the territorial dispute. Since the Japanese people still hope to take back the Northern Territories, the problem has become a test of Japanese politicians’ wisdom and patience. Therefore, no Japanese political party, or politician, dares to give in, even a little.

Maehara said he would try his best to get the islands back, even if the attempts cost his political future. But his toughness is meant largely to assuage domestic concerns and accumulate political capital. He actually is quite clear about the dif fi culties. It is evident to all that Japan faces mounting diffi culties in taking back the disputed islands,and hopes of regaining them are fading.

In Russia, no one is willing to give up the Southern Kuril Islands. Putin once said not an inch of Russia’s vast land is unwanted, showing the country’s unyielding stance on the territorial dispute. It is obvious there is almost no chance for Russia to make a compromise.

With its growing national strength,Russia is likely to respond to Japan with an even tougher attitude. In fact, Medvedev’s recent gesture hinted Russia might not return to the negotiating table to settle the dispute. Some Russian scholars have pointed out that it makes little difference whether or not a peace treaty is signed between Russia and Japan. They have also said it is not necessary for Russia to return two of the four islands to Japan in accordance with the 1956 statement.

By strengthening military deployment on the four islands and dispatching strategic bombers to patrol the airspace over the islands, Russia is militarily ready for any possible challenge from the Japanese side,casting more shadows on the potential for settling the problem in the future. ■

It is evident to all that Japan faces mounting difficulties in taking back the disputed islands, and hopes of regaining them are fading

DEMONSTRATING SOVEREIGNTY:Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visits a local family during his tour of one of the four disputed islands, known in Russia as the Southern Kuril Islands,on November 1, 2010