Cooperating and Prospering

By ZHAO MINGWEN

Cooperating and Prospering

By ZHAO MINGWEN

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization provides economic and strategic benefits to its members

COURTESY OF ZHAO MINGWEN

Since its establishment in 2001, the Shanghai Cooperation

Organization (SCO)—a regional organization grouping China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan—has grown at a notable pace. With deepening cooperation in areas ranging from security to economy and culture, the SCO has become one of the most dynamic regional organizations worldwide.

Although the organization’s economic and trade cooperation was greatly impacted by the international fnancial crisis, the complementary and mutually benefcial relations among its members have remained unchanged. Instead, their aspirations for deepening cooperation have only grown stronger.

China-Russia benefits

In the nine years since its inception, the organization has held increasingly strategic value for China and Russia—the two powers in the SCO.

The SCO is the only regional organization allowing China to play a relatively bigger role in its activities and receive greater benefits from doing so. It bears strategic signifcance for China in resisting attempts by U.S.-led Western countries to contain China’s peaceful development. And the SCO plays an irreplaceable role in expanding China’s foreign economic and trade cooperation, and ensuring the country’s energy and resource security.

For Russia, the organization is also the most dynamic among the various organizations it has joined. The SCO serves as an important strategic support system as it resists the restraints of the West.

Given that the Russian-led Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) are weakening, the SCO has become one of the most effective platforms for Russia to present its appeals and concerns.

The SCO can help Russia raise its status and enable it to restore infuence in Central Asia, where it competes fiercely with theUnited States.

Under the framework of the SCO, Russia expects to crack down on separatism and religious extremism affecting its political stability with the help of China’s infuence. In the meantime, it aims to prevent the penetration of Western countries led by the United States and increase vitality for economic cooperation in the region.

Although Russia holds no sway over the temptations of the West toward Central Asian resources, it can prevent smaller countries from following suit through its involvement in the SCO and cooperation with China.

In a word, the SCO will remain an important strategic platform for both China’s and Russia’s peaceful development in the foreseeable future.

A dynamic mechanism

The SCO’s dual-engine (China and Russia) mechanism is brimming with vitality. The reasoning behind China’s push for across-the-board SCO cooperation is simple: It strives to promote good neighborly friendship and common development with other member states and ensure regional security and stability. It does not seek dominance in the organization or in Central Asian affairs.

Although China and Russia have competing interests in some economic and trade cooperation programs with Central Asian countries, China remains a partner for Russia.

Moreover, China has always adopted a legitimate, reasonable and fair spirit while competing with Russia. In a number of construction projects, such as a hydropower plant in Tajikistan, China withdrew and conceded the projects to Russia, since Russia had been heavily involved prior to China’s interest.

Therefore, though competition exists between the two countries, it serves only as an interlude rather than a signifcant theme in the mutually benefcial cooperation between these two partners. The competition China and Russia do experience is never similar to conficts between two rivals, and it can often be resolved through friendly consultations.

It is through this consensus that China and Russia can effectively ensure the unhindered operation of the dual-engine mechanism of the SCO.

And the intense external environment of global politics continues to fuel Russia’s enthusiasm for the organization. The 2008 South Ossetia confict, which caused the trust of many Western nations toward Russia to wane, dragged Russia into a diplomatic quagmire. At the same time, Russia’s traditional allies began distancing themselves.

TACKLING TERRORISM: Delegates pledge to strengthen antiterrorism cooperation at a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Regional Counterterrorism Structure in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, on April 2

Not long after Georgia withdrew from the CIS in August 2009, Uzbekistan suspended its activities in the Eurasian Economic Community and refused to sign an agreementon setting up a joint CSTO rapid-reaction force.

Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon also refused to attend the summits of the CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Community held in Russia last February. Rakhmon’s absence caused an unprecedented crisis for Russianled regional organizations.

The reality of Russia’s waning prominence forced it to rely on the complementary role of the SCO more to satisfy its strategic demand, as China will not compete with Russia openly. Instead, China is most likely to develop Central Asian resources jointly with Russia.

Holding the organization’s rotating presidency, Russia hosted the SCO Summit in Yekaterinburg and the SCO’s Special Conference on Afghanistan in 2009. Both produced positive results.

Reliance on Central Asia

Over the years, Central Asian member countries have come to rely on the SCO on an increasing basis. Central Asian political elites have always held that working jointly with China and Russia—two nuclear powers and permanent members of the UN Security Council—can guarantee their security.

Taking advantage of the SCO’s influence, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are likely to become equal partners of the world’s big powers.

Since U.S.-backed “color revolutions”overthrew governments in several CIS countries in the early 2000s, the United States has not given up efforts to promote Western-style democracy in the region. And it continues to use its presence to pressure Central Asian governments. Therefore, Central Asian countries are more willing to gather in the SCO, which does not impose democracy requirements on them and allows them to act on their own accord.

In this regard, for Central Asian countries the SCO is a realistic and reliable means—or perhaps the only means—of preventing“color revolutions” from happening within their own borders.

For Central Asian countries the SCO is a realistic and reliable means—or perhaps the only means—of preventing “color revolutions” from happening within their own borders

SUMMIT MOOD: A poster for the 10th Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit isdisplayed in Tashkent on June 4, a week before its opening in the Uzbek capital. Central Asian countries have shown growing passion for the regional organization

The key point is Central Asian countries can balance their relations with Russia and the United States by making use of the SCO. Given the sharp disagreements between Russia and the United States, Central Asian countries often fnd it diffcult to express their true stances freely in organizations led by Russia, such as the CIS. The SCO provides them a new forum to express their neutral stance on a number of hotly contested issues.

When the South Ossetia confict broke out, the SCO issued a declaration based on actual situations. The organization’s declaration supported Russia’s continued and active role in the region without a widened confrontation with the international community. Thus it greatly reduced the pressure Central Asian countries felt from Russia, and prevented them from being caught in the embarrassing situation of individually declaring their positions.

What’s more, in the future Central Asia will often come across the question: Russia or the United States? Actually, the general idea of being fed up with Russia was on the rise among most Central Asian state leaders as early as the beginning of 2001. They instinctively strived for a way to minimize the role of Moscow. The establishment of the SCO provided such a harbor. With the SCO, they could restrain Russia’s infuence in their individual countries and ease part of the traditional pressures from Moscow.

Especially after the Russia-Georgia confict in South Ossetia, leaders of former Soviet republics became more cautious to maintain good relationships with the Kremlin while keeping close contact with the West, as they were unsure of Moscow’s intentions or the possibility of Russian trade restrictions.

That’s why many passionate remarks on the SCO have come from Central Asian countries—rather than Russia or China—in recent years. For instance, while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are often indifferent about conferences held by the CIS and other organizations, they are active participating members in the SCO.

Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan were excited about hosting the SCO Summit and the SCO Prime Minister’s Meeting in 2010 respectively. Both established special institutions to actively prepare for the meetings.

Economic prospects

Although the international fnancial crisis took a heavy toll on the economic cooperation of the SCO, the organization maintains huge development potential in bilateral and multilateral economic and trade cooperation, thanks to China’s abundant capital and market, as well as Russia’s and Central Asia’s advantages in energy, agricultural products (grain, oil crops and cotton) and mineral resources (gold, uranium, copper and tungsten).

The SCO economic circle remains one of the most dynamic regions in the world economy. And the economic cooperation among its member states has continued and will continue to maintain its sound development momentum. The China-Central Asia gas pipeline linking China, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan was completed in December 2009, raising the multilateral cooperation level of the SCO to a new high.

The facts prove China is not only an engine for world economic recovery, but also an important fnancial source for SCO member states’economic development and project investment.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev once said China is one of Russia’s most important and economically promising partners. China is not only a big market for Russian industry, but could also be an investor in the Russian economy as well. Medvedev emphasized Russia should give priority to cooperation with China now and in the future.

The author is director of the China Center for Periphery Security Studies under the China Institute of International Studies