Global Economic Challenges of Aging老龄化的全球经济挑战

H.S. 博尔吉/文　薛洪君/译

The social and economic implications1 of an aging population are becoming increasingly apparent in many industrialized nations around the globe. With populations in places such as North America， Western Europe， and Japan aging more rapidly than ever before， policymakers are confronted with several interrelated issues， including a decline in the working-age population， increased health care costs， unsustainable pension commitments2， and changing demand drivers within the economy. These issues could significantly undermine3 the high living standard enjoyed in many advanced economies.

人口老龄化带来的社会与经济影响在全球多个工业化国家正日渐显露。随着北美、西欧和日本等地人口老龄化速度空前加快，决策者们面临一些相互关联的问题，包括劳动年龄人口减少、医疗保健成本增加、养老金投入难以为继和经济内需拉动因素改变等。这些问题或将严重影响许多发达经济体一贯享受的高水准生活。

Advanced industrialized societies are growing older

发达工业社会日渐衰老

In 2020， there were 727 million people aged 65 or older. This number is expected to more than double by 2050.

2020年，其65岁及以上人口数量为7.27亿。预期到2050年，这一数字将会翻一番还多。

The decline in the working-age population

劳动年龄人口减少

A rapidly aging population means there are fewer working-age people in the economy. This leads to a supply shortage of qualified workers， making it more difficult for businesses to fill in-demand roles. An economy that cannot fill in-demand occupations4 faces adverse consequences， including declining productivity， higher labor costs， delayed business expansion， and reduced international competitiveness. In some instances， a supply shortage may push up wages， thereby causing wage inflation and creating a vicious cycle of price/wage spiral5.

人口快速老齡化，意味着经济结构中的劳动适龄人口变少。这势必造成合格劳动者的数量短缺，使企业更难填补空缺岗位。一个经济体不能补足职位空缺，无疑会面临诸多不良后果，包括生产率下降、劳动力成本上升、业务扩张受阻和国际竞争力减退等等。某些情况下，人力供应短缺还会推动工资水平上涨，引发工资虚高，造成物价/工资持续飙升的恶性循环。

To compensate6， many countries look to immigration to keep their labor forces well supplied. While countries such as Australia， Canada， and the United Kingdom are attracting more highly skilled immigrants， integrating them into the workforce can be a challenge because domestic employers may not recognize immigrant credentials and work experience， especially if they were obtained in countries outside of North America， Western Europe， and Australia.

作为补救措施，一些国家考虑通过移民来维系劳动力无虞供应。像澳大利亚、加拿大和英国等几个国家就在吸揽高技术移民，不过要让他们融入劳动力队伍也许是个难题，因为国内雇主未必认可移民的学历和工作经验，尤其不认可在北美、西欧和澳大利亚之外取得的学历和工作经验。

Increase in health care costs

医疗保健支出增加

Given that demand for healthcare rises with age， countries with rapidly aging populations must allocate more money and resources to their health care systems. Healthcare spending as a share of gross domestic product （GDP） is already high in most advanced economies; one challenge that advanced economies face is to ensure that when they increase spending， healthcare outcomes actually improve.

鉴于医疗保健需求随年岁的增长而增长，人口快速老龄化国家必须为本国医保体系配置更多资金和资源。对大部分发达经济体来说，医保开支在国内生产总值中的占比已经偏高；当下发达经济体面临的一项挑战便是，确保医保支出的增加真正能让医保成果出现提升。

Additionally， the healthcare sector in many advanced economies faces similar issues， including labor and skills shortages and increased demand for at-home care. All of these cost escalators7 can make it more difficult for existing systems to handle the increased prevalence of chronic diseases， while also addressing the needs of large and growing populations of older adults.

另外，很多发达经济体内的医保行业也遭逢大致同样的问题，包括劳动力及技术人员短缺、居家护理的需求趋热等。这些方向的支出均有增无减，恐怕会让现行体系处理慢性病普发多发的局面时愈发捉襟见肘，且不说还要应付数量庞大且仍不断壮大的老年人群体的需求。

Increase in dependency ratio

抚养系数不断上升

Countries with large populations of older adults depend on smaller pools of workers from which to collect taxes to pay for higher health costs， pension benefits， and other publicly funded programs. This is becoming more common in advanced economies where retirees live on fixed incomes with much smaller tax brackets8 than workers. The combination of lower tax revenue and higher spending commitments on health care， pensions， and other benefits is a major concern for advanced industrialized nations.

拥有大量老年人口的国家劳动力人数较少，国家通过向他们征税来支付更高的医疗保健开支、养老金和其他公共开支项目。这一现象目前在发达经济体中越发稀松平常，那里的退休人员靠固定养老金生活，其税档比劳动人口低不少。较低的税款收入加上走高的医疗保健、养老金及其他必须投入的福利性开支，是发达工业国家的一个主要问题。

Changes to the economy

经济生活发生改变

An economy with a significant share of older adults and retirees has different demand drivers than an economy with a higher birth rate and a larger working-age population. For example， rapidly aging populations tend to have greater demands for health care services and retirement homes. Although this is not necessarily negative， economies may face challenges transitioning to markets that are increasingly driven by goods and services linked to older people. As advanced economies become older over the next 15 years， it remains to be seen whether immigration will fill the voids in sectors left by aging populations or whether the broader economies will have to adjust to changing demographics9.

老年人與退休者占比很大的经济体，与生育率较高、拥有较多劳动适龄人口的经济体相比，有着不同的需求驱动因素。例如，快速老龄化人口往往对医疗保健服务和养老院有更多需求。虽然这未必一定是坏事，但经济体却要面临市场转型的挑战，即市场越来越受与老年人相关商品与服务的驱动。随着发达经济体在未来15年间更趋老龄化，靠移民能否填补人口老龄化留出的行业空白，更广泛的经济会否被迫调整以适应人口特征的变化，这一切都尚待观察。

Which countries have the largest percentage of older adults？

哪国老年人比例最高？

Japan is the country with the highest proportion of its population composed of older adults， with 28.2% of people being 65 or older. Other countries with large percentages of older adults include Italy， with 22.8% of its population 65 or older， and Finland， with 21.9%.

老年人在总人口中占比最高的国家是日本，65岁及以上人口占到28.2%。其他老年人占比很高的国家有意大利，65岁及以上人数占人口的22.8%；以及芬兰，占比为21.9%。

What is the youngest population in the world？

世界人口最年轻的地方在哪？

The worlds youngest countries are mostly in Africa， with Niger having the lowest median age of just 15.2 years. Having a young population can be both an opportunity and challenge for nations.

世界上人口最年轻的国度大多在非洲，其中以尼日尔的中位数年龄最低，只有15.2岁。拥有年轻的人口对一个国家来说可谓机会与挑战并存。

How can countries deal with aging popu-lations？

各国该如何处理人口老龄化问题？

Countries are currently exploring a number of different policies to adapt to economic shifts due to aging populations. A common proposal set forth includes delaying the age of retirement， which effectively lengthens the amount of time that individuals spend working. Other possibilities include decreasing social security benefits， in cases where there are potential deficits， and increase taxes to pay for them.

各国正在探索各式各样的政策以适应人口老龄化带来的经济改变。一项众所周知的方案当属延迟退休年龄，这可以有效延长个人投入劳动的时间。其他可能途径包括，出现赤字苗头时削减社会保障性福利，并增加税收来支付福利。

The bottom line10

最重要的事实

Many industrialized nations are grappling11 with aging populations， which often correspond with a decline in working-age adults and a rise in health care costs. These issues can cause economic strains， particularly when it means that a smaller proportion of the total population has to bear significant social safety net costs. Countries with aging economies are currently exploring a number of possible paths to adapt to these and other economic shifts.

很多工業化国家正疲于应对人口老龄化问题，这一问题往往伴随着适龄劳动人口减少与医疗保健支出上涨。这类难题会带来经济压力，当总人口中占比较小的一部分人群要承担大部分社保净成本时，尤其如此。同属老龄化经济体的各国正在探索各种可能途径，以适应上述及其他一些经济改变。

（译者为“《英语世界》杯”翻译大赛获奖者）

1 implication含意。  2 commitment必须做（或处理）的事情。  3 undermine逐渐损害（或削弱）。

4 occupation职业，工作。  5 spiral恶性螺旋上升（亦作vicious spiral）。  6 compensate 补偿；弥补。

7 escalator逐步上升的人（或事物）；使（某事物）上升的人（或工具）。  8 bracket（年龄、收入等的）等级段，档次。

9 demographics人口统计数据（如年龄、性别、家庭人数、家庭收入等）。

10 the bottom line底线；最重要的事实。  11 grapple努力克服（或解决、完成、对付）。