Will China-U.S.Relations Stabilize After the San Francisco Summit?

By Li Shimeng

Mutually beneficial cooperation or antagonism and confrontation?That is the question

Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with U.S.President Joe Biden at Filoli Estate in the U.S.state of California,on November 15,2023.(RAO AIMIN)

At 1:35 p.m.local time on November 15,a four-hour summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S.President Joe Biden concluded at Filoli Estate in San Francisco.At a press briefing after the meeting,Wang Yi,member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs,said that “the two presidents had a very good,comprehensive,and in-depth meeting.”

What key consensus did China and the U.S.achieve at this summit? Can China-U.S.relations stabilize for recovery?

‘The World Is Big Enough to Accommodate Both Countries’

This was another visit to the United States by President Xi Jinping after a hiatus of six years and another face-toface meeting between the two presidents one year after their last one in Bali.After the Bali meeting,China-U.S.relations fell to a low point due to the“balloon incident.” To facilitate this meeting,both countries made great efforts and held several high-level meetings in advance.During his visit to the U.S.from October 26 to 28,Wang Yi noted that the main theme of his visit was“returning to Bali” and “leading to San Francisco.” After the meeting,he said that given the unique arrangements of the meeting,the attention from the international community as well as China and the U.S.,and the importance of the meeting itself,it was indeed a summit meeting of strategic significance and far-reaching impact.The U.S.side stressed in particular that it was “a summit meeting”between the two nations.

In an atmosphere of mutual respect,the two heads of state engaged in an exchange of views on strategic and overarching issues critical to the direction of China-U.S.relations and on major issues affecting world peace and development.President Xi delivered a comprehensive and authoritative presentation on China’s position on stabilizing and improving China-U.S.relations,with the most important point of making the right choice for history.He pointed out that China and the U.S.are faced with two options in the era of global transformations unseen in a century: One is to enhance solidarity and cooperation and join hands to meet global challenges and promote global security and prosperity,and the other is to cling to the zero-sum mentality,provoke rivalry and confrontation,and drive the world toward turmoil and division.Majorcountry competition cannot solve the problems facing China and the U.S.or the world.The world is big enough to accommodate both countries,and one country’s success is an opportunity for the other.

“Are China and the U.S.partners or rivals? Should they engage in mutually beneficial cooperation or antagonism and confrontation? This is the fundamental question on which disastrous mistakes must be avoided,” said Wang Yi.

Qian Feng,a researcher at the National Strategy Institute at Tsinghua University,opined that the most important and core task of the meeting was to establish a strategic framework for the development of China-U.S.relations.It is essential to clarify the three principles of mutual respect,peaceful coexistence and winwin cooperation for China-U.S.relations to advance steadily in the long run for cooperation in a wider range of areas.

U.S.Should Respect China’s Core Interests

Resumption of military-tomilitary communication was an important concern for the U.S.at this meeting.Ahead of his departure for San Francisco on November 14,President Biden was asked about his expectations for the summit.He said that the goal of the meeting was “to get back on a normal course of corresponding,being able to pick up the phone and talk to one another when there’s another crisis,being able to make sure our militaries still have contact with one another.”

At the meeting,the two presidents agreed to promote and strengthen dialogue and cooperation between the two countries in various areas including the resumption of high-level military-tomilitary communication,the China-U.S.Defense Policy Coordination Talks,the China-U.S.Military Maritime Consultative Agreement meetings,and telephone conversations between theater commanders on the basis of equality and respect.

Military-to-military talks between China and the U.S.were interrupted by Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022.“Resumption of militaryto-military dialogue and communication mechanisms serves the common interest of both countries,” said Qian Feng,“And the U.S.is expected to take concrete action.You can’t call for easing crises in speech while creating more crises in action.That kind of behavior increases the risk of accidental conflict between the two countries when their ships and aircraft meet in the East and South China Seas.”

“China has always endeavored to build consensus through sincere exchanges,”said Qian.The organizer of the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum,which took place from October 29 to 31,invited the U.S.Department of Defense.The U.S.side did send officials to the forum,but not high-level ones.Qian also noted that U.S.officials were not involved in public activities at the forum.Huanqiu.com reported that despite the public pleas by U.S.Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to open up lines of communication (phone calls,meetings,and talks) with senior Chinese military leaders,he did not attend the forum.He missed the very opportunity he claimed to be seeking,demonstrating the nature of his “sincerity.”

Visitors from China carry Chinese and American flags as they walk down Mission Street towards the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit held at the Moscone Center in San Francisco,on November 14,2023.(JESSICA CHRISTIAN)

Qian added that Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan seriously violated China’s core interests.Restoration of communication between the two militaries will have to proceed gradually in due order.Turbulence in cross-Straits relations has always resulted first in setbacks in the military relations between the two countries,which tend to be the last to recover.

At the latest summit meeting,President Xi elaborated on China’s principled position on the Taiwan question.He pointed out that the Taiwan question remains the most important and most sensitive issue in China-U.S.relations.China takes the positive statements made by the U.S.in the Bali meeting seriously.The U.S.should take real actions to honor its commitment of not supporting“Taiwan independence,” stop arming Taiwan,and support China’s peaceful reunification.China will realize reunification,and this is unstoppable.

Creating Opportunities for Common Development

In addition to the resumption of military contact and communication,the two sides also agreed to promote and strengthen dialogue and cooperation in other areas including China-U.S.government talks on AI and the establishment of a working group on counternarcotics cooperation.The abuse of opioids such as fentanyl and border smuggling have become a social crisis that cannot be ignored in the U.S.Qian Feng thinks that the U.S.government is eager to cooperate with China in this area to ease its own pressure.According to the U.S.Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC),over 150 people die every day from overdoses related to synthetic opioids like fentanyl.

In the area of cultural and peopleto-people exchanges,the two sides agreed to work on increasing scheduled passenger flights early next year and expand educational,student,youth,cultural,sports and business exchanges.Before the San Francisco meeting,the Chinese side released some positive signals.The Civil Aviation Administration of China announced earlier that starting from November 9,direct regular passenger flights between China and the U.S.would gradually increase from 48 to 70 per week during the 2023/2024 winter-spring flight season.

In the area of global governance,China and the U.S.reached consensus on jointly addressing the climate crisis,one of the highlights of the summit.The two presidents underscored the importance of working together to accelerate efforts to tackle the climate crisis and welcomed recent positive discussions between their respective special envoys for climate,including on national actions to reduce emissions in the 2020s,common approaches toward a successful COP28,and operationalization of the Working Group on Enhancing Climate Action in the 2020s.Before the summit on November 15,the two sides released the Sunnylands Statement on Enhancing Cooperation to Address the Climate Crisis,in which they agreed to jointly tackle global warming by ramping up wind,solar,and other renewable energy with the goal of displacing fossil fuels.

President Xi also clarified China’s position on issues related to economics,trade,and technology.He suggested that attempts to curb or suppress China on economics,trade,and technology are creating risks instead of “de-risking.” These misguided actions and the ensuing uncertainty in China-U.S.relations have become the biggest risk.

Qian Feng pointed out that after the San Francisco meeting,the U.S.may show some flexibility on tariffs,but it may be difficult to enact fundamental changes in the export control of cutting-edge technologies and restrictions on China’s high-tech development.

“The U.S.abuse of export controls has been opposed by many U.S.entrepreneurs,and the tariffs imposed have inevitably exacerbated inflation in the U.S.,” he said.“Only when China and the U.S.cooperate on economics and trade can they jointly contribute to global economic recovery and financial stability.”