New Developments in the Middle East amid Great Changes:Features, Challenges and Prospects

Wang Lincong

As the international landscape evolves at a faster pace in recent years, the strategic autonomy of the Middle Eastern countries has strengthened.Giving priority to development has become a common choice of countries in the region.There’s a stronger “wave of reconciliation”.The Middle Eastern countries has gained a new position in the international system,becoming an important force in the Global South.At the same time,amid changes unseen in a century,there are new concepts and solutions to improve global governance and solve global and regional challenges,especially China’s Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative, and Global Civilization Initiative.They can help the Middle East get rid of the security and development dilemma, and shape a “new Middle East”.

NEW FEATURES OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST

New changes in the development of the Middle East region are mainly:Middle East countries have given priority to development, relations between countries in the region have eased, and national strategic autonomy has been significantly enhanced.

I.Pursuing development as priority at national level

The Middle East countries are taking the opportunities brought by the Fourth Industrial Revolution and focusing on people’s livelihood and governance in pursuing development.Facing the regional security and development dilemma,the Middle East countries urgently need to ride on the trend of the new technological revolution.Elites and the general public of Middle East countries have realized that human society is entering the intelligent age from the information age.If they fail to catch up with the new industrial revolution, it will be very difficult to achieve high-quality and sustainable development.They regarded economic and social development as a key to solving domestic problems and enhancing international influence.Therefore, boosting development and national governance capacity has become a consensus among the ruling elites and ordinary people in the Middle East.Countries have launched medium- and longterm development plans, such as Türkiye’s Vision 2023, Egypt’s Vision 2030 and Saudi Arabian Vision 2030.In addition, they have also put forward development strategies for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, such as the National Strategy on Artificial Intelligence of Egypt and Industry 4.0 Strategy of the United Arab Emirates(UAE).

II.Promoting reconciliation at regional level

Since 2019, hostility between the regional camps triggered by the Arab upheaval has started to ease.In July 2019, officials from Iran and the UAE met in the Iran capital Tehran to discuss maritime security issues, marking a de-escalation in the confrontation between the regional camps.Deescalation between regional powers picked up speed since 2021.On the one hand, reconciliation was reached between the camps supporting and opposing Muslim Brotherhood.On January 5, 2021, Emir of Qatar travelled to Saudi Arabia for the 41st Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit.In November 2021 and June 2022,the then Crown Prince Zayed of UAE and Crown Prince Mohammed of Saudi Arabia were invited to visit Türkiye.In the first half of 2022, Turkish President Erdogan visited the UAE and Saudi Arabia upon invitation.In addition, the camp led by Iran and the Saudi-led anti-Iranian camp reconciled.In 2022, Kuwait and the UAE resumed diplomatic relations of ambassador level with Iran.Saudi Arabia and Iran started negotiations from April 2021.With China’s effective mediation efforts, the two countries issued a joint declaration in March 2023 agreeing to restore diplomatic relations.On September 5, Saudi Arabia and Iran exchanged ambassadors, completing the last step in the resumption of diplomatic relations.This is a major symbol of the reconciliation wave in the Middle East.It also facilitated Syria’s return to the Arab League, pointing to the continuing reconciliation in the Middle East.

On September 10, 2023, Saudi Ambassador to Iran presented a copy of his credentials to Iranian Foreign Minister, and the two countries announced the resumption of diplomatic relations under China’s mediation.

The reconciliation wave in the Middle East is a rational choice of the regional countries based on their security and economic assessments.In terms of security, continued military conflict and confrontation between the regional powers not only stand in the way towards political objectives and strategic gains, but also worsens the security or increases diplomatic isolation.In terms of economy, the involvement of Middle East powers in the regional conflicts costs huge financial resources and has negative economic, social and political impacts.The economic slump of Türkiye and the large-scale protests in Iran are enormously challenging to the political stability.Saudi Arabia and the UAE are at a critical stage of economic diversification and transformation.Spending a lot of money on security diverts the money that should go to economic transformation.Therefore, the regional countries have chosen reconciliation to create a peaceful environment for development.It is worth noting that strategic contraction in the Middle East and dwindling US influence in regional affairs have made US drift away from regional allies.On the contrary, China’s long-term efforts to promote peace and the role of“guarantor” in the Saudi-Iran reconciliation have become an important external factor for the Middle East countries to seek reconciliation.

III.Enhancing strategic autonomy at global level

In today’s world, the post-cold war landscape is evolving faster.The US global hegemony is on decline.Emerging markets and developing countries are rising as a group.Conventional powers from outside the region is less willing to intervene in Middle East affairs and they are less able to do so.This gives Middle East countries greater room for strategic autonomy.Political elites of Middle East countries generally believe that the world is moving towards multipolarity.For example, Investment Minister Al-Falih of Saudi Arabia said in an interview that “a multi-polar global order has emerged”.In addition, the “global power competition”symbolized by the Ukraine crisis has elevated the status of Middle East countries in the world.The Middle East has become an important alternative source of oil and gas to replace Russia.Global powers are vying more fiercely for political and economic influence in Middle East countries.The Middle East countries have a larger room for strategic maneuver.They thus realize that they have more strategic options and autonomy than ever before.

The stronger strategic autonomy of Middle East countries is manifested in two aspects.First, they have more bargaining power with global powers.In the past, Middle East countries, with limited strategic autonomy, often followed the policies of extra-regional powers.In recent years, they no longer act at the beck and call of the US.This is as evident in the Ukraine crisis.Saudi Arabia,a traditional US ally, promoted several rounds of reduction in “OPEC+”crude oil production despite the US opposition.Türkiye, another ally of the US, acted against the US on NATO expansion.Second, the Middle East countries are pursuing a diversified and balanced diplomatic strategy.In history, they often chose to align and bind themselves with a major power outside the region.In recent years, they are actively engaging various political forces.This is especially obvious in relations with the traditional US allies.For example, Saudi Arabia still values its security and strategic relationship with the United States, while elevating its military ties with Russia and strategic ties with the European Union.It is also actively developing energy, economic, and strategic cooperation with countries such as China and India.In addition,Middle East countries have tried to reform the Western-dominated international governance system by actively joining multilateral organizations that represent the interests of developing countries.In July 2023,Iran formally joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).In August 2023, the BRICS Summit announced expansion to six new members, including four Middle East countries, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran,and the UAE.This reflects Middle East countries are actively involved in shaping the international system and becoming a part of the important force in the Global South.

CHALLENGES TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MIDDLE EAST

Development of the Middle East region is enjoying historic opportunities.But it still faces a series of economic, diplomatic, security and other problems and challenges.

I.Structural economic problems

Since the Arab upheaval, most of the countries in the Middle East suffer population expansion, rising inequality, shrinking middle class, high unemployment, rampant corruption,low social security level, and lack of economic vitality.These serious problems still hamper the socio-economic development of Middle East countries.Most of the non-oil-rich countries have a heavier financial burden.The oil-rich countries are under pressure to diversify their economies.As many countries have adopted carbon-neutral strategies, the global energy transition is accelerating.The Middle East, represented by the Arab countries of the Gulf, are getting less dividends from oil and gas resources.Although these countries have put forward economic diversification strategies, the progress is slow.

In addition, the Middle East countries are still catching up in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.They lag far behind the leaders in terms of capacity.Most of the Middle Eastern countries have not adapted well to the Fourth Industrial Revolution.In areas such as artificial intelligence,network construction, e-government,and e-commerce, the Arab world is below the world average.

II.Persistent external intervention

Because of the power imbalance between Middle East countries and global powers, Middle East countries don’t have enough countermeasures against the intervention of the global powers.From the end of the Cold War to the Iraq War, the hegemony of the United States in the Middle East was at its prime.In recent years, the U.S.influence in the Middle East has declined, but it still tries its best to cling on to hegemony in the Middle East.On the one hand,the United States suppressed anti-American forces in the region and undermined the development and stability of relevant countries.The US frequently launched economic sanctions against the Middle East countries and non-state actors, such as Iran, Syria, and the Houthis.This not only impeded the development of these countries, but also resulted in severe humanitarian disasters.It is noteworthy that, although the US no longer easily conducts large-scale military interventions in the Middle East, it frequently engages in indirect military interventions, such as proxy wars, drone wars and mercenary wars.This has exacerbated tensions in the region, destabilized the region and disrupted regional peace.

On the other hand, the United States encouraged strategic competition among major countries in the Middle East and obstructs normalcooperation between regional countries and large countries from other regions.The US pressured its traditional allies and tried to undercut their cooperation with Russia and China in the military, scientific, technological and economic areas.The US rallied its allies to set up small,exclusive multilateral mechanisms in the Middle East.In July 2022, the US held a summit with Israel, the UAE,and India to form the I2U2 Quartet to strengthen cooperation in water,energy, transportation, space, health,and food security.At the G20 summit in September 2023, the United States proposed the program of India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) for closer cooperation in infrastructure, energy, data, trade and other areas with relevant countries.Obviously, it’s intended to suppress China’s Belt and Road initiative.The small multilateral circle promoted by the US in the Middle East is pseudomultilateralism and de facto hegemony in the disguise of multilateralism.It is not conducive to normal cooperation in the Middle East, nor is it in line with the interests of the Middle East countries and people.

A child stands next to a damaged building in the southern Gaza Strip city of Khan Younis on November 12, 2023.

III.Multiple security risks

Due to long-standing external intervention, complex conflicts within and between countries, and lack of security cooperation mechanisms and strategic mutual trust, the Middle East region has acute and complex structural security problems.

As of 2023, the conventional security problems in the Middle East are still severe.A new round of violent conflict erupted between Palestine and Israel.Israel carried out a large-scale military operation in the West Bank city of Jenin, resulting in hundreds of deaths.On October 7, 2023, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) fired a large number of rockets into the southern and central regions of Israel, and its militants entered the territory of Israel to carry out military operations.On the same day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared a “war state” in Israel.The new round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues, causing unprecedented casualties.It demonstrates once again that it’s imperative to promote the two-State solution to settle the problem of the century.

Meanwhile, non-conventional security issues in the Middle East have become more prominent.The massive earthquakes in Türkiye and Syria in February resulted in 50,000 deaths and hundreds of billions of dollars of economic losses.In September, Libya suffered a devastating flood that killed more than 10,000 people.This is a result of both frequent extreme weathers in the Middle East, and the lack of public service due to Libya civil war.

PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Historically, the Middle East has been undergoing profound changes of the times and history.Development, strategic autonomy, reconciliation are becoming the consensus of more and more Middle Eastern countries.This will change the course of development and help realize peace and development in the region.However, long-standing security, development and governance deficits cannot be removed overnight.In terms of security, the “reconciliation wave” in the Middle East is only one positive step to improving security in the Middle East.Due to the lack of strategic mutual trust and the institution for security cooperation, the security challenges in the Middle East are still daunting.In terms of development,structural problems in the economies of the Middle East countries have not been alleviated.Differences in resource endowments, strategic choices and governance capabilities have led to different outcomes in economic development.

Peace and development in the Middle East cannot be achieved without the efforts of the countries and peoples in the region, and the support of countries outside the region and the international community.Under the new conditions, China has played an important and constructive role.China and the Middle East countries have deepened political communication and mutual trust, strengthened the synergy of development strategies and economic cooperation, and upgraded security exchanges and cooperation.China’s relations with the Middle East have entered a new stage, promoting regional peace and development.The China-Saudi Arabia, China-GCC and China-Arabia summits held in December 2022 agreed to upgrade China-Arab relations and build a China-Arab community with a shared future on the basis of strategic cooperation.This has further boosted the strategic mutual trust and cooperation between China and the Middle East.A number of Middle East countries applied to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS, demonstrating their will to look east and travel east.

The trade between China and the Middle East countries continues to increase.Investment cooperation is rising despite global slowdown.Landmark projects are eye-catching.Cooperation along the whole energy industrial chain and in new energy continues to grow.In 2022, the trade volume between China and the Middle East countries exceeded 500 billion US dollars, and China became the largest trading partner of 12 Arab countries.At the 10th Entrepreneurs Conference and the 8th Investment Seminar of the China-Arab Cooperation Forum on June 11and12, 2023 in the Saudi capital Riyadh, China and Arab countries signed more than 30 cooperation projects with a total value of over RMB 70 billion.

In addition, China has closer cooperation with Middle East countries in conventional and non-conventional security.China provides more public goods to the Middle East.The Chinese navy has been operating escort in the Gulf of Aden for 15 years.China’s participation in the UN peacekeeping operations in Lebanon are widely acclaimed.More importantly,by facilitating the resumption of diplomatic relations between the Saudi Arabia and Iran, China has played a key role as a peacemaker in the Middle East, which has contributed to the peace and development of the region.

Against accelerating evolution of the world situation, the development of the Middle East region is enjoying historic opportunities.China and the Middle East will follow the vision of a human community with a shared future, implement the GDI, the GSI and the GCI to deepen exchanges, explore new cooperation, so as to jointly promote peace and development in the region and beyond.

First, we will enhance shared development through the GDI and the BRI.China and the Middle East have similar economic development concepts, complementary economic structures and a strong will to cooperate.Both sides are working together to meet the development opportunities and challenges of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.China will continue to pursue high-quality Belt and Road cooperation with Middle East countries and deepen cooperation in big data,AI, green energy, aerospace and other new technologies, new industries, new infrastructure and new energy.This will help realize shared economic development, improve global governance system for stronger, greener and healthier global development.

Second, we should act on the GSI to jointly strengthen security.With the reconciliation wave and the increased strategic autonomy, China and the Middle East countries have been building a security cooperation mechanism and a security community in the Middle East.The basic principles of the mechanism may include: the centrality of regional country, cooperation with other countries; start with non-sensitive issues, taking into account both conventional and non-conventional security issues; and flexible organization structure, inclusive membership, and credibility.This will help resolve the long-standing structural security problems in the Middle East.

Third, we should act on the GCI to forge mutual learning among civilizations.Upholding the spirit of respecting both one’s own culture and the culture of others to advance human civilization, we will tap into the wisdom of the outstanding traditional Chinese and Arab-Islamic cultures,and endow them with the spirit of the times and universal significance.We shall strengthen exchanges and mutual learning between China and Middle Eastern civilizations, deepen exchanges of governance experience,jointly advance modernization, jointly oppose the civilization hegemony and discourse from some western countries, and advocate the common values of humanity.Along this line,we will work together to build a prosperous and stable new Middle East.

On September 21 to 24, 2023, the 6th China-Arab States Expo was held in Yinchuan, Ningxia.