CHINESE ECONOMIC PROSPECTS IN 2022

By Bian Yongzu

T he Chinese economy is estimated to have maintained a high growth rate of about 8 percent with the COVID-19 pandemic basically under control in 2021.At the same time, the triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shock,and weakening expectations gradually emerged as the quarterly economic growth rate endured an obvious downward slope, an indication that China’s economic development will face more difficulties in 2022.Therefore, the Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2021 noted that economic work should“prioritize stability while pursuing progress,” which set “stability” as the tone for economic development in 2022.

The internal and external environment for China’s economic development in 2022 will be very different from 2021.From a global perspective, the international macroeconomic environment is getting more complex and volatile.Although the world economy achieved a solid rebound in 2021, inflation has become an obvious problem in the United States and some other countries because of years of loose monetary policy and the impact of the pandemic on the global industrial chain.This trend is also accelerating the pace of monetary policy shift.At the same time, more and more countries are implementing a policy of coexistence with the virus to restart their economies.External demand for Chinese commodities may weaken.

From an internal perspective, the Omicron variant has exerted more pressure on China’s “dynamic zero-case” policy (the strategy to clear COVID-19 infections in a timely manner).A delicate balance between pandemic containment and economic development is required to ensure basic smooth performance of the economy.Meanwhile,against the backdrop of accelerated economic structure transformation,the triple pressure that China faces internally will become increasingly heavy.

It can be foreseen that China’s economic development will grapple with great pressure in 2022.

It can be foreseen thatChina’s economic development will grapple with great pressure in 2022.However, the Chinese economy has taken the lead in rebounding and recovering from the pandemic with relatively smooth and orderly operation of its supply chain and industrial chain,fully demonstrating the great potential of the Chinese market and the resilience of its economy, which will contribute to its domestic growth and global competitive advantage.Therefore, on the basis of “stability,” the Chinese economy is most likely to maintain medium-high growth in 2022.

How will the Chinese economy “prioritize stability while pursuing progress?”First, it is necessary to create a better external environment with flexible and prudent monetary policy for economic growth.Second, it is imperative to use proactive fiscal policy to improve domestic demand and support stable economic development.Additionally, it will be important to strengthen endogenous impetus to provide more guarantees for the “sustained” growth of the Chinese economy.

Improvement of the Chinese government’s economic governance is a basic prerequisite for achieving sustained economic growth.To maintain high-speed and highquality economic development,it is essential to strike a balance between speed and quality and efficiency and fairness of growth, refrain from sacrificing long-term goals for short-term gains, prevent fragmentation of systematic goals, and avoid systemic financial risks.