US Life Expectancy Drops Dramatically Due to COVID-19 美国人预期寿命因新冠疫情大减

蕾切尔·雷特纳文 李怡莹译

U.S. life expectancy just dropped by more than a year—the largest decline in decades—as a result of the sheer number of deaths from COVID-19， according to estimates from a new study.

The study researchers project that， due to the COVID-19 pandemic， the average U.S. life expectancy in 2020 will drop by 1.13 years， bringing it to 77.48 years， according to the study， published Thursday （Jan. 14） in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Thats the largest single-year decline in life expectancy in at least 40 years， and it would bring the countrys life expectancy down its lowest level since 2003， the researchers said.

Life expectancy in the U.S. rarely declines， and when it does， it makes headlines. Most recently， U.S. life expectancy declined by 0.1 years in 2015， 2016 and 2017—a trend that was attributed to rises in “deaths of despair，” including drug overdose and suicide. The new estimated decline due to COVID-19 is 10 times greater.

Whats more， the study showed even larger declines in 2020 among Black and Latino communities， which have been hit particularly hard by the pandemic. Overall， nearly 400，000 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S.， according to the Johns Hopkins virus dashboard.

The study projected life expectancy for Black people will drop by 2.1 years， to 72.78 years， and life expectancy for Latino people will drop by 3.05 years， to 78.77 years. In contrast， the life expectancy for white people is projected to decline by 0.68 years to 77.84 years.

“Our study analyzes the effect of this exceptional number of deaths on life expectancy for the entire nation， as well as the consequences for marginalized groups，” study co-author Theresa Andrasfay， a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Southern California， said in a statement. “The COVID-19 pandemics disproportionate effect on the life expectancy of Black and Latino Americans likely has to do with their greater exposure through their workplace or extended family contacts， in addition to receiving poorer health care， leading to more infections and worse outcomes.”

The researchers estimated U.S. life expectancy at birth using four scenarios—one in which the COVID-19 pandemic didnt happen， and three scenarios that used COVID-19 death projections for 2020 from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

The larger reductions in life expectancy for Black and Latino populations was in part due to “a disproportionate number of deaths at younger ages for these groups，” study co-author Noreen Goldman， a professor of demography and public affairs at Princeton University， said in the statement. “These findings underscore the need for protective behaviors and programs to reduce potential viral exposure among younger individuals who may not perceive themselves to be at high risk.”

Its important to note that life expectancy at birth is an estimate of how long a population of people would live if they were to experience the death rates seen in a given period （in this case， in 2020）， the authors said.

Although COVID-19 vaccines may significantly reduce transmission this year， the researchers dont anticipate life expectancy to immediately bounce back in 2021.

“While the arrival of effective vaccines is hopeful， the U.S. is currently experiencing more daily COVID-19 deaths than at any other point in the pandemic，” Andrasfay said. “We expect there will be lingering effects on life expectancy in 2021.”

一項新的研究估计，由于新型冠状病毒造成人员大量死亡，美国的预期寿命最近下降了一岁多，这是几十年来最大的一次降幅。

根据1月14日发表在《美国科学院院报》上的研究，研究人员预测，由于新型冠状病毒肺炎大流行，2020年美国平均预期寿命下降1.13岁，降至77.48岁。研究人员表示这是至少40年来预期寿命降幅最大的一年，将会使美国的预期寿命降低至2003年以来的最低水平。

美国的预期寿命几乎不下降，一旦下降就登上了头条新闻。近几年，美国的预期寿命在2015年、2016年和2017年都下降了0.1岁——这一趋势归因于“绝望死亡”的上升，其中包括吸毒过量与自杀。新的预估数据显示，新冠肺炎导致的下降幅度比这大10倍。

此外，这项研究显示，2020年，黑人与拉美裔人群体受疫情影响尤为严重，其预期寿命下降幅度更大。总的来说，根据约翰霍普金斯大学病毒仪表盘的数据，美国共有近40万人死于新冠肺炎。

研究预测黑人的预期寿命将会减少2.1岁，降至72.78岁，拉美裔人的预期寿命将会减少3.05岁，降至78.77岁。相比之下，白人的预期寿命将会减少0.68岁，降至77.84岁。

“我们的研究分析了超常死亡人数对整个国家预期寿命的影响，以及给边缘群体带来的后果。”研究报告合著者、南加州大学博士后特蕾莎·安德拉斯法伊在一份声明中说道，“新冠疫情对黑人与拉美裔美国人预期寿命的影响与其人口占比不相称，可能是因为这两类人群的工作场所或者几代同堂的生活方式使其暴露在更大风险中，外加医疗条件更差，导致感染病例更多，后果更为严重。”

研究人员使用四种情景估算了美国人出生时预期寿命——一种情景是新冠肺炎大流行没有发生，另外三种情景使用了健康指标和评估研究所对2020年新冠肺炎死亡率的预测。

对于黑人与拉美裔人来说，预期寿命的大幅度减少某种程度上是由于“在这些群体中年轻人死亡比例过高”，该研究报告的合著者、普林斯顿大学人口学和公共事务教授诺琳·戈德曼在一份声明中说，“这些发现强调了保护措施和计划的必要性，以减少年轻人群中潜在的病毒接触，这些年轻人可能并不觉得自身处在高风险之中。”

研究报告作者称，需要注意的是，出生时预期寿命是人口在特定时期（本文为2020年）的死亡率水平下可能存活的年数。

尽管今年新冠疫苗可能大幅降低病毒的传播，但是研究人员认为预期寿命不会在2021年迅速反弹。

安德拉斯法伊说：“尽管我们有望得到有效的疫苗，但当下美国每日因新冠病毒而死去的人数比以往任何时候都多。”他还补充道：“我们预计新冠肺炎对预期寿命的影响在2021年仍会持续。”