SOLVING A POPULATION PUZZLE

By Yang Ge

How should we regard Chinas demographic changes and related issues at a time of heated discussions about new births hitting a record low， the population about to see negative growth and the aging process accelerating？ How should China address the population issue from the long-term perspective？

Is the decline in birthrate an inevitable result of economic and social development？ To some extent， the answer is yes， at least from the 200-year human history of industrial civilization.

In the 1740s， the First Industrial Revolution was initiated in the United Kingdom， and from the 1870s its population growth rate started to slow down. The process of demographic transition in Western countries followed the spreading track of industrial civilization almost perfectly.

In 1909， French demographer Adolphe Landry， using the population data in West Europe， described the evolution of population from “high mortality rate and high birth rate” to“low mortality rate and low birth rate，”which was the rudiment of the theory of demographic transition. A major point is that driven by economic factors， people will consciously refrain from childbearing in order to maintain a higher standard of living.

At present， the industrial civilization has been spreading all over the world， and all affected countries， without exception， have experienced the process of demographic transition， with their birth rates declining. According to the World Population Prospects issued by the United Nations in 2019， the fertility rates in high-， middle- and lowincome countries stood at 1.67， 2.35 and 4.52 respectively.

The decline in the fertility rate driven by industrialization and modernization is a complex phenomenon. With the wide application of reproduction knowledge and the improvement of medical technologies， the availability of contraception and birth control technologies has greatly improved.

More importantly， changes in production and consumption patterns have weakened the functions of families and reversed the flow of wealth between generations， making it uneconomical and irrational to have more children. The reproduction of population has also shifted from an extensive type pursuing quantity to an intensive one pursuing quality. It has made people opt to limit the size of their families so as to improve the average benefits enjoyed by each family member.

As women get increasing job and education opportunities and their social status rises， they have greater say in terms of how many children their families should have.