Return of Rural Migrants in Southwest China: An Empirical Study Based on 2010 Copies of Questionnaires

Guiyan SUN, Yu WANG

1. Chongqing Academy of Social Sciences, Chongqing 400020, China; 2. Western Branch of China Academy of Urban Planning and Design, Chongqing 401121, China

Abstract [Objectives] To analyze and study the reasons for the return of rural migrants in southwest China, so as to come up with effective policy recommendations. [Methods] Based on the questionnaire survey on the return of rural population in Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, and Yunnan, the characteristics and reasons of the return of rural migrants were analyzed. [Results] It was found that the return of rural population in the southwest China was dominated by middle-aged and young people with higher education level, and mainly from Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, etc., the time of staying outside gradually declined, and after the return, they were more willing to go outside rural areas to continue to engage in the same or similar work, and they showed stronger willingness to flow again. [Conclusions] The reasons for the return of rural migrants are diversified, mainly affected by limited welfare of medical care, education, and housing resulted from high housing price in employment places, household registration limitation, as well as the need of caring the elderly in the hometown, and returning to start an undertaking. In line with the reasons for return of rural migrants in southwest China, it came up with some effective policy recommendations.

Key words Return of rural migrants, Characteristics, Reasons, Southwest China

1 Introduction

In recent years, as China’s economic development has entered a new normal, the principal contradiction in Chinese society has turned into the contradiction between unbalanced and inadequate development and the people’s ever-growing needs for a better life. To this end, China has successively issued a series of development strategies and policies such as new urbanization, green development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and rural revitalization, in order to promote a more balanced and full development of the respective region. In this context, more and more migrant workers choose to return, which has become a new phenomenon and hot spot in the research of rural labor transfer. Foreign scholars started the study of population return in the 1980s, represented by the new labor migration theory proposed by Starketal. They mainly focused on analyzing the motivation or reasons of return from the perspective of reducing relative poverty and diversifying risks[1]. As the return decision-making changes from focusing on individuals to family, community, and social structures, life cycle theory and social network theory are also widely applied to explain the labor return. Dustmannetal. studied the labor return in countries such as Switzerland, Germany, and France. From the relative prices of outflow and inflow areas, personal subjective preferences, and the accumulation of human capital of migrants in the city, they established a life-cycle model that maximizes individual welfare by deciding whether to return or not through the comparison of benefits and costs[2]. Tunali studied the return of the male labors in Turkey and found that people with a higher education level and specialization are more inclined to obtain returns, while older people take advantage of return to avoid risks[3]. According to the findings of Stark, failure to find a good job in cities, higher returns brought from human capital and accumulation in cities, low cost of living in rural areas, a reduction in the sense of poverty due to the comparison of purchasing power levels, and family diversification risks will affect the possibility of return[4]. In the early stage, the domestic scholars mainly analyzed the transient and passive return resulted from the severe urban employment situation in the middle and late 1990s. Since the financial crisis in 2008, the return of rural migrant labor has gradually changed from the initial "passive return" to the present "active return", and this has gradually become a long-standing phenomenon. Most of existing domestic researches analyzed the characteristics of rural labor return from the perspective of urban pull and rural push[5-6], and studied the economic development situation, national and regional development policies from the macro and micro levels, household registration system, and cultural differences individual characteristics such as costs and benefits before and after return, age and education level, and the impact of family characteristics such as marriage and childbirth on return[7-9], the impact of return on rural economic society and the lives of the elderly and children[10-12]. According to theReportontheSurveyofMigrantWorkersin2018, the flow of migrant workers presents a "peacock flying to the southwest" phenomenon. Therefore, using the 2010 copies of effective survey questionnaires on the return of rural migrants from four southwestern provinces and cities (Chongqing, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guizhou) obtained from the cooperation with Baidu, we analyzed the characteristics and reasons of rural migrants returning from southwest China. On the basis, we came up with some policy recommendations for the return of rural migrants at the present stage.

2 Characteristics of rural migrants returning from southwest China

2.1 Return dominated by young and middle-aged people with higher education levelIn general, older people have a stronger willingness to return, and those with a higher education level have a weaker willingness to return. For southwest China, the survey situation is opposite. In the age structure, the average age of the returning population was 31 years old, and the age of the returning population was relatively concentrated, mainly between 20-40 years old, accounting for 83.83% of the surveyed population, especially 25-35 years old accounted for 54.48% of the surveyed population (Fig.1). From the perspective of education level, the education level of return migrants was generally higher, mainly junior college and above, accounting for 51.00% of the surveyed population. In addition, the education level of special secondary/high school accounted for 22.44% (Fig.2 ).

Fig.1 Age structure of return population

2.2 Return population mainly coming from Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, and the migrant work time gradually shorteningAs the economy enters a new normal, the economic slowdown in the east, the western inclination function, and the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy, more and more floating populations choose to return. Judging from the work locations of the most recent migrant workers, the return population mainly came from Guangdong, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, and Beijing, with Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai accounting for 31.00% and 17.46 %, and 14.78%, respectively (Fig.3). In addition, the years of return population staying outside was getting shorter and shorter. As shown in Fig.4, the average years of return population staying outside has shown a decline trend from 2008 to 2018, especially since 2015, the number of migrants has been decreasing year by year.

2.3 Mainly non-agricultural employment such as doing business and service industries before and after the return of the population, showing certain continuity of employmentAs shown in Fig.5, before the return, the rural labors were engaged in a wide range of jobs, mainly concentrated in business-oriented, catering and other service-oriented work, professional and technical work, labor-intensive low-end manufacturing and other non-agricultural work, including catering, business, and other commercial and services accounted for 15.57%, 11.74%, and 11.34% of the surveyed population, respectively. Through comparison of the work before and after the return of the return population, it was found that the vast majority of the work before and after the return of the population had obvious correlation. Most of them continued to work in the same or the same field of work. Among them, the proportion of people who choose to do business increased by 5.02 percentage points, and the proportion of people engaged in other production and transportation equipment operation dropped by 2.79 percentage points. Similarly, the employment nature of the return population also shows that most of them continue to engage in non-agricultural work. According to the survey, the proportion of the two types of population who were only engaged in non-agricultural work and mainly engaged in non-agricultural work accounted for 43.08% and 35.02%, respectively; and only few people were only or mainly engaged in agricultural work. However, it should not be ignored that nearly 8% of the population still had no fixed occupations or work before and after the return.

Fig.4 Years of return population staying outside in 2008-2018

Note: 1. Transportation; 2. No fixed occupation; 3. Other production and transportation equipment operators and related personnel; 4. Other business and service personnel; 5. Others; 6. Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and water conservancy production personnel; 7. Express delivery; 8. Doing business; 9. Construction; 10. Housekeeping; 11. Heads of state organs, party organizations, enterprises and institutions; 12. Civil servants, clerks and related personnel; 13. Catering; 14. Cleaning; 15. Security.

2.4 Return population tending to go to other places other than rural areas within the province (city), and the reflow trend being obviousAmong the return population, only a few chose to return to the rural areas, and the majority of the population chose to go outside the rural areas, especially the provincial capital cities/municipalities, county towns,etc., which provides a rich labor force for the development of cities and towns, and thus promotes the urbanization development of the population. In terms of the follow-up development of the return population, the willingness to flow again was strong, but most of them wanted to stay in their province (city) and were not very willing to go to other provinces (cities). According to statistics, nearly one-half of the return population chose the present employment locations, and would continue to stay in prefecture-level cities/prefectures, rural areas, county towns, townships, and provincial capital cities/municipalities in the future, accounting for 51.75%, 40.43%, 79.69%, 50.48%, 67.53% and respective types. In addition, the future trends of population mobility mainly include prefecture-level cities/prefectures → counties, prefecture-level cities/prefectures → provincial capitals/municipalities, rural areas → townships and villages → counties, provincial capitals/municipalities → counties → provincial capitals/municipalities, towns → counties,etc. In general, the population still tends to migrate to higher-ranking areas within the provinces (cities).

3 Reasons of rural migrants returning from southwest China

3.1 Push of urban areasAs China enters the new normal, the economic growth rate has gradually slowed down, especially in the eastern coastal areas, such as Guangdong, Shanghai, and Zhejiang, their growth rate dropped from 12.4%, 10.3%, and 11.9% in 2010 to 6.8%, 6.6%, and 7.1% in 2018, respectively. In this context, China has successively issuedGuidingOpinionsonAcceleratingtheDevelopmentofProducerServicesandPromotingtheAdjustmentandUpgradeofIndustrialStructure(Guo Fa[2014]No.26), andSeveralOpinionsonDeepeningtheReformoftheSystemtoAcceleratetheImplementationofInnovationDrivenDevelopmentStrategy(Zhong Fa[2015]N0.8), to promote the transformation and upgrading of enterprises and accelerate the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries. Besides, with the increasingly fierce trade war between China and the United States, the United States imposed tariffs on household appliances, textiles and clothing, toys, shoes, hats, furniture, lamps and other products, which led to a significant decline in exports and investment. However, the increase in consumption fails to offset the pressure of decline in exports and investment. In addition to difficulties of private enterprises in financing, heavy tax burdens, increases in rents of factories and houses caused by rising prices of land and production factors, as well as "difficult recruitment and high recruitment costs" caused by rising wages of workers, some private enterprises are closed or go bankrupt or close to bankruptcy, and the employment situation is very severe.

Furthermore, the restrictions of the household registration system and the accompanying welfare guarantee system have increased the living expenses and employment pressure of living and employment of the return population in urban areas, and have affected their inability to enjoy public services and social welfare such as child education, health care, and labor rights protection equivalent to those with normal household registration. What’s more, the housing price in the employment area is too high. For example, the average residential sales prices in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong in 2017 were 22 300, 9 931, 21 501, 7 177, 10 755, 8 565, and 9 495 yuan/m2, respectively. By comparison, the average sales prices of houses in Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, and Yunnan were 5 012, 5 034, 3 629, and 4 800 yuan/m2, respectively. The higher housing price in the employment area has restricted the purchase of housing. The housing before population return is mainly renting (flat sharing, entire apartment renting), unit arranged housing,etc., separately accounting for 54.48% and 27.26% of the surveyed population. From Fig.6, it can be seen that the population in the southwest China choosing to leave the employment area is influenced by many factors, including too high local house price, restrictions on household registration due to household registration limitations, no sense of belonging due to difficulties in integrating into local life, high intensity of work outside leading to the lack of recreation, not easy to find an ideal job/not easy to do business due to bad economic situation, not want to lead a wandering life after experiencing the life in big cities, unaccustomed to life outside the home and missing home, and severe air pollution in outside places, accounting for 69.55%, 40.30%, 36.77%, 32.69%, 51.64%, 26.05%, 8.41%, and 5.62% of the surveyed population, and some factors are overlapping.

Note: 1. Too high local house price; 2. Restrictions on education and household registration due to household registration limitations; 3. No sense of belonging due to difficulties in integrating into local life; 4. High intensity of work outside leading to the lack of recreation; 5. Not easy to find an ideal job/not easy to do business; 6. Not want to lead a wandering life; 7. Unaccustomed to life outside the home; 8. Others.

3.2 Pull of rural areasIn order to promote the development of the industry and rural economy in the central and western regions, China has successively issued theGuidingOpinionsoftheStateCouncilonCentralandWesternRegions’UndertakingofIndustrialTransfer(Guo Fa[2010]No.28), andSeveralOpinionsontheIn-depthImplementationoftheWesternDevelopmentStrategy(Zhongfa[2010]No.11),GuidingOpinionsoftheStateCouncilonPromotingRevitalizationofRuralIndustries(Guo Fa[2019]No.12), and so on, which have driven the shift of labor and land-intensive industries from coastal regions to the central and western areas, and promoted the pace of rural construction. China also promulgated and implemented a series of preferential and favorable policies for rural areas, such as education, and issued Opinions on Regulating the Layout Adjustment of Rural Compulsory Education Schools (Guo Ban Fa[2012]No.48), andOpinionsonStrengtheningtheConstructionofSmall-scaleRuralSchoolsandBoardingSchoolsinVillagesandTowns(Guo Ban Fa[2018]No.27). In terms of medical care, it issuedGuidingOpinionsonPromotingtheConstructionandDevelopmentoftheMedicalAssociations(Guo Ban Fa[2017]No.32). Governments of southwest China also issued a number of opinions to attract the population return, such as Sichuan issuedImplementationOpinionsonSupportingMigrantWorkersandFarmerEntrepreneurstoReturntotheirHometownsforStartinganUndertaking(Chuan Ban Fa[2015]No.73), and Yunnan issuedImplementationOpinionsonSupportingMigrantWorkersandOtherPersonstoReturntoTheirHometownstoStartanUndertaking(Yun Zheng Ban Fa[2015]No.60), which increase the employment opportunities and improve the employment environment, and attract a large number of migrants to return. From Fig.7, it can be seen that the main reasons why migrants of southwest China return to their hometown include returning home and starting an undertaking (31.69%), no special ability/skill (17.36%), the need to take care of children (25.42%), the need to take care of the elderly (41.84%), more employment opportunities in hometown (18.76%), poor health/too old age (9.90%), separation from their families (25.47%), low cost of living in hometown (12.44%), insufficient labor force at home, good natural environment of the hometown (12.29%), marriage and childbirth (9.05%), and the need to take care of the land. Most of the migrant workers are young people who need to take care of the elderly and children. After returning, they can end the separation from their families. They can also take care of the elderly and children nearby, and make up for the lack of cultivated land caused by the lack of labor in their families. In particular, marriage and childbirth increase the living expenses of families to a certain extent and increase the possibility of women returning to hometown, which will cause a temporary population return, but the probability of going out later is still greater. Moreover, compared with the severe haze in the eastern coastal area, the air quality in southwest China is relatively good.

Finally, apart from providing more employment opportunities for the return population, excellent natural environment, and the ability to take care of the elderly and children, the increase in income after return are also important factors. From Fig.8, in terms of annual family income, the income of the return population is rising on the whole. Among them, the population with annual total income of 100 000 yuan and above has increased by 7.86 percentage points after the return, especially the population with annual total income of 200 000 yuan and above rose from 9.70% before the return to 15.07% after the return. The increase in income and the low cost of living in the hometown reduce the dependence on migrant working.

4 Recommendations for southwest China to deal with the return of rural migrants

4.1 Strengthening support for employment and undertaking starting of return populationIt is recommended to make a proper plan and guide the undertaking starting of the return population, establish an undertaking-starting risk fund, start-up funds, establish an incubation center or start-up park for return population, and provide assistance in business design, business registration, tax incentives,etc. to create a favorable return investment environment. In the context of the rapid development of the "Internet+", it is recommended to establish a return employment information platform, and encourage return migrants to make full use of network channels, open Taobao, Pinduoduo shops, rural e-commerce service centers, and create enterprises,etc., or use land, house, government financial funds as shares to drive return employment, increase income,etc., and provide subsidies for the achievements. Besides, for business starting of return population, it is recommended to issue corresponding preferential tax policies and adopt government guarantees to guide financial institutions to open green channels for business starting of return population, simplify the approval process, and reduce the loan interest and loan period,etc., to make them get more financial support.

4.2 Enhancing vocational education and training for return populationAlthough the education level of the return population is relatively high, considering that this questionnaire survey is mainly filled out online, it limits the respondents to a certain extent and raises the education level. In practice, it is necessary to continue to increase the publicity of the local return employment and entrepreneurship environment, vocational education and training, and related policies, enhance the awareness of return laborers to receive training. Besides, in line with the difficulties in employment direction, technology, and funds encountered in the process of employment and business starting, it is recommended to provide guidance. In addition, government training and public bidding can be used to determine the training unit. Furthermore, it is recommended to strengthen the supervision and management of vocational training units or institutions to ensure that the training of return population can obtain effective results.

4.3 Strengthening and improving the management of household registration, education, and housingIn order to ensure the retention of people, it is necessary to continue to loosen the household registration system in response to the trend of re-flow of return people, and adopt the one-stop process of household registration migration and online approval within the province (city). Besides, it is necessary to reduce or eliminate the social welfare policies attached to the household registration system, such as medical care, housing, endowment, and education for the return population, rationally arrange relatively scattered high-quality educational resources. In addition, it is recommended to relax the purchase conditions of affordable and welfare housing, and provide certain support or subsidies. For the industrial housing annexed to the industrial park, it is necessary to control reasonable prices to meet the basic education and housing needs of return families, so as to improve their employment conditions and environment.