Slower But Steady

By Lan Xinzhen

On October 18， Chinas National Bureau of Statistics（NBS） released the economic data for the first three quarters of 2019. It showed that the economy grew 6.4 percent in the fi rst quarter， 6.2 percent in the second and 6 percent in the third.

The deceleration may trigger some global concern， since China is the worlds second largest economy and a pillar of free trade. If its economic growth slows down， the global economic growth is bound to be affected.

However， the worry is needless because despite slowing down， the growth rate is still within a reasonable range， between the 6-6.5 percent target set by the Chinese Government at the beginning of the year， and still one of the highest growth rates in the world and a strong driving force for world economic growth.

If the current economic scenario continues， the Chinese economy will not face heavier downward pressures in the fourth quarter， added to it the positive signs in recent China-U.S. trade negotiations. The NBS assertion that the economy is running smoothly is therefore reliable.

Consumption， investment as well as import and export are the three engines of Chinas growth and an analysis of the three showed Chinas capability to keep its growth stable.

In the three quarters， consumptions contribution to economic growth stood at 60.5 percent， playing the most important role.

Three positive factors have been boosting Chinas consumption growth. First， Chinese incomes are growing. In the fi rst three quarters， the per-capita disposable income grew at a rate of 6.1 percent， almost at the same pace as economic growth. This years positive employment scenario means the per-capita disposable income growth will continue.

Second， Chinas service sector is growing stronger， with service consumption growth surpassing 10 percent， becoming a major force in boosting consumption.

Third， material consumption is also going up. In the fi rst three quarters， the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods registered 8.2 percent， much higher than the economic growth rate. Thanks to the shopping sprees before the New Year and Spring Festival， the fourth quarter always sees the most robust consumption growth.

Furthermore， the Chinese consumption capacity is growing， due to the improved consumption environment and rising social security.