Research on the Impact of China

摘 要： Compared with the developed countries that have entered an aging society， the characteristics of China's aging population have the characteristics of large base， rapid growth， unpopulated predecessors and large proportion of elderly disabled. We can consider that aging can promote the life insurance demand from the aspects of life，  insurance can pass on certain risks such as old-age care and medical care， as well as alleviating the pressure on government fiscal expenditure.

關键词：population aging; life insurance demand; impact

1 Introduction

Since China officially resumed its life insurance business in 1982， the life insurance industry has developed rapidly and its position in the insurance industry and the entire national economy has increased. China has entered an aging society since the beginning of the 21st century. Population aging as a current and future population development trend in China is an important background for China's macro economy and an important factor affecting the development of the life insurance industry.

2 Overview of relevant economic theory

2.1 Population ageing

For the definition of population aging， the standards published by the United Nations are now widely used， that is， a country or region with a population of 60 years and over accounts for 10% of the total population or a population aged 65 and over accounts for 7% of the total population. This is the result of the higher economic level of developed countries， the improvement of people's living standards， and the continuous improvement of the social medical security system.

2.2 Life insurance needs

Life insurance demand is a combination of “life insurance” and “demand”. Life insurance is based on the life expectancy of a person. Economics defines demand as the quantity of goods that consumers are willing and able to purchase at a given price level for a certain period of time. From this， it can be concluded that the life insurance demand is the number of life insurance products that the policyholder is willing and able to pay for a certain insurance rate.

3 The impact of population aging on life insurance demand

To study the impact of China's aging population on life insurance demand， we can first analyze Japan as an example. Since the basic characteristics of the Japanese life insurance market are similar to those of China， the former provides deliberate experience and reference for the development of the latter.

3.1 The impact of Japan's aging population on life insurance demand

Japans natural population growth rate shows a certain correlation with life insurance premium income. Among them， the increasingly serious problem of “fertility reduction and aging” has led to a gradual shrinkage of life-saving life insurance products and a decline in sales. However， while the problem of aging in Japan has brought crisis to the life insurance market， it has also created some development opportunities for the Japanese life insurance industry. In recent years， middle-aged and elderly people have become important target markets for personal annuity products. At present， all major life insurance companies in Japan want to seize new market opportunities， focus on analyzing and researching the needs of the elderly in terms of economy and health， and vigorously develop personal annuity products and medical insurance products to cover the insufficient parts of public health insurance and public care insurance.

3.2 The impact of China's aging population on life insurance demand

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China， as of the end of 2017， China's population aged 65 and over was 158.31 million， accounting for 11.4% of the total population. The proportion of the elderly population in China is seriously exceeded， and the scale of China's aging population will continue to increase over a long period of time.

On the one hand， at this stage， it is difficult for China's lower-level social insurance to fully cover the elderly population. According to statistics， there are currently nearly 100 million elderly people in China who have not received state institutional arrangements. They rely on their children to support their old age， or rely on self-accumulation to meet their own pension needs. The existence of these problems has spurred people's awareness of the future of old-age security and medical security， and more and more people will supplement commercial insurance as a higher level of protection， meet the needs of future pensions and medical expenditures， and ensure that the elderly can maintain their existing lives. On the other hand， the particularity of China's aging population will also have an impact on the macro economy. As a developing country with a fast aging rate and a wealthy old age， the elderly population with disability is a large proportion， and there is still an imbalance in the construction of the social security system. The basic old-age and medical security system has a limited level of protection. The demand for endowment insurance and medical security has increased the interests of the people， and the continuous increase in financial input may affect the sustainability of economic development. The impact of population aging on the macro economy is reflected in production， consumption， investment， etc.， and the impact on life insurance demand is also huge.

References

[1] Pan Junchang， Yang Jun. Analysis of the influencing factors of life insurance demand in China [J]. Economic Management. 2010， （2）： 131-137.

[2] Li Vegetable Dark. Analysis of China's life insurance needs from economic factors [J]. Southwest Finance. 2009， （1）： 59-60.

[3]ZHANG Qingjun， ZHAI Liangliang， SU Mingzheng. Research on the Influence of Population Aging on Life Insurance Demand： An Empirical Analysis Based on Data from Liaoning Province[J]. Population and Economy. 2013， （3）： 97-103.

作者簡介：

程泽莅（ 1996-），男，汉族，四川成都，本科，保险学.